SpiralGrinder Ultimate ( SGU ) is a unique type of Trading System dedicated for leverage-trading BTC on Bitmex platform. Since it's highly customized to give statistically reliable signals based exclusively on BTC /USD Perpetual Swaps BITMEX chart BITMEX:XBTUSD , using it with other BTC charts will give usable, but less reliable signals!
SpiralGrinder’s Ultimate first iteration was SpiralSwinger V1 indicator released in march 2019, since then much has been changed, different algos were developed and then thrown into the bin, until after 6 months of intensive work current version was developed, backtested on XBT/USD Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract chart from Bitmex exchange on whole chart history from late 2015 until January 2020, on these timeframes – 1d, 12h, 8h, 6h, 4h, 3h, 2h, 90m, 1h.
Indicator algo is based on idea of price being a so called "fractal" - when same price action patterns occur over and over from time to time on different timeframes be it 1D, 4h, 1h or even 15m! Every time a particular timeframe (TF) has suitable and price action is exhibiting wave structure with distinct highs and lows there will be a situations when high probability trade setups are possible. To predict those recurrent situations SGU tracks more than 30 parameters (godmode oscillator and some it’s experimental derivatives, coefficients, some time-based variables, ATR-based , regular divergences… etc) comparing them against each other, so when “all stars are aligned” based on statistical model built into its algo and when price has enough potential to move in particular direction reaching some measured move target a SIGNAL to enter position is generated.
Theoretical True Winrate of this indicator is around 60%, while practical is somewhat under 50%. True Winrate is a percentage of trades that reached PREDICTED target be it 1R or 20R prediction, instead of just being a common winrate (used by most traders) - percentage of all profitable trades even though many of them didn’t reach initially predicted targets. True WinRate is tied to a signal generating algo implemented in SGU and cannot be changed unless a new more sophisticated algo is found by the developer of this indicator and is implemented in future updates!
Main User Interface of SGU consists of many elements that are developed to help manage trades more efficiently without any emotional impact on decision making process. Apart from obvious Long/Short signals there are also predicted targets that should be hit with some probability for every given signal, suggested stop loss levels corresponding to predicted RR. There are 4 ATR-based that help determine trend bias on current timeframe and to set intermediate take profit points on the way toward target, also there are indicators of regular divergences to show us weakness during uptrends and downtrends, also there are special warnings included when price closes behind particularly important ATR line with strength enough to continue further it’s movement in initial direction. Also there are 2 candle color-based systems available: one of monitoring how overbought or oversold is price on current TF, second is created to tell us overall trend sentiment - how strong is movement of price in particular direction.
Since price could move in the same fashion during prolonged periods of time there could be a particular TF when signals will be absent till price and oscillator readings doesn’t change its character and become favorable (become synchronized with price action) for signals to be generated. That’s why this indicator should be monitored on multiple TFs at once – you’ll never know on which TF next signal will appear. There will be a multiple signals going on parallel at the SAME TIME, simultaneously in DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS: for example swing long trade based on signal from 12h TF, while having a scalp short at the same time based on 1h chart. Exploring this kind of optimized multi-tasking could be done only by splitting bankroll on multiple accounts registered on Bitmex platform.
Suggested timeframes to monitor for potential signals are empirically chosen that their round multiples should give 24H or 1440m=(24h x 60m) : 12h x 2 = 24h, 3h x 8 = 24h, 144m x 10 = 1440m=24h.
Therefore main timeframes are: 1D, 12h, 8h, 6h, 4h, 3h, 2h, 90m and 1h.
Additional timeframes to watch are: 288m, 144m, and 72m.
Timeframes under 1h aren’t tested yet, but could be traded with additional caution: 45m, 36m and 30m.
To track effectively all signals generated by SGU one should have at least PRO subscription plan paid on TradingView as this allows to use non-standard timeframes and maximum of 10 server-side alerts on price/indicators necessary to work with this indicator.
To do in near future: add weighted with custom settings as an additional confluence in algo to increase average win rate of signals.
Attention! Past performance of this indicator is not indicative of future results!
For those interested to dig deeper into logic behind using SGU a full 20-page pdf user manual is available for download here: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1ZzUjoF19s1Zkl16PbUbddzv2zNwsV1H9
To gain free test access just write me a DM .
1. Added new type of signal - INVALIDATION that predicts possible signal failure and allows to exit trade at a better price than SL.
2. Fixed bug in Position Size Helper not displaying correct RR/SL/Position for non-BTC assets.
3. Algo optimization.
4. Cosmetic changes and fixes.
5. User Manual updated to v1.1
1. New signal generating algo is introduced. More that 36 parameters per signal are tracked to generate trade setups.
2. Old "letter" (PB, C, R, H) signal naming was replaced with "numbers" (1,2,3) which correspond to different predicted winrates, where "1" Premium signal => high winrate signal , "2" Regular => normal winrate, "3" Risky => low winrate.
3. Independent targets are now being used for each signal. There could be high winrate signals with small targets, or low winrate signals with extended targets or vice versa...
4. Updated Position sizing calculator now has options to to take into account market and limit order fees paid by user, option to display correct position size for inverse (coin marginated) assets.
5. Added option to change number of signals generated by algo which acts as sensitivity option
6. Added option to display Trend Sentiment and Oversold/Overbought levels also via additional diamond shaped labels below candles.
7. Added option to warn us when price is overextended on particular TF which could lead to sudden price reversal.
8. Multiple cosmetic changes and bug fixes.
2. Added special experimental algo for trading spot ALTS which could be also used as an alternative algo for BTC trading on any TF possible down to 1m!
3. Added Ichimoku cloud with "crypto settings" (20/30/60/30) and two ALMA moving averages of special fibo lengths (233 and 932) for additional confluence when generating high quality signals.
4. Added special timer for tracking trade duration based on assumption that small target trades should last around 20 candles, while bigger target trades should last around 40 candles on time frame signal was received.
5. Added additional Candle/Symbol coloring option - Average Oversold/Overbought Levels that corresponds better "feeling" when market is overextended on both sides.
6. Updated Force Take Profit Warning - now it works better when predicting sudden V-Reversals during pumps or dumps.
7. Bugfix in fee and position sizing calculator.
8. Many other bug fixes and small additions...
1. Improved Take Profit/V-Reversal Warnings.
2. Fixed Position Calculation bugs.
3. Added separate alerts for Ichimoku Signals
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