FADE GIGA CANDLE STRAT

# 🔥 FADE GIGA CANDLE STRATEGY

## Overview
The **Fade Giga Candle Strategy** is a contrarian trading indicator designed to identify extreme price movements (called "Giga Candles") and predict mean reversion opportunities. This strategy is specifically optimized for Polymarket's 15-minute crypto prediction markets (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP) but can be applied to any timeframe.

**Core Concept:** When price makes an unusually large move with extreme RSI and high volume, it often reverses in the next period. This indicator detects those moments and signals to "fade" (bet against) the move.

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## 📊 What Does It Do?

### Signal Generation
- **FADE BEARISH (📉)**: Detects massive green candles → Predicts price will go DOWN next
- **FADE BULLISH (📈)**: Detects massive red candles → Predicts price will go UP next

### Real-Time Stats
- Win Rate tracking
- Total Return calculation
- Expected Value (EV) analysis
- Breakeven threshold display (57.14% for 75% win / 100% loss structure)

### Visual Alerts
- Chart labels showing predictions
- Background highlighting on signal candles
- Stats table in top-right corner
- RSI indicator with overbought/oversold zones

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## ⚙️ How It Works

### 1. Giga Candle Detection
The indicator analyzes the last 500 candles and identifies "Giga Candles" based on:
- **Body Size Percentile** (default 93rd): Only the top 7% largest candles qualify
- **Minimum Body %** (default 0.5%): Filters out noise on small moves

### 2. Confirmation Filters
Before generating a signal, the indicator checks:

**RSI Filter (Optional)**
- RSI must be ≥70 (overbought) OR ≤30 (oversold)
- Indicates price is at an extreme level

**Volume Filter (Optional)**
- Current volume must be ≥1.5x the 20-period average
- Confirms the move has conviction

### 3. Fade Logic
```
IF Giga Green Candle + RSI Extreme + High Volume
→ FADE BEARISH (predict DOWN)

IF Giga Red Candle + RSI Extreme + High Volume
→ FADE BULLISH (predict UP)
```

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## 🎛️ Settings & Parameters

### Giga Candle Detection
| Parameter | Default | Range | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------|-------------|
| **Giga Candle Percentile** | 93.0 | 80-99 | Top X% of candles by body size. 93 = only top 7% qualify as "giga" |
| **Min Body % (Safety)** | 0.5 | 0.1-2.0 | Minimum body size as % of price. Prevents false signals on low volatility |

### RSI Filter
| Parameter | Default | Range | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------|-------------|
| **Use RSI Filter** | ON | ON/OFF | Require RSI to be extreme before signaling |
| **RSI Length** | 14 | 5-50 | Period for RSI calculation |
| **RSI Overbought** | 70 | 60-85 | Threshold for overbought condition |
| **RSI Oversold** | 30 | 15-40 | Threshold for oversold condition |

### Volume Filter
| Parameter | Default | Range | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------|-------------|
| **Use Volume Filter** | ON | ON/OFF | Require high volume before signaling |
| **Volume SMA Length** | 20 | 10-50 | Period for average volume calculation |
| **Volume Multiplier** | 1.5 | 1.0-3.0 | Current volume must be X times the average |

### Display Options
- **Show Signal Labels**: Display prediction labels on chart
- **Highlight Signal Candles**: Background color on signal bars
- **Show Stats Table**: Performance statistics in top-right
- **Enable Alerts**: Push notifications when signals occur

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## 🚀 How to Use

### For Polymarket Trading (Recommended)
1. **Set timeframe to 15 minutes** (matches Polymarket market duration)
2. **Apply to BTC, ETH, SOL, or XRP charts**
3. **Wait for signal:**
- 📉 FADE BEARISH → Buy "DOWN" on Polymarket
- 📈 FADE BULLISH → Buy "UP" on Polymarket
4. **Hold until market resolves** (15 minutes)
5. **Track your performance** using the stats table

### For Regular Trading
1. Use on any liquid crypto market
2. When signal appears, consider entering a mean-reversion trade
3. Set stop-loss at 100% of entry (built into expected value calculation)
4. Take profit at 75% gain (matches the 57.14% breakeven math)

### Understanding the Stats Table

**Win Rate**: Your prediction accuracy percentage
- **Target: >57.14%** (breakeven for 75% win / 100% loss structure)
- Green if profitable, red if unprofitable

**Expected Value (EV)**: Average % return per trade
- **Positive EV** = Strategy is profitable long-term
- **Negative EV** = Strategy is losing long-term
- Formula: `(WinRate% × 75) - (LossRate% × 100)`

**Total Return**: Cumulative % gain/loss across all signals

---

## 📈 Interpretation Guide

### Strong Signals
✅ Large giga candle (top 3-5%)
✅ RSI >75 or <25 (very extreme)
✅ Volume >2x average
✅ Signal appears after sustained trend
✅ Win rate >60% in recent trades

### Weak Signals (Consider Skipping)
⚠️ Borderline giga candle (barely above threshold)
⚠️ RSI only slightly extreme (71 or 29)
⚠️ Volume just meets minimum (1.5x)
⚠️ Signal appears during choppy/sideways market
⚠️ Win rate <50% in recent trades

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## 💡 Pro Tips

### 1. Timeframe Matters
- **15-min**: Best for Polymarket, captures intraday exhaustion
- **1-hour**: Better for swing trading
- **5-min**: Too noisy, not recommended

### 2. Market Context
- Works best in **trending markets** that overextend
- Less effective in **tight ranges** (consolidation)
- Avoid during **low liquidity** hours (weekends, holidays)

### 3. Filter Tuning
**More Aggressive (More Signals)**
- Lower Giga Percentile (90th)
- Disable RSI filter
- Lower volume multiplier (1.2x)

**More Conservative (Fewer, Higher Quality)**
- Raise Giga Percentile (95th)
- Tighter RSI thresholds (75/25)
- Higher volume multiplier (2.0x)

### 4. Bankroll Management
- **Never bet >5% of capital** on a single signal
- Maintain 20+ bet bankroll minimum
- Use Kelly Criterion: `Bet% = (WinRate - LossRate) / 2`
- Example: 60% win rate → Bet ~10% of bankroll

### 5. Track Your Performance
- Monitor the stats table actively
- If win rate drops below 55% for 20+ trades, **stop trading**
- If EV goes negative, **reassess filters or market conditions**
- Keep a trading journal outside the indicator

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## ⚠️ Risk Disclosure

### Important Warnings
1. **Past performance ≠ future results**: Backtested win rates may not hold in live trading
2. **Market conditions change**: Strategy may stop working if market dynamics shift
3. **Gambler's ruin risk**: Even profitable strategies can lose multiple trades in a row
4. **Polymarket specific**:
- Carries smart contract risk
- Subject to liquidity constraints
- Markets can resolve unexpectedly
5. **Not financial advice**: This is an educational tool, not a recommendation to trade

### Best Practices
- Start with **small position sizes** to test
- Track at least **50 signals** before evaluating performance
- Consider **paper trading** first (simulated trades)
- Never trade with money you can't afford to lose
- Understand the **57.14% breakeven** requirement

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## 🔧 Troubleshooting

### "No signals appearing"
- Check if filters are too strict (try disabling RSI/Volume filters temporarily)
- Reduce Giga Percentile to 90th
- Ensure sufficient chart history loaded (>500 candles)

### "Too many signals"
- Increase Giga Percentile to 95th
- Enable both RSI and Volume filters
- Raise volume multiplier to 2.0x

### "Win rate seems low"
- Check if you're trading during low liquidity periods
- Verify you're using 15-min timeframe for Polymarket
- Consider market is in tight consolidation (strategy works best in trends)

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## 📚 Technical Details

### Calculations
- **Body Size**: `|close - open|`
- **Body %**: `(bodySize / open) × 100`
- **Giga Threshold**: `percentile_nearest_rank(last 500 candles, 93rd)`
- **RSI**: Standard 14-period RSI
- **Volume Ratio**: `current_volume / SMA(volume, 20)`

### Performance Tracking
- Checks if previous signal was correct after 1 bar
- Win = +75% to total return
- Loss = -100% to total return
- Win Rate = `(correct_predictions / total_signals) × 100`

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## 🎯 Ideal Use Cases

### ✅ Perfect For:
- Polymarket 15-minute crypto prediction markets
- Mean-reversion trading on liquid crypto pairs
- Contrarian traders who fade extremes
- Systematic traders who follow rules-based signals

### ❌ Not Ideal For:
- Trend-following strategies (this is contrarian)
- Low volatility assets (needs large moves)
- Illiquid markets (won't have "giga" candles)
- Sub-5-minute scalping (too much noise)

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## 📞 Support & Updates

**Version**: 6.0
**Last Updated**: January 2025
**Compatible With**: TradingView Pine Script v6

### Feedback Welcome
If you find this indicator useful or have suggestions for improvement, please:
- ⭐ Leave a rating
- 💬 Comment with your results
- 🚀 Share your settings for different markets

**Good luck, and trade responsibly!** 🎯

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## Quick Start Checklist
- [ ] Set timeframe to 15 minutes
- [ ] Load BTC, ETH, SOL, or XRP chart
- [ ] Verify stats table shows in top-right
- [ ] Enable alerts for signal notifications
- [ ] Start with paper trading to validate
- [ ] Track at least 20 signals before going live
- [ ] Never bet more than 5% of bankroll per trade
- [ ] Monitor win rate and stop if <55%

**Remember: The goal is >57.14% win rate for profitability!**