Fukuiz Octa-EMA + Ichimoku (Strategy)This strategy is based EMA of 8 different period and Ichimoku Cloud which works better in 1hr 4hr and daily time frame.
#A brief introduction to Ichimoku #
The Ichimoku Cloud is a collection of technical indicators that show support and resistance levels, as well as momentum and trend direction. It does this by taking multiple averages and plotting them on a chart. It also uses these figures to compute a “cloud” that attempts to forecast where the price may find support or resistance in the future.
#A brief introduction to EMA#
An exponential moving average ( EMA ) is a type of moving average (MA) that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points. The exponential moving average is also referred to as the exponentially weighted moving average . An exponentially weighted moving average reacts more significantly to recent price changes than a simple moving average ( SMA ), which applies an equal weight to all observations in the period.
#How to use#
The strategy will give entry points itself, you can monitor and take profit manually(recommended), or you can use the exit setup.
EMA (Color) = Bullish trend
EMA (Gray) = Bearish trend
#Condition#
Buy = All Ema (color) above the cloud.
SELL= All Ema turn to gray color.
BTCUSD
Saturday Strategy BTC By KziI take the hypothèse that saturday is the most stable day of the week because, no SP500, no fed announcement and no weekly closure.
My Strategy is very simple:
Take the friday color (Red = Short // Green = Long)
Then open at the friday close price
Take a small pourcentage (1 or 2 %) then close.
What ever close on midnight.
Work Well on the 1h chart.
The Yellow is the saturday.
Maybe we can add the monthly close information to avoid opening trade on saturday if we are at this event.
Enjoy and give me your comment.
Kzi
Chanu Delta RSI StrategyThis strategy is built on the Chanu Delta RSI , which indicates the strength of the Bitcoin market. The problem with the previous Chanu Delta Strategy was that it was simply based on the price difference between the two Bitcoin markets, so there was no universality. However, this new Chanu Delta RSI strategy solves the problem by introducing an RSI that compares the price difference trend.
When the Chanu Delta RSI hits “Bull Level” and “Bear Level” and closes the candle, long and short signals are triggered respectively. The example shown on the screen is a default setting optimized for a 4-hour candlestick strategy based on the Bybit BTCUSDT futures market. You can use it by adjusting the setting value and modifying it to suit you.
This strategy is selectable from both reference and large amplitude BTCUSD markets in order to enable fine backtesting. I recommend using BYBIT:BTCUSDT for the reference market and COINBASE:BTCUSD for the large amplitude market.
(Note) Using the "Chanu Delta RSI" to know the current indicator value in real time, it is convenient to predict the signal of the strategy.
(Note) Because the Chanu Delta RSI represents the price difference based on the Bybit BTCUSDT futures market, backtesting is possible from March 2020.
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이 전략은 비트코인 시장의 강점을 나타내는 Chanu Delta RSI를 기반으로 합니다. 기존 Chanu Delta 전략의 문제점은 단순히 두 비트코인 시장의 가격차를 기준으로 하여 보편성이 없었다는 점이다. 하지만 이번 새로운 Chanu Delta RSI 전략은 가격차이 추세를 비교하는 RSI를 도입해 문제를 해결했습니다.
Chanu Delta RSI가 "Bull Level"과 "Bear Level"에 도달하고 봉마감하면 롱, 숏 신호가 각각 트리거됩니다. 화면에 보이는 예시는 Bybit BTCUSDT 선물 시장을 기반으로 한 4시간 캔들스틱 전략에 최적화된 기본 설정입니다. 설정값을 조정하여 자신에게 맞게 수정하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
이 전략은 정밀한 백테스팅을 가능하게 하기 위해 참조 및 큰 진폭 BTCUSD 시장에서 모두 선택할 수 있습니다. 참조 시장에는 BYBIT:BTCUSDT를 사용하고 큰 진폭 시장에는 COINBASE:BTCUSD를 사용하는 것이 좋습니다.
(주) "Chanu Delta RSI"를 이용하여 현재 지표 값을 실시간으로 알 수 있어 전략의 시그널을 예측하는데 편리합니다.
(주) Chanu Delta RSI는 바이비트 BTCUSDT 선물시장을 기준으로 가격차이를 나타내므로 2020년 3월부터 백테스팅이 가능합니다.
BTC Cap Dominance RSI StrategyThis strategy is based on the BTC Cap Dominance RSI indicator, which is a combination of the RSI of Bitcoin Market Cap and the RSI of Bitcoin Dominance. The concept of this strategy is to get a good grasp of the bitcoin market flow by combining bitcoin dominance as well as bitcoin market cap.
BTC Cap Dominance (BCD) RSI is defined as:
BCD RSI = (BTC Cap RSI + BTC Dominance RSI) / 2
Case 1 (Bull market):
Both Cap RSI and Dominance RSI values are high
Case 2 (Neutral market):
Cap RSI is high but Dominance RSI is low
Cap RSI is low but Dominance RSI is high
Case 3 (Bear market):
Both Cap RSI and Dominance RSI values are low
When the BCD RSI value closes the candle above the Bull level, it triggers a long signal and when the value closes below the Bear level, it triggers a short signal.
(Note) Please note that TradingView's market cap symbols (CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL and CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2) started in January 2020, so strategy backtesting is possible from this point on.
(Note) Since the real-time BCD RSI value does not come out with this strategy, it is recommended to use it together because the current value can be known and the long-short signal can be predicted in advance by using a separate BCD RSI Index together.
If "Use Combination of dominance RSI ?" is not checked in addition to the recommended default value of the strategy, the recommended values are Length (14), Bull level (74), Bear level (25).
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이 전략은 비트코인 시가총액의 RSI와 비트코인 도미넌스 RSI를 조합하여 만든 BTC Cap Dominance RSI 지표를 기반으로 만들어졌습니다. 이 전략의 컨셉은 비트코인 시가총액뿐만 아니라 비트코인 도미넌스를 조합함으로써 비트코인 시장 흐름을 잘 파악할 수 있도록 하는 것입니다.
BTC Cap Dominance (BCD) RSI는 다음과 같이 정의하였습니다.
BCD RSI = (BTC Cap RSI + BTC Dominance RSI) / 2
Case 1 (강세 장):
Cap RSI와 Dominance RSI 값 모두 높은 경우
Case 2 (횡보 장):
Cap RSI는 높지만 Dominance RSI는 낮은 경우
Cap RSI는 낮지만 Dominance RSI는 높은 경우
Case 3 (약세 장):
Cap RSI와 Dominance RSI 값 모두 낮은 경우
BCD RSI 값이 Bull level 위에서 캔들 마감할 경우 long 신호를 트리거하고 Bear level 아래에서 캔들 마감할 경우 short 신호를 트리거합니다.
(주의) 트레이딩뷰의 시가총액 심볼들 (CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL과 CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2)이 2020년 1월부터 시작하였으므로 이 시점부터 전략 백테스팅이 가능한 점을 유의하십시오.
(주의) 이 전략은 실시간 BCD RSI 값이 나오지 않기 때문에 별도의 BCD RSI Index를 함께 사용하면 현재 값을 알 수 있어 롱숏 신호를 사전에 예측할 수 있으므로 함께 사용하기를 권장합니다.
전략의 추천 기본값 외에 "Use Combination of dominance RSI ?"를 체크하지 않는 경우 권장하는 값은 Length (14), Bull level (74), Bear level (25) 입니다.
BTC 30m ScriptWhat are your thoughts on this script? I connected it to Coinbase Pro via AWS lambda for auto-trading. I'm waiting for BTC to start bullish again before turning it on in production. Thoughts? Thank you! John
Linear Regression Channel Breakout StrategyThis strategy is based on LonesomeTheBlue's Linear Regression Channel Indicator. First of all, I would like to thank LonesomeTheBlue. Breaking the Linear Regression Channel to close the candle triggers a Long or Short signal. If the slope of the Linear Regression Channel is positive, it is Short when it breaks out the lower line, and when the slope is negative, it is Long when it breaks out the upper line. The default is optimized for 8-hour candles, and for other hour candles, find the optimal value yourself. Below is a description of LonesomeTheBlue's Linear Regression Channel.
이 전략은 LonesomeTheBlue의 Linear Regression Channel Indicator를 기반으로 만들어졌습니다. 우선 LonesomeTheBlue님께 감사의 말씀을 드립니다. Linear Regression Channel을 돌파하여 봉 마감하면 Long 또는 Short 신호를 트리거합니다. Linear Regression Channel의 기울기가 양인 경우 하단 라인을 돌파하면 Short이고 그 기울기가 음인 경우 상단 라인을 돌파하면 Long입니다. 기본값은 8시간봉에 최적화 되어 있으며, 다른 시간봉은 직접 최적값을 찾아보십시오. 아래는 LonesomeTheBlue의 Linear Regression Channel에 대한 설명을 퍼왔습니다.
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There are several nice Linear Regression Channel scripts in the Public Library. and I tried to make one with some extra features too. This one can check if the Price breaks the channel and it shows where is was broken. Also it checks the momentum of the channel and shows it's increasing/decreasing/equal in a label, shape of the label also changes. The line colors change according to direction.
using the options, you can;
- Set the Source (Close, HL2 etc)
- Set the Channel length
- Set Deviation
- Change Up/Down Line colors
- Show/hide broken channels
- Change line width
meaning of arrows:
⇑ : Uptrend and moment incresing
⇗ : Uptrend and moment decreasing
⇓ : Downtrend and moment incresing
⇘ : Downtrend and moment decreasing
⇒ : No trend
Simple EMA Crossing Strategy TradeMathSimple EMA Crossing strategy, based on crossover Fast exponential moving average = EMA21 and Slow exponential moving average = EMA55.
Default stop loss is 3%, but you can change it.
Default take profit is 9%, it based on stop loss.
Risk to Reward ratio is 1 to 3.
Strategy was tested on BTCUSDT 1H timeframe and works fine with these parameters.
Traffic Lights Strategy4HS Crypto Market Strategy
This strategy uses 4 ema to get Long or Short Signals
Length are: 4, 9, 18, 100
We take long positions when the order of the emas is the following:
green > yellow > red (As the color of Traffic Lights) and they are above white ema (Used as a filter for long positions)
We take short positions when the order of the emas is the following:
green < yellow < red (As the color of inverse Traffic Lights) and they are below white ema (Used as a filter for short positions)
Enable Long and/or Short Positions in settings
Enable Profit and Stop in strategy settings with different percentage to backtest the strategy. Also if it is better to use a Traditional Stop Loss or a Trailing Stop Loss based on ATR
Change ema filter resolution in settings for better strategy performance
This Strategy was tested on Crypto Market with good results in assets as BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, LTC, XLM, BCH, among others
Feel free to optimize this strategy, optimizing its parameters. Each asset has its own "personality".
Optimized Keltner Channels SL/TP Strategy for BTCThis strategy is optimized for Bitcoin with the Keltner Channel Strategy, which is TradingView's built-in strategy. In the original Keltner Channel Strategy, it was difficult to predict the timing of entry because the Buy and Sell signals floated in the middle of the candle in real time. This strategy is convenient because if the bitcoin price hits the top or bottom of the Keltner Channel and closes the closing price, you can enter Buy or Sell at the next candle start price. In addition, this strategy provides Stop Loss and Take Profit functions to maximize profit.
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Recommended settings are below.
- length: 9
- multiplier: 1
- source: close
- (v) Use EMA
- Bands Style: Average True Range
- ATR Length: 19
- Stop Loss (%): 20
- Take Profit (%) : 20
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- length: 9
- multiplier: 1
- source: close
- (v) Use EMA
- Bands Style: Average True Range
- ATR Length: 18
- Stop Loss (%): 20
- Take Profit (%) : 5
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▶ Usefulness and Originality
- Stop Loss and Take Profit functions are available
- Convenient Buy and Sell entry compared to the original Keltner Channel Strategy
- Optimized for BTCUSD market (maximizing profits)
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이 전략은 TradingView의 Built-in 전략인 Keltner Channel Strategy를 비트코인에 맞게 최적화되었습니다. 기존의 Keltner Channel Strategy는 Buy, Sell 신호가 캔들 중간에 실시간으로 떠서 진입 시점을 예측하기 어려운 불편함이 있었지만 이 전략은 비트코인 가격이 Keltner Channel 상단 혹은 하단을 찍고 종가를 마감하면 그 다음 캔들 시작가에서 Buy 혹은 Sell 진입이 가능하여 편리합니다. 또한, 이 전략은 Keltner Channel을 만나서 캔들을 마감한 가격 (bprice, sprice)을 시각적으로 plot을 제공하여 타점 및 차트를 보기에 편리하며 손절가 및 목표가를 지정한 백테스팅이 가능합니다.
Chanu Delta StrategyThis strategy is built on the Chanu Delta Indicator, which indicates the strength of the Bitcoin market. When the Chanu Delta Indicator hits “Delta_bull” and “Delta_bear” and closes the candle, long and short signals are triggered respectively. The example shown on the screen is a default setting optimized for a 4-hour candlestick strategy based on the Bybit BTCUSDT futures market. For the 15-minute candle, "Delta_bull=32", "Delta_bear=-31", "Source=hlc3" are best. You can use it by adjusting the setting value and modifying it to suit you.
If you use this strategy in conjunction with the Chanu Delta Indicator, it is convenient to anticipate alert signals in advance. Since the Chanu Delta Indicator represents the price difference based on the Bybit BTCUSDT futures market, backtesting is possible from March 2020.
Heikin Ashi + Price Action Crypto LONG StrategyThis is a simple and efficient crypto strategy, designed for big timeframes like 12/24h.
On history it beats buy and hold strategy in many ocasions, and because of a low DD, pyramid can be used to elevate our winnings while still keeping a low DD < 40% avg.
For the purpose of this example, I used 100% of the capital on each trades, together with a comission of 0.1%
Warning : THERE IS NO STOP LOSS ON THIS STRATEGY ,USE IT AT YOUR OWN RISK
This strategy is made with inside Heikin Ashi candles , together with some price actions logics like for long Close > High and green candle and High > High .
We exit when we have a red candle and the current close is lower than the previous Low
If you have any questions, message me in private !
Crypto BOT lower timeframesThis is a crypto bot designed for lower time frames.
Its made of 2 EMA, one fast and one slower . They are combined together with Stochastic, MACD and price action patterns.
For entries we have multiple conditions :
First we check if one of our last 4 closed candles crossed above or below the faster EMA. After that for long, we check that last close is above the fast EMA, that the fast ema is above the slower EMA, at the same time that the histogram from MACD is positive and that we have crossover with the oversold line on stochastic. For the short , the opposite of long.
For exit we have TP/SL mechanic based on price % movement, in this example if the price moved 10% from the initial position it will exit.
Crypto ZigZag RSI strategy 15minThis strategy is designed for crypto markets like ETHUSD/T, BTCUSD/T and so on.
It works amazingly with 15 min time frames.
Its idea consists in :
We have the RSI indicator, and with it we check for the crossover with overbought and oversold levels. At the same time we have the zigzag which is made from the higher highs and the lower lows between a specific price movement in %.
For entries, they are going to be based on the crossover of rsi with overbought or oversold levels , combined together with cross over 0 line from the the zigzag.
At the same time the strategy has the posibility to go only long, only short or both.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Profit Maximizer StrategyFirst I would like to thank to @KivancOzbilgic for developing this indicator.
All the credit goes to him.
I just created a strategy, in order to try to find the perfect parameters, timeframe and currency for it.
I will provide below the same description like he has in the publish of profit maximizer
Profit Maximizer - PMax combines the powerful sides of MOST (Moving Average Trend Changer) and SuperTrend (ATR price detection) in one indicator.
Backtest and optimization results of PMax are far better when compared to its ancestors MOST and SuperTrend. It reduces the number of false signals in sideways and give more reliable trade signals.
PMax is easy to determine the trend and can be used in any type of markets and instruments. It does not repaint.
The first parameter in the PMax indicator set by the three parameters is the period/length of ATR.
The second Parameter is the Multiplier of ATR which would be useful to set the value of distance from the built in Moving Average.
I personally think the most important parameter is the Moving Average Length and type.
PMax will be much sensitive to trend movements if Moving Average Length is smaller. And vice versa, will be less sensitive when it is longer.
As the period increases it will become less sensitive to little trends and price actions.
In this way, your choice of period, will be closely related to which of the sort of trends you are interested in.
We are under the effect of the uptrend in cases where the Moving Average is above PMax;
conversely under the influence of a downward trend, when the Moving Average is below PMax.
Built in Moving Average type defaultly set as EMA but users can choose from 8 different Moving Average types like:
SMA : Simple Moving Average
EMA : Exponential Movin Average
WMA : Weighted Moving Average
TMA : Triangular Moving Average
VAR : Variable Index Dynamic Moving Average aka VIDYA
WWMA : Welles Wilder's Moving Average
ZLEMA : Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average
TSF : True Strength Force
Tip: In sideways VAR would be a good choice
You can use PMax default alarms and Buy Sell signals like:
1-
BUY when Moving Average crosses above PMax
SELL when Moving Average crosses under PMax
2-
BUY when prices jumps over PMax line.
SELL when prices go under PMax line.
Simple and efficient MACD crypto strategy with risk managementToday I am glad to bring you another great creation suited for crypto markets.
MARKET
Its a simple and efficient strategy, designed for crypto markets( btcusd , btcusdt and so on), and suited for for higher time charts : like 1hour, 4hours, 1 day and so on.
Preferably to use 1h time charts.
COMPONENTS
MACD with simple moving average
ENTRY DESCRIPTION
For entries we have :
We check the direction with MACD . Depending if its an uptrend and positive level on histogram of MACD we go long, otherwise we go short.
RISK MANAGEMENT
In this strategy we use a stop loss based on our equity. For this example I choosed a 2% risk .That means if our account has 100.000 eur, it will automatically close the trade if we lose 2.000.
We dont use a take profit level.
In this example also we use a 100.000 capital account, risking 5% on each trade, but since its underleveraged, we only use 5000 of that ammount on every trade. With leveraged it can be achieved better profits and of course at the same time we will encounter bigger losses.
The comission applied is 5$ and a slippage of 5 points aswell added.
For any questions or suggestions regarding the script , please let me know.
EMA Slope Trend Follower StrategyThis strategy is based on the slope of the EMA130.
Over that slope, the script calculates two EMAs (9,21) which are used to generate the main entry and exit signal.
In particular, the strategy enters a LONG position when EMA9 > EMA21. On the contrary, it closes the LONG and opens a SHORT when EMA9 < EMA21.
When the slope of the EMA130 is rising, it means that the price is accelerating upwards, fueling an uptrend. Conversely, when the slope is falling, it means that the price is slowing down, falling into a possible downtrend.
Calculating and analyzing two EMAs (fast and slow) over the slope of a medium length EMA instead of the price anticipates a lot the signal. In this way, the strategy never miss a trend.
In order to minimize false positives (entering useless positions), I included two filters, which can be optionally turned on:
- Trend Filter: When the price is above EMA200, the strategy opens ONLY LONG positions. If price < EMA200, only shorts allowed. If the slope gives a long signal and price is below EMA200, for example, the eventual SHORT position is closed, but the LONG entry is postponed to the moment when both conditions (slope uptrending and price > ema200) are met.
I recommend always turning on this filter, as it dramatically decreases drawdown.
- Volatility Filter: When the standard deviation of the last 20 candles is below its 50 samples moving average, no positions are opened, as market is going sideways. The purpose of this filter is to prevent false positives (positions which open and close in a matter of candles due to false signals in sideways market).
I recommend turning on this filter only on low time frames.
This strategy works great on medium time frames (like 4h, 6h, daily), since it spends way less in fees, opening less positions.
It works good on low TFs too (up to 1h, didn't test lower ones), provided Volatility filter is turned on and parameters are set according to the asset.
Commission included in calculations: 0.06% (it's the taker commission on BitMEX with the 10% discount obtainable with any referral link)
Slippage included in calculations: 2 ticks (BitMEX has very liquid order books, and slippage doesn't happen very often unless a huge position size is used).
inwCoin Martingale Strategy ( for Bitcoin )** Same as my previous martingale script but this version = opensource **
inwCoin Martingale Strategy is the proof of concept strategy that in the end, anyone who using martingale strategy will kaboom their portfolio.
For those who don't know what is "martingale".. it's a simple double down strategy in the hope to cover the loss in previous entry.
Example
In the game that if you win, you'll get 100% of your bet money back.
1st loss = 1$
2nd loss = bet 2$ : if win, get 2$ / real profit = 1$ ( 2-1 )
3rd loss = bet 4$ : if win, get 4$ / real profit = 1$ ( 4 - ( 2+1) )
4th loss = bet 8$ : if win, get 8$ / real profit = 1$ ( 8 - ( 4+2+1 ) )
...
...
10th loss = bet 512$ : if win, get 512$ / real profit = 1$ ( 512 - ( 256+128+64+32+16+8+4+2+1) )
as you can see, the next bet will be first bet x 2^(n-1)
and the profit will equal to your first bet.
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In trading and forex EA ( Expert Advisor or bot ) people use this strategy to fool newbies that their martingale system will generate steady income for eternity.
But in reality, this strategy will destroy your whole portfolio eventually some time in the future. Because there will be some "Blackswan event" in market at some point in time. And one who ignore this fact, will lose everything.
But, if you using low risk strategy and generate some profit from your low-risk portfolio. You can take small chunk of that profit and put it in riskier strategy like this martingale, to accerelate your profit snowball.
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Parameter Explaination
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Price = datasource for indicator calculation
Fixed position size option = if uncheck, the "Start position size" parameter will be % of your initial capital. If checked, it will fixed position size ( like 1 BTC )
Start Position Logic = condition to enter first trade
- MACD singal > 0 : Self explanatory, default macd value
- Stochastic RSI cross up : enter when sto line cross up from bottom ( 20 )
- ATR channel : enter trade if price cross above 2.3 ATR
Take Profit Percent = take profit target % from average entry
Start martingale ..= if price compare to average position entry less than this %, it will start to double down ( martingale )
Martingale Multiplier = you can specific how big you'll double down, default is 2
Trade Direction = long only for now
Use date rang = self explanatory
** make sure to setup your initial capital in properties tab **
On chart
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White Line = Average position price
Orange Line = your current equity
If equity less than 0, it will close any remaining positions ( It's mean your position got liquidated )
If price > equity line for "take profit percent" it will close any remaining positions.
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As you can see, this strategy survive 2018 drop and pump profit to 1000+% ( Check in the strategy tester tab > list of trades )
But in May 2020 -50% drop in just 3 days, your whole portfolio got liquidated.
Actually, after some digging in profit and backtest result.
This strategy, when it can survive a shape drop, can generate a lot of profit.
So, if you want to use martingale. Make sure to use only small chunk of your profit from "low-risk" strategy to accelerate your profit generation ( aka degen port )
DO NOT greedy and use all of your initial capital or borrowed money to use with this strategy!
MTF Trailing SL Strategy [QuantNomad]This is a Multi-Timeframe version of my Trailing SL Strategy.
Few weeks ago I published Trailing SL Strategy. There I used only basic Trailing SL to enter positions.
It worked pretty well so I tried to work on it a bit. I thought what if you can use the same ATR TSL on different timeframes and combine them into one signal.
In this strategy you can use only ATR stops and choose 3 other higher timeframes in addition to your current timeframe.
You'll see Trailing SL plotted on the chart form all these timeframes.
Entry Long position if all 4 time-frames agree on long signal.
Exit Long positions when at least 2 time-frames disagree on long signal.
Entry to Short position if all 4 time-frames agree on Short signal.
Exit from Short positions when at least 2 time-frames disagree on Short signal.
Here is the link to my basic Trailing SL Strategy:
Coinbase_3-MIN_HFT-StrategyThis conceptual strategy trades against the short-term trend. The first position can be either long or short.
In the short-term, prices fluctuate up and down on wide spread exchanges.
And if the price moves to one side, the price tends to return to its original position momentarily.
This strategy set stop order. Stop price is calculated with upper and lower shadows.
Grover Llorens Activator Strategy AnalysisThe Grover Llorens Activator is a trailing stop indicator deeply inspired by the parabolic SAR indicator, and aim to provide early exit points and reversal detection. The indicator was posted not so long ago, you can find it here :
Today a strategy using the indicator is proposed, and its profitability is analyzed on 3 different markets with the main time frame being 1 hour, remember that lower time frames involve lower absolute price changes, therefore we are way more affected by the spread, and we can require a larger position sizing depending on our investment target, trading higher time-frames is always a good practice and this is why 1 hour is selected. Based on the result we might make various conclusions regarding the indicator accuracy and might have ideas on future improvements of the indicator.
I'am not great when it comes to strategy design, i still hope to share correct and useful information in this post, let me know your thoughts on the post format and if i should make more of these.
Setup And Rules
The analysis is solely based on the indicator signals, money management isn't taken into account, this allow us to have an idea on the indicator robustness and resilience, particularly on extremely volatile markets and ones exhibiting a chaotic structure, altho it is normally good practice to close any position before a market closure in order to avoid any potential major gaps.
The settings used are 480 for length and 14 for mult, this create relatively mid term signals that are suited for a trend indicator such as the Grover Llorens Activator, unfortunately we can't infer the indicator optimal settings, thats how it is with any technical indicator anyway.
Here are the rules of our strategy :
long : closing price cross over the indicator
short : closing price cross under the indicator
We use constant position sizing, once a signal is triggered all the previous positions are closed.
Description Of The Statistics Used
Various statistics are presented in this post, here is a brief description of the main ones :
Percent Profitability (higher = better): Percentage of winning trades, that is : winning trades/total number of trades × 100
Maximum Drawdown (lower = better) : The highest difference between a peak and a valley in the balance, that is : peak - valley , in percentage : (peak - valley)/peak × 100
Profit Factor (higher = better) : Gross profit divided by gross loss, values under 1 represent gross losses superior to the gross profits
Remember that more volatility = more risk, since higher absolute price changes can logically cause larger losses.
EURUSD
The first market analyzed is the Forex market with the EURUSD major pair with a position sizing of 1000 units (1 micro lot). Since October EURUSD is not showing any particular strong trend but posses a discrete rising motion, fortunately cycles can be observed.
The equity was rising until two trades appeared causing a decline in the equity. Before October a bearish market could be observed.
We can see that the equity is rising, the trend still posses various retracements that affect our indicator, however we can see that the indicator totally nail the end of the trend, thats the power of converging toward the price.
In short :
$ 86.63 net profit
340 closed trades
37.65 % profitable (thats a lot of loosing trades)
1.19 profit factor
$ 76.67 max drawdown
Applying a spread would create negative results (in general the average spread is used), not a great start...
BTCUSD
The cryptocurrency market is relatively more volatile than others, which also mean potentially higher returns, we test the indicator using certainly the most traded cryptocurrency, BTCUSD. We will use a position sizing of 1 unit.
In the case of BTCUSD the strategy balance is relatively stationary around the initial capital, with of course high dispersion.
from september to december the market is bearish with various ranging periods, no apparent cycles can be observed, except maybe in the ranging period of october, this ranging period is followed by a non linear trend (relatively parabolic) that the indicator failed to capture in its integrity (this is a recurrent problem and it is starting to piss me off xD).
In short :
$ 2010.64 net profit (aka how i bet the crypto market)
395 closed trades
38.23 % profitable
1.036 profit factor
$ 5738.01 max drawdown (aka how i lost to the crypto market)
AMD
AMD stand for Advanced Micro Devices and is a company focused on the development of computer technology, i love the microprocessor market and i really like AMD who start this year in a pretty great way with a net bullish trend.
The performance of the indicator on AMD is decent (at last !) with the equity producing many new higher highs. The indicator performance still drop in the middle end of 2019 with a large equity drawdown of 17$ caused by the gap of august 8. Unfortunately AMD, like lot of well behaving stocks can only tells us that the indicator has good performances on heavily trending markets with no excess of noise or chaotic structures.
In short :
$ 17.86 net profit (Enough for a consistent lunch)
295 closed trades
36.27 % profitable
1.414 profit factor
$ 10.37 max drawdown.
Conclusion
A strategy using the recently proposed Grover Llorens activator has been presented. We can easily conclude that the indicator can't possibly generate long term returns under chaotic and volatile markets, and could even produce unnecessary trades in trending markets without much parasitic fluctuations such as noise and retracements (think about a simple linear trend) since the indicator converge toward the price and would therefore automatically cross over/under the trend, thus guaranteeing a false signal.
However we have seen its ability to provide accurate early reversal detection shine from time to time, thus over performing lagging indicators in this aspect, however the duration of price fluctuations isn't fixed at a certain period, the rate of convergence should be way faster during volatile fluctuations, of moderate speed during more cyclic fluctuations, and really slow with apparent long term trends, this could be achieved by making the indicator adaptive, but it won't really make it necessarily perform better.
That said i still believe that converging trend indicators are really interesting and aim to capture the non lasting behavior of price fluctuations, they shouldn't receive so much hate (think about the poor p-sar).
Thanks for reading !
Pivot of Pivot Reversal Strategy [QuantNomad]Continue looking for more signifcant pivot points.
This script is based on my "Significant Pivot Reversal Strategy".
In this strategy I use concept of pivot of pivot points.
So for PoP I require that pivot highs point should have 2 lower pivot highs points around them and pivot low 2 higher pivot lows points.
Transparent lines represent usual pivot levels ints.
Not transparent lines represent pivot of pivot levels.
Link to original script:
QuantNomad - Significant Pivot Reversal StrategyI'm working on improving the Pivot Points Reversal Strategy.
As one of the ways to filter out insignificant levels I decided to check that pivot point is not above/below neighbors, but check that it's above/below at least by a certain amount.
I use ATR, so in params, you can set length of ATR and also ATR multiplier. The new level will be calculated only if PP will be above/below neighbors by atr * atr_mult.
It seems this approach might help in some cases.
Here I have PivotPoint + RSI strategy:
QuantNomad - EVWMA Cross StrategyPretty simple EVWMA (Elastic Volume Weighted Moving Average) Cross Strategy. Long on bullish cross, Short on Bearish Crosss.
EVWMA is a quite interesting moving average where period of the MA is defined from volume itself.
It incorporates volume information in a natural and logical way. The eVWMA can be looked at as an approximation to the average price paid per share.
As a volume period you can use sum of the last x bars volumes.
Here is EVWMA as an indicator:
