[SHORT ONLY] Consecutive Bars Above MA Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Consecutive Bars Above MA Strategy" is a contrarian trading system aimed at exploiting overextended bullish moves in stocks and ETFs. It monitors the number of consecutive bars that close above a chosen short-term moving average (which can be either a Simple Moving Average or an Exponential Moving Average). Once the count reaches a preset threshold and the current bar’s close exceeds the previous bar’s high within a designated trading window, a short entry is initiated. An optional EMA filter further refines entries by requiring that the current close is below the 200-period EMA, helping to ensure that trades are taken in a bearish environment.
█ HOW ARE THE CONSECUTIVE BULLISH COUNTS CALCULATED?
The strategy utilizes a counter variable, `bullCount`, to track consecutive bullish bars based on their relation to the short-term moving average. Here’s how the count is determined:
Initialize the Counter
The counter is initialized at the start:
var int bullCount = na
Bullish Bar Detection
For each bar, if the close is above the selected moving average (either SMA or EMA, based on user input), the counter is incremented:
bullCount := close > signalMa ? (na(bullCount) ? 1 : bullCount + 1) : 0
Reset on Non-Bullish Condition
If the close does not exceed the moving average, the counter resets to zero, indicating a break in the consecutive bullish streak.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. SHORT ENTRY
A short signal is generated when:
The number of consecutive bullish bars (i.e., bars closing above the short-term MA) meets or exceeds the defined threshold (default: 3).
The current bar’s close is higher than the previous bar’s high.
The signal occurs within the specified trading window (between Start Time and End Time).
Additionally, if the EMA filter is enabled, the entry is only executed when the current close is below the 200-period EMA.
2. EXIT CONDITION
An exit signal is triggered when the current close falls below the previous bar’s low, prompting the strategy to close the short position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Threshold: The number of consecutive bullish bars required to trigger a short entry (default is 3).
Trading Window: The Start Time and End Time inputs define when the strategy is active.
Moving Average Settings: Choose between SMA and EMA, and set the MA length (default is 5), which is used to assess each bar’s bullish condition.
EMA Filter (Optional): When enabled, this filter requires that the current close is below the 200-period EMA, supporting entries in a downtrend.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for stocks and ETFs and can be applied across various timeframes.
It seeks to capture mean reversion by shorting after a series of bullish bars suggests an overextended move.
The approach employs a contrarian short entry by waiting for a breakout (close > previous high) following consecutive bullish bars.
The adjustable moving average settings and optional EMA filter allow for further optimization based on market conditions.
Comprehensive backtesting is recommended to fine-tune the threshold, moving average parameters, and filter settings for optimal performance.
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[SHORT ONLY] Consecutive Close>High[1] Mean Reversion Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Consecutive Close > High " Mean Reversion Strategy is a contrarian daily trading system for stocks and ETFs. It identifies potential shorting opportunities by counting consecutive days where the closing price exceeds the previous day's high. When this consecutive day count reaches a predetermined threshold, and if the close is below a 200-period EMA (if enabled), a short entry is triggered, anticipating a corrective pullback.
█ HOW ARE THE CONSECUTIVE BULLISH COUNTS CALCULATED?
The strategy uses a counter variable called `bullCount` to track how many consecutive bars meet a bullish condition. Here’s a breakdown of the process:
Initialize the Counter
var int bullCount = 0
Bullish Bar Detection
Every time the close exceeds the previous bar's high, increment the counter:
if close > high
bullCount += 1
Reset on Bearish Bar
When there is a clear bearish reversal, the counter is reset to zero:
if close < low
bullCount := 0
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. SHORT ENTRY
A Short Signal is triggered when:
The count of consecutive bullish closes (where close > high ) reaches or exceeds the defined threshold (default: 3).
The signal occurs within the specified trading window (between Start Time and End Time).
2. EXIT CONDITION
An exit Signal is generated when the current close falls below the previous bar’s low (close < low ), prompting the strategy to exit the position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Threshold: The number of consecutive bullish closes required to trigger a short entry (default is 3).
Start Time and End Time: The time window during which the strategy is allowed to execute trades.
EMA Filter (Optional): When enabled, short entries are only triggered if the current close is below the 200-period EMA.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for Stocks and ETFs on the Daily timeframe and targets overextended bullish moves.
It aims to capture mean reversion by entering short after a series of consecutive bullish closes.
Further optimization is possible with additional filters (e.g., EMA, volume, or volatility).
Backtesting should be used to fine-tune the threshold and filter settings for specific market conditions.
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Sequential Filter - An Original Filtering ApproachRemoving irregular variations in the closing price remain a major task in technical analysis, indicators used to this end mostly include moving averages and other kind of low-pass filters. Understanding what kind of variations we want to remove is important, irregular (noisy) variations have mostly a short term period, fully removing them can be complicated if the filter is not properly selected, for example we might want to fully remove variations with a period of 2 bars and lower, if we select an arithmetic moving average the filter output might still contain such variations because of the ripples in the frequency response passband, all it would take is a variation of high amplitude for that variation to be clearly visible.
Although all it would take for better filtering is a filter with better performance in the frequency domain (gaussian, Butterworth, Bessel...) we can design innovative approaches that does not rely on the model of classical moving averages, today a new technical indicator is proposed, the technical indicator fully remove variations lower than the selected period.
The Indicator Approach
In order for the indicator output to change the closing price need to produce length consecutive up's/down's, length control the variation threshold of the indicator, variations lower than length are fully removed. Lets see a visual example :
Here length = 3, the closing price need to make 3 consecutive up's/down's, when the sequence happen the indicator output is equal to src , here the closing price, else the indicator is equal to its precedent value, hence removing other variations. The value of 3 is the value by default, this is because i have seen in the past that the average smallest variations period where in general of 3 bars.
Because the indicator focus only on the variation sign, it totally ignore the amplitude of the movement, this provide an effective way to filter short term retracement in a fluctuation as show'n below :
The candle option of the indicator allow the indicator to only focus on the body color of a candle, thus ignoring potential gaps, below is an example with the candle option off :
If we activate the "candle" option we end up with :
Note that the candle option is based on the closing and opening price, if you use the indicator on another indicator output make sure to have the candle option off.
Length and Indicator Color
The closing price is infected by noise, and will rarely make a large sequence of consecutive up's/down's, the indicator can therefore be useful to detect consecutive sequence of length period, here 6 is selected on BTCUSD :
A consecutive up's/down's of period 6 can be considered a relatively rare event.
It is important to note that the color of the indicator used by default has nothing to do with the consecutive sequence detected, that is the indicator turning red doesn't necessarily mean that a consecutive down's sequence has occurred, but only that this sequence has occurred at a lower value than the precedent detected sequence. This is show'n below :
In order to make the indicator color based on the detected sequence check the "Color Based On Detected Sequence" option.
Conclusion
An original approach on filtering price variations has been proposed, i believe the indicator code is elegant as well as relatively efficient, and since high values of length can't really be used the indicator execution speed will remain relatively fast.
Thanks for reading ! Indicatore
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