Bollinger Bands (Nadaraya Smoothed) | Flux ChartsTicker: AMEX:SPY , Timeframe: 1m, Indicator settings: default
General Purpose
This script is an upgrade to the classic Bollinger Bands. The idea behind Bollinger bands is the detection of price movements outside of a stock's typical fluctuations. Bollinger Bands use a moving average over period n plus/minus the standard deviation over period n times a multiplier. When price closes above or below either band this can be considered an abnormal movement. This script allows for the classic Bollinger Band interpretation while de-noising or "smoothing" the bands.
Efficacy
Ticker: AMEX:SPY , Timeframe: 1m, Indicator settings: Standard Dev: 2; Level 1 : off; Level 2: off; labels: off
Upper Band Key:
Blue: Bollinger No smoothing
Orange: Bollinger SMA smoothing period of 10
Purple: Bollinger EMA smoothing period of 10
Red: Nadaraya Smoothed Bollinger bandwidth of 6
Here we chose periods so that each would have a similar offset from the original Bollinger's. Notice that the Red Band has a much smoother result while on average having a similar fit to the other smoothing techniques. Increasing the EMA's or SMA's period would result in them being smoother however the offset would increase making them less accurate to the original data.
Ticker: AMEX:SPY , Timeframe: 1m, Indicator settings: Standard Dev: 2; Level 1: off; Level 2: off; labels: off
Upper Band Key:
Blue: Bollinger No smoothing
Orange: Bollinger SMA smoothing period of 20
Purple: Bollinger EMA smoothing period of 20
Red: Nadaraya Smoothed Bollinger bandwidth of 6
This makes the Nadaraya estimator a particularly efficacious technique in this use case as it achieves a superior smoothness to fit ratio.
How to Use
This indicator is not intended to be used on its own. Its use case is to identify outlier movements and periods of consolidation. The Smoothing Factor when lowered results in a more reactive but noisy graph. This setting is also known as the "bandwidth" ; it essentially raises the amplitude of the kernel function causing a greater weighting to recent data similar to lowering the period of a SMA or EMA. The repaint smoothing simply draws on the Bollinger's each chart update. Typically repaint would be used for processing and displaying discrete data however currently it's simply another way to display the Bollinger Bands.
What makes this script unique.
Since Bollinger bands use standard deviation they have excess noise. By noise we mean minute fluctuations which most traders will not find useful in their strategies. The Nadaraya-Watson estimator, as used, is essentially a weighted average akin to an ema. A gaussian kernel is placed at the candlestick of interest. That candlestick's value will have the highest weight. From that point the other candlesticks' values effect on the average will decrease with the slope of the kernel function. This creates a localized mean of the Bollinger Bands allowing for reduced noise with minimal distortion of the original Bollinger data.
Fluxcharts
VWAP Divergence | Flux ChartsThe VWAP Divergence indicator aims to find divergences between price action and the VWAP indicator. It uses filters to filter out many of the false divergences and alert high quality, accurate signals.
Red dots above the candle represent bearish divergences, while green dots below the candle represent bullish divergences.
The main filter for divergences focuses on ATR and the price movement in the past candles up to the lookback period. Divergences are determined when a price movement over the lookback period is sharp enough to be greater/less than the ATR multiplier multiplied by the ATR.
Settings
Under "Divergence Settings", both the lookback period and ATR multiplier can be adjusted.
Due to the nature of the calculations, the ATR multiplier and the lookback period should be set lower on higher time frames. As price movements become more averaged, for example on the 15 minute chart, sharp price movements happen less frequently and are often contained in fewer candles as they happen on lower time frames. Less volatile stocks such as KO, CL, or BAC should also use lower ATR multipliers and lower lookback periods.
Under "Visual Settings", you can change the color of the VWAP line, show alternating VWAP colors, adjust divergence signal size, and show the VWAP line.
Wick-to-Body Ratio Trend Forecast | Flux ChartsThe Wick-to-Body Ratio Trend Forecast Indicator aims to forecast potential movements following the last closed candle using the wick-to-body ratio. The script identifies those candles within the loopback period with a ratio matching that of the last closed candle and provides an analysis of their trends.
➡️ USAGE
Wick-to-body ratios can be used in many strategies. The most common use in stock trading is to discern bullish or bearish sentiment. This indicator extends candle ratios, revealing previous patterns that follow a candle with a similar ratio. The most basic use of this indicator is the single forecast line.
➡️ FORECASTING SYSTEM
This line displays a compilation of the averages of all the previous trends resulting from those historical candles with a matching ratio. It shows the average movements of the trends as well as the 'strength' of the trend. The 'strength' of the trend is a gradient that is blue when the trend deviates more from the average and red when it deviates less.
Chart: AMEX:SPY 30 min; Indicator Settings: Loopback 700, Previous Trends ON
The color-coded deviation is visible in this image of the indicator with the default settings (except for Forecast Lines > Previous Trends ), and the trend line grows bluer as the past patterns deviate more.
➡️ ADAPTIVE ACCEPTABLE RANGE
The algorithm looks back at every candle within the loopback period to find candles that match the last closed candle. The algorithm adaptively changes the acceptable range to which a candle can differ from the ratio of the last closed candle. The algorithm will never have more than 15 historical points used, as it will lower its sensitivity before it reaches that point.
Chart: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 5 min; Indicator Settings: Loopback 700
Here is the BTC chart on 7/6/23 with default settings except for the loopback period at 700.
Chart: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 5 min; Indicator Settings: Loopback 200
Here is the exact same chart with a loopback period of 200. While the first ratio for both is the same, a new ratio is revealed for the chart with a loopback of only 200 because the adaptive range is adjusted in the algorithm to find an acceptable number of reference points. Note the table in the top right however, while the algorithm adapts the acceptable range between the current ratio and historical ones to find reference points, there is a threshold at which candles will be considered too inaccurate to be considered. This prevents meaningless associations between candles due to a particularly rare ratio. This threshold can be adjusted in the settings through "Default Accuracy".