Strategy:Reversal-CatcherWhat
This is a plain and vanilla reversal based strategy for intraday (15m) timeframe on Futures prices of the assets.
Now what all it comprises of?
It finds out the dynamic support & resistance from Bollinger Band (20 period, 1.5 std dev).
It finds out the potential divergence of price deviation from 5 period exponential moving average (EMA).
If the previous candle (N-1) shows a divergence it confirms the reversal by checking the present candle (N) to be closed inside the Bollinger Band.
It confirms the momentum by checking RSI shows a crossover/crossunder to oversold (30) / overbought (70) region.
It also confirms whether the trend is up (then only reversal trade to short) or down (then only reversal trade to long). The trend is checked with EMA-21 and EMA-50.
Re-affirmation Condition : It re-affirms the position of two successive candles called as `hhLLong` and `hhLLShort` in the script.
Why
In Indian context, retail participants are pre-dominantly (yes- 80% of Indian daily volume) Options buyers mainly in weekly indices (Nifty, BankNifty, FinNifty, CNXMidcap, Sensex, Bankx .. well everyday is expiry now in India, except -- Thank God -- Saturday & Sunday).
And in Index Options the momentum plays a big role.
If one can catch a good reversal point the potential of high Risk-to-Reward trade (hence earn handsomely) is very likely (please note: there is no holy grail in trading. Nothing works 100%).
So this is the attempt to catch a reversal.
Re-affirmation of Reversal
hhLLong : It's a reversal point after an uptrend. It checks the relative positioning of current candle compared to that of previous candle. [The details are in the script. Check for variable hhLLong in script.
hhLLShort : It's a reversal point after a downtrend. It checks the relative positioning of current candle compared to that of previous candle. [The details are in the script. Check for variable hhLLShort in script.
Unique-ness
What's unique in it? Why we decided to publicly share this:
Already given the context of The Great Indian Options Buyers community. It should be helpful to them, we believe.
It takes Very Less Number of Trades with High Accuracy . Please check the result in NSE:NIFTY1! in 15m timeframe. 71% accuracy with roughly a trade in a month.
There is no point giving brokers' the brokerages taking 10 trades a day and ending not-so-good EoD. Better lets take less trades with better result possibility. .
Mention
There are many people uses this variation of Bolling Band, 5EMA
Many people use RSI, trends and relative positioning of candles.
--> We are grateful to all of them. It's really difficult to mention everyone's name. But all people somehow influence the thought process. Thanks for all of them.
Statutory Disclaimer
There is no silver bullet / holy grail in trading. Nothing works 100% time. One has to be careful about the loss (s)he can bear in case of the trade goes against.
We, as the author of this script, is not responsible for any trading or position decision one is taken based on the outcome of this.
It is our sole discretion to change, add, delete the portion or withdraw the whole script without any prior notice or intimation.
In Indian Context : We are not SEBI registered, will never be SEBI registered.
Options
MACD HTF - Dynamic SmoothingEnhancing Your 1-Minute Trades with Dynamic HTF MACD Smoothing
Ever found yourself glued to a 1-minute chart, trying to catch every minor price movement, yet feeling like you're missing the bigger picture? Picture this: a solid MACD line on that chart, dynamically smoothed from a higher timeframe (HTF). This tool offers two significant benefits over other existing HTF MACD indicators:
User-Friendly Interface: No need to manually adjust input parameters every time you switch to a different timeframe.
Smooth Charting: Say goodbye to the zigzag lines that often result from plotting higher time frame resolutions on a lower time frame.
Understanding the MACD
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one of the most widely used and trusted technical indicators in the trading community. Invented by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s, the MACD helps traders understand the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price. It consists of the MACD line (difference between a 12-period and 26-period Exponential Moving Average) and the Signal line (9-period EMA of the MACD line). When the MACD line crosses above the Signal line, it's viewed as a bullish signal, and vice versa. The difference between the two lines is represented as a histogram, providing insights into potential buy or sell opportunities.
Features of the Dynamic HTF MACD Smoothing Script
Time Frame Flexibility: Choose a higher timeframe to derive MACD values and apply dynamic smoothing to your current timeframe.
Multiple Moving Averages: The script supports various MA types like EMA, SMA, DEMA, TEMA, WMA and HMA.
Alerts: Get real-time alerts for MACD crossover and crossunder.
Customizability: From the type of moving average to its length, customize as per your strategy.
Visual Indicators: Clearly plots signals when MACD crossover or crossunder occurs for potential entries.
At last
A massive shoutout to all the wizards and generous contributors in the community! You inspire innovations and new tools, paving the path forward. Here's to a community where we learn and build together. Cheers to collective growth!
HTF Trend Filter - Dynamic SmoothingSummary of the HTF Trend Filter
The Higher Time Frame (HTF) Trend Filter is a cutting-edge tool crafted for traders who want to scan moving average trend lines time efficiently. At its core, it harnesses the power of dynamic smoothing to present a sleek moving average line regardless of the time frame you’re on. Here's a glimpse of the advantages you unlock with the HTF trend filter:
Dynamic Smoother: Ever been irked by jagged lines on your chart? With the dynamic smoother, those days are gone. The smoother streamlines HTF moving average line on your current lower time frame chart.
Time Efficiency: Time is of the essence in trading. With this tool, you can nimbly toggle between time charts without the hassle of readjusting input parameters, ensuring your screening process remains unhindered.
Features of the Script
Variety of Moving Averages: The script caters to different trading styles by offering a plethora of moving average types, ranging from the classic SMA and EMA to the innovative Hull and McGinley Dynamic MAs.
Dynamic Smoothing: This is the script's pièce de résistance. The dynamic smoothing factor is ingeniously derived by taking the ratio of minutes of the higher time frame to the current time frame. This ensures the moving average remains fluid and consistent across different time frames, eliminating the common pitfalls of jagged moving averages.
Reversal Indicators: It includes a reversal indicator. Green circles pinpoint the start of a potential uptrend, while red ones signify a potential downtrend.
Customizable Alerts: To ensure you never miss a beat, the script is equipped with customizable alert conditions.
Trading Idea
The essence of trading lies in confirming assumptions and validating trends. The HTF Trend Dynamic Smoother positions itself as a potential game-changer in this domain. One could consider using the HTF trend dynamic smoother as a supplementary confirmation tool alongside other primary indicators. For instance, if you're plotting a moving average on a lower time frame, toggling the HTF smoother can offer a broader perspective of the trend from a higher time frame. By ensuring alignment between these perspectives, you could potentially trade with increased confidence, reinforcing your lower time frame strategies with higher time frame confirmations. It's worth noting, however, that while this method can offer additional layers of information and validation, it doesn't replace due diligence. Every trade decision should be the culmination of thorough analysis, and no tool should be solely relied upon for decision-making.
Limitations
While the HTF Trend Filter is an exceptional tool, like all tools, it has its constraints. Lower Time Frame Dependency: For the indicator to function optimally, it's paramount to ensure that the time frame open is always lower (or equal) than the one selected in the input parameters. This limitation is crucial to remember as the dynamic smoother's accuracy hinges on this condition.
In conclusion, the HTF Trend Filter - Dynamic Smoothing is a remarkable blend of innovation and efficiency, tailored for traders who demand fast screening of higher time frame MA trends. Due to it simplistic design it gives a user-friendly experience. However, always remember the golden rule of trading: utilize tools as part of a comprehensive strategy, never in isolation.
Implied Range from Options [SS]I have been promising to post this for a while, but I just needed to make sure that a) there were no similar indicators already available and b) make it a bit more user friendly.
So here it is, a basic indicator that will display the implied range from options.
In addition to displaying the implied range from options, it will provide some secondary information to help add context to the implied range. Those are shown in the chart below:
The indicator will list various precents at each point to the upside and to the downside. This is the percent move required, based on the current close price, to obtain any point in the implied move range.
In addition, the indicator will display the average move from open to high and open to low over a user defined period (default to 14 candle period) as well as the previous open to high and open to low move from the previous day.
This is to give you context of:
a) How much of a % increase or decrease is required to reach the implied ranges; and
b) How does the implied range compare to the ticker's average moves.
An increased implied range that exceeds the ticker's average move can alert you that the market is pricing in an above average move. This can be helpful and alert you to potential news releases or other fundamental things that have the potential to move the market.
How to Use the indicator:
So unfortunately, this indicator requires a bit of manual input. I was going to do an auto IV calculcation using Black-Scholes Model but just to be more rigorous in accuracy, I decided to, for now, leave it at a manual input. So when you launch the settings menu, this is what you will see:
You can collect all of this required information from your broker. Inversely, you can collect it online for free from various services such as Barchart or COBE's exchange website. The easiest way is to just pull it from your broker though.
Make sure, if you are doing weekly options to see the weekly range, you set the timeframe to 1 week. The timeframe function will calculate the average move over the desired timeframe length. So if you are doing a 0 dte for the next day, you want to see the intra-day range and will select the 1 day timeframe. It will then present to you the range averages and information on the daily timeframe for you to compare to the implied options range.
Same for the weekly, monthly, yearly, etc.
Additional options:
The indicator provides the midline average and midway points, to add static targets if you are trading the implied range.
These can be toggled on or off in the settings menu:
As well, as you can see, you can also toggle off the range labels.
There is also an offset option. This allows you to extend the range into the future:
Simply select how many candles you would like to plot the range in advance.
Closing remarks
That is the indicator. Its very simple, but it is handy. I was never one to pay attention to option pricing data, but I have been plotting it out daily and weekly these past few weeks and it does add a bit of context in terms of what the market is thinking. So I do recommend actually adding it to your repertoire of analyses going into the weeks and months, and really just paying attention to how the average ranges compare to what the market is pricing in.
One quick suggestion, select the strike price that aligns with the closing price of the ticker. This gives you a better representation of the range.
Safe trades everyone and leave your comments, questions and suggestions below!
Options & Leveraged Shares Heatmap This is the leveraged share/option heatmap / screener.
Tradingview offers a few different tickers that have PTCR data on the daily timeframe. So I was able to pull those few tickers that display the PTCR data and format it into a heatmap.
I also had some room to add leveraged share data as well.
It is pretty self explanatory but I will go over it really briefly:
The timeframe is 1 D. This cannot be changed because this is the only timeframe available for the PTCR data.
It will pull the current day PTCR as well as the previous day PTCR and display the PTCR and change value.
The screening will be done according to the 1 day change.
You have the ability to select the option to sort by Max and Min or sort by heatmap:
Displaying max and min will show you the max positive and negative change among all the available tickers.
Max positive = bearish, as this indicates an uptick in Puts.
Max negative = bullish, as this indicates a decline in Puts.
If we flip over to the leveraged shares, it is the same:
To keep it consistent, the leveraged share ratio is displayed similar to PTCR. It is Sell to Buy ratio. The higher the ratio, the more selling and vice versa.
Thus, the same rules apply. Max positive = bearish and max negative = bullish.
If you want to display the heatmap, this is what it will look like:
The darker the blue, the higher the change in either a negative or positive direction. The same for the leveraged shares:
And that is the indicator.
Hopefully you find it helpful. I like to reference it at the end of each day to see how things are looking in terms of positioning for the following day.
Leave your comments/questions and suggestions below.
Safe trades!
Binary Option Strategy Tester with Martingale-Basic V.2In Binary options, strategy testing is a bit different. The strategy result depends upon expiry intervals and payout ratio.
My previous script was a try to resolve this but has some bugs in specific choices. The new version overcame those and added some new features useful for binary option strategy testing.
Assumption:
We are opening position at next candle after signal come
Chart interval is option expiry time.
We are taking the position at opening price
Our call will be profitable if we get a green candle and put will be profitable if we get a red candle
We can open only one trade at a time. So if we are in trade, subsequent signals will be ignored.
All Input Options:
Test Call/Put individually or both. Default BOTH
Select up to 5 Martingale levels. Default 2
Type of Martingale Trade. Default “SAME”
“SAME”: If you are trading CALL and incur a loss, you are taking CALL in subsequent Martingale levels.
“OPSITE”: if you are trading CALL and incur a loss, you are taking PUT in subsequent Martingale levels.
“FOLLOW CANDLE COLOR”: You are following candle color in Martingale levels, i.e if the loss candle is RED, you are taking PUT in subsequent candles.
“OPPOSITE CANDLE COLOR”: You are taking opposite candle color trade, i.e if the loss candle is RED, you are taking CALL in subsequent candle.
Select Specific Trading Session. Please select “USE SPECIFIC SESSION”. Default: TRUE
Put the investment amount per option. Default: 10
Payout ratio. Default: 80%
The strategy is taken from Vdub Binary Options SniperVX v1 (by @vdubus). I have deleted extra parts and kept only the necessary parts.
Result Table
Signal and Win Levels:
Signal and Loss:
Please note that Binary options trading is very risky. You must be aware of the risk and be willing to accept them in order to invest in binary options. Only invest what you can afford to lose. The past performance of any trading system, strategy, or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
FalconRed 5 EMA Indicator (Powerofstocks)Improved version:
This indicator is based on Subhashish Pani's "Power of Stocks" 5 EMA Strategy, which aims to identify potential buying and selling opportunities in the market. The indicator plots the 5 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and generates Buy/Sell signals with corresponding Target and Stoploss levels.
Subhashish Pani's 5 EMA Strategy is a straightforward approach. For intraday trading, a 5-minute timeframe is recommended for selling. In this strategy, you can choose to sell futures, sell calls, or buy puts as part of your selling strategy. The goal is to capture market tops by selling at the peak, anticipating a reversal for profitable trades. Although this strategy may result in frequent stop losses, they are typically small, while the minimum target should be at least three times the risk taken. By staying aligned with the trend, significant profits can be achieved. Subhashish Pani claims that this strategy has a 60% success rate.
Strategy for Selling (Short Future/Call/Stock or Buy Put):
1. When a candle completely closes above the 5 EMA (with no part of the candle touching the 5 EMA), it is considered an Alert Candle.
2. If the next candle is also entirely above the 5 EMA and does not break the low of the previous Alert Candle, ignore the previous Alert Candle and consider the new candle as the new Alert Candle.
3. Continue shifting the Alert Candle in this manner. However, when the next candle breaks the low of the Alert Candle, take a short trade (e.g., short futures, calls, stocks, or buy puts).
4. Set the stop loss above the high of the Alert Candle, and the minimum target should be 1:3 (at least three times the stop loss).
Strategy for Buying (Buy Future/Call/Stock or Sell Put):
1. When a candle completely closes below the 5 EMA (with no part of the candle touching the 5 EMA), it is considered an Alert Candle.
2. If the next candle is also entirely below the 5 EMA and does not break the high of the previous Alert Candle, ignore the previous Alert Candle and consider the new candle as the new Alert Candle.
3. Continue shifting the Alert Candle in this manner. However, when the next candle breaks the high of the Alert Candle, take a long trade (e.g., buy futures, calls, stocks, or sell puts).
4. Set the stop loss below the low of the Alert Candle, and the minimum target should be 1:3 (at least three times the stop loss).
Buy/Sell with Additional Conditions:
An additional condition is added to the buying/selling strategy:
1. Check if the closing price of the current candle is lower than the closing price of the Alert Candle for selling, or higher than the closing price of the Alert Candle for buying.
- This condition aims to filter out false moves, potentially preventing entering trades based on temporary fluctuations. However, it may cause you to miss out on significant moves, as you will enter trades after the candle closes, rather than at the breakout point.
Note: According to Subhashish Pani, the recommended timeframe for intraday buying is 15 minutes. However, this strategy can also be applied to positional/swing trading. If used on a monthly timeframe, it can be beneficial for long-term investing as well. The rules remain the same for all types of trades and timeframes.
If you need a deeper understanding of this strategy, you can search for "Subhashish Pani's (Power of Stocks) 5 EMA Strategy" on YouTube for further explanations.
Note: This strategy is not limited to intraday trading and can be applied to positional/swing
SMMA Bounce IndicatorThis indicator Looks for continuous retracements from Smoothed Moving Average periods of the user's choosing. This can be helpful in locating reversals and pullbacks with a quick glance. With this indicator, you have plenty of options to cater to your time period of choice as well as the freedom to change to colors that best suit your chart. This script was made in whole by SirvivalFX and utilized the (Built-in Script) "Smoothed Moving Average" with inspirations from rmunoz's Engulfing Candle Indicator. *DISCLAIMER*- This should be used with a plethora of knowledge and tools to work effectively and should not be used as a surefire trading tactic. You may use and alter this script in any form you like! :)
AFRHi everyone! Sorry for not posting anything for so long again. I will be active in July, after passing my university exams. I bought some S&C magazine archives, so await my new post strategies and indicator in July, as things are gonna get real interesting! But for now let me hand you some new and interesting stuff — AFR indicator.
Actually, this is my third time republishing this indicator after a big timeout because of the battles with TV mods on reference politics (which I lost).
This is indicator was originaly made by some user from other trading website, which I can't mention because of TV reference politics.
Which principles are behind AFR?
First we define our own low and high (OL and OH respectively), which are equal to:
OL = open - ATR * ATR_Factor
OH = open + ATR * ATR_Factor,
where ATR — Average True Range,
ATR_Factor — "Factor" in the settings — multiplier for ATR.
On each tick we remember AFR's value from previous bar, if it is not 0.
When OL is greater then AFR, then AFR is equal to OL. It means that there is probably an uptrend, so we adjust AFR accordingly.
When OH is lower then AFR, then AFR is equal to OH. It means that there is probably a downtrend, so we adjust AFR accordingly.
How to use?
Green AFR — bullish trend.
Red AFR — bearish trend.
Green AFR's triangle up — buy signal — appears when AFR changes it's colour from red to green.
Red AFR's triangle down— sell signal — appears when AFR changes it's colour from green to red.
ALERTS INCLUDED!
My personal ecommendations
- You can AFR as a tool to find short-term and middle-term trends, as it does it's best to find such trends;
- If are a scalper, then you probably should try AFR on low factor settings, as AFR alone can find good scalping entries.
- As AFR is a trend indicator, please use it with other confirmation indicator to make better entries.
Hope you will find this script useful.
Take your profits!
- Tarasenko Fyodor
FalconRed VIXThe FalconRed Vix indicator is a trading tool designed to provide insights into the potential price range of the Nifty 50 index in India. It utilizes the IndiaVix value, which represents the annual percentage change of the Nifty 50 price. By analyzing the IndiaVix, the FalconRed Vix indicator helps traders determine the upper and lower price thresholds within which the Nifty 50 could potentially trend over the course of a year.
For example, if the Nifty 50 is currently at 18,500 and the IndiaVix is 10, it suggests that, at the given level of volatility, the Nifty 50 may experience price fluctuations of up to 10% in either direction over the course of a year. Consequently, the price range projected by the FalconRed Vix indicator would be between 16,650 and 20,350.
The indicator further extends its analysis to shorter time frames, including monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 6-hour, 15-minute, 5-minute, and 1-minute intervals. By considering the Vix level, the FalconRed Vix indicator calculates the respective price ranges for these time frames.
When viewing the indicator on a chart, traders can observe a range band surrounding the current Nifty 50 price. The top line represents the upper threshold of the Nifty 50 price, while the bottom line represents the lower threshold, both based on the Vix level. This range band assists in determining potential selling points for out-of-the-money (OTM) options and aids in identifying entry or exit points for options and futures trading.
Traders can analyze the upper and lower threshold lines by drawing horizontal or trend lines, which can help identify potential breakouts or breakdowns. Furthermore, this analysis can assist in setting target prices and stop losses based on trend analysis.
It is important to note that the FalconRed Vix indicator is not a technical indicator used for determining stock buy or sell signals. Rather, it focuses on defining the potential price range based on the Vix level, which in turn aids in planning trading strategies such as short strangles, iron condors, and others.
Enhanced Strategy (Buy/Sell Signals)The provided script is an enhanced strategy that combines multiple indicators to generate buy and sell signals. Here's a breakdown of its features and usage:
Indicators used:
1. Moving Averages (MA): It uses two moving averages, fast and slow, to identify trend direction.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): It measures the momentum and overbought/oversold conditions of the asset.
3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): It indicates trend direction and potential trend reversals.
4. Stochastic Momentum Index (Stch Mtm): It identifies overbought and oversold conditions and potential reversals.
5. Awesome Oscillator: It helps to gauge the market momentum and potential trend changes.
How to use:
1. The strategy is designed to be used as a study on the TradingView platform.
2. Apply the script to your preferred chart and adjust the input parameters as desired.
3. The buy and sell signals will be plotted as green "Buy" and red "Sell" labels on the chart.
4. You can also observe the plotted indicators to gain insights into the market conditions.
Combination of indicators:
1. Buy Signal: The strategy generates a buy signal when the following conditions are met:
- The fast moving average crosses over the slow moving average (bullish crossover).
- RSI value is above the specified threshold (30 by default), indicating potential oversold conditions.
- MACD line is above the signal line, suggesting a bullish trend.
- Stch Mtm is above 50, indicating bullish momentum.
- The Awesome Oscillator is positive, implying bullish market sentiment.
2. Sell Signal: The strategy generates a sell signal when the following conditions are met:
- The fast moving average crosses under the slow moving average (bearish crossover).
- RSI value is below the specified threshold (100 - RSI threshold), indicating potential overbought conditions.
- MACD line is below the signal line, suggesting a bearish trend.
- Stch Mtm is below 50, indicating bearish momentum.
- The Awesome Oscillator is negative, implying bearish market sentiment.
Market conditions:
- The strategy aims to identify potential entry and exit points based on the combination of indicators.
- It can be used in various market conditions, but it's important to consider the overall market context, news events, and risk management principles.
- It's recommended to use this strategy as a tool for analysis and decision-making, and validate the signals with additional analysis before executing trades.
Please note that the effectiveness and profitability of any trading strategy can vary depending on various factors, including market conditions and individual trading preferences. It's always advisable to conduct thorough backtesting and consider risk management techniques before applying any strategy to live trading.
BUY/SELL + ADVANCE DECLINEThis script is a custom trading view indicator that helps to identify potential buy and sell signals based on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and SMA (Simple Moving Average) indicators. The script also identifies potential reversals using a combination of RSI and price action. It plots buy, sell, and reversal signals on the chart along with an SMA line. Additionally, it provides alerts based on the buy, sell, and reversal conditions.
Changes made to the original script:
Fixed the undeclared identifier 'c' error by calculating the difference between the current closing price and the previous closing price: c = close - close .
Added an "ADD Value Floating Label" to the chart. The label shows the difference between the current and previous closing prices (ADD value) along with a "Bullish" or "Bearish" indicator based on the value of 'c'. The label is positioned at the top right of the visible chart area and remains static.
Here's a summary of the major components of the script:
Input settings: Define the input parameters for RSI and SMA.
Calculation of RSI and SMA: Compute the RSI and SMA values based on the input parameters.
Color definitions: Define colors for different conditions and levels.
Condition definitions: Define various conditions for buy, sell, reversal, and other criteria.
Buy and sell conditions: Determine buy and sell signals based on RSI, SMA, and price action.
Reversal conditions: Identify potential reversals using RSI and price action.
Plot signals: Display buy, sell, and reversal signals on the chart.
Bar colors: Color the bars based on the identified signals.
Plot SMA: Display the SMA line on the chart.
Alert conditions: Set up alerts for buy, sell, and reversal conditions.
ADD Value Floating Label: Add a label to the chart showing the ADD value and a "Bullish" or "Bearish" indicator.
Put to Call Ratio CorrelationHello!
Excited to share this with the community!
This is actually a very simple indicator but actually usurpingly helpful, especially for those who trade indices such as SPX, IWM, QQQ, etc.
Before I get into the indicator itself, let me explain to you its development.
I have been interested in the use of option data to detect sentiment and potential reversals in the market. However, I found option data on its own is full of noise. Its very difficult if not impossible for a trader to make their own subjective assessment about how option data is reflecting market sentiment.
Generally speaking, put to call ratios generally range between 0.8 to 1.1 on average. Unless there is a dramatic pump in calls or puts causing an aggressive spike up to over this range, or fall below this range, its really difficult to make the subjective assessment about what is happening.
So what I thought about trying to do was, instead of looking directly at put to call ratio, why not see what happens when you perform a correlation analysis of the PTC ratio to the underlying stock.
So I tried this in pinescript, pulling for Tradingview's ticker PCC (Total Equity Put to Call Ratio) and using the ta.correlation function against whichever ticker I was looking at.
I played around with this idea a bit, pulled the data into excel and from this I found something interesting. When there is a very significant negative or positive correlation between PTC ratio and price movement, we see a reversal impending. In fact, a significant negative or positive correlation (defined as a R value of 0.8 or higher or -0.8 or lower) corresponded to a stock reversal about 92% of the time when data was pulled on a 5 minute timeframe on SPY.
But wait, what is a correlation?
If you are not already familiar, a correlation is simply a statistical relationship. It is defined with a Pearson R correlation value which ranges from 0 (no correlation) to 1 (significant positive correlation) and 0 to -1 (significant negative correlation).
So what does positive vs negative mean?
A significant positive correlation means the correlation is moving the same as the underlying. In the case of this indicator, if there is a significant positive correlation could mean the stock price is climbing at the same time as the PTC ratio.
Inversely, it could mean the stock price is falling as well as the PTC ratio.
A significant negative correlation means the correlation is moving in the opposite direction. So in this case, if the stock price is climbing and the PTC ratio is falling proportionately, we would see a significant negative correlation.
So how does this work in real life?
To answer this, let's get into the actual indicator!
In the image above, you will see the arrow pointing to an area of significant POSITIVE correlation.
The indicator will paint the bars on the actual chart purple (customizable of course) to signify this is an area of significant correlation.
So, in the above example this means that the PTC ratio is increase proportionately to the increase in the stock price in the SAME direction (Puts are going up proportionately to the stock price). Thus, we can make the assumption that the underlying sentiment is overwhelmingly BEARISH. Why? Because option trading activity is significantly proportionate to stock movement, meaning that there is consensus among the options being traded and the movement of the market itself.
And in the above example we will see, the stock does indeed end up selling:
In this case, IWM fell roughly 1 point from where there was bearish consensus in the market.
Let's use this same trading day and same example to show the inverse:
You will see a little bit later, a significant NEGATIVE correlation developed.
In this case identified, the stock wise RISING and the PTC ratio was FALLING.
This means that Puts were not being bought up as much as calls and the sentiment had shifted to bullish .
And from that point, IWM ended up going up an additional 0.75 points from where there was a significant INVERSE correlation.
So you can see that it is helpful for identifying reversals. But what is also can be used for is identifying areas of LOW conviction. Meaning, areas where there really is no relationship between option activity and stock movement. Let's take spy on the 1 hour timeframe for this example:
You can see in the above example there really is no consensus in the option trading activity with the overarching sentiment. The price action is choppy and so too is option trading activity. Option traders are not pushing too far in one direction or the other. We can also see the lack of conviction in the option trading activity by looking at the correlation SMA (the white line).
When a ticker is experiencing volatile and good movement up and down, the SMA will generally trade to the top of the correlation range (roughly + 1.0) and then make a move down to the bottom (roughly - 1.0), see the example below:
When the SMA is not moving much and accumulating around the centerline, it generally means a lot of indecision.
Additional Indicator Information:
As I have said, the indicator is very simple. It pulls the data from the ticker PCC and runs a correlation assessment against whichever ticker you are on.
PCC pulls averaged data from all equities within the market and is not limited to a single equity. As such, its helpful to use this with indices such as SPY, IWM and QQQ, but I have had success with using it on individual tickers such as NVDA and AMD.
The correlation length is defaulted to 14. You can modify it if you wish, but I do recommend leaving it at this as the default and the testing I have done with this have all been on the 14 correlation length.
You can chose to smooth the SMA over whichever length of period you wish as well.
When the indicator is approaching a significant negative or positive relationship, you will see the indicator flash red in the upper or lower band to signify the relationship. As well, the chart will change the bar colour to purple:
Everything else is pretty straight forward.
Let me know your questions/comments or suggestions around the indicator and its applications.
As always, no indicator is meant to provide a single, reliable strategy to your trading regimen and no indicator or group of indicators should be relied on solely. Be sure to do your own analysis and assessments of the stock prior to taking any trades.
Safe trades everyone!
Earnings Volatility AverageThanks to Dead_Hunter for his ROCEM code which inspired me.
This code looks back over X number of earnings cycles (default is 8) and X number of bars in each earnings cycle (default is 15) to calculate the largest move in each defined earnings period.
The count of earnings cycles starts with the latest past earnings date. The code ignores all future earnings dates in its calculations.
Then the code finds the average price move of those X number of earnings periods.
Using the average price move value the code displays the Price Increase and Price Decrease based on the current price bar.
You can also define how many legs you would create for the option trade and the total commission to open and total commission to close, allowing you to better define your possible breakeven points.
This code was developed to use on a Daily chart.
Put-Call Bias IndicatorThe Put-Call Bias Indicator provides a visual representation of the relative bias towards put options using CBOE data. This script calculates the Put/All ratio, displaying the difference as compared to an even 50% ratio as columns on the chart. A positive value indicates a higher proportion of puts being bought compared to the total number of options contracts.
The indicator uses weekly CBOE data to determine the Put/Call ratio, making it suitable for analyzing longer-term trends in options trading sentiment. The gray columns represent the bias towards puts, with the green horizontal line at 0 acting as a reference point to quickly identify the prevailing bias.
In addition to providing an overview of market sentiment, this indicator can also be used as a contrarian indicator. A high Put/All ratio may suggest that the market is overly bearish, potentially signaling a bullish reversal, while a low ratio may indicate an overly bullish market, potentially pointing to a bearish reversal. Please note that this indicator should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and indicators for a comprehensive understanding of the market.
(This is a new version of an old script bc previous version was deleted by TradingView; republishing with a more verbose description)
Earnings Option Play HelperThanks to Dead_Hunter to the base code which I modified.
This code will now use the last 21 daily candles of the earnings cycle to calculate the average percent price move.
Then using Dead_Hunters code looking at the past 8 earnings cycles, the final average percent price move is calculated.
This is the Average value which is displayed and used to calculate the Price Increase and Price Decrease on the up Earning date.
this script can be useful for planning Strangle and Straddle options trades.
Automated Option Price - Black-Scholes modelPlease make sure you are plotting this indicator on DAILY bars, not doing so will lead to unintended results. Also, make sure that you keep up to date the Risk-free interest rate, which you can consult (for U.S.) on ycharts.com.
This is an indicator that is meant to be used for Options Day Trading, but it can be useful for mid-term or leaps for I also enabled the possibility for user to input manually the Strike and Expiration date. I based the calculation on the Black-Scholes model. Variables included in the calculation are:
-Stock price (S): The current price of the underlying asset (e.g., a stock).
-Strike price (K): The predetermined price at which the option can be exercised.
-Time to expiration (T): The time remaining until the option expires, expressed as a fraction of a year.
-Volatility (σ): The annualized standard deviation of the stock's returns, which is a measure of the stock's price fluctuations.
-Risk-free interest rate (r): The annualized return on a risk-free investment, often approximated by the yield on a government bond.
The only variable I excluded from the original model was the Dividend yield (q).
U S E R I N P U T S:
1. AUTOMATIC calculations enabled:
i) Strike price (K):
Automatically calculate the strike price for both call and put options based on the stock's closing price. The logic follows a set of rules to determine the strike prices which will usually be Out-of-the-Money (OTM):
-If the stock's closing price is between 1 and 60, the call strike price is rounded up to the nearest whole number, while the put strike price is rounded down to the nearest whole number.
-If the stock's closing price is between 60 and 90, the call strike price is rounded up to the nearest whole number and increased by 1, while the put strike price is rounded down to the nearest whole number and decreased by 1.
-If the stock's closing price is between 90 and 120, the call strike price is rounded up to the nearest whole number and increased by 2, while the put strike price is rounded down to the nearest whole number and decreased by 2.
-If the stock's closing price is above 120, the call strike price is rounded up to the nearest multiple of 5, while the put strike price is rounded down to the nearest multiple of 5.
By applying these rules, I just tried to ensure that the automatically calculated strike prices are tailored to the stock's price range, allowing for more accurate option pricing calculations.
ii) Time to expiration (T):
The indicator will consider this week’s expiration contracts (Friday) only when the current day/bar = Monday. If Tuesday or older it will consider the expiration date of the next week’s Friday (because we are not Theta gamblers, right?).
If you are not comfortable with above for whatever reason, you can always…
2. Enter inputs MANUALLY
First make sure you UNTICK the boxes for automatic calculation.
i) Strike price (K) – Self-explanatory
ii) Time to expiration (T) – Just make sure that the horizon you are inputting matches with the next parameter (e.g. you would not input a Monthly risk-free interest rate for a Leap).
iii) Risk-free interest rate (r) – You can pull this data from the web. Here’s the link I used to define the value that this indicator was launched with:
ycharts.com
Don’t get obsessed with updating this daily if you are using this for day trading, you will notice that weekly may be more than enough.
V O L A T I L I T Y
Not option to manually input Volatility so I’ll explain how it is calculated in this script:
I considered two measures of volatility; one is derived calculating the annualized volatility using the standard deviation of daily returns and the second one is the ATR-based annualized volatility. I then used a ‘combined’ approach with the harmonic mean and the arithmetic mean of these results which can help account for the variability in the option prices calculated with different volatility estimates, which can be more robust when dealing with outliers or skewed data. I back tested with some samples of actual option prices and found that this approach is the one that got results closer to the actual bids.
T A B L E
Nomenclature to read rows is:
Option Strike Price | Type of Option (Put or Call) @ The current Close or at 50% level of bar | Estimated Price
*The Option expiration Date showed as dd-MMM as part of the headers.
Second and third row (color 1): These will show the calculated value for the Put/Call, assuming you are buying at the CURRENT price of the stock.
Third and Fifth row (color2): These will show the calculated value for the Put/Call, assuming you buy at the 50% level of the current bar (this is the value that the contract WOULD HAVE at the 50% level of the bar).
If you plot the indicator during market hours it will obviously update as price moves, this is an intended feature.
L I M I T A T I O N S
The Black-Scholes model, like many other models, has its limitations and will oftentimes provide inaccurate option prices in all market conditions. High volatility events, such as earnings announcements, can lead to significant price fluctuations that are not fully captured by the model.
The model assumes that the stock price follows a continuous random walk with constant volatility, but in reality, volatility can change over time, and stock prices can exhibit jumps, especially around significant events like earnings announcements. This can cause the model to underestimate the true option price in such situations.
Please make sure that you first back test on the symbols you trade to ensure the information presented by this indicator will suit your trading strategy. You will find that the delta between the proposed price of the indicator versus the actual price may differ significantly in some symbols while for others it will be very close. For instance, today (13APR23), the prices for AMD, DIS, AAPL (puts only), were very close to actual bids, whereas TSLA differ significantly (but then again, take a look at the calendar and this last symbol is having earnings next week which may add a premium to the contracts)… I am sure you will get your own conclusions and applicable use cases based on the data you test with.
As always, be wise and methodical on the investment or trading decisions you make!
Options Price CalculatorIn the team, we continue to explore and expand the boundaries of TradingView.
For now, there is not much an options trader can do with options in TradingView.
We wanted to change that and created a simple option pricer.
You can set up in parameters a set of strikes, implied volatility, and days to expiry.
The indicators will take a risk-free rate from US01Y and the underlying price from your current chart.
It will compute prices and greeks for both put and call options.
Thanks to @MUQWISHI for helping code it.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not indicate future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as well as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
Leverage HelperCalculate position size & leverage the easy way!
- Drag & drop entry + stop loss level
- Input account size + risk size in the settings
- Calculation plotted on table
Swing BoxesHey, folks!
Sorry for not posting anything for such a long time. Don't have enough ideas and resources to get inspiration, so trying to brainstorm good stuff in my free time from university studies.
But despite my absence more I now have 300+ people subscribed to me! Thanks, guys, for keeping interest for my work, as I still do value each boost on my script, for real :)
So here is new script , enjoy!
Swing Boxes is pretty simple indicator, which plots signals with "boxes", that help you determine price targets.
What is the idea behind?
I wanted to make indicator, that could help me make swing trades with nice accuracy (as all we want, lol), and for signal criteria I decided to use highs and lows of the price . Then I started coding some ideas to see which of them could be worthy. And, actually, Swing Boxes appeared to be good. But the thing is, that I didn't intend to build them, they appeared as an anomaly from my code :)
I started to explore this anomaly (it looked super cool, but was repainting hard) to fix it and I succeeded, now Swng Boxes don't repaint.
The main idea is that when price goes above it's highest value of p-bars back or below it's lowest value p-bars back, then there is a some god probability, that price will continue to follow current direction.
And the things about Swing Boxes is that when there is a good trend movement, the boxes become super small to track price movement and when price breaks out in the counter-trend direction, then you will be able to almost perfectly catch a top or a bottom! But most of the signals won't be so high-quality, so don't think that is this some holy grail to trade swing-trading, because it is not.
Signal logic
Quick hint:
- epsilon(variable e ) = ATR * ATR_Factor . It is used to determine box's sensitivity to price changes.
If previous close is higher than variable, which contains previous HIGHEST value (variable h in the code), then update the this variable by taking up-to-date highest value and add epsilon( e ) to it;
If previous close is lower than variable, which contains previous LOWEST value (variable l in the code), then update the this variable by taking up-to-date lowest value and substract epsilon( e ) from it.
Variables decribed above ( h and l ) are box's top and bottom respectively, so if price cross them, it is logical to update it is value.
Settings and what is what
Swing Box Period - numbers fo bars in the past to find highest and lowest price from. The bigger the input, the bigger the boxes will be;
ATR Period;
ATR Factor - multiplier for ATR, determines sensitivity for price changes. The bigger this input, the more accurate signals will be, but less the probability that the signal will be on the top or a bottom.
Show Boxes? - when chosen, plots box's top and bottom. Used to determine price targets.
Show Baseline? - when chosen, plot's baseline, which midline between box's top and bottom.
How to use?
This indicator plots green and red triangles by default.
- Green triangle --> Buy ;
- Red triangle --> Sell ;
As I've said before, many signals from indicator will probably be garbage, so you need to tune settings for youself, so it could satisfy you .
You can enable showing boxes to see box's top and bottom. Box's bottom --> your entry, top --> your profit target.
If you find a way to sort bad signals, you will be able to trade with super cool RR, because the signal from Swing Boxes appear to be a good one, there is almost 95% probability, that price will not even come close to your stop loss, so you can trade with super small stop-losses! Smaller stop-loss --> smaller risk --> smaller loss --> bigger profit, it is that easy.
Also you can enable baseline to use at as your 1st TP, and box's top/bottom as 2nd TP, closing 25% on TP1 and the rest on TP2 (but that is just mine recommendation, you can use different RM (risk-management), if you want).
Also you can use baseline as your S/R (Support/Resistance) line, test it out on your charts.
And please, hear me out: as all other indicators out here on the TradingView, Swing Boxes ARE NOT meant to be traded in solo! Many bad signal can go in a row, so PLEASE find your way to filter out bad signals with other indicators.
You can see here the example of a garabge-class signal in a row, so be don't be deluded!
I do hope that somebody will suggest and idea to improve this thing, as I personally don't have enough time to think about it because of my university studies, but I will probably try it make this thing better throughout the time.
And that's it for now, folks! If you have any ideas for scripts, strategies or anything else, feel free to DM me or leave a comment, I will check it.
Hope you will find this script useful.
Take your profits!
- Tarasenko Fyodor
Weekly Options Expiry Candle V.2In India Weekly options expire on Thursday and that creates a different price action candle than the week timeframe.
My previous script Weekly Options Expiry Candle has some limitations. This script overcame those limitations and added some features.
You can use this in any intraday time frame candle.
It will show:
All expiry candle in box format
Expiry OHLC label
Pivot (Floor or Fibonacci) based on expiry OHLC data
Developing Expiry candle and Pivot
A table showing expiry range(high-low) and Expiry body abs(open-close) stats.
You can turn on or off any feature.
Please let me know if you found this script useful or have any questions or suggestions.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
NSE:NIFTY
4C Options Expected Move (Weekly + 0DTE)This indicator plots the calculated Expected Move for BOTH Weekly and Zero Dated Expiration (0DTE) Daily options, for a quick visual reference.
Please Note: This indicator is different from our original "4C Expected Move (Weekly Options)" indicator, as it now packages the ability to ALSO plot 0DTE options expected moves along with Weekly expected moves. Many other newer features have also been implemented.
Background Information
The Expected Move (EM) is the amount that a stock is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price, based on the current level of options pricing and implied volatility.
This range can be viewed as possible support and resistance, or, once price gets outside of the range, institutional hedging actions can accelerate the move in that direction.
It can be useful to know what the weekly EM range is for a stock to understand the probabilities of the overall distance, direction and volatility for the week.
About the Indicator
This indicator plots the calculated Expected Move for BOTH Weekly and Zero Dated Expiration (0DTE) options, for a quick visual reference.
For the weekly EM, the range is based on the Weekly close of the prior week.
For the Daily EM based on 0DTE options, the range is based on the Daily close of the prior day.
The indicator will automatically start a new weekly EM plot at the beginning of the week, and a new daily EM at the beginning of each day.
The EM values must be updated weekly and/or daily.
Features
Plots the EM for the week
Plots the EM for the day, for symbols that offer daily expiration options
Plots the 2 Standard Deviation EM for both the weekly and daily EM
Labels with calculated values are plotted near the levels for quick visual aid
Settings
Can toggle weekly EM on/off
Can toggle Daily EM on/off
Can toggle 2 Standard Deviation lines on/off
Can toggle labels for all EM on/off
Robust line settings
Can adjust label location left/right based on personal preference
Can enter symbol into settings as a reference
Handy instructions in the settings
How To Set Up The Indicator
To use this indicator you must have access to a broker with options data (not available on Tradingview).
Usually, you can look at the stock's option chain to find the weekly expected move.
You will have to do your own research to find where this information is displayed depending on your broker. You may also need to find the information elsewhere if your broker does not have this information.
You can also do your calculation of the EM using the following formula (please do your own research):
Expected Move = Option Price x Implied Volatility x Square Root of Time
See screenshot example below
This is the Thinkorswim platform's option chain, and the Implied Volatility % and the calculated EM are on the right side of the option chain.
The Expected Move is circled in blue. Use the +- number in parentheses, NOT the % value.
For the weekly EM, input the number that corresponds to the weekly option into the indicator. This must be done on a weekly basis, and It is typically best to use the EM for the next week expiration that is generated AFTER the Friday close and/or before the Monday open of the upcoming week.
For the daily EM, input the number that corresponds to the daily 0DTE option into the indicator. This must be done on a daily basis, and it is typically best to use the EM value for the 0DTE option that is generated the night before (after market close), or before the market opens for that 0DTE. .
SPY 1 Minute Day TraderWhen scalping options, users are looking for where breakouts are going to occur instead of sitting thru areas choppy price action that drain delta and cause them to lose value even if price is up trending. This script tries to identify when a trend reversal is expected based on one minute price action on the SPY. It alerts users to prepare for potential breakout when 5 out of the 6 key optimized parameters are discovered by showing a white L or S. Once all six trigger, it informs the user at the close of that candle with a golden triangle with Pivot Up or Pivot Down. As scalping options is something that is expected to be short in duration, a take profit and stop loss of 30 cents of price actions is established. If five or more parameters occur after the pivot is initiated, then stop losses and take profits are adhered to; however, if there are less, then it waits to take profit or stop the trade, as likely it is just noise and it will finish trend with an additional breakout.
This script has been created to take into account how the following variables impact trend for SPY 1 Minute:
ema vs 13 ema : A cross establishes start of trend
MACD (Line, Signal & Slope) : If you have momentum
ADX : if you are trending
RSI : If the trend has strength
The above has been optimized to determine pivot points in the trend using key values for these 6 indicators
bounce up = ema5 > ema13 and macdLine < .5 and adx > 20 and macdSlope > 0 and signalLine > -.1 and rsiSignal > 40
bounce down = ema5 < ema13 and macdLine > -.5 and adx > 20 and signalLine < 0 and macdSlope < 0 and rsiSignal < 60
White L's indicate that 5 of 6 conditions are met due to impending uptrend w/ missing one in green below it
Yellow L's indicate that 6 of 6 conditions still are met
White S's indicate that 5 of 6 conditions are met due to impending downtrend w/ missing condition in red above it
Yellow S's indicate that 6 of 6 conditions still are met
After a downtrend or uptrend is established, once it closes it can't repeat for 10 minutes
Won't open any trades on last two minutes of any hours to avoid volatility
Will close any open trades going into last minute of hour to avoid large overnight random swings.
