TASC 2023.12 Growth and Value Switching System█ OVERVIEW
This script implements a rotation system for trading value and growth ETFs, as developed by Markos Katsanos and detailed in the article titled 'Growth Or Value?' in TASC's December 2023 edition of Traders' Tips . The purpose of this script is to demonstrate how short-term momentum can be employed to track market trends and provide clarity on when to switch between value and growth.
█ CONCEPTS
The central concept of the presented rotation strategy is based on the observation that the stock market undergoes cycles favoring either growth or value stocks. Consequently, the script introduces a momentum trading system that is designed to switch between value and growth equities based on prevailing market conditions. Specifically tailored for long-term index investors, the system focuses on trading Vanguard's value and growth ETFs ( VTV and VUG ) on a weekly timeframe.
To identify the ETF likely to outperform, the script uses a custom relative strength indicator applied to both VTV and VUG in comparison with an index ( SPY ). To minimize risk and drawdowns during bear markets, when both value and growth experience downtrends, the script employs the author's custom volume flow indicator (VFI) and blocks trades when its reading indicates money outflow . Positions are closed if the relative strength of the current open trade ETF falls below that of the other ETF for two consecutive weeks and is also below its moving average. Additionally, the script implements a stop-loss when the ETF is trading below its 40-week moving average, but only during bear markets.
The script plots the relative strengths of the value and growth equities along with the signals triggered by the aforementioned rules. Information about the current readings of the relative strength and volume flow indicators, along with the current open position, is displayed in a table.
█ CALCULATIONS
The script uses the request.security() function to gather price data for both equities and the reference index. Custom relative strength and volume flow indicators are calculated based on the formulas presented in the original article. By default, the script employs the same parameters for these indicators as proposed in the original article for VTV and VUG on a weekly timeframe.
Cerca negli script per "Cycle"
Correlational cyclesCorrelation is a statistical measure that expresses the extent to which two variables are linearly related (meaning they change together at a constant rate). It's a common tool for describing simple relationships without making a statement about cause and effect.
This script allows the user to input a multiplier to reverse the symbol input. This enables the user to look at a correlation measure between VIX and QQQ and the same time.. And get a better of understanding of what is not alligning and what is. the peaks in correlations usually signal a coming volatile period.
Stable Coin Dominance RSIThe Stable Coin Dominance RSI evaluates the relative dominance of stable coins within the crypto ecosystem as compared to the total market cap. As stable coin dominance rises, it suggests that market participants are exiting out of crypto assets and into dollar pegged stable coins. The opposite is true inversely; as stable coin dominance diminishes, it suggests that market participants are divesting out of stable coins and into crypto assets.
Stable coin dominance can be expressed as a percentage of the total market cap as follows: Stable Coins / Total Crypto. The Stable Coin Dominance RSI indicator uses this percentage and converts it into an oscillator using the formula for the relative strength index.
The calculation for the indicator is: RSI
The users can select from USDT and USDC, two most dominant stable tokens by market cap, and compare their relative dominance against Bitcoin and the alt market.
The Stable Coin Dominance RSI may be useful on larger timeframes when attempting to identify the market’s appetite for risk along with oversold and undersold readings which may indicate pivots or turn arounds along market extremes.
The limitation of the indicator lies in the fact that stable coins continue to make up a growing percentage of the total market cap over time and thus comparisons to earlier cycles will not be a perfect apples-to-apples evaluation. This being said, the smoothing function of the RSI’s look back helps to moderate these comparative differences.
Trend IdentifierTrend Identifier for 1D BTC.USD
It smoothens a closely following moving average into a polynomial like plot.
And assumes 4 stage cycles based on the first and second derivatives.
Green: Bull / Exponential Rise
Yellow: Distribution
Red: Bear / Exponential Drop
Blue: Accumulation
Red --> Blue --> Green: indicates the start of a bull market
Green --> Yellow --> Red: indicates the start of a bear market
Green --> Yellow: Start of a distribution phase, take profits
Red --> Blue: Start of a accumulation phase, DCA
10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread by zdmreLong-term bond yield reflects inflation. Short-term bond yields are tools used to predict Fed's interest rate policy. Spread between the two represents four cycles of an economy.
1. Growth
Short-term yield rises as interest rates rise. Spread narrows.
2. Slow growth
Central bank raises interest rates faster and short-term yield exceeds long-term yield. Spread turns negative.
3. Recession
High interest rates lead to more defaults. Inflation caps consumption. Central bank lowers interest rate to stimulate the economy and short-term yield falls. Spread widens.
4. Recovery
Central bank continues easing. Spread remains wide and yield curve remains steep.
0 = Recession Risk
2.6 = Recovery Plan
DYOR
Financial Astrology Neptune DeclinationWe don't know much about the impact of Neptune declination in the financial markets but if we infer the effect of Neptune traveling toward the zero declination we can assume that the effects of illusion, inflation, scams and economic bubble could growth during the next decade giving raise to the super bubble of the blockchain industry. Only future data will give us a hint of interpretation of Neptune declination cycles, perhaps in a decade, PineScript and web clients have evolved enough so we can load 100 years of declination data to analyse the behaviour in major US indexes that provide enough years of data for a more deep study.
Note: The Neptune declination indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the speed is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Moon LongitudeMoon energy represent the masses, crowds, public places, children and emotions. The transit of the Moon through the zodiacal signs will color the crowd emotional responses that fluctuate based on the elemental qualities of the signs: fire (energetic and impulsive), earth (rigid, static, patient), water (assimilation, transformation, humor fluctuations), air (expansion, fervent, germination).
The daily average speed of the Moon is 13 degrees, for this reason the emotional elemental energy is transforming in average every 2 days and few hours, this mood fluctuations produces the short term instinctive and emotional actions performed by traders that forget the precise mathematical / statistical approach in favor of irrational and emotional impulses.
Based on statistical buy/sell frequency analysis we discovered that for BTC-USD, the Moon is usually bullish in zodiac signs: Aries, Libra, Scorpio, Aquarius and Pisces, the most relevant bullish sign is "Aquarius", from 206 observations in all the BTC-USD price history where Moon was in this sign the 60% of those days the price increased compared to the previous day. The bearish zodiac signs for BTC-USD are: Taurus, Cancer, Leo, Sagittarius and Capricorn, the most relevant bearish sign is "Capricorn".
Interestingly this zodiac sign locations tends to fluctuate during some periods of time and from the last 10 observations of the Moon transiting through Aries we noted that 7 of the 10 observations coincide with a dip, sometimes the Moon in Aries indicate the reversal of the short term trend, this is kind of expected considering that when Moon approaches Taurus the fall becomes more likely due to the fact that Moon in Taurus is a bearish signal.
With this indicator there is unlimited possibilities to explore across different markets and complementing with Moon phases this may be the perfect financial astrology indicator for those intraday traders that keep positions only for few hours.
We encourage you to analyze the Moon zodiac sign cycles in different markets and share with us your observations, leave us a comment with your research outcomes. Happy trading!
Note: The Moon longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the longitude is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart reference timezone.
Morun Astro Trend MAs cross StrategyAstrology machine learning cycles indicator signals with technical MAs indicators strategy, based on signals index of Github project github.com
Hurst Cycle Channel Clone %BA %B of lazy bears Hurst Cycle Channel Clone
Remember to thank him for his great scripts.
With this you can easily see when the close is above,below or in the short or medium cycle channel.
Adaptive Zero Lag EMA Strategy [Ehlers + Ric]Behold! A strategy that makes use of Ehlers research into the field of signal processing and wins so consistently, on multiple time frames AND on multiple currency pairs.
The Adaptive Zero Lag EMA (AZLEMA) is based on an informative report by Ehlers and Ric .
I've modified it by using Cosine IFM, a method by Ehlers on determining the dominant cycle period without using fast-Fourier transforms
Instead, we use some basic differential equations that are simplified to approximate the cycle period over a 100 bar sample size.
The settings for this strategy allow you to scalp or swing trade! High versatility!
Since this strategy is frequency based, you can run it on any timeframe (M1 is untested) and even have the option of using adaptive settings for a best-fit.
>Settings
Source : Choose the value for calculations (close, open, high + low / 2, etc...)
Period : Choose the dominant cycle for the ZLEMA (typically under 100)
Adaptive? : Allow the strategy to continuously update the Period for you (disables Period setting)
Gain Limit : Higher = faster response. Lower = smoother response. See for more information.
Threshold : Provides a bit more control over entering a trade. Lower = less selective. Higher = More selective. (range from 0 to 1)
SL Points : Stop Poss level in points (10 points = 1 pip)
TP Points : Take Profit level in points
Risk : Percent of current balance to risk on each trade (0.01 = 1%)
www.mesasoftware.com
www.jamesgoulding.com(Measuring%20Cycles).doc
In-Phase & Quadrature IFMThis indicator provides a continuous measurement of a securities' dominant cycle period, based on Ehlers ever-impressive reports and analysis tools.
This method uses in-phase and quadrature analysis, making use of the imaginary domain. This method is prone to favor longer periods and can
allow noise to greatly affect the end result.
>What does that even mean?
Essentially, you get a real-time (low lag) plot of the cycle period in bars. If the I-Q IFM reads "16" then you can expect the distance between swing highs and swing lows to be approx. 16 bars.
>How is this useful?
When you throw an RSI or MACD on your chart, you can now set the "Period" or "Length" value with confidence.
Knowing the dominant cycle period tells you that price reversal will occur around these intervals.
>Extending.
The better way to use this tool is by extending the script into any indicators that use a length or period that is set manually.
Simply use the "len" variable in your custom script to replace your input values.
Now you have a way to adaptively set the period value, using signal processing theory instead of just intuition ;)
PM if you have questions.
Cosine IFM [Ehlers]This indicator provides a continuous measurement of a securities' dominant cycle period, based on Ehlers ever-impressive reports and analysis tools.
>What does that even mean?
Essentially, you get a real-time (low lag) plot of the cycle period in bars. If the COS IFM reads "16" then you can expect the distance between swing highs and swing lows to be approx. 16 bars.
>How is this useful?
When you throw an RSI or MACD on your chart, you can now set the "Period" or "Length" value with confidence.
Knowing the dominant cycle period tells you that price reversal will occur around these intervals.
>Extending.
The better way to use this tool is by extending the script into any indicators that use a length or period that is set manually.
Simply use the "len" variable in your custom script to replace your input values.
Now you have a way to adaptively set the period value, using signal processing theory instead of just intuition ;)
PM if you have questions.
MAGNUS® CyclesThis indicator will help you if you struggle making any profit in bitcoin.
It generates very few signals with very nice profit potential ( around 100% this year ! ).
Perfect tool for longterm swing traders and new traders that need help figuring out the midterm trend.
Use it with these parameters only:
weekly: 13, 5, 12
daily: 92, 21, 96
Volume-Adjusted Schaff Trend Cycle (VASTC)Volume-Adjusted Schaff Trend Cycle (VASTC)
The VASTC is a fairly fast-moving oscillator designed to identify trends early and signal when trends may be nearing their end. While it can be used for both trend-following and mean-reversion strategies , it shines in trend-following setups. It’s particularly useful for catching the start of a trend and giving early warnings that a trend might end soon, making it a valuable addition to a multi-indicator system.
How It Works:
The VASTC adapts the traditional Schaff Trend Cycle by adjusting the MACD component with volume data. This volume-adjusted MACD is run through two stochastic processes , applying exponential smoothing to enhance responsiveness. Volume sensitivity allows the VASTC to adapt dynamically to periods of high or low trading activity, providing more reliable trend signals.
Recommended Use:
Use VASTC in confluence with other indicators to confirm trend entries and exits. It’s best for identifying early trend setups rather than sustaining prolonged trend trades. When used alongside other indicators, especially those with a longer-term outlook or momentum based trend indicators, you’ll gain a clearer signal for potential exits or entries. Always backtest the VASTC on your chosen assets to determine the most effective input parameters, as the defaults may not suit all markets or assets. Different assets behave differently, and adjustments in parameters can improve its ability to analyze the assets you're looking at.
Parameters:
Length : Sets the primary smoothing length.
Fast/Slow Length : Adjust the speed of the volume-adjusted MACD component.
Factor : Controls the final smoothing applied to the STC.
Overbought/Oversold Levels : Defines overbought/oversold levels.
Experiment with these settings to customize the VASTC to your trading strategy and asset.
Disclaimer : This indicator is a tool to complement your trading analysis and should not be used in isolation. Always backtest and use other confluence signals for best results. The assets I looked at when making this indicator are almost certainly different than what you're looking at.
Cash Cycle BandCash cycle band shows the number of days and the profit margin compared to the previous period (it does not indicate how profitable the company is, but how well it is managed).
Cash cycle band consists of 6 sections:
1. DPO is the days payables outstanding in the "red" followed by O/D which is overdraft or short-term debt (if any) .
2. DIO is the days inventory outstanding in the "green" followed by classified inventory (if any) consists of finished goods. work in process and raw materials.
3. DSO is days sales outstanding in "blue".
4. DWC is days converting working capital to revenue in "orange".
5. CCC is days converting inventory and resources to cash flow in "yellow".
6. GPM is gross profit margin and OPM is operating profit margin.
The "😱" emoji indicates a value if it increases by more than or decreases by less than 20%, e.g.
- DPO, finished goods, work in process, raw materials, GPM, OPM is decreasing.
- O/D, DIO, DSO, DWC, CCC is increasing.
The "🔥" emoji indicates a value if it increases by more than or decreases, e.g.
- DPO, finished goods, work in process, raw materials, GPM, OPM is increasing.
- O/D, DIO, DSO, DWC, CCC is decreasing.
The order of the list depends on the day of each item, the more days more high.
Schaff Trend Cycle + Double MAThis strategy uses two different moving averages to determine a trend. It opens a position on a pullback from a trend.
Conditions for buy signal are:
►Crossover out of Shaff Trend Cycle's extreme levels
►The price is above its short period exponential moving average.
►A short period exponential moving average is above a long period exponential moving average.
*Conditions for sell are the opposite.
All in all, I don't think it needs to be on your chart but it can be optimized and even successful on some timeframes.
Shaff Trend Cycle solution was provided by @everget, I converted his script to Pine v.4, added exponential averages and created an algorithm for backtesting.
AAEN With Auto Length Adjust to CycleAverage Absolute Error Normalization With Auto Length Adjust to Cycle Length
Indicator by alexgrover, I just added the auto cycle length
Saturn–Pluto Cycle
Indicator colors background of the chart in the following way:
Saturn - Pluto Cycle in conjunction: Blue
Saturn - Pluto Cycle in opposition: Yellow
While opposition periods are indicated according to the actual date ranges an opposition occurs, conjunctions last only for one day.
Conjunctions indicated with this indicator mark a period around the actual conjunction date.
The actual date a conjunction occurs is indicated in the script.
Following the dates which were considered for this indicator:
Dates of Saturn–Pluto Conjunctions
October 5, 1914 at 2° Cancer (recurrence on May 20, 1915)
August 11, 1947 at 13° Leo
November 8, 1982 at 27° Libra
January 12, 2020 at 22° Capricorn
Dates of Saturn–Pluto Oppositions
February 17, 1931 – December 13, 1931 at 19°–21° Capricorn–Cancer (conjunct their respective North and South Nodes)
April 23, 1965 – February 20, 1966 at 14°–17° Pisces–Virgo
August 5, 2001 – May 26, 2002 at 12°–16° Gemini–Sagittarius (conjunct the lunar nodes)
BTC Cycle High IndicatorWith high probability show BTC price cycle highs. When price touches the white line, and when yellow and red moving averages cross, we will most likely have our next BTC cycle price high.
Based on Philip Swift's analysis (@positivecrypto)
Dominant Cycle Tuned Rsi BackgroundBackground version of the Dominant Cycle Tuned Rsi Background published here
Ehlers Cycle StrategyThis uses Ehlers methods to create a cycle trading strategy.
It finds the dominant cycle in the market, then creates filters out noise to create an oscillator. It then creates a trigger line using momentum to predict a reversal in price. Finally, Ehlers Empirical Mode Discriminator is used to evaluate trends and eliminate trading against the trend.
Shout out to HPotter, Everget, and LazyBear for implementing many of Ehlers indicators, which I sampled to create this indicator and strategy.
Pi Cycle Top & Bottom OscillatorThis TradingView script implements the Pi Cycle Top & Bottom Oscillator, a technical indicator designed to identify potential market tops and bottoms using moving average relationships. Here's a detailed breakdown:
Indicator Overview
Purpose: The indicator calculates an oscillator based on the ratio of a 111-day simple moving average (SMA) to double the 350-day SMA. It identifies potential overbought (market tops) and oversold (market bottoms) conditions.
Visualization: The oscillator is displayed in a standalone pane with dynamic color coding to represent different market conditions.
Inputs
111-Day Moving Average Length (length_111): Adjustable parameter for the short-term moving average. Default is 111 days.
350-Day Moving Average Length (length_350): Adjustable parameter for the long-term moving average. Default is 350 days.
Overheat Threshold (upper_threshold): Percentage level above which the market is considered overheated. Default is 100%.
Cooling Down Threshold (lower_threshold): Percentage level below which the market is cooling down. Default is 75%.
Calculation
Moving Averages:
111-day SMA of the closing price.
350-day SMA of the closing price.
Double the 350-day SMA (
𝑚
𝑎
_
2
_
350
=
𝑚
𝑎
_
350
×
2
ma_2_350=ma_350×2).
Oscillator:
Ratio of the 111-day SMA to double the 350-day SMA, expressed as a percentage:
oscillator
=
𝑚
𝑎
_
111
𝑚
𝑎
_
2
_
350
×
100
oscillator=
ma_2_350
ma_111
×100
Market Conditions
Overheated Market (Potential Top): Oscillator >= Overheat Threshold (100% by default). Highlighted in red.
Cooling Down Market (Potential Bottom): Oscillator <= Cooling Down Threshold (75% by default). Highlighted in green.
Normal Market Condition: Oscillator is between these thresholds. Highlighted in blue.
Visual Features
Dynamic Oscillator Plot:
Color-coded to indicate market conditions:
Red: Overheated.
Green: Cooling down.
Blue: Normal condition.
Threshold Lines:
Red Dashed Line: Overheat Threshold.
Green Dashed Line: Cooling Down Threshold.
White Dashed Line: Additional high-value marker at 30 for reference.
Alerts
Overheat Alert: Triggers when the oscillator crosses the overheat threshold, signaling a potential market top.
Cooling Down Alert: Triggers when the oscillator crosses the cooling down threshold, signaling a potential market bottom.
Use Case
This script is particularly useful for traders seeking early signals of market reversals. The thresholds and dynamic color coding provide visual cues and alerts to aid decision-making in identifying overbought or oversold conditions.
