0_dteUSAGE
This script guages the probability of an underlying moving a certain amount on expiration day, to aid the popular "0 dte" strategy. The script counts how many next-day moves exceeded a given magnitude in the past, under similar conditions. The inputs are:
mark_mode:
- "open": measures the magnitude as "open to close"--a true 0 dte.
- "previous close": for lazy people who don't want to wake up early. measures magnitude from the previous day's close.
move_mode:
- "percent": measures moves that exceed a given percentage.
- "absolute": measures moves that exceed a point value.
move-dir: measure only up moves, down moves, or both.
vol_model: the model for realized volatility. (may add more later).
min_vol: only measure moves when realized vol is above this value.
max_vol: only measure moves when realized vol is below this value.
precision: number of digits printed in the output table.
EXAMPLE:
- mark_mode: "previous close"
- move_mode: "percent"
- move_dir: "up"
- move_mag: 0.07
- vol_model: hv30
- min_vol: 0.2
- max_vol: 0.5
These settings will count the number of trading days that closed 7% higher than the previous day's close, when the previous day's realized volatility (annualized) was between 20% and 50%. The outputs are:
- current vol: green plot. Today's realized vol. Shown for convenience.
- max and min vol: red plots. Also shown for convenience.
- count: the number of days that exceeded the chosen magnitude, when the previous day's realized volatility was within the chosen bounds.
- total: the total number of days where realized volatility was within the chosen bounds
- probability: count / total. the percentage of days that exceeded the move when volatility was within the bounds.
- move: plotted as a purple line. purple "X" labels are plotted above
- bars where the move exceeded the magnitude threshold and volatility was in-bounds. a "hit".
CONCLUSION
This script is based on the idea that realized volatility has some bearing on future volatility. By seeing what happened in the past when volatility was close to its current value, we may be able to assess the probability that our short put will be in the money, tomorrow, and our account devastated.
NOTE: Unlike many of my other scripts, all percentages--both inputs and outputs--are given in fractional form. E.g., 0.01 means 1%.
Cerca negli script per "Volatility"
RSI-Adaptive T3 + Squeeze Momentum Strategy✅ Strategy Guide: RSI-Adaptive T3 + Squeeze Momentum Strategy
📌 Overview
The RSI-Adaptive T3 + Squeeze Momentum Strategy is a dynamic trend-following strategy based on an RSI-responsive T3 moving average and Squeeze Momentum detection .
It adapts in real-time to market volatility to enhance entry precision and optimize risk.
⚠️ This strategy is provided for educational and research purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
🎯 Strategy Objectives
The main objective of this strategy is to catch the early phase of a trend and generate consistent entry signals.
Designed to be intuitive and accessible for traders from beginner to advanced levels.
✨ Key Features
RSI-Responsive T3: T3 length dynamically adjusts according to RSI values for adaptive trend detection
Squeeze Momentum: Combines Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels to identify trend buildup phases
Visual Triggers: Entry signals are generated from T3 crossovers and momentum strength after squeeze release
📊 Trading Rules
Long Entry:
When T3 crosses upward, momentum is positive, and the squeeze has just been released.
Short Entry:
When T3 crosses downward, momentum is negative, and the squeeze has just been released.
Exit (Reversal):
When the opposite condition to the entry is triggered, the position is reversed.
💰 Risk Management Parameters
Pair & Timeframe: BTC/USD (30-minute chart)
Capital (simulated): $30,00
Order size: `$100` per trade (realistic, low-risk sizing)
Commission: 0.02%
Slippage: 2 pips
Risk per Trade: 5%
Number of Trades (backtest period): 181
📊 Performance Overview
Symbol: BTC/USD
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Date Range: January 1, 2024 – July 3, 2025
Win Rate: 47.8%
Profit Factor: 2.01
Net Profit: 173.16 (units not specified)
Max Drawdown: 5.77% or 24.91 (0.79%)
⚙️ Indicator Parameters
Indicator Name: RSI-Adaptive T3 + Squeeze Momentum
RSI Length: 14
T3 Min Length: 5
T3 Max Length: 50
T3 Volume Factor: 0.7
BB Length: 27 (Multiplier: 2.0)
KC Length: 20 (Multiplier: 1.5, TrueRange enabled)
🖼 Visual Support
T3 slope direction, squeeze status, and momentum bars are visually plotted on the chart,
providing high clarity for quick trend analysis and execution.
🔧 Strategy Improvements & Uniqueness
Inspired by the RSI Adaptive T3 by ChartPrime and Squeeze Momentum Indicator by LazyBear ,
this strategy fuses both into a hybrid trend-reversal and momentum breakout detection system .
Compared to traditional trend-following methods, it excels at capturing early trend signals with greater sensitivity .
✅ Summary
The RSI-Adaptive T3 + Squeeze Momentum Strategy combines momentum detection with volatility-responsive risk management.
With a strong balance between visual clarity and practicality, it serves as a powerful tool for traders seeking high repeatability.
⚠️ This strategy is based on historical data and does not guarantee future profits.
Always use appropriate risk management when applying it.
Connors VIX Reversal III invented by Dave LandryThis strategy is based on trading signals derived from the behavior of the Volatility Index (VIX) relative to its 10-day moving average. The rules are split into buying and selling conditions:
Buy Conditions:
The VIX low must be above its 10-day moving average.
The VIX must close at least 10% above its 10-day moving average.
If both conditions are met, a buy signal is generated at the market's close.
Sell Conditions:
The VIX high must be below its 10-day moving average.
The VIX must close at least 10% below its 10-day moving average.
If both conditions are met, a sell signal is generated at the market's close.
Exit Conditions:
For long positions, the strategy exits when the VIX trades intraday below its previous day’s 10-day moving average.
For short positions, the strategy exits when the VIX trades intraday above its previous day’s 10-day moving average.
This strategy is primarily a mean-reversion strategy, where the market is expected to revert to a more normal state after the VIX exhibits extreme behavior (i.e., large deviations from its moving average).
About Dave Landry
Dave Landry is a well-known figure in the world of trading, particularly in technical analysis. He is an author, trader, and educator, best known for his work on swing trading strategies. Landry focuses on trend-following and momentum-based techniques, teaching traders how to capitalize on shorter-term price swings in the market. He has written books like "Dave Landry on Swing Trading" and "The Layman's Guide to Trading Stocks," which emphasize practical, actionable trading strategies.
About Connors Research
Connors Research is a financial research firm known for its quantitative research in financial markets. Founded by Larry Connors, the firm specializes in developing high-probability trading systems based on historical market behavior. Connors’ work is widely respected for its data-driven approach, including systems like the RSI(2) strategy, which focuses on short-term mean reversion. The firm also provides trading education and tools for institutional and retail traders alike, emphasizing strategies that can be backtested and quantified.
Risks of the Strategy
While this strategy may appear to offer promising opportunities to exploit extreme VIX movements, it carries several risks:
Market Volatility: The VIX itself is a measure of market volatility, meaning the strategy can be exposed to sudden and unpredictable market swings. This can result in whipsaws, where positions are opened and closed in rapid succession due to sharp reversals in the VIX.
Overfitting: Strategies based on specific conditions like the VIX closing 10% above or below its moving average can be subject to overfitting, meaning they work well in historical tests but may underperform in live markets. This is a common issue in quantitative trading systems that are not adaptable to changing market conditions .
Mean-Reversion Assumption: The core assumption behind this strategy is that markets will revert to their mean after extreme movements. However, during periods of sustained trends (e.g., market crashes or rallies), this assumption may break down, leading to prolonged drawdowns.
Liquidity and Slippage: Depending on the asset being traded (e.g., S&P 500 futures, ETFs), liquidity issues or slippage could occur when executing trades at market close, particularly in volatile conditions. This could increase costs or worsen trade execution.
Scientific Explanation of the Strategy
The VIX is often referred to as the "fear gauge" because it measures the market's expectations of volatility based on options prices. Research has shown that the VIX tends to spike during periods of market stress and revert to lower levels when conditions stabilize . Mean reversion strategies like this one assume that extreme VIX levels are unsustainable in the long run, which aligns with findings from academic literature on volatility and market behavior.
Studies have found that the VIX is inversely correlated with stock market returns, meaning that higher VIX levels often correspond to lower stock prices and vice versa . By using the VIX’s relationship with its 10-day moving average, this strategy aims to capture reversals in market sentiment. The 10% threshold is designed to identify moments when the VIX is significantly deviating from its norm, signaling a potential reversal.
However, academic research also highlights the limitations of relying on the VIX alone for trading signals. The VIX does not predict market direction, only volatility, meaning that it cannot indicate the magnitude of price movements . Furthermore, extreme VIX levels can persist longer than expected, particularly during financial crises.
In conclusion, while the strategy is grounded in well-established financial principles (e.g., mean reversion and the relationship between volatility and market performance), it carries inherent risks and should be used with caution. Backtesting and careful risk management are essential before applying this strategy in live markets.
Volatility Adjusted Composite RSI with SMA and EMA SignalsOverview
The script "VAC - RSI with SMA and EMA Signals" combines the traditional Relative Strength Index (RSI) with Time-based RSI (T-RSI), and adjusts it for volatility to create a Composite RSI (C-RSI). The script further uses Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to generate signals for potential trading opportunities. In the "VAC - RSI with SMA and EMA Signals" script, the combination of price, time, and volatility works as follows:
Price: The script calculates the traditional RSI based on price changes over a specified period.
Time: Alongside the price-based RSI, a Time-based RSI (T-RSI) is calculated, which considers the number of upward and downward closes over the same period.
Volatility: Volatility is integrated into the Composite RSI (C-RSI) by adjusting it with a Z-score based on a standard deviation of closing prices.
These three factors work together to create a more holistic and robust indicator.
How can it be used?
This script is used to identify potential overbought and oversold conditions in the market. It plots the VAC-RSI, SMA, and EMA on a chart, along with overbought and oversold levels, providing visual signals to the trader. When the EMA is below the SMA, it is a bullish signal, and vice versa for a bearish signal.
Default Values for Different Inputs:
Price RSI Weightage (%): 65
Unified Period for RSI & T-RSI: 14
C-RSI SMA Period: 13
C-RSI EMA Period: 33
C-RSI Bull Trend Support: 35
C-RSI Bear Trend Resistance: 65
Use Volatility Adjusted C-RSI (VAC-RSI): true
Standard Deviation Period: 14
Volatility Scaling Factor (α): 5
These values can be adjusted according to the trading strategy to optimize the signals for different assets or timeframes.
Strategies this Can be Used for:
The script can be used in various trading strategies including:
Trend Following: By observing the crosses of EMA and SMA, traders can follow the trend.
Reversion to the Mean: Using the overbought and oversold levels to identify potential reversal points.
Breakout: Identifying breakout points using the Bull and Bear Market Support and Resistance levels.
Comparison with the Standard Indicator:
Enhanced Sensitivity to Market Conditions
Improved Signal Quality
Versatility
Volatility Adjustment
Interpretation of Output Values:
VAC-RSI Value:
The script provides additional overbought (80) and oversold (20) lines to help identify extreme conditions.
SMA and EMA Values:
When the EMA is below the SMA, it is generally considered a bullish signal.
When the EMA is above the SMA, it is generally considered a bearish signal.
The cross of EMA and SMA can be used as a trigger for entry or exit points.
Bull and Bear Market Support and Resistance Lines:
The Bull Market VAC-RSI Support (default at 35) and Bear Market VAC-RSI Resistance (default at 65) lines can be used to identify potential breakout or breakdown points.
In a bull market, if the VAC-RSI stays above the support line, it indicates a strong uptrend.
In a bear market, if the VAC-RSI stays below the resistance line, it indicates a strong downtrend.
Loro Vola StopThis indicator is a variation of a chandelier volatility stop using an average true range. The indicator draws a green support line in an uptrend and a red resistance line in a downtrend. The signals normally should be used as exit triggers.
Lancelot vstop intraday trending strategyDear all,
Free strategy again.
I found using 3 volatility stop with different settings could be very helpful when trading an intraday trending market.
With the ATR setting or 5, 10, 15, we can weed out many false break.
Vstop setting is OHLC4.
On the other hand, this strategy also utilize Renko as part of the strategy, so you could say this strategy is mainly an intraday break out trend following strategy.
Works well on BTCUSD XBTUSD, as well as other major liquid alt Pairs.
And lastly,
Save Hong Kong, the revolution of our times.
CloudRest ATR based cloudThis is an indicator I have been working on for the past 2 years, developed specifically for cryptocurrency.
It is primarily a trend following indicator with great success and it performs the best in 4hrs to the weekly chart.
There are two components of this indicator.
The baseline from Ichimoku cloud and volatility stop .
baseline period = 26
volatility stop = 1.5ATR, 3
You can view this as the main component of a trend following system but you will need other confirmation indicators to confirm your entry.
Feel free to modify the script for your own system.
Feel free to follow me on twitter @Lancelot_Auger
I will be posting more content in the future, stay tuned.
And lastly,
Free hong kong, the revolution of our time!
TRBTrue Range Bands; the 'Supertrend', also known as a volatility stop, using a 14 period length and 3x multiplier.
Liquid Pulse Liquid Pulse by Dskyz (DAFE) Trading Systems
Liquid Pulse is a trading algo built by Dskyz (DAFE) Trading Systems for futures markets like NQ1!, designed to snag high-probability trades with tight risk control. it fuses a confluence system—VWAP, MACD, ADX, volume, and liquidity sweeps—with a trade scoring setup, daily limits, and VIX pauses to dodge wild volatility. visuals include simple signals, VWAP bands, and a dashboard with stats.
Core Components for Liquid Pulse
Volume Sensitivity (volumeSensitivity) controls how much volume spikes matter for entries. options: 'Low', 'Medium', 'High' default: 'High' (catches small spikes, good for active markets) tweak it: 'Low' for calm markets, 'High' for chaos.
MACD Speed (macdSpeed) sets the MACD’s pace for momentum. options: 'Fast', 'Medium', 'Slow' default: 'Medium' (solid balance) tweak it: 'Fast' for scalping, 'Slow' for swings.
Daily Trade Limit (dailyTradeLimit) caps trades per day to keep risk in check. range: 1 to 30 default: 20 tweak it: 5-10 for safety, 20-30 for action.
Number of Contracts (numContracts) sets position size. range: 1 to 20 default: 4 tweak it: up for big accounts, down for small.
VIX Pause Level (vixPauseLevel) stops trading if VIX gets too hot. range: 10 to 80 default: 39.0 tweak it: 30 to avoid volatility, 50 to ride it.
Min Confluence Conditions (minConditions) sets how many signals must align. range: 1 to 5 default: 2 tweak it: 3-4 for strict, 1-2 for more trades.
Min Trade Score (Longs/Shorts) (minTradeScoreLongs/minTradeScoreShorts) filters trade quality. longs range: 0 to 100 default: 73 shorts range: 0 to 100 default: 75 tweak it: 80-90 for quality, 60-70 for volume.
Liquidity Sweep Strength (sweepStrength) gauges breakouts. range: 0.1 to 1.0 default: 0.5 tweak it: 0.7-1.0 for strong moves, 0.3-0.5 for small.
ADX Trend Threshold (adxTrendThreshold) confirms trends. range: 10 to 100 default: 41 tweak it: 40-50 for trends, 30-35 for weak ones.
ADX Chop Threshold (adxChopThreshold) avoids chop. range: 5 to 50 default: 20 tweak it: 15-20 to dodge chop, 25-30 to loosen.
VWAP Timeframe (vwapTimeframe) sets VWAP period. options: '15', '30', '60', '240', 'D' default: '60' (1-hour) tweak it: 60 for day, 240 for swing, D for long.
Take Profit Ticks (Longs/Shorts) (takeProfitTicksLongs/takeProfitTicksShorts) sets profit targets. longs range: 5 to 100 default: 25.0 shorts range: 5 to 100 default: 20.0 tweak it: 30-50 for trends, 10-20 for chop.
Max Profit Ticks (maxProfitTicks) caps max gain. range: 10 to 200 default: 60.0 tweak it: 80-100 for big moves, 40-60 for tight.
Min Profit Ticks to Trail (minProfitTicksTrail) triggers trailing. range: 1 to 50 default: 7.0 tweak it: 10-15 for big gains, 5-7 for quick locks.
Trailing Stop Ticks (trailTicks) sets trail distance. range: 1 to 50 default: 5.0 tweak it: 8-10 for room, 3-5 for fast locks.
Trailing Offset Ticks (trailOffsetTicks) sets trail offset. range: 1 to 20 default: 2.0 tweak it: 1-2 for tight, 5-10 for loose.
ATR Period (atrPeriod) measures volatility. range: 5 to 50 default: 9 tweak it: 14-20 for smooth, 5-9 for reactive.
Hardcoded Settings volLookback: 30 ('Low'), 20 ('Medium'), 11 ('High') volThreshold: 1.5 ('Low'), 1.8 ('Medium'), 2 ('High') swingLen: 5
Execution Logic Overview trades trigger when confluence conditions align, entering long or short with set position sizes. exits use dynamic take-profits, trailing stops after a profit threshold, hard stops via ATR, and a time stop after 100 bars.
Features Multi-Signal Confluence: needs VWAP, MACD, volume, sweeps, and ADX to line up.
Risk Control: ATR-based stops (capped 15 ticks), take-profits (scaled by volatility), and trails.
Market Filters: VIX pause, ADX trend/chop checks, volatility gates. Dashboard: shows scores, VIX, ADX, P/L, win %, streak.
Visuals Simple signals (green up triangles for longs, red down for shorts) and VWAP bands with glow. info table (bottom right) with MACD momentum. dashboard (top right) with stats.
Chart and Backtest:
NQ1! futures, 5-minute chart. works best in trending, volatile conditions. tweak inputs for other markets—test thoroughly.
Backtesting: NQ1! Frame: Jan 19, 2025, 09:00 — May 02, 2025, 16:00 Slippage: 3 Commission: $4.60
Fee Typical Range (per side, per contract)
CME Exchange $1.14 – $1.20
Clearing $0.10 – $0.30
NFA Regulatory $0.02
Firm/Broker Commis. $0.25 – $0.80 (retail prop)
TOTAL $1.60 – $2.30 per side
Round Turn: (enter+exit) = $3.20 – $4.60 per contract
Disclaimer this is for education only. past results don’t predict future wins. trading’s risky—only use money you can lose. backtest and validate before going live. (expect moderators to nitpick some random chart symbol rule—i’ll fix and repost if they pull it.)
About the Author Dskyz (DAFE) Trading Systems crafts killer trading algos. Liquid Pulse is pure research and grit, built for smart, bold trading. Use it with discipline. Use it with clarity. Trade smarter. I’ll keep dropping badass strategies ‘til i build a brand or someone signs me up.
2025 Created by Dskyz, powered by DAFE Trading Systems. Trade smart, trade bold.
Kernel Regression Envelope with SMI OscillatorThis script combines the predictive capabilities of the **Nadaraya-Watson estimator**, implemented by the esteemed jdehorty (credit to him for his excellent work on the `KernelFunctions` library and the original Nadaraya-Watson Envelope indicator), with the confirmation strength of the **Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI)** to create a dynamic trend reversal strategy. The core idea is to identify potential overbought and oversold conditions using the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope and then confirm these signals with the SMI before entering a trade.
**Understanding the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope:**
The Nadaraya-Watson estimator is a non-parametric regression technique that essentially calculates a weighted average of past price data to estimate the current underlying trend. Unlike simple moving averages that give equal weight to all past data within a defined period, the Nadaraya-Watson estimator uses a **kernel function** (in this case, the Rational Quadratic Kernel) to assign weights. The key parameters influencing this estimation are:
* **Lookback Window (h):** This determines how many historical bars are considered for the estimation. A larger window results in a smoother estimation, while a smaller window makes it more reactive to recent price changes.
* **Relative Weighting (alpha):** This parameter controls the influence of different time frames in the estimation. Lower values emphasize longer-term price action, while higher values make the estimator more sensitive to shorter-term movements.
* **Start Regression at Bar (x\_0):** This allows you to exclude the potentially volatile initial bars of a chart from the calculation, leading to a more stable estimation.
The script calculates the Nadaraya-Watson estimation for the closing price (`yhat_close`), as well as the highs (`yhat_high`) and lows (`yhat_low`). The `yhat_close` is then used as the central trend line.
**Dynamic Envelope Bands with ATR:**
To identify potential entry and exit points around the Nadaraya-Watson estimation, the script uses **Average True Range (ATR)** to create dynamic envelope bands. ATR measures the volatility of the price. By multiplying the ATR by different factors (`nearFactor` and `farFactor`), we create multiple bands:
* **Near Bands:** These are closer to the Nadaraya-Watson estimation and are intended to identify potential immediate overbought or oversold zones.
* **Far Bands:** These are further away and can act as potential take-profit or stop-loss levels, representing more extreme price extensions.
The script calculates both near and far upper and lower bands, as well as an average between the near and far bands. This provides a nuanced view of potential support and resistance levels around the estimated trend.
**Confirming Reversals with the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI):**
While the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope identifies potential overextended conditions, the **Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI)** is used to confirm a potential trend reversal. The SMI, unlike a traditional stochastic oscillator, oscillates around a zero line. It measures the location of the current closing price relative to the median of the high/low range over a specified period.
The script calculates the SMI on a **higher timeframe** (defined by the "Timeframe" input) to gain a broader perspective on the market momentum. This helps to filter out potential whipsaws and false signals that might occur on the current chart's timeframe. The SMI calculation involves:
* **%K Length:** The lookback period for calculating the highest high and lowest low.
* **%D Length:** The period for smoothing the relative range.
* **EMA Length:** The period for smoothing the SMI itself.
The script uses a double EMA for smoothing within the SMI calculation for added smoothness.
**How the Indicators Work Together in the Strategy:**
The strategy enters a long position when:
1. The closing price crosses below the **near lower band** of the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope, suggesting a potential oversold condition.
2. The SMI crosses above its EMA, indicating positive momentum.
3. The SMI value is below -50, further supporting the oversold idea on the higher timeframe.
Conversely, the strategy enters a short position when:
1. The closing price crosses above the **near upper band** of the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope, suggesting a potential overbought condition.
2. The SMI crosses below its EMA, indicating negative momentum.
3. The SMI value is above 50, further supporting the overbought idea on the higher timeframe.
Trades are closed when the price crosses the **far band** in the opposite direction of the trade. A stop-loss is also implemented based on a fixed value.
**In essence:** The Nadaraya-Watson Envelope identifies areas where the price might be deviating significantly from its estimated trend. The SMI, calculated on a higher timeframe, then acts as a confirmation signal, suggesting that the momentum is shifting in the direction of a potential reversal. The ATR-based bands provide dynamic entry and exit points based on the current volatility.
**How to Use the Script:**
1. **Apply the script to your chart.**
2. **Adjust the "Kernel Settings":**
* **Lookback Window (h):** Experiment with different values to find the smoothness that best suits the asset and timeframe you are trading. Lower values make the envelope more reactive, while higher values make it smoother.
* **Relative Weighting (alpha):** Adjust to control the influence of different timeframes on the Nadaraya-Watson estimation.
* **Start Regression at Bar (x\_0):** Increase this value if you want to exclude the initial, potentially volatile, bars from the calculation.
* **Stoploss:** Set your desired stop-loss value.
3. **Adjust the "SMI" settings:**
* **%K Length, %D Length, EMA Length:** These parameters control the sensitivity and smoothness of the SMI. Experiment to find settings that work well for your trading style.
* **Timeframe:** Select the higher timeframe you want to use for SMI confirmation.
4. **Adjust the "ATR Length" and "Near/Far ATR Factor":** These settings control the width and sensitivity of the envelope bands. Smaller ATR lengths make the bands more reactive to recent volatility.
5. **Customize the "Color Settings"** to your preference.
6. **Observe the plots:**
* The **Nadaraya-Watson Estimation (yhat)** line represents the estimated underlying trend.
* The **near and far upper and lower bands** visualize potential overbought and oversold zones based on the ATR.
* The **fill areas** highlight the regions between the near and far bands.
7. **Look for entry signals:** A long entry is considered when the price touches or crosses below the lower near band and the SMI confirms upward momentum. A short entry is considered when the price touches or crosses above the upper near band and the SMI confirms downward momentum.
8. **Manage your trades:** The script provides exit signals when the price crosses the far band. The fixed stop-loss will also close trades if the price moves against your position.
**Justification for Combining Nadaraya-Watson Envelope and SMI:**
The combination of the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope and the SMI provides a more robust approach to identifying potential trend reversals compared to using either indicator in isolation. The Nadaraya-Watson Envelope excels at identifying potential areas where the price is overextended relative to its recent history. However, relying solely on the envelope can lead to false signals, especially in choppy or volatile markets. By incorporating the SMI as a confirmation tool, we add a momentum filter that helps to validate the potential reversals signaled by the envelope. The higher timeframe SMI further helps to filter out noise and focus on more significant shifts in momentum. The ATR-based bands add a dynamic element to the entry and exit points, adapting to the current market volatility. This mashup aims to leverage the strengths of each indicator to create a more reliable trading strategy.
Trend Magic Enhanced [AlgoAlpha]🔥✨ Trend Magic Enhanced - Boost Your Trend Analysis! 🚀📈
Introducing the Trend Magic Enhanced indicator by AlgoAlpha, a powerful tool designed to help you identify market trends with greater accuracy. This advanced indicator combines the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Average True Range (ATR) to calculate dynamic support and resistance levels, known as the Trend Magic. By smoothing the Trend Magic with various moving average types, this indicator provides clearer trend signals and helps you make more informed trading decisions.
Key Features :
🎯 Unique Trend Identification : Combines CCI and ATR to detect market trends and potential reversals.
🔄 Customizable Smoothing : Choose from SMA, EMA, SMMA, WMA, or VWMA to smooth the Magic Trend for clearer signals.
🎨 Flexible Appearance Settings : Customize colors for bullish and bearish trends to suit your charting preferences.
⚙️ Adjustable Parameters : Modify CCI period, ATR period, ATR multiplier, and smoothing length to align with your trading strategy.
🔔 Alert Notifications : Set alerts for trend shifts to stay ahead of market movements.
📈 Visual Signals : Displays trend direction changes directly on the chart with up and down arrows.
Quick Guide to Using the Trend Magic Enhanced Indicator
🛠 Add the Indicator : Add the indicator to your chart by pressing the star icon to add it to favorites. Customize settings such as CCI period, ATR multiplier, ATR period, smoothing options, and colors to match your trading style.
📊 Analyze the Chart : Observe the Trend Magic line and the color-coded trend signals. When the Trend Magic line turns bullish (e.g., green), it indicates an upward trend, and when it turns bearish (e.g., red), it indicates a downward trend. Use the visual arrows to spot trend direction changes.
🔔 Set Alerts : Enable alerts to receive notifications when a trend shift is detected, so you can act promptly on trading opportunities without constantly monitoring the chart.
How It Works:
The Trend Magic Enhanced indicator integrates the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Average True Range (ATR) to calculate a dynamic Trend Magic line. By adjusting price levels based on CCI values—upward when CCI is positive and downward when negative—and factoring in ATR for market volatility, it creates adaptive support and resistance levels. Optionally smoothed with various moving averages to reduce noise, the indicator changes line color based on trend direction, highlights trend changes with arrows, and provides alerts for significant shifts, aiding traders in identifying potential entry and exit points.
Enhancements Over the Original Trend Magic Indicator
The Trend Magic Enhanced indicator significantly refines the trend identification method of the original Trend Magic script by introducing customizable smoothing options and additional analytical features. While the original indicator determines trend direction solely based on the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) crossing above or below zero and adjusts the Magic Trend line using the Average True Range (ATR), the enhanced version allows users to smooth the Magic Trend line with various moving average types (SMA, EMA, SMMA, WMA, VWMA). This smoothing reduces market noise and provides clearer trend signals. Additionally, the enhanced indicator incorporates price action analysis by detecting crossovers and crossunders of price with the Magic Trend line, and it visually marks trend changes with up and down arrows on the chart. These improvements offer a more responsive and accurate trend detection compared to the original method, enabling traders to identify potential entry and exit points more effectively.
Enhance your trading strategy with the Trend Magic Enhanced indicator by AlgoAlpha and gain a clearer perspective on market trends! 🌟📈
[blackcat] L3 Inverted VixFix Indicator with RSI ScalingThis pine script that creates a custom indicator called the Inverted VixFix Indicator with RSI Scaling. This indicator combines two well-known technical indicators - the VixFix and the RSI - to create a more comprehensive view of market conditions.
The VixFix is a technical indicator that helps identify market trends and volatility. It is based on the highest close of the past 22 bars and the lowest low of the same period. The VixFix is calculated as 100 times the difference between the highest close and the current low divided by the highest close. The indicator is inverted, meaning that high values indicate low volatility and low values indicate high volatility.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a momentum indicator that measures the strength of price action in a given period. It is calculated based on the closing prices of the selected asset. The RSI is scaled to a range between 0 and 100, with values above 70 indicating overbought conditions and values below 30 indicating oversold conditions.
The Inverted VixFix Indicator with RSI Scaling combines these two indicators to give a more comprehensive view of market conditions. The RSI is first scaled to a range between 0 and 100 using the RSI Length, RSI Overbought, and RSI Oversold inputs. The Inverted VixFix is then scaled to the same range as the RSI using the RSI Overbought and RSI Oversold inputs. The two indicators are then combined to create the Inverted VixFix Indicator with RSI Scaling.
To smooth out the RSI, the script also uses the ALMA (Arnaud Legoux Moving Average) function. This function is a type of moving average that uses a variable smoothing factor to give more weight to recent price action. In this script, the ALMA is applied to the scaled RSI with a length of 3, a offset of 0.58, and a sigma of 6.
To help visualize the indicator, the script also creates visual elements such as threshold lines and fills. The Bull Threshold line is drawn at the RSI Overbought level and the Bear Threshold line is drawn at the RSI Oversold level. A fill is then created between these two lines using the color purple and opacity set to 70%.
Overall, the Inverted VixFix Indicator with RSI Scaling is a useful tool for traders looking for a more comprehensive view of market conditions. By combining the VixFix and RSI indicators, this script provides a more nuanced view of market trends and volatility.
The VoVix Experiment The VoVix Experiment
The VoVix Experiment is a next-generation, regime-aware, volatility-adaptive trading strategy for futures, indices, and more. It combines a proprietary VoVix (volatility-of-volatility) anomaly detector with price structure clustering and critical point logic, only trading when multiple independent signals align. The system is designed for robustness, transparency, and real-world execution.
Logic:
VoVix Regime Engine: Detects pre-move volatility anomalies using a fast/slow ATR ratio, normalized by Z-score. Only trades when a true regime spike is detected, not just random volatility.
Cluster & Critical Point Filters: Price structure and volatility clustering must confirm the VoVix signal, reducing false positives and whipsaws.
Adaptive Sizing: Position size scales up for “super-spikes” and down for normal events, always within user-defined min/max.
Session Control: Trades only during user-defined hours and days, avoiding illiquid or high-risk periods.
Visuals: Aurora Flux Bands (From another Original of Mine (Options Flux Flow): glow and change color on signals, with a live dashboard, regime heatmap, and VoVix progression bar for instant insight.
Backtest Settings
Initial capital: $10,000
Commission: Conservative, realistic roundtrip cost:
15–20 per contract (including slippage per side) I set this to $25
Slippage: 3 ticks per trade
Symbol: CME_MINI:NQ1!
Timeframe: 15 min (but works on all timeframes)
Order size: Adaptive, 1–2 contracts
Session: 5:00–15:00 America/Chicago (default, fully adjustable)
Why these settings?
These settings are intentionally strict and realistic, reflecting the true costs and risks of live trading. The 10,000 account size is accessible for most retail traders. 25/contract including 3 ticks of slippage are on the high side for MNQ, ensuring the strategy is not curve-fit to perfect fills. If it works here, it will work in real conditions.
Forward Testing: (This is no guarantee. I've provided these results to show that executions perform as intended. Test were done on Tradovate)
ALL TRADES
Gross P/L: $12,907.50
# of Trades: 64
# of Contracts: 186
Avg. Trade Time: 1h 55min 52sec
Longest Trade Time: 55h 46min 53sec
% Profitable Trades: 59.38%
Expectancy: $201.68
Trade Fees & Comm.: $(330.95)
Total P/L: $12,576.55
Winning Trades: 59.38%
Breakeven Trades: 3.12%
Losing Trades: 37.50%
Link: www.dropbox.com
Inputs & Tooltips
VoVix Regime Execution: Enable/disable the core VoVix anomaly detector.
Volatility Clustering: Require price/volatility clusters to confirm VoVix signals.
Critical Point Detector: Require price to be at a statistically significant distance from the mean (regime break).
VoVix Fast ATR Length: Short ATR for fast volatility detection (lower = more sensitive).
VoVix Slow ATR Length: Long ATR for baseline regime (higher = more stable).
VoVix Z-Score Window: Lookback for Z-score normalization (higher = smoother, lower = more reactive).
VoVix Entry Z-Score: Minimum Z-score for a VoVix spike to trigger a trade.
VoVix Exit Z-Score: Z-score below which the regime is considered decayed (exit).
VoVix Local Max Window: Bars to check for local maximum in VoVix (higher = stricter).
VoVix Super-Spike Z-Score: Z-score for “super” regime events (scales up position size).
Min/Max Contracts: Adaptive position sizing range.
Session Start/End Hour: Only trade between these hours (exchange time).
Allow Weekend Trading: Enable/disable trading on weekends.
Session Timezone: Timezone for session filter (e.g., America/Chicago for CME).
Show Trade Labels: Show/hide entry/exit labels on chart.
Flux Glow Opacity: Opacity of Aurora Flux Bands (0–100).
Flux Band EMA Length: EMA period for band center.
Flux Band ATR Multiplier: Width of bands (higher = wider).
Compliance & Transparency
* No hidden logic, no repainting, no pyramiding.
* All signals, sizing, and exits are fully explained and visible.
* Backtest settings are stricter than most real accounts.
* All visuals are directly tied to the strategy logic.
* This is not a mashup or cosmetic overlay; every component is original and justified.
Disclaimer
Trading is risky. This script is for educational and research purposes only. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always test in simulation before live trading.
Proprietary Logic & Originality Statement
This script, “The VoVix Experiment,” is the result of original research and development. All core logic, algorithms, and visualizations—including the VoVix regime detection engine, adaptive execution, volatility/divergence bands, and dashboard—are proprietary and unique to this project.
1. VoVix Regime Logic
The concept of “volatility of volatility” (VoVix) is an original quant idea, not a standard indicator. The implementation here (fast/slow ATR ratio, Z-score normalization, local max logic, super-spike scaling) is custom and not found in public TradingView scripts.
2. Cluster & Critical Point Logic
Volatility clustering and “critical point” detection (using price distance from a rolling mean and standard deviation) are general quant concepts, but the way they are combined and filtered here is unique to this script. The specific logic for “clustered chop” and “critical point” is not a copy of any public indicator.
3. Adaptive Sizing
The adaptive sizing logic (scaling contracts based on regime strength) is custom and not a standard TradingView feature or public script.
4. Time Block/Session Control
The session filter is a common feature in many strategies, but the implementation here (with timezone and weekend control) is written from scratch.
5. Aurora Flux Bands (From another Original of Mine (Options Flux Flow)
The “glowing” bands are inspired by the idea of volatility bands (like Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channels), but the visual effect, color logic, and integration with regime signals are original to this script.
6. Dashboard, Watermark, and Metrics
The dashboard, real-time Sharpe/Sortino, and VoVix progression bar are all custom code, not copied from any public script.
What is “standard” or “common quant practice”?
Using ATR, EMA, and Z-score are standard quant tools, but the way they are combined, filtered, and visualized here is unique. The structure and logic of this script are original and not a mashup of public code.
This script is 100% original work. All logic, visuals, and execution are custom-coded for this project. No code or logic is directly copied from any public or private script.
Use with discipline. Trade your edge.
— Dskyz, for DAFE Trading Systems
Tremor Tracker [theUltimator5]Tremor Tracker is a volatility monitoring tool that visualizes the "tremors" of price action by measuring and analyzing the average volatility of the current trading range, working on any timeframe. This indicator is designed to help traders detect when the market is calm, when volatility is building, and when it enters a potentially unstable or explosive state by using a lookback period to determine the average volatility and highlights outliers.
🔍 What It Does
Calculates bar-level volatility as the percentage difference between the high and low of each candle.
Applies a user-selected moving average (SMA, EMA, or WMA) to smooth out short-term noise and highlight trends in volatility.
Compares current volatility to its long-term average over a configurable lookback period.
Dynamically colors each volatility bar based on how extreme it is relative to historical behavior:
🟢 Lime — Low volatility (subdued, ranging conditions)
🟡 Yellow — Moderate or building volatility
🟣 Fuchsia — Elevated or explosive volatility
⚙️ Customizable Settings
Low Volatility Limit and High Volatility Limit: Define the thresholds for color changes based on volatility's ratio to its average.
Volatility MA Length: Adjust the smoothing period for the volatility moving average.
Average Volatility Lookback: Set how many bars are used to calculate the long-term average.
MA Type: Choose between SMA, EMA, or WMA for smoothing.
Show Volatility MA Line?: Toggle the display of the smoothed volatility trendline.
Show Raw Volatility Bars?: Toggle the display of raw per-bar volatility with dynamic coloring.
🧠 Use Cases
Identify breakout conditions: When volatility spikes above average, it may signal the onset of a new trend or a news-driven breakout.
Avoid chop zones: Prolonged periods of low volatility often precede sharp moves — a classic “calm before the storm” setup.
Timing reversion trades: Detect overextended conditions when volatility is well above historical norms.
Adapt strategies by volatility regime: Use color feedback to adjust risk, position sizing, or strategy selection based on real-time conditions.
📌 Notes
Volatility is expressed as a percentage, making this indicator suitable for use across different timeframes and asset classes.
The tool is designed to be visually intuitive, so traders can quickly spot evolving volatility states without diving into raw numbers.
Z-Score Normalized VIX StrategyThis strategy leverages the concept of the Z-score applied to multiple VIX-based volatility indices, specifically designed to capture market reversals based on the normalization of volatility. The strategy takes advantage of VIX-related indicators to measure extreme levels of market fear or greed and adjusts its position accordingly.
1. Overview of the Z-Score Methodology
The Z-score is a statistical measure that describes the position of a value relative to the mean of a distribution in terms of standard deviations. In this strategy, the Z-score is calculated for various volatility indices to assess how far their values are from their historical averages, thus normalizing volatility levels. The Z-score is calculated as follows:
Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}
Where:
• X is the current value of the volatility index.
• \mu is the mean of the index over a specified period.
• \sigma is the standard deviation of the index over the same period.
This measure tells us how many standard deviations the current value of the index is away from its average, indicating whether the market is experiencing unusually high or low volatility (fear or calm).
2. VIX Indices Used in the Strategy
The strategy utilizes four commonly referenced volatility indices:
• VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): Measures the market’s expectations of 30-day volatility based on S&P 500 options.
• VIX3M (3-Month VIX): Reflects expectations of volatility over the next three months.
• VIX9D (9-Day VIX): Reflects shorter-term volatility expectations.
• VVIX (VIX of VIX): Measures the volatility of the VIX itself, indicating the level of uncertainty in the volatility index.
These indices provide a comprehensive view of the current volatility landscape across different time horizons.
3. Strategy Logic
The strategy follows a long entry condition and an exit condition based on the combined Z-score of the selected volatility indices:
• Long Entry Condition: The strategy enters a long position when the combined Z-score of the selected VIX indices falls below a user-defined threshold, indicating an abnormally low level of volatility (suggesting a potential market bottom and a bullish reversal). The threshold is set as a negative value (e.g., -1), where a more negative Z-score implies greater deviation below the mean.
• Exit Condition: The strategy exits the long position when the combined Z-score exceeds the threshold (i.e., when the market volatility increases above the threshold, indicating a shift in market sentiment and reduced likelihood of continued upward momentum).
4. User Inputs
• Z-Score Lookback Period: The user can adjust the lookback period for calculating the Z-score (e.g., 6 periods).
• Z-Score Threshold: A customizable threshold value to define when the market has reached an extreme volatility level, triggering entries and exits.
The strategy also allows users to select which VIX indices to use, with checkboxes to enable or disable each index in the calculation of the combined Z-score.
5. Trade Execution Parameters
• Initial Capital: The strategy assumes an initial capital of $20,000.
• Pyramiding: The strategy does not allow pyramiding (multiple positions in the same direction).
• Commission and Slippage: The commission is set at $0.05 per contract, and slippage is set at 1 tick.
6. Statistical Basis of the Z-Score Approach
The Z-score methodology is a standard technique in statistics and finance, commonly used in risk management and for identifying outliers or unusual events. According to Dumas, Fleming, and Whaley (1998), volatility indices like the VIX serve as a useful proxy for market sentiment, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. By calculating the Z-score, we normalize volatility and quantify the degree to which the current volatility deviates from historical norms, allowing for systematic entry and exit based on these deviations.
7. Implications of the Strategy
This strategy aims to exploit market conditions where volatility has deviated significantly from its historical mean. When the Z-score falls below the threshold, it suggests that the market has become excessively calm, potentially indicating an overreaction to past market events. Entering long positions under such conditions could capture market reversals as fear subsides and volatility normalizes. Conversely, when the Z-score rises above the threshold, it signals increased volatility, which could be indicative of a bearish shift in the market, prompting an exit from the position.
By applying this Z-score normalized approach, the strategy seeks to achieve more consistent entry and exit points by reducing reliance on subjective interpretation of market conditions.
8. Scientific Sources
• Dumas, B., Fleming, J., & Whaley, R. (1998). “Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests”. The Journal of Finance, 53(6), 2059-2106. This paper discusses the use of volatility indices and their empirical behavior, providing context for volatility-based strategies.
• Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities”. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637-654. The original Black-Scholes model, which forms the basis for many volatility-related strategies.
OG ATR RangeDescription:
The OG ATR Tool is a clean, visualized version of the Average True Range indicator for identifying volatility, stop-loss levels, and realistic price movement expectations.
How it works:
Calculates the average range (in points/pips) of recent candles.
Overlays ATR bands to help define breakout potential or squeeze zones.
Can be used to size trades or set dynamic stop-loss and target levels.
Best for:
Intraday traders who want to avoid unrealistic targets.
Volatility-based setups and breakout strategies.
Creating position sizing rules based on instrument volatility.
Pro Tip: Combine with your trend indicators to set sniper entries and exits that respect volatility.
trend_vol_stopThe description below is copied from the script's comments. Because TradingView does not allow me to edit this description, please refer to the script's comments section, as well as the release notes, for the most up-to-date information.
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Usage:
The inputs define the trend and the volatility stop.
Trend:
The trend is defined by a moving average crossover. When the short
(or fast) moving average is above the long (slow) moving average, the
trend is up. Otherwise, the trend is down. The inputs are:
long: the number of periods in the long/slow moving average.
short: the number of periods in the short/fast moving average.
The slow moving average is shown in various colors (see explanation
below. The fast moving average is a faint blue.
Volatility stop:
The volatility stop has two modes, percentage and rank. The percentage
stop is given in terms of annualized volatility. The rank stop is given
in terms of percentile.
stop_pct and stop_rank are initialized with "-1". You need to set one of
these to the values you want after adding the indicator to your chart.
This is the only setting that requires your input.
mode: choose "rank" for a rank stop, "percentage" for a percentage stop.
vol_window: the number of periods in the historical volatility
calculation. e.g. "30" means the volatility will be a weighted
average of the previous 30 periods. applies to both types of stop.
stop_pct: the volatility limit, annualized. for example, "50" means
that the trend will not be followed when historical volatility rises
above 50%.
stop_rank: the trend will not be followed when the volatility is in the
N-th percentile. for example, "75" means the trend will not be
followed when the current historical volatility is greater than 75%
of previous volatilities.
rank_window: the number of periods in the rank percentile calculation.
for example, if rank_window is "252" and "stop_rank" is "80", the
trend will not be followed when current historical volatility is
greater than 80% of the previous 252 historical volatilities.
Outputs:
The outputs include moving averages, to visually identify the trend,
a volatility table, and a performance table.
Moving averages:
The slow moving average is colored green in an uptrend, red in a
downtrend, and black when the volatility stop is in place.
Volatility table:
The volatility table gives the current historical volatility, annualized
and expressed as a whole number percentage. E.g. "65" means the
instrument's one standard deviation annual move is 65% of its price.
The current rank is expressed, also as a whole number percentage. E.g.
"15" means the current volatility is greater than 15% of previous
volatilities. For convenience, the volatilities corresponding to the
0, 25, 50, 75, and 100th percentiles are also shown.
Performance table:
The performance table shows the current strategy's performance versus
buy-and-hold. If the trend is up, the instrument's return for that
period is added to the strategy's return, because the strategy is long.
If the trend is down, the negative return is added, because the strategy
is short. If the volatility stop is in (the slow moving average is
black), that period's return is excluded from the strategy returns.
Every period's return is added to the buy-and-hold returns.
The table shows the average return, the standard deviation of returns,
and the sharpe ratio (average return / standard deviation of returns).
All figures are expressed as per-period, whole number percentages.
For exmaple, "0.1" in the mean column on a daily chart means a
0.1% daily return.
The number of periods (samples) for each strategy is also shown.
Range TableThe Range Table indicator calculates and displays the Daily Average True Range (ATR), the current day's True Range (TR), and two customizable ATR percentage values in a clean table format. It provides values in ticks, points, and USD, helping traders set stop-loss buffers based on market volatility.
**Features:**
- Displays the Daily ATR (14-period) and current day's True Range (TR) with its percentage of the Daily ATR.
- Includes two customizable ATR percentages (default: 75% and 10%, with the second disabled by default).
- Shows values in ticks, points, and USD based on the symbol's tick size and point value.
- Customizable table position, background color, text color, and font size.
- Toggle visibility for the table and percentage rows via input settings.
**How to Use:**
1. Add the indicator to your chart.
2. Adjust the table position, colors, and font size in the input settings.
3. Enable or disable the 75% and 10% ATR rows or customize their percentages.
4. Use the displayed values to set stop-loss or take-profit levels based on volatility.
**Ideal For:**
- Day traders and swing traders looking to set volatility-based stop-losses.
- Users analyzing tick, point, and USD-based risk metrics.
**Notes:**
- Ensure your chart is set to a timeframe that aligns with the daily ATR calculations.
- USD values are approximate if `syminfo.pointvalue` is unavailable.
Developed by FlyingSeaHorse.
Recency-Weighted Market Memory w/ Quantile-Based DriftRecency-Weighted Market Memory w/ Quantile-Based Drift
This indicator combines market memory, recency-weighted drift, quantile-based volatility analysis, momentum (RoC) filtering, and historical correlation checks to generate dynamic forecasts of possible future price levels. It calculates bullish and bearish forecast lines at each horizon, reflecting how the price might behave based on historical similarities.
Trading Concepts & Mathematical Foundations Explained
1) Market Memory
Concept:
Markets tend to repeat past behaviors under similar conditions. By identifying historical market states that closely match current conditions, we predict future price movements based on what happened historically.
Calculation Steps:
We select a historical lookback window (for example, 210 bars).
Each historical bar within this window is evaluated to see if its conditions match the current market. Conditions include:
Correlation between price change and bullish/bearish volume changes (over a user-defined correlation lookback period).
Momentum (Rate of Change, RoC) measured over a separate lookback period.
Only bars closely matching current conditions (within user-defined tolerance percentages) are included.
2) Recency-Weighted Drift
Concept:
Recent market movements often influence future direction. We assign more importance to recent bars to capture the current market bias effectively.
Calculation Steps:
Consider recent price changes between opens and closes for a user-defined drift lookback (for example, last 20 bars).
Give higher weight to recent bars (the most recent bar gets the highest weight, and weights decrease progressively for older bars).
Average these weighted changes separately for upward and downward movements, then combine these averages to calculate a final drift percentage relative to the current price.
3) Correlation Filtering
Concept:
Price changes often correlate strongly with bullish or bearish volume activity. By using historical correlation comparisons, we focus only on past market states with similar volume-price dynamics.
Calculation Steps:
Compute current correlations between price changes and bullish/bearish volume over the user-defined correlation lookback.
Evaluate each historical bar to see if its correlation closely matches the current correlation (within a user-specified percentage tolerance).
Only historical bars meeting this correlation criterion are selected.
4) Momentum (RoC) Filtering
Concept:
Two market periods may exhibit similar correlation structures but differ in how fast prices move (momentum). To ensure true similarity, momentum is checked as an additional filter.
Calculation Steps:
Compute the current Rate of Change (RoC) over the specified RoC lookback.
For each candidate historical bar, calculate its historical RoC.
Only include historical bars whose RoC closely matches the current RoC (within the RoC percentage tolerance).
5) Quantile-Based Volatility and Drift Amplification
Concept:
Quantiles (such as the 95th, 50th, and 5th percentiles) help gauge if current prices are near historical extremes or the median. Quantile bands measure volatility expansions and contractions.
Calculation Steps:
Calculate the 95%, 50%, and 5% quantiles of price over the quantile lookback period.
Add and subtract multiples of the standard deviation to these quantiles, creating upper and lower bands.
Measure the bands' widths relative to the current price as volatility indicators.
Determine the active quantile (95%, 50%, or 5%) based on proximity to the current price (within a percentage tolerance).
Compute the rate of change (RoC) of the active quantile to detect directional bias.
Combine volatility and quantile RoC into a scaling factor that amplifies or dampens expected price moves.
6) Expected Value (EV) Computation & Forecast Lines
Concept:
We forecast future prices based on how similarly-conditioned historical periods performed. We average historical moves to estimate the expected future price.
Calculation Steps:
For each forecast horizon (e.g., 1 to 27 bars ahead), collect all historical price moves that passed correlation and RoC filters.
Calculate average historical moves for bullish and bearish cases separately.
Adjust these averages by applying recency-weighted drift and quantile-based scaling.
Translate adjusted percentages into absolute future price forecasts.
Draw bullish and bearish forecast lines accordingly.
Indicator Inputs & Their Roles
Correlation Tolerance (%)
Adjusts how strictly the indicator matches historical correlation. Higher tolerance includes more matches, lower tolerance selects fewer but closer matches.
Price RoC Lookback and Price RoC Tolerance (%)
Controls how momentum (speed of price moves) is matched historically. Increasing tolerance broadens historical matches.
Drift Lookback (bars)
Determines the number of recent bars influencing current drift estimation.
Quantile Lookback Period and Std Dev Multipliers
Defines quantile calculation and the size of the volatility bands.
Quantile Contact Tolerance (%)
Sets how close the current price must be to a quantile for it to be considered "active."
Forecast Horizons
Specifies how many future bars to forecast.
Continuous Forecast Lines
Toggles between drawing continuous lines or separate horizontal segments for each forecast horizon.
Practical Trading Applications
Bullish & Bearish EV Lines
These forecast lines indicate expected price levels based on historical similarity. Green indicates positive expectations; red indicates negative.
Momentum vs. Mean Reversion
Wide quantile bands and high drift suggest momentum, while extremes may signal possible reversals.
Volatility Sensitivity
Forecasts adapt dynamically to market volatility. Broader bands increase forecasted price movements.
Filtering Non-Relevant Historical Data
By using both correlation and RoC filtering, irrelevant past periods are excluded, enhancing forecast reliability.
Multi-Timeframe Suitability
Adaptable parameters make this indicator suitable for different trading styles and timeframes.
Complementary Tool
This indicator provides probabilistic projections rather than direct buy or sell signals. Combine it with other trading signals and analyses for optimal results.
Important Considerations
While historically-informed forecasts are valuable, market behavior can evolve unpredictably. Always manage risks and use supplementary analysis.
Experiment extensively with input settings for your specific market and timeframe to optimize forecasting performance.
Summary
The Recency-Weighted Market Memory w/ Quantile-Based Drift indicator uniquely merges multiple sophisticated concepts, delivering dynamic, historically-informed price forecasts. By combining historical similarity, adaptive drift, momentum filtering, and quantile-driven volatility scaling, traders gain an insightful perspective on future price possibilities.
Feel free to experiment, explore, and enjoy this powerful addition to your trading toolkit!
G-VIDYA | QuantEdgeBIntroducing G-VIDYA by QuantEdgeB
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🔹 Overview
The G-VIDYA | QuantEdgeB is a dynamic trend-following indicator that enhances market trend detection using Gaussian smoothing and an adaptive Variable Index Dynamic Average (VIDYA). It is designed to reduce noise, improve responsiveness, and adapt to volatility, making it a powerful tool for traders looking to capture long-term trends efficiently.
By integrating ATR-based filtering, the indicator creates a dynamic support and resistance band around VIDYA, allowing for more accurate trend confirmations. Additionally, traders have the option to enable trade labels for clearer visual signals.
This indicator is well-suited for medium to long-term trend traders, combining mathematical precision with market adaptability for robust trading strategies.
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🚀 Key Features
1. Gaussian Smoothing → Reduces market noise and smoothens price action.
2. VIDYA Adaptive Calculation → Adjusts dynamically based on market volatility.
3. ATR-Based Filtering → Creates a volatility-driven range around VIDYA.
4. Dynamic Trend Confirmation → Identifies bullish and bearish momentum shifts.
5. Trade Labels (Optional) → Can display Long/Cash labels on chart for better clarity.
6. Customizable Color Modes → Offers multiple visual themes for personalized experience.
7. Automated Alerts → Sends buy/sell alerts for crossover trend changes.
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📊 How It Works
1. Gaussian Smoothing is applied to the closing price to remove noise and improve signal clarity.
2. VIDYA Calculation dynamically adjusts to price movements, making it more reactive during high-volatility periods and stable in low-volatility environments.
3. ATR-Based Filtering establishes a dynamic range (Upper & Lower ATR Bands) around VIDYA:
- If price breaks above the upper ATR band, it signals a potential long trend.
- If price breaks below the lower ATR band, it signals a potential short trend.
4. The indicator assigns color-coded candles based on trend direction:
- Bullish Trend → Blue/Green (Uptrend)
- Bearish Trend → Red/Maroon (Downtrend)
5. Labels & Alerts (Optional)
- Users can activate Long/Cash labels to mark buy/sell opportunities.
- Built-in alerts trigger automatic notifications when trend direction changes.
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🎨 Visual Representation
- VIDYA Line → A smooth, trend-following line that dynamically adjusts to market conditions.
- Upper & Lower ATR Bands → Establishes a volatility-based corridor around VIDYA.
- Bar Coloring → Candles change color according to the detected trend.
- Long/Short Labels (Optional) → Displays trade entry/exit signals (can be enabled/disabled).
- Alerts → Generates trade notifications based on trend reversals.
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⚙️ Default Settings
- Gaussian Smoothing
- Length: 4
- Sigma: 2.0
- VIDYA Settings
- VIDYA Length: 46
- Standard Deviation Length: 28
- ATR Settings
- ATR Length: 14
- ATR Multiplier: 1.3
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💡 Who Should Use It?
✅ Trend Traders → Those who rely on medium-to-long-term trends for trading decisions.
✅ Swing Traders → Ideal for traders who want to capture trend reversals and ride momentum.
✅ Quantitative Analysts → Provides statistically driven smoothing and adaptive trend detection.
✅ Risk-Averse Traders → ATR filtering helps manage market volatility effectively.
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Conclusion
The G-VIDYA | QuantEdgeB is an advanced trend-following indicator that combines Gaussian smoothing, adaptive VIDYA filtering, and ATR-based dynamic trend analysis to deliver robust and reliable trade signals.
✅ Key Takeaways
📌 Adaptive & Dynamic: Adjusts to market conditions, making it effective for trend-following strategies.
📌 Noise Reduction: Gaussian smoothing helps filter out short-term fluctuations, improving signal clarity.
📌 Volatility Awareness: ATR-based filtering ensures better handling of market swings and trend reversals.
By blending mathematical precision and quantitative market analysis, G-VIDYA | QuantEdgeB offers a powerful edge in trend trading strategies.
🔹 Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. No trading strategy can guarantee success in financial markets.
🔹 Strategic Advice: Always backtest, optimize, and align parameters with your trading objectives and risk tolerance before live trading.
Dynamic Ticks Oscillator Model (DTOM)The Dynamic Ticks Oscillator Model (DTOM) is a systematic trading approach grounded in momentum and volatility analysis, designed to exploit behavioral inefficiencies in the equity markets. It focuses on the NYSE Down Ticks, a metric reflecting the cumulative number of stocks trading at a lower price than their previous trade. As a proxy for market sentiment and selling pressure, this indicator is particularly useful in identifying shifts in investor behavior during periods of heightened uncertainty or volatility (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993).
Theoretical Basis
The DTOM builds on established principles of momentum and mean reversion in financial markets. Momentum strategies, which seek to capitalize on the persistence of price trends, have been shown to deliver significant returns in various asset classes (Carhart, 1997). However, these strategies are also susceptible to periods of drawdown due to sudden reversals. By incorporating volatility as a dynamic component, DTOM adapts to changing market conditions, addressing one of the primary challenges of traditional momentum models (Barroso & Santa-Clara, 2015).
Sentiment and Volatility as Core Drivers
The NYSE Down Ticks serve as a proxy for short-term negative sentiment. Sudden increases in Down Ticks often signal panic-driven selling, creating potential opportunities for mean reversion. Behavioral finance studies suggest that investor overreaction to negative news can lead to temporary mispricings, which systematic strategies can exploit (De Bondt & Thaler, 1985). By incorporating a rate-of-change (ROC) oscillator into the model, DTOM tracks the momentum of Down Ticks over a specified lookback period, identifying periods of extreme sentiment.
In addition, the strategy dynamically adjusts entry and exit thresholds based on recent volatility. Research indicates that incorporating volatility into momentum strategies can enhance risk-adjusted returns by improving adaptability to market conditions (Moskowitz, Ooi, & Pedersen, 2012). DTOM uses standard deviations of the ROC as a measure of volatility, allowing thresholds to contract during calm markets and expand during turbulent ones. This approach helps mitigate false signals and aligns with findings that volatility scaling can improve strategy robustness (Barroso & Santa-Clara, 2015).
Practical Implications
The DTOM framework is particularly well-suited for systematic traders seeking to exploit behavioral inefficiencies while maintaining adaptability to varying market environments. By leveraging sentiment metrics such as the NYSE Down Ticks and combining them with a volatility-adjusted momentum oscillator, the strategy addresses key limitations of traditional trend-following models, such as their lagging nature and susceptibility to reversals in volatile conditions.
References
• Barroso, P., & Santa-Clara, P. (2015). Momentum Has Its Moments. Journal of Financial Economics, 116(1), 111–120.
• Carhart, M. M. (1997). On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 57–82.
• De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793–805.
• Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91.
• Moskowitz, T. J., Ooi, Y. H., & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Time Series Momentum. Journal of Financial Economics, 104(2), 228–250.
Candle Spread
Candle Spread is an indicator that helps traders measure the range of price movement within each candle over a specified time period. It calculates the range of the candle between the High and Low (High - Low) and displays it in a separate window below the chart as columns.
Key Features:
Colored Bars: The bars are colored based on the candle's direction:
Bullish Candle: Bars are Green.
Bearish Candle: Bars are Red.
Moving Average: The indicator includes a 30-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which represents the overall average range of the candles.
Helps Identify Market Volatility: This indicator helps traders identify wide-range candles (signaling high volatility in the market), which could indicate a surge in momentum or potential trend reversals.
