Flawless Victory Strategy - 15min BTC Machine Learning StrategyHello everyone, I am a heavy Python programmer bringing machine learning to TradingView. This 15 minute Bitcoin Long strategy was created using a machine learning library and 1 year of historical data in Python. Every parameter is hyper optimized to bring you the most profitable buy and sell signals for Bitcoin on the 15min chart. The historical Bitcoin data was gathered from Binance API, in case you want to know the best exchange to use this long strategy. It is a simple Bollinger Band and RSI strategy with two versions included in the tradingview settings. The first version has a Sharpe Ratio of 7.5 which is amazing, and the second version includes the best stop loss and take profit positions with a Sharpe Ratio of 2.5 . Let me talk a little bit more about how the strategy works. The buy signal is triggered when close price is less than lower Bollinger Band at Std Dev 1, and the RSI is greater than a certain value. The sell signal is triggered when close price is greater than upper Bollinger Band at Std Dev 1, and the RSI is greater than a certain value. What makes this strategy interesting is the parameters the Machine Learning library found when backtesting for the best Sharpe Ratio. I left my computer on for about 28 hours to fully backtest 5000 EPOCHS and get the results. I was able to create a great strategy that might be one of TradingView's best strategies out on the website today. I will continue to apply machine learning to all my strategies from here on forward. Please Let me know if you have any questions or certain strategies you would like me to hyper optimize for you. I'm always willing to create profitable strategies!
P.S. You can always pyramid this strategy for more gains! I just don't add pyramiding when creating my strategies because I want to show you the true win/loss ratio based buying one time and one selling one time. I feel like when creating a strategy that includes pyramiding right off the bat falsifies the win rate. This is my way of being transparent with you all. Have fun trading!
Cerca negli script per "bitcoin"
CT Reverse Pi Cycle Bitcoin Top IndicatorIntroducing the Reverse BTC Pi Market Cycle Top indicator
Much respect to Philip Swift the original creator of this idea and big thanks to Tradingview author Ninorigo for sharing the script which this indicator is based on.
Philip Swift has noted that:
Using the x2 multiple of the 350 day moving average along with the 111 day moving average provides an interesting market cycle indicator.
Over the past three market cycles, when the 350DMA x2 crosses below the 111DMA, Bitcoin price peaks in its market cycle, this has been accurate to within three days of Bitcoin price topping out.
Here I have modified an existing script by Tradingview author @Ninorigo which shows the moving averages and gives signals upon crossover by adding the following features:
A function which shows the price at which the 350DMA will Cross Below the 111DMA.
(This is calculated from the prior bar closing data and does not repaint)
An “anticipated cross” function which may give a 1 bar advanced warning of a cross.
(this is calculated from current bar values and may change and repaint)
The crossover levels are shown in an info label to the right of the current price.
When there is a BTC Pi Market Cycle Top anticipated cross on the next bar there will be an orange background signal.
When there is an actual BTC Pi Market Cycle Top cross there will be a red background signal
When there is an anticipated cross back there will be a blue background signal
When there is an actual cross back there will be a green background signal
This indicator will show the appropriate moving averages and crossover information from the daily timeframe regardless of the timeframe you are using.
This should be helpful in more accurately identifying the price level where the Pi Market Cycle moving averages will cross denoting a possible market cycle top.
It is interesting to note:
350 / 111 = 3.153
Which is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number.
This is a script to give another view and metric on an interesting experimental idea. This is not financial advice.
GBTC premium as a percentage of the bitcoin pricePlots the GBTC premium as a percentage of the bitcoin price at the close. It also includes the annual management fee (2% at the moment). It accrues on a daily, weekly or monthly basis depending on the chart resolution. (intraday not supported) The amount of bitcoin per gbtc share and the annual fee may be changed by Grayscale in the future. Those values can be easily update in the script settings.
gold price levels denominated in usd/gramsPlots the gold price (USD) for the quantities (grams) identified as support or resistance in the indicator settings. Default values are:
75 gold grams
300 gold grams
500 gold grams
1000 gold grams
5000 gold grams
More context: The purchasing power of Bitcoin
[MACLEN] HODL ZONE RENKO
PLEASE READ!
Trade at your own risk. Please read about renko charts before using this indicator. This indicator is for educational purposes only.
This Indicator is only valid in renko charts with 1 second timeframe. For BTCUSDT . With the traditional method and the size box of 80.
With this indicator we can detect zones of buy and sell. Even that is not recommended to use leverage, I use it to find an entry and use only small leverages. It could be also used to accumulate and HODL bitcoin .
Please, comment anything.
POR FAVOR LEER!
Tradea bajo tu propio riesgo. Por favor lee sobre las graficas renko antes de usar este indicador. Este indicador es solamente con fines educativos.
Este indicador es válido solamente en graficas renko con un timeframe de 1 segundo. Para BTCUSDT . Con cajas del método tradicional de un tamaño de 80.
Con este indicador podemos detectar zonas de compra y venta. A pesar de que no es recomendable usar apalancamiento, yo lo uso para encontrar entradas y solo uso apalancamientos pequeños. También podría usarse para acumular y holdear bitcoin .
Por favor, escríbeme cualquier duda o comentario.
GBTC & BTCE Premium Indicator- This indicator illustrates the premium of GBTC and the European equivalent, BTCE. Relative to the spot price of Bitcoin
- It represents the premium investors are willing to pay to be able to gain exposure to Bitcoin . Whilst holding them in an investment vehicle such as a 401k or an ISA.
- The premiums can be plotted. GBTC vs BTCUSD and BTCE vs BTCEUR
OR
- The "real price" of BTCUSD , GBTC and BTCE (denominated in USD) can be plotted against each other
[SCL] Bitcoin Hashrate Dips (Miner Capitulation)Gives long-term buy signals for Bitcoin from dips and recoveries in the hashrate (the "miner capitulation" theory). It has an overlay and a standalone mode and is fully configurable. It uses Williams Lows and ATR instead of moving averages.
Features that might be interesting for Pinescripters:
+ Automatic (as far as is possible currently) adjustment of plots for overlay and standalone display modes.
+ A neat label function for debugging floats
+ Fully commented
+ The debug that I used to overcome problems in developing it is left in
+ Ideas for how to deal with a wildly oscillating and exponentially increasing data source
You need to run this indicator on the Bitcoin daily chart for it to make any sense. The best is a BTC/USD chart with a long history, such as BNC:BLX.
Pi-cycle top for Bitcoin bull-runUsage
Whenever the Pi-Cycle top conditions are met, the red circle appears at the bottom of the chart. Theoretically, this marks the top of the bull-run in Bitcoin within 3 days.
Credit and overview
Indicator Overview
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days.
It uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average, the 350DMA x 2.
Note: The multiple is of the price values of the 350DMA not the number of days.
For the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA x 2 we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking.
It is also interesting to note that 350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, it is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number.
It once again demonstrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action over long time frames. Though in this instance it does so with a high degree of accuracy over the past 7 years.
How It Can Be Used
Pi Cycle Top is useful to indicate when the market is very overheated. So overheated that the shorter term moving average, which is the 111 day moving average, has reached a x2 multiple of the 350 day moving average. Historically it has proved advantageous to sell Bitcoin at this time in Bitcoin’s price cycles.
Created By Philip Swift
BTC and ETH Long strategy - version 1I will start with a small introduction about myself. I'm now trading cryto currencies manually for almost 2 years. I decided to start after watching a documentary on the TV showing people who made big money during the Bitcoin pump which happened at the end of 2017.
The next day, I asked myself "Why should I not give it a try and learn how to trade".
This was in February 2018 and the price of Bitcoin was around 11500USD.
I didn't know how to trade. In fact, I didn't know the trading industry at all.
So, my first step into trading was to open an account with a broken. Then I directly bought 200$ worst of BTC . At that time, I saw the graph and thought "This can only go back in the upward direction!" :)
I didn't know anything about Stop loss, Take profit and Risk management.
Today, almost 2 years after, I think that I know how to trade and can also confirm that I still hold this bag of 200$ of bitcoin from 2018 :)
I did spend the 2 last years to learn technical analysis , risk management and leverage trading.
Today (14/05/2020), I know what I'm doing and I'm happy to see that the 2 last years have been positive in terms of gains. Of course, I did not make crazy money with my saving but at least I made more than if I would have kept it in my bank account.
Even if I like trading, I have a full time job which requires my full energy and lots of focus, so, the biggest problem I had is that I didn't have enough time to look at the charts.
Also, I realized that sometimes, neither technical analysis , nor fundamentals worked with crypto currency (at least for short time trading). So, as I have a developer background I decided to try to have a look at algo trading.
The goal for me was neither to make complex algos nor to beat the market but just to automate my trading with simple bot catching the big waves.
I then started to take a look at TV pine script and played with it.
I did my first LONG script in February 2020 to Long the BTC Market. It has some limitations but works well enough for me for the time being. Even if the real trades will bring me half of what the back testing shows, this will still be a lot more than what I was used to win during the last 2 years with my manual trading.
So, here we are! Below you will find some details about my first LONG script. I'm happy to share it with you.
Feel free to play with it, give your comments and bring improvements to it.
But please note that it only works fine with the candle size and crypto pair that I have mentioned below. If you use other settings this algo might loose money!
- Crypto pairs : XBTUSD and ETHXBT
- Candle size: 2 Hours
- Indicator used: Volatility , MACD (12, 26, 7), SMA (100), SMA (200), EMA (20)
- Default StopLoss: -1.5%
- Entry in position if: Volatility < 2%
AND MACD moving up
AND AME (20) moving up
AND SMA (100) moving up
AND SMA (200) moving up
AND EMA (20) > SAM (100)
AND SMA (100) > SMA (200)
- Exit the postion if: Stoploss is reached
OR EMA (20) crossUnder SMA (100)
Here is a summary of the results for this script:
XBTUSD : 01/01/2019 --> 14/05/2020 = +107%
ETHXBT : 01/01/2019 --> 14/05/2020 = +39%
ETHUSD : 01/01/2019 --> 14/05/2020 = +112%
It is far away from being perfect. There are still plenty of things which can be done to improve it but I just wanted to share it :) .
Enjoy playing with it....
Hash Ribbons Backtest - Bitcoin Beats YT
Hello Hello Hello and welcome back to Bitcoin Beats!
This is a script written by capriole_charles
Go check out the original!
I have added leverage and stoploss % but also made it a strategy so we can look back at past trades to see patterns and profit.
Personally I feel this is not enough data to trade off as BTC is such a young asset. However I have seen other models similar to this for other assets that hold strong.
Trade safe!
Good bye from bitcoin beats!
Not Meant For The 1H! My Bad! higher timeframes are better!
The "Spring" is the confirmed Miner capitulation period:
The 1st "gray" circle is the start of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses UNDER 2 month Hash Rate)
Last "green" circle is the end of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses OVER 2 month Hash Rate)
The "greener" the spring gets (up until blue) represents Hash Rate recovery (it is increasing)
The "blue" circle is the first instance of positive momentum following recovery of Hash Rate (1m HR > 2m HR). This is historically a rewarding place to buy with limited downside.
VIX MonitorSimple VIX Monitor to track spikes.
Spikes in VIX are often followed by big moves up in stocks.
Useful when paired with "Correlation & Beta" Indicator.
For Bitcoin Traders: when Bitcoin is highly correlated to Stocks (such as now) it could be a good opportunity for a short-term long trade.
2-Year MA MultiplierIndicator built by lookintobitcoin specifically for identifying ideal Bitcoin buy and sell regions.
lookintobitcoin describes this indicator as:
"The 2-Year MA Multiplier is intended to be used as a long term investment tool.
It highlights periods where buying or selling Bitcoin during those times would have produced outsized returns.
To do this, it uses a moving average (MA) line, the 2yr MA, and also a multiplication of that moving average line, 2yr MA x5.
Note: the x5 multiplication is of the price values of the 2yr moving average, not of its time period.
Buying Bitcoin when price drops below the 2yr MA (green line) has historically generated outsized returns. Selling Bitcoin when price goes above the 2yr MA x 5 (red line) has been historically effective for taking profit."
BEST Mayer MultipleHello traders
I'm not a HODLer by any means. I know when to sell (or I think I know....) when an asset starts going against me too much.
Even if it's a "long-term" investment.
My mentor used to telling me this: "If a short-term trade becomes a long-term investment, then you're in for a hell of a ride".
I have no clue if Bitcoin/BTC will go back up or not - I don't even care because I'm an intraday trader.
What if BTC was actually a way to accumulate more fiat? Satoshi fooled us
I coded this Mayer Multiple according to the specifications below. By the way, I'm a big fan of Willy Woo. I've been monitoring all his work since I learned about crypto (10 minutes ago.... it's a joke come on)
charts.woobull.com
Scaling
To respect the Mayer's multiple model, I recommend to select the Logarithmic scaling as shown below
imgur.com
What Mayer's model says
Using the reference below, the model says we're in the oversold zone. But, we can be in that zone for months/years...
When a model says an asset could bounce in a 1000-7000 USD range... well... I don't know how I would be able to perform optimally with that insight. This is very subjective and not a recommendation.
Mayer's Multiple model reference
All the BEST
Dave
Blockchain Artificial Neural NetworksI found a very high correlation in a research-based Artificial Neural Networks.(ANN)
Trained only on daily bars with blockchain data and Bitcoin closing price.
NOTE: It does not repaint strictly during the weekly time frame. (TF = 1W)
Use only for Bitcoin .
Blockchain data can be repainted in the daily time zone according to the description time.
Alarms are available.
And you can also paint bar colors from the menu by region.
After making reminders, let's share the details of this interesting research:
INPUTS :
1. Average Block Size
2. Api Blockchain Size
3. Miners Revenue
4. Hash Rate
5. Bitcoin Cost Per Transaction
6. Bitcoin USD Exchange Trade Volume
7. Bitcoin Total Number of Transactions
OUTPUTS :
1. One day next price close (Historical)
TRAINING DETAILS :
Learning cycles: 1096436
AutoSave cycles: 100
Grid :
Input columns: 7
Output columns: 1
Excluded columns: 0
Training example rows: 446
Validating example rows: 0
Querying example rows: 0
Excluded example rows: 0
Duplicated example rows: 0
Network :
Input nodes connected: 7
Hidden layer 1 nodes: 5
Hidden layer 2 nodes: 0
Hidden layer 3 nodes: 0
Output nodes: 1
Controls :
Learning rate: 0.1000
Momentum: 0.8000
Target error: 0.0100
Training error: 0.010571
The average training error is really low, almost worth the target.
Without using technical analysis data, we established Artificial Neural Networks with blockchain data.
Interesting!
Yope BTC PL channelThis is a new version of the old "Yope BTC tops channel", but modified to reflect a power-law curve fitted, similar to the model proposed by Harold Christopher Burger in his medium article "Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth".
My original tops channel fitting is still there for comparison. In fact, it looks like the old tops channel was a bit too pessimistic.
Note that these channels are still pure naive curve-fitting, and do not represent an underlying model that explains it, like is the case for PlanB's "Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity" which uses Stock-to-Flow.
The motivation for this exercise is to observe how long this empirical extrapolation is valid. Will the price of bitcoin stay in either of both channels?
Note on usage: This script _only_ works with the BLX "BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin" in the 1D, 3D and 1W time-frames!
It may be necessary to zoom in and out a few times to overcome drawing glitches caused by the extreme time-shifting of plots in order to draw the extrapolated part.
NVT Dynamic Colored with Signals [aamonkey]NVT Dynamic
This is the dynamic version of my " Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions " indicator.
The dynamic NVT indicator is based on the Network Value to Transactions.
Definition:
NVT = Network Value / Daily Transaction Volume
Advantages:
Because BTC is a very young asset, it can be a good idea to have relatively high and low NVT values that change over time.
Signals:
When the NVT turns green = buy opportunity
NVT turns red = sell opportunity
REAL STRATEGY : Dow_Factor_MFI/RSI_DVOG_StrategyI'm actually one of those who think it's more important to extract clues from indicators than strategy, but I wanted to test the data about the probability and dow factor I've shared for a long time.
Usually, Bitcoin is used as an eye stain for strategy success, since the graph has increased significantly from the beginning.
To prevent this, I used a commission and in the last lines of document I shared Bitmex's Bitcoin and Ethereum 1W test results.
I don't think there's a factor to repaint. ( Warn me if u see or observe )
I considered Bitcoin because I found working with liquid parities much more realistic.
Ethereum and Bitmex have been featured as a spot and may soon find a place at the CME , so I've evaluated the Ethereum .
But since the Ethereum Bitmex was also spot new, I deleted results that were less than 10 closed trades.
Since the Dow Theory also looks at the harmony in the indices, just try it in the Cryptocurrency market.
Use as indicator in other markets. Support with channels, trend lines with big periods and other supportive indicators.
And my personal suggestion : Use this script and indicator TF : 4H and above.
Specifications :
Commission. ( % 0.125 )
Switchable Methods ( Relative Strength Index / Money Flow Index )
Alarms. (Buy / Sell )
Position closure when horizontal market rates weighs.
Progressive gradual buy/sell alarms.
Clean code layout that will not cause repaint. (Caution : source = close )
Switchable barcolor option (I / 0 )
*****Test results :*****
drive.google.com
Summary:
It was a realistic test.
It has achieved great success in some markets, but as I mentioned earlier, use it only to gain insight into the price movements of cryptos.
Use as indicator in other markets.
This code is open source under the MIT license. If you have any improvements or corrections to suggest, please send me a pull request via the github repository : github.com
Stay tuned ! Noldo.
Noro's Bitcoin market capitalizationValue calculation method:
Capitalization of all crypto - capitalization of altcoins = bitcoin market capitalization
or
TOTAL - TOTAL2 = bitcoin market capitalization
The Golden Ratio MultiplierBy Philip Swift
As Bitcoin continues to progress on its adoption journey, we learn more about its growth trajectory.
Rather than Bitcoin price action behaving like a traditional stock market share price, we see it act more like a technology being adopted at an exponential rate.
This is because Bitcoin is a network being adopted by society, and because it is decentralised money with limited supply, its price is a direct representation of that adoption process.
There are a number of regression analysis tools and stock to flow ratio studies that are helping us to understand the direction of Bitcoin’s adoption curve.
The new tool outlined in this paper brings an alternative degree of precision to understanding Bitcoin’s price action over time. It will demonstrate that Bitcoin’s adoption is not only following a broad growth curve but appears to be following established mathematical structures.
In doing so, it also:
Accurately and consistently highlights intracycle highs and lows for Bitcoin’s price.
Picks out every market cycle top in Bitcoin’s history.
Forecasts when Bitcoin will top out in the coming market cycle.
To begin, we will use the 350 day moving average of Bitcoin’s price. It has historically been an important moving average because once price moves above it, a new bull run begins.
more ...
medium.com
All rights reserved to Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto)
Strategy for The Bitcoin Buy/Sell IndicatorThis is the strategy for
Starting with a capital of $3,000 XBT , one might have $15,975 dollar worth of XBT plus whatever the bitcoin has appreciated over the years.
The Sharpe Ratio: 0.586, Net Profit is 532%, 57 closed trades from 2017 till today, Profit factor of 3.745 (aka for every dollar loss, there is 3.745 dollar profit) with 14% drawdown .
Let that sink in.
NVT Signal with RMA and thresholds [alertable]NVT Signal, or NVTS, is an indicator that compares the market cap of Bitcoin to the aggregate USD value of daily transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain. It is a value indicator that shows a multiple of Bitcoin price against the actual usage of its blockchain. When the NVTS is low, it suggests Bitcoin price is low relative to the amount of utility the network provides, and vice versa.
For more information on NVTS, visit medium.com
This indicator aims to provide the following:
1. An open-source implementation of NVTS on Tradingview, as the most popular one currently is closed-source.
2. To provide two simple ways to define and visualize "overbought" or "oversold" conditions using the NVTS. Here, we have absolute value of NVTS & deviation from a long-term moving average.
3. Crude integration into Tradingview's alert system.
What this indicator CANNOT do:
1. Timeframes below 1d.
2. Signals based on statistical analyses, such as seen in Bollinger Bands et al. (However, with the appropriate type of account, you can add BBands on top of this indicator.)
I would like to express my gratitude to Willy Woo, Chris Burniske and Dimitry Kalichkin for their work on NVT Ratio and NVT Signal, without which my indicator would not have been created.
Feel free to fork & improve, or experiment with settings. I hope this indicator will be useful to someone.
Alpha-Sutte ModelThe Alpha-Sutte model is an ongoing project run by Ansari Saleh Ahmar, a lecturer and researcher at Universitas Negeri Makassar in Indonesia, that attempts to make forecasts for time series like how Arima and Holt-Winters models do. Currently Ahmar and his team have conducted research and published papers comparing the efficacy of the Alpha-Sutte and other models, such as Arima and Holt-Winters, on topics ranging from forecasting Turkey's CPI data, Bitcoin prices, Apple's stock prices, primary energy supply of Indonesia, to infant mortality rates in China.
The Alpha-Sutte model in comparison to the other two models listed above shows promise in providing a more accurate forecast, and the project has been able to receive some of its funding from organizations such as the US Agency for International Development, which is a part of the US Federal Government, so maybe the project has some actual merit.
How it works:
In this model there are four values presented at the top of the window.
1) The first value in blue is the value of the Alpha-Sutte model whose purpose is to forecast the price of the current bar.
2) The second value in yellow is an adaptive version of the Alpha-Sutte model that I made. The purpose of the adaptive Alpha-Sutte model is to expand upon the Alpha-Sutte by allowing new information to be introduced, causing the value to change during the current period, hence the adaptiveness of it.
3) The third value in aqua is the moving average of the low% Sutte line which is a predictive line that is based off of the close and low of the current and previous periods.
4) The fourth value in red is the moving average of the high% Sutte line which is a predictive line that is based off of the close and high of the current and previous periods.
Trend signals:
If low% Sutte (aqua value/line) is greater than high% Sutte (red value/line) then this is a buy signal.
If high% Sutte (red value/line) is greater than low% Sutte (aqua value/line) then this is a sell signal.
Caveat:
Even though this model's purpose is to forecast the future, will it be able to predict periods of large movements? No, of course not, but it will adjust quickly to try to make more accurate forecasts for the next period. This was also a reason why I made an adaptive version of this model to try to reduce some of the discrepancies between the Alpha Sutte and price when there is a large unexpected move.
*WARNING before using this I would highly recommend that you look up "Sutte Indicator" online and read some of the papers about this model before you use this , even though this model has shown merit when compared to Arima and Holt-Winter models this is still an ongoing project.*
Hopefully this project will actually come to something in the near future as the calculation for this time series predictive model is much easier to calculate and program in pine editor than something like an Arima model.
*Also, if you know how to use R language there is a package for the "Alpha-Sutte model".*
Moving Average 300 by WM - Bitcoin reversal key ?Bonjour à tous, c'est un grand plaisir que nous ajoutons le MA 300 à votre boîte à outils ce qui à mon avis pourrait constituer un support essentiel pour la tendance BTC dans un proche avenir. Nous pensons qu'il serait possible que le Bitcoin puisse mettre un terme à la tendance baissière en l'effleurant :-) Historiquement le Bitcoin n'a jamais descendu sous la barre du MA 200. Je vous souhaite de connaître beaucoup de succès lors de vos prochaines transactions et n'oubliez pas la tendance est votre amis!! Crypto Mercy xx
WM
We are movement
