Average Trading Volume ValueCalculates Average Trading Volume and uses mark price to convert it between base/quote currencies
Cerca negli script per "liquidity"
RSI with Self-Adjusting Linear Regression Bands (Expo)RSI with Self-Adjusting Linear Regression Bands (Expo) makes use of RSI and Linear Regression to create an RSI that follows the current trend. The indicator has an upper and lower self-adjusting Linear Regression Band that act as RSI boundaries.
HOW TO USE
The indicator can be used in multiple ways, for instance, to find overbought and oversold areas. Or to identify trends as well as pullbacks in trends.
INDICATOR IN ACTION
This indicator is a modification of RafaelZioni's work "Linear Regression Trend bands"
Credit to: RafaelZioni
I hope you find this indicator useful , and please comment or contact me if you like the script or have any questions/suggestions for future improvements. Thanks!
I will continually work on this indicator, so please share your experience and feedback as it will enable me to make even better improvements. Thanks to everyone that has already contacted me regarding my scripts. Your feedback is valuable for future developments!
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Disclaimer
Copyright by Zeiierman.
The information contained in my scripts/indicators/ideas does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My scripts/indicators/ideas are only for educational purposes!
[WJ] - Corrected Seconds Volume** ONLY WORKS FOR SECONDS CHARTS **
After staring at a chart and scratching my head, I realized that the volumes were being incorrectly reported for lower time frames.
A chart that has no updated tick for 5 minutes will report the volume that occurred in the WHOLE 5 minutes - in one tick.
For a 5 second chart like above, we have now a chart that at first appearance is giving us numbers to believe that there is MUCH more liquidity than is real.
This can really confuse us, and other scripts that rely on volume information.
This script simply takes into consideration the time delay before the next tick. If it took 5 minutes to update a tick, the volume should be divided into whatever seconds we are currently using. I also changed the coloring code - if there is no length to the candle it will look at the candle before it to determine if it is a positive or negative movement.
It does make technical sense to have the volume that occurred over 5 minutes in one tick as it is the true volume. However, this script should not be viewed as the absolute value, but a consistent, usable number that will be more accurate with tools.
To give a quick example on why this is important:
In a 10 second chart, we are given an updated tick every minute. In 2 minutes we have 2 ticks that have 1K volume each.
Alternatively, we have a 10 second chart, and we are given an updated tick every 10 seconds. In 2 minutes we have 12 ticks that have 100 volume each.
With quick mental math we can determine that the second scenario is actually (albeit slightly) more busy. However, a script would not do that extra layer of math and would assume that the first scenario is bouncing off the walls with activity and the second is a graveyard.
It's exactly for this example that I have created this script, and I hope it helps someone else out.
Earthquake Effect by DGTInstitutional investors have a profound impact on financial instruments prices because of the large volume, and their trading activities can greatly impact the price of financial instruments. They sometimes may split trades over time in order to not make a material impact and of course not to decrease liquidity to the point where there may be no one to take the other side of the trade.
Institutional investors (Smart Money) may create an Elephant Effect on the prices of financial instruments, and this study aims to display by emphasizing high volume changes
In the memory of the North Anatolian Earthquake that struck on August 17, 1999, that we remember with pain today, and similarities of plotting outcomes to seismograph plotting I preferred to name this study as Earthquake Effect (SEISMOGRAPH)
Disclaimer:
Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitute professional and/or financial advice. You alone have the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
Percent Calculator OverlayFirst and foremost: I'm inspired to publish my scripts by the other member's who publish quality, detailed scripts -a token of my appreciation and support, Thank You.
The percent calculator overlay is an extension of my Percent Calculator indicator that allows one to visualize the percent metrics they're interested in trading: it''s function is to simply output the target price from either the close or ones trade-entry based on a desired percent return on investment (R.O.I.) then plots it on top of the chart as an area plot and notes anytime in the past the desired conditions were met with a {flag "Success"}.
Say you want to profit 15% from your entry: open the settings and plug in your entry value and the number 15 into the appropriate settings and the indicator displays what the target price should be (rounded to two decimal places) right on the chart with the area as well as the horizontal line which is enabled by the "track price" setting.
The percent calculator overlay also goes one step further by finding the average percent return on investment over a desired interval of time (the default is 20 candles) as well as allows one to adjust the size of the price move the average percent return on investment is being calculated for which is displayed on the chart as circles and also displays a horizontal line for the most current value with the enabled "track price" setting.
NOTE: unlike the Percent Calculator the Percent Calculator Overlay creates a visual record of the number of success' the programmed parameters have achieved (based on the closing prices) which self adjusts when the "size of the move" is changed.
Say you want to find the average percent return on investment for a 3 candle swing over a 200 candle interval of time: open the settings and plug the number 200 into the interval setting and the number 3 into the price-move setting and the indicator displays what the average 3 candle swing returns on investment and plots what the target price would be to achieve the average return given the current close (or entry price) with the gray circles and the horizontal line enabled with the "track price" setting.
Practical Application: comparing ones desired return on investment to the average return on investment can help determine how realistic ones goals are... it's unlikely to achieve 100% return on investment if the average is only around 10% (given the parameters one is working within) but on the other hand achieving 5% return on investment is highly likely. By visualizing roughly how often the given parameters have achieved success on the chart one can become a lot more comfortable, confident, and accurate with their goals.
Forward Looking Statement: I believe in the not too distant future plug and play automated trading systems will be made available to the general public. Over the past 4 years we have seen brokers offer free charting software, commission free trading, and now fractional shares; I don't think it will be much longer before we can simply click a few buttons and tell the computer to enter when the stochastic is overbought/sold and exit with a predefined percent gain (and to repeat that process indefinitely). -Imagine the data moving 2-3-4 times a second, the liquidity flowing like Niagara falls, and 95% of the working population not only starting to invest but gains the extra cash flow they desperately need.
Beta testing: please comment or send me a message if you happen to stumble over any bugs or have any suggestions for improvement.
S&P Merval Index Volume Indicator (Shares, ARS, U$S CCL GGAL)S&P Merval Index Volume Indicator (Shares, ARS, U$S CCL GGAL)
◾ This indicator reflects a close estimate of the traded volume in the S&P Merval Index BCBA:IMV for nominal shares, traded money in ARS & USD using a financial FX rate.
◾ The constituents of the index "must meet minimum size and liquidity requirements" as it is been declared by S&P Dow Jones Indexes. On this version of the indicator were reflected the current set of stocks for the Index as of Monday, July 27, 2020 for actual and historical sessions.
◾ Eventually, there could be changes in consitutents as per the S&P Dow Jones Indexes classification and re-balance that will be reflected on this script or a new one.
◾ Aggregated volume of nominal shares for each of the stocks constitutents is multiplied by their closing prices to estimates the effective volume in ARS & adjusted by the FX rate with "Contado con Liquidación" FX rate closing session price.
◾ It serves as a dynamical volume indicator available for standard and customized timeframes. Provides an assertive look over trading activity which allows the analyst to measure effectively either resistance or support zones in Bull / Flat or Bear markets.
◾ Output of 10 trading days of effective volume was cross-checked with "IAMC Informe diario" www.iamc.com.ar the official daily report by the exchange ByMA (Bolsas y Mercados de Argentina).
1) Trading Sessions Dates
7/27/20; 7/23/20; 7/22/20; 7/21/20; 7/20/20; 7/16/20; 7/15/20; 7/14/20; 7/13/20
2) IAMC Informe Diario S&P Merval Index Effective volume (ARS) for each of 1)
$1309.4M; $1999.3M; $1691.1M; $1585.6M; $949.7M; $818.6M; $1010.4M; $962.3M; $1515.7M
3) Pine indicator S&P Merval Index Effective volume (ARS) for each 1)
$1294.6M; $1911.7M; $1691.3M; $1526.6M; $901.4M; $796.7M; $961.9M; $939.7M; $1404.7 M
4) Variance 3) | 2)
-1%; -4%; 0%; -4%; -5%; -3%; -5%; -2%; -7%
Average Deviation: -4%
Standard Deviation: 2%
* This quick analysis depicts that effective volume displayed may (or not) have a non significance variance over the real data reported by the National Exchange due to the script calculation.
* Thanks to Alan who helped me a lot with the code!
High & Low Of Custom Session - OpeningRange Breakout (Expo)High & Low Of Custom Session - OpeningRange Breakout (Expo) prints the high and the low of a custom session.
I use the indicator to trade the re-test of opening range (high/low) as well as breakouts from the opening range. The same logic can be applied to the session you have chosen.
HOW TO USE
1. Use the indicator to trade the re-tests of the session range.
2. Use the indicator to trade breakouts of session range.
INDICATOR IN ACTION
1-min chart
I hope you find this indicator useful , and please comment or contact me if you like the script or have any questions/suggestions for future improvements. Thanks!
I will continually work on this indicator, so please share your experience and feedback as it will enable me to make even better improvements. Thanks to everyone that has already contacted me regarding my scripts. Your feedback is valuable for future developments!
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Disclaimer
Copyright by Zeiierman.
The information contained in my scripts/indicators/ideas does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My scripts/indicators/ideas are only for educational purposes!
Adaptive Trend Lines (Expo)Adaptive Trend Lines (Expo) identifies the current trend direction within the selected lookback period. The idea behind the indicator is that the trend lines should self adjust to the constantly changing market. The indicator adjusts itself to the market by using tr (true range) and stdev (standard deviation) as dynamic variables.
The indicator displays positive- and negative trend channels.
HOW TO USE
1. Use the indicator to identify the trend direction.
I hope you find this indicator useful , and please comment or contact me if you like the script or have any questions/suggestions for future improvements. Thanks!
I will continually work on this indicator , so please share your experience and feedback as it will enable me to make even better improvements. Thanks to everyone that has already contacted me regarding my scripts. Your feedback is valuable for future developments!
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Disclaimer
Copyright by Zeiierman.
The information contained in my scripts/indicators/ideas does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My scripts/indicators/ideas are only for educational purposes!
GreedZone indicator - Contrarian Indicator"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett. Greedzone is a contrarian indicator that gives us an indication when greed begins to take over in the market. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility and good trading opportunities.
The Greedzone is visualized with green candlesticks above the price.
HOW TO USE
1. Use the indicator to identify when investors are greedy.
2. Use the indicator to identify potential reversal points.
INDICATOR IN ACTION
1 hour chart
5 min chart
I hope you find this indicator useful , and please comment or contact me if you like the script or have any questions/suggestions for future improvements. Thanks!
I will continually work on this indicator, so please share your experience and feedback as it will enable me to make even better improvements. Thanks to everyone that has already contacted me regarding my scripts. Your feedback is valuable for future developments!
-----------------
Disclaimer
Copyright by Zeiierman.
The information contained in my scripts/indicators/ideas does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My scripts/indicators/ideas are only for educational purposes!
Fearzone (Expo) - Contrarian Indicator"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett. Fearzone is a contrarian indicator that gives us an indication when fear begins to take over in the market. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility and good trading opportunities.
The Fearzone is visualized with red candlesticks below the price.
This version of the FearZone indicator is slightly different from the one ©kruskakli has published.
HOW TO USE
1. Use the indicator to identify when investors are fearful.
2. Use the indicator to identify potential reversal points.
INDICATOR IN ACTION
1 hour chart
5 min chart
I hope you find this indicator useful , and please comment or contact me if you like the script or have any questions/suggestions for future improvements. Thanks!
I will continually work on this indicator, so please share your experience and feedback as it will enable me to make even better improvements. Thanks to everyone that has already contacted me regarding my scripts. Your feedback is valuable for future developments!
-----------------
Disclaimer
Copyright by Zeiierman.
The information contained in my scripts/indicators/ideas does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My scripts/indicators/ideas are only for educational purposes!
(JS) Multi-Time Frame Pivot Point Detector 2.0So here's an updated version of my automatic Pivot Point detector.
If you don't like having a bunch of Pivots on your chart at once, or having to cycle through various resolutions to see different ones, this is for you!
What does this indicator do? It automatically detects the nearest daily, weekly, and monthly pivot points both above and below the current price and automatically plots them for you. It's really just as simple as that.
You select how far back you want it to plot with the "Pivot Point Look Back Period" option.
I also have transparency options for each type of pivot so its easy to find the opacity you prefer and save it as a default setting.
With "Turn Off Each Pivot Point On All Time Frames" turned on, as an example, if you were to uncheck "S1/R1" then it turns S1/R1 plots off across all 3 pivot resolutions. By default however, I have it set where you can pick and choose each one individually.
I also added the default "VWAP Periodic" script from TradingView in there with it (not in prior version). This works identical to the built in indicator (because it is identical).
Trading algorithms like to target pivot points and liquidity, so I figured they would pair together nicely for active trading.
Bitcoin Margin Call Envelopes [saraphig & alexgrover]Bitcoin is the most well known digital currency, and allow two parties to make a transaction without the need of a central entity, this is why cryptocurrencies are said to be decentralized, there is no central unit in the transaction network, this can be achieved thanks to cryptography. Bitcoin is also the most traded cryptocurrency and has the largest market capitalization, this make it one of the most liquid cryptocurrency.
There has been tons of academic research studying the profitability of Bitcoin as well as its role as a safe heaven asset, with all giving mixed conclusions, some says that Bitcoin is to risky to be considered as an hedging instrument while others highlight similarities between Bitcoin and gold thus showing evidence on the usefulness of Bitcoin acting as an hedging instrument. Yet Bitcoin seems to attract more short term speculative investors rather than other ones that would use Bitcoin as an hedging instrument.
Once introduced, cryptocurrencies where of course heavily analyzed by technical analyst, and technical indicators where used by retail as well as institutional investors in order to forecast the future trends of bitcoin. I never really liked the idea of designing indicators that specifically worked for only one type of market and ever less on only one symbol. Yet the user @saraphig posted in Feb 20 an indicator called " Margin Call MovingAverage " who calculate liquidation price by using a volume weighted moving average. It took my attention and we decided to work together on a relatively more complete version that would include resistances levels.
I believe the proposed indicator might result useful to some users, the code also show a way to restrict the use of an indicator to only one symbol (line 9 to 16).
The Indicator
The indicator only work on BTCUSD, if you use another symbol you should see the following message:
The indicator plot 6 extremities, with 3 upper (resistance) extremities and 3 lower (support) extremities, each one based on the isolated margin mode liquidation price formula:
UPlp = MA/Leverage × (Leverage+1-(Leverage*0.005))
for upper extremities and:
DNlp = MA × Leverage/(Leverage+1-(Leverage*0.005))
for lower extremities.
Length control the period of the moving averages, with higher values of length increasing the probability of the price crossing an extremity. The Leverage's settings control how far away their associated extremities are from the price, with lower values of Leverage making the extremity farther away from the price, Leverage 3 control Up3 and Dn3, Leverage 2 control Up2 and Dn2, Leverage 1 control Up1 and Dn1, @saraphig recommend values for Leverage of either : 25, 20, 15, 10 ,5.
You can select 3 different types of moving average, the default moving average is the volume weighted moving average (VWMA), you can also choose a simple moving average (SMA) and the Kaufman adaptive moving average (KAMA).
Based on my understanding (which could be wrong) the original indicator aim to highlight points where margin calls might have occurred, hence the name of the indicator.
If you want a more "DSP" like description then i would say that each extremity represent a low-pass filter with a passband greater than 1 for upper extremities and lower than 1 for lower extremities, unlike bands indicators made by adding/subtracting a volatility indicator from another moving average this allow to conserve the original shape of the moving average, the downside of it being the inability to show properly on different scales.
here length = 200, on a 1h tf, each extremities are able to detect short-terms tops and bottoms. The extremity become wider when using lower time-frames.
You would then need to increase the Leverages settings, i recommend a time frame of 1h.
Conclusion
I'am not comfortable enough to make a conclusion, as i don't know the indicator that well, however i liked the original indicator posted by @saraphig and was curious about the idea behind it, studying the effect of margin calls on market liquidity as well as making indicators based on it might result a source of inspiration for other traders.
A big thanks to @saraphig who shared a lot of information about the original indicator and allowed me to post this one. I don't exclude working with him/her in the future, i invite you to follow him/her:
www.tradingview.com
Thx for reading and have a nice weekend! :3
Bull Bear BarsHighlights when the movement of a candle is supported by a major increase in volume. Thus one could reasonably assume that a follow thru is likely to occur.
Blue= bullish
Yellow = bearish
I personally use this as an entry system. I enter only if the blue high or yellow low is surpassed by the very next candle , if not, then i do not enter. Thus trading with momentum and greatly avoiding choppy market conditions.
***Example*** In the chart above, during $XBT’s month long November 2019 Downtrend.. I am showing my bull long entries (without showing the obvious winning bear entries!) and found that only once did the price fail to advance less than 1% before any significant drawdown occurs (As shown on the chart by thumbs up & thumbs down symbols.)
***When using this indicator it is important to keep in mind that Blue bullish bars can and will appear at the top of upswings likewise, yellow bearish bars can and will appear at the bottom of downswings.. which could potentially signify trend reversals.
This knowledge can also can be used to ones advantage (” buy when everyone is selling, sell when everyone is buying.”)
This is a common occurrence because retail traders are often late to the party before they catch on to a trend resulting in buying heavily at the top and selling heavily at the bottom providing liquidity to earlier entrants to exit and as per usual the price then reverses on the mass of late bloomers.***
This indicator can be used in many different ways so goodluck in finding the method that best suits your style and be careful out there. Cheers
BONUS: Also has the ability to set alerts!
MAC-Z & MACD Leader signal [ChuckBanger]This is a combination of my MACD Leader script and MAC-Z with option to add Laguerre filter. The advantage of the MAC-Z over MACD is that it is a more accurate and “assumption-free” indicator that can more accurately describe how a market actually perform. But you can use this as a regular MACD indicator.
Crossovers signals
The MAC-Z line and signal line can be utilized in the same way as a stochastic oscillator, with the crossover between the two lines providing buy and sell signals. As with most crossover strategies, a buy signal comes when the shorter-term, more reactive line – in this case the MAC-Z line (blue line) crosses above the slower signal line (orange line). For example, when the MAC-Z line crosses below the signal line it provides a bearish sell signal.
Zero line crossing
The zero cross strategy is based on either of the lines crossing the zero line. If the MAC-Z crosses the zero line from below, it is a signal for a possible new uptrend, while the MAC-Z crossing from above is a signal that a new downtrend may be starting. This is special powerful if the lines has a fast up or down movement but the price action doesn't reflect that movement.
Divergences
Bearish and bullish divergences is my favorite signals. When price action and oscillators follow the same path it is called Convergences, when they don’t, it’s called a Divergence. Don't confuse the two because they have not the same meaning. But be aware that for example during consolidation or low liquidity, some small divergences between price and indicators might form, but that doesn't mean we should consider them as real divergences.
There is many different types of divergences. It is easier to show a picture then explaining it so I recommend you to check out the link below. Especially the top image. It sums this up very well
medium.com
MACD Leader
The MACD leader is only showing the crossing of MACD as a vertical line
Green vertical line = MACD Leader Bullish Cross
Red vertical line = MACD Leader Bearish Cross
MACD Leader:
MAC-Z:
More Information
cssanalytics.wordpress.com
en.wikipedia.org
drive.google.com
Weiss Wave Open Interest BarsFirstly :
LazyBear ' s "Weiss Wave " codes are used for open interests.
Original Weiss Wave Volume :
Let's start :
Open Interest vs. Volume: An Overview
Volume and open interest are two key measurements that describe the liquidity and activity of contracts In the options and futures markets. However, their meanings and applications are different. Volume refers to the number of contracts traded in a given period, while open interest denotes the number of active contracts.
Volume
Trading volume measures the number of options or futures contracts being exchanged between buyers and sellers, identifying the level of activity for that particular contract. For every buyer, there is a seller, and the transaction itself counts toward the daily volume.
Open Interest
Open interest indicates the number of options or futures contracts that are held by traders and investors in active positions. These positions have not been closed out, expired, or exercised. Open interest decreases when holders and writers of options (or buyers and sellers of futures) close out their positions. To close out positions, they must take offsetting positions or exercise their options. Open interest increases once again when investors and traders open new long positions or writers/sellers take on new short positions. Open interest also increases when new options or futures contracts are created.
Options or futures contract trading volume can only increase while open interest can either increase or decrease. While trading volume indicates the number of contracts that have been bought or sold, open interest identifies the number of contracts that are currently held.
Reference : www.investopedia.com
*** Worked to define all futures . You can look them in codes (between line : 13 to line 94 )
** CAUTION 1 : Since each instrument in the list has its own unique contract data, you must first enter its name to display it. I recommend you to select OANDA from the markets. Finally, when the COT reports are issued, it may repaints. However, this repaint is usually close to closing or after close .(When COT reports are so sharp ) So use this script only 1W ( 1 week ) or 1 M ( 1 month ) timeframe.
** CAUTION 2 : This data is taken to Tradingview with the help of Quandl. This is a tremendous possibility, but the system will not work if there is a malfunction.
Best regards.
Great Expectations [LucF]Great Expectations helps traders answer the question: What is possible? It is a powerful question, yet exploration of the unknown always entails risk. A more complete set of questions better suited to traders could be:
What opportunity exists from any given point on a chart?
What portion of this opportunity can be realistically captured?
What risk will be incurred in trying to do so, and how long will it take?
Great Expectations is the result of an exploration of these questions. It is a trade simulator that generates visual and quantitative information to help strategy modelers visually identify and analyse areas of optimal expectation on charts, whether they are designing automated or discretionary strategies.
WARNING: Great Expectations is NOT an indicator that helps determine the current state of a market. It works by looking at points in the past from which the future is already known. It uses one definition of repainting extensively (i.e. it goes back in the past to print information that could not have been know at the time). Repainting understood that way is in fact almost all the indicator does! —albeit for what I hope is a noble cause. The indicator is of no use whatsoever in analyzing markets in real-time. If you do not understand what it does, please stay away!
This is an indicator—not a strategy that uses TradingView’s backtesting engine. It works by simulating trades, not unlike a backtest, but with the crucial difference that it assumes a trade (either long or short) is entered on all bars in the historic sample. It walks forward from each bar and determines possible outcomes, gathering individual trade statistics that in turn generate precious global statistics from all outcomes tested on the chart.
Great Expectations provides numbers summarizing trade results on all simulations run from the chart. Those numbers cannot be compared to backtest-produced numbers since all non-filtered bars are examined, even if an entry was taken on the bar immediately preceding the current one, which never happens in a backtest. This peculiarity does NOT invalidate Great Expectations calculations; it just entails that results be considered under a different light. Provided they are evaluated within the indicator’s context, they can be useful—sometimes even more than backtesting results, e.g. in evaluating the impact of parameter-fitting or variations in entry, exit or filtering strats.
Traders and strategy modelers are creatures of hope often suffering from blurred vision; my hope is that Great Expectations will help them appraise the validity of their setup and strat intuitions in a realistic fashion, preventing confirmation bias from obstructing perspective—and great expectations from turning into financial great deceptions.
USE CASES
You’ve identified what looks like a promising setup on other indicators. You load Great Expectations on the chart and evaluate if its high-expectation areas match locations where your setup’s conditions occur. Unless today is your lucky day, chances are the indicator will help you realize your setup is not as promising as you had hoped.
You want to get a rough estimate of the optimal trade duration for a chart and you don’t mind using the entry and exit strategies provided with the indicator. You use the trade length readouts of the indicator.
You’re experimenting with a new stop strategy and want to know how long it will keep you in trades, on average. You integrate your stop strategy in the indicator’s code and look at the average trade length it produces and the TST ratio to evaluate its performance.
You have put together your own entry and exit criteria and are looking for a filter that will help you improve backtesting results. You visually ascertain the suitability of your filter by looking at its results on the charts with great Expectations, to see if your filter is choosing its areas correctly.
You have a strategy that shows backtested trades on your chart. Great Expectations can help you evaluate how well your strategy is benefitting from high-opportunity areas while avoiding poor expectation spots.
You want more complete statistics on your set of strategies than what backtesting will provide. You use Great Expectations, knowing that it tests all bars in the sample that correspond to your criteria, as opposed to backtesting results which are limited to a subset of all possible entries.
You want to fool your friends into thinking you’ve designed the holy grail of indicators, something that identifies optimal opportunities on any chart; you show them the P&L cloud.
FEATURES
For one trade
At any given point on the chart, assuming a trade is entered there, Great Expectations shows you information specific to that trade simulation both on the chart and in the Data Window.
The chart can display:
the P & L Cloud which shows whether the trade ended profitably or not, and by how much,
the Opportunity & Risk Cloud which the maximum opportunity and risk the simulation encountered. When superimposed over the P & L cloud, you will see what I call the managed opportunity and risk, i.e the portion of maximum opportunity that was captured and the portion of the maximum risk that was incurred,
the target and if it was reached,
a background that uses a gradient to show different levels of trade length, P&L or how frequently the target was reached during simulation.
The Data Window displays more than 40 values on individual trades and global results. For any given trade you will know:
Entry/Exit levels, including slippage impact,
It’s outcome and duration,
P/L achieved,
The fraction of the maximum opportunity/risk managed by the trade.
For all trades
After going through all the possible trades on the chart, the indicator will provide you with a rare view of all outcomes expressed with the P&L cloud, which allows us to instantly see the most/least profitable areas of a chart using trade data as support, while also showing its relationship with the opportunity/risk encountered during the simulation. The difference between the two clouds is the managed opportunity and risk.
The Data Window will present you with numbers which we will go through later. Some of them are: average stop size, P/L, win rate, % opportunity managed, trade lengths for different types of trade outcomes and the TST (Target:Stop Travel) ratio.
Let’s see Great Expectations in action… and remember to open your Data Window!
INPUTS
Trade direction : You must first choose if you wish to look at long or short trades. Because of the way the indicator works and the amount of visual information on the chart, it is only practical to look at one type of trades at a time. The default is Longs.
Maximum trade Length (MaxL) : This is the maximum walk forward distance the simulator will go in analyzing outcomes from any given point in the past. It also determines the size of the dead zone among the chart’s last bars. A red background line identifies the beginning of the dead zone for which not enough bars have elapsed to analyze outcomes for the maximum trade length defined. If an ATR-based entry stop is used, that length is added to the wait time before beginning simulations, so that the first entry starts with a clean ATR value. On a sample of around 16000 bars, my tests show that the indicator runs into server errors at lengths of around 290, i.e. having completed ~4,6M simulation loop iterations. That is way too high a length anyways; 100 will usually be amply enough to ring out all the possibilities out of a simulation, and on shorter time frames, 30 can be enough. While making it unduly small will prevent simulations of expressing the market’s potential, the less you use, the faster the indicator will run. The default is 40.
Unrealized P&L base at End of Trade (EOT) : When a simulation ends and the trade is still open, we calculate unrealized P&L from an exit order executed from either the last in-trade stop on the previous bar, or the close of the last bar. You can readily see the impact of this selection on the chart, with the P&L cloud. The default is on the close.
Display : The check box besides the title does nothing.
Show target : Shows a green line displaying the trade’s target expressed as a multiple of X, i.e. the amplitude of the entry stop. I call this value “X” and use it as a unit to express profit and loss on a trade (some call it “R”). The line is highlighted for trades where the close reached the target during the trade, whether the trade ended in profit or loss. This is also where you specify the multiple of X you wish to use in calculating targets. The multiple is used even if targets are not displayed.
Show P&L Cloud : The cloud allows traders to see right away the profitable areas of the chart. The only line printed with the cloud is the “end of trade line” (EOT). The EOT line is the only way one can see the level where a trade ended on the chart (in the Data Window you can see it as the “Exit Fill” value). The EOT level for the trade determines if the trade ended in a profit or a loss. Its value represents one of the following:
- fill from order executed at close of bar where stop is breached during trade (which produces “Realized P/L”),
- simulation of a fill pseudo-fill at the user-defined EOT level (last close or stop level) if the trade runs its course through MaxL bars without getting stopped (producing Unrealized P/L).
The EOT line and the cloud fill print in green when the trade’s outcome is profitable and in red when it is not. If the trade was closed after breaching the stop, the line appears brighter.
Show Opportunity&Risk Cloud : Displays the maximum opportunity/risk that was present during the trade, i.e. the maximum and minimum prices reached.
Background Color Scheme : Allows you to choose between 3 different color schemes for the background gradients, to accommodate different types of chart background/candles. Select “None” if you don’t want a background.
Background source : Determines what value will be used to generate the different intensities of the gradient. You can choose trade length (brighter is shorter), Trade P&L (brighter is higher) or the number of times the target was reached during simulation (brighter is higher). The default is Trade Length.
Entry strat : The check box besides the title does nothing. The default strat is All bars, meaning a trade will be simulated from all bars not excluded by the filters where a MaxL bars future exists. For fun, I’ve included a pseudo-random entry strat (an indirect way of changing the seed is to vary the starting date of the simulation).
Show Filter State : Displays areas where the combination of filters you have selected are allowing entries. Filtering occurs as per your selection(s), whether the state is displayed or not. The effect of multiple selections is additive. The filters are:
1. Bar direction: Longs will only be entered if close>open and vice versa.
2. Rising Volume: Applies to both long and shorts.
3. Rising/falling MA of the length you choose over the number of bars you choose.
4. Custom indicator: You can feed your own filtering signal through this from another indicator. It must produce a signal of 1 to allow long entries and 0 to allow shorts.
Show Entry Stops :
1. Multiple of user-defined length ATR.
2. Fixed percentage.
3. Fixed value.
All entry stops are calculated using the entry fill price as a reference. The fill price is calculated from the current bar’s open, to which slippage is added if configured. This simulates the case where the strategy issued the entry signal on the previous bar for it to be executed at the next bar’s open.
The entry stop remains active until the in-trade stop becomes the more aggressive of the two stops. From then on, the entry stop will be ignored, unless a bar close breaches the in-trade stop, in which case the stop will be reset with a new entry stop and the process repeats.
Show In-trade stops : Displays in bright red the selected in-trade stop (be sure to read the note in this section about them).
1. ATR multiple: added/subtracted from the average of the two previous bars minimum/maximum of open/close.
2. A trailing stop with a deviation expressed as a multiple of entry stop (X).
3. A fixed percentage trailing stop.
Trailing stops deviations are measured from the highest/lowest high/low reached during the trade.
Note: There is a twist with the in-trade stops. It’s that for any given bar, its in-trade stop can hold multiple values, as each successive pass of the advancing simulation loops goes over it from a different entry points. What is printed is the stop from the loop that ended on that bar, which may have nothing to do with other instances of the trade’s in-trade stop for the same bar when visited from other starting points in previous simulations. There is just no practical way to print all stop values that were used for any given bar. While the printed entry stops are the actual ones used on each bar, the in-trade stops shown are merely the last instance used among many.
Include Slippage : if checked, slippage will be added/subtracted from order price to yield the fill price. Slippage is in percentage. If you choose to include slippage in the simulations, remember to adjust it by considering the liquidity of the markets and the time frame you’ll be analyzing.
Include Fees : if checked, fees will be subtracted/added to both realized an unrealized trade profits/losses. Fees are in percentage. The default fees work well for crypto markets but will need adjusting for others—especially in Forex. Remember to modify them accordingly as they can have a major impact on results. Both fees and slippage are included to remind us of their importance, even if the global numbers produced by the indicator are not representative of a real trading scenario composed of sequential trades.
Date Range filtering : the usual. Just note that the checkbox has to be selected for date filtering to activate.
DATA WINDOW
Most of the information produced by this indicator is made available in the Data Window, which you bring up by using the icon below the Watchlist and Alerts buttons at the right of the TV UI. Here’s what’s there.
Some of the information presented in the Data Window is standard trade data; other values are not so standard; e. g. the notions of managed opportunity and risk and Target:Stop Travel ratio. The interplay between all the values provided by Great Expectations is inherently complex, even for a static set of entry/filter/exit strats. During the constant updating which the habitual process of progressive refinement in building strategies that is the lot of strategy modelers entails, another level of complexity is no doubt added to the analysis of this indicator’s values. While I don’t want to sound like Wolfram presenting A New Kind of Science , I do believe that if you are a serious strategy modeler and spend the time required to get used to using all the information this indicator makes available, you may find it useful.
Trade Information
Entry Order : This is the open of the bar where simulation starts. We suppose that an entry signal was generated at the previous bar.
Entry Fill (including slip.) : The actual entry price, including slippage. This is the base price from which other values will be calculated.
Exit Order : When a stop is breached, an exit order is executed from the close of the bar that breached the stop. While there is no “In-trade stop” value included in the Data Window (other than the End of trade Stop previously discussed), this “Exit Order” value is how we can know the level where the trade was stopped during the simulation. The “Trade Length” value will then show the bar where the stop was breached.
Exit Fill (including slip.) : When the exit order is simulated, slippage is added to the order level to create the fill.
Chart: Target : This is the target calculated at the beginning of the simulation. This value also appear on the chart in teal. It is controlled by the multiple of X defined under the “Show Target” checkbox in the Inputs.
Chart: Entry Stop : This value also appears on the chart (the red dots under points where a trade was simulated). Its value is controlled by the Entry Strat chosen in the Inputs.
X (% Fill, including Fees) and X (currency) : This is the stop’s amplitude (Entry Fill – Entry Stop) + Fees. It represents the risk incurred upon entry and will be used to express P&L. We will show R expressed in both a percentage of the Entry Fill level (this value), and currency (the next value). This value represents the risk in the risk:reward ratio and is considered to be a unit of 1 so that RR can be expressed as a single value (i.e. “2” actually meaning “1:2”).
Trade Length : If trade was stopped, it’s the number of bars elapsed until then. The trade is then considered “Closed”. If the trade ends without being stopped (there is no profit-taking strat implemented, so the stop is the only exit strat), then the trade is “Open”, the length is MaxL and it will show in orange. Otherwise the value will print in green/red to reflect if the trade is winning/losing.
P&L (X) : The P&L of the trade, expressed as a multiple of X, which takes into account fees paid at entry and exit. Given our default target setting at 2 units of “X”, a trade that closes at its target will have produced a P&L of +2.0, i.e. twice the value of X (not counting fees paid at exit ). A trade that gets stopped late 50% further that the entry stop’s level will produce a P&L of -1.5X.
P&L (currency, including Fees) : same value as above, but expressed in currency.
Target first reached at bar : If price closed above the target during the trade (even if it occurs after the trade was stopped), this will show when. This value will be used in calculating our TST ratio.
Times Stop/Target reached in sim. : Includes all occurrences during the complete simulation loop.
Opportunity (X) : The highest/lowest price reached during a simulation, i.e. the maximum opportunity encountered, whether the trade was previously stopped or not, expressed as a multiple of X.
Risk (X) : The lowest/highest price reached during a simulation, i.e. the maximum risk encountered, whether the trade was previously stopped or not, expressed as a multiple of X.
Risk:Opportunity : The greater this ratio, the greater Opportunity is, compared to Risk.
Managed Opportunity (%) : The portion of Opportunity that was captured by the highest/low stop position, even if it occurred after a previous stop closed the trade.
Managed Risk (%) : The portion of risk that was protected by the lowest/highest stop position, even if it occurred after a previous stop closed the trade. When this value is greater than 100%, it means the trade’s stop is protecting more than the maximum risk, which is frequent. You will, however, never see close to those values for the Managed Opportunity value, since the stop would have to be higher than the Maximum opportunity. It is much easier to alleviate the risk than it is to lock in profits.
Managed Risk:Opportunity : The ratio of the two preceding values.
Managed Opp. vs. Risk : The Managed Opportunity minus the Managed Risk. When it is negative, which is most often is, it means your strat is protecting a greater portion of the risk than it captures opportunity.
Global Numbers
Win Rate(%) : Percentage of winning trades over all entries. Open trades are considered winning if their last stop/close (as per user selection) locks in profits.
Avg X%, Avg X (currency) : Averages of previously described values:.
Avg Profitability/Trade (APPT) : This measures expectation using: Average Profitability Per Trade = (Probability of Win × Average Win) − (Probability of Loss × Average Loss) . It quantifies the average expectation/trade, which RR alone can’t do, as the probabilities of each outcome (win/lose) must also be used to calculate expectancy. The APPT combine the RR with the win rate to yield the true expectancy of a strategy. In my usual way of expressing risk with X, APPT is the equivalent of the average P&L per trade expressed in X. An APPT of -1.5 means that we lose on average 1.5X/trade.
Equity (X), Equity (currency) : The cumulative result of all trade outcomes, expressed as a multiple of X. Multiplied by the Average X in currency, this yields the Equity in currency.
Risk:Opportunity, Managed Risk:Opportunity, Managed Opp. vs. Risk : The global values of the ones previously described.
Avg Trade Length (TL) : One of the most important values derived by going through all the simulations. Again, it is composed of either the length of stopped trades, or MaxL when the trade isn’t stopped (open). This value can help systems modelers shape the characteristics of the components they use to build their strategies.
Avg Closed Win TL and Avg Closed Lose TL : The average lengths of winning/losing trades that were stopped.
Target reached? Avg bars to Stop and Target reached? Avg bars to Target : For the trades where the target was reached at some point in the simulation, the number of bars to the first point where the stop was breached and where the target was reached, respectively. These two values are used to calculate the next value.
TST (Target:Stop Travel Ratio) : This tracks the ratio between the two preceding values (Bars to first stop/Bars to first target), but only for trades where the target was reached somewhere in the loop. A ratio of 2 means targets are reached twice as fast as stops.
The next values of this section are counts or percentages and are self-explanatory.
Chart Plots
Contains chart plots of values already describes.
NOTES
Optimization/Overfitting: There is a fine line between optimizing and overfitting. Tools like this indicator can lead unsuspecting modelers down a path of overfitting that often turns strategies into over-specialized beasts that do not perform elegantly when confronted to the real-world. Proven testing strategies like walk forward analysis will go a long way in helping modelers alleviate this risk.
Input tuning: Because the results generated by the indicator will vary with the parameters used in the active entry, filtering and exit strats, it’s important to realize that although it may be fun at first, just slapping the default settings on a chart and time frame will not yield optimal nor reliable results. While using ATR as often as possible (as I do in this indicator) is a good way to make strat parametrization adaptable, it is not a foolproof solution.
There is no data for the last MaxL bars of the chart, since not enough trade future has elapsed to run a simulation from MaxL bars back.
Modifying the code: I have tried to structure the code modularly, even if that entails a larger code base, so that you can adapt it to your needs. I’ve included a few token components in each of the placeholders designed for entry strategies, filters, entry stops and in-trade stops. This will hopefully make it easier to add your own. In the same spirit, I have also commented liberally.
You will find in the code many instances of standard trade management tasks that can be lifted to code TV strategies where, as I do in mine, you manage everything yourself and don’t rely on built-in Pine strategy functions to act on your trades.
Enjoy!
THANKS
To @scarf who showed me how plotchar() could be used to plot values without ruining scale.
To @glaz for the suggestion to include a Chandelier stop strat; I will.
To @simpelyfe for the idea of using an indicator input for the filters (if some day TV lets us use more than one, it will be useful in other modules of the indicator).
To @RicardoSantos for the random generator used in the random entry strat.
To all scripters publishing open source on TradingView; their code is the best way to learn.
To my trading buddies Irving and Bruno; who showed me way back how pro traders get it done.
