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Forecasting - Drift MethodIntroduction Nothing fancy in terms of code, take this post as an educational post where i provide information rather than an useful tool. Time-Series Forecasting And The Drift Method In time-series analysis one can use many many forecasting methods, some share similarities but they can all by classified in groups and sub-groups, the drift method is a forecasting method that unlike averages/naive methods does not have a constant (flat) forecast, instead the drift method can increase or decrease over time, this is why its a great method when it comes to forecasting linear trends. Basically a drift forecast is like a linear extrapolation, first you take the first and last point of your data and draw a line between those points, extend this line into the future and you have a forecast, thats pretty much it. One of the advantage of this method is first its simplicity, everyone could do it by hand without any mathematical calculations, then its ability to be non-conservative, conservative methods involve methods that fit the data very well such as linear/non-linear regression that best fit a curve to the data using the method of least-squares, those methods take into consideration all the data points, however the drift method only care about the first and last point. Understanding Bias And Variance In order to follow with the ability of methods to be non-conservative i want to introduce the concept of bias and variance, which are essentials in time-series analysis and machine learning. First lets talk about training a model, when forecasting a time-series we can divide our data set in two, the first part being the training set and the second one the testing set. In the training set we fit a model to the training data, for example : We use 200 data points, we split this set in two sets, the first one is for training which is in blue, and the other one for testing which is in green. Basically the Bias is related to how well a forecasting model fit the training set, while the variance is related to how well the model fit the testing set. In our case we can see that the drift line does not fit the training set very well, it is then said to have high bias. If we check the testing set : We can see that it does not fit the testing set very well, so the model is said to have high variance. It can be better to talk of bias and variance when using regression, but i think you get it. This is an important concept in machine learning, you'll often see the term "overfitting" which relate to a model fitting the training set really well, those models have a low to no bias, however when it comes to testing they don't fit well at all, they have high variance. Conclusion On The Drift Method The drift method is good at forecasting linear trends, and thats all...you see, when forecasting financial data you need models that are able to capture the complexity of the price structure as well as being robust to noise and outliers, the drift method isn't able to capture such complexity, its not a super smart method, same goes for linear regression. This is why more peoples are switching to more advanced models such a neural networks that can sometimes capture such complexity and return decent results. So this method might not be the best but if you like lines then here you go.
Indicatore Pine Script®
di alexgrover
18
Simple LinesIntroduction Making lines is great in technical analysis since it can highlights principal movements and make the analysis of the price easier when using certain methodologies (Elliott Waves, patterns). However most of the indicators making lines (Zig-Zag, simple linear regression) are non causal (repaint), this is the challenge i tried to overcome, making an indicator capable of making lines in a smart way (able to follow price without loosing a linear approach) and with the least lag possible, i inspired myself from the behaviour of the renko when using a small brick size. This indicator does not repaint . The code is short and i hope, understandable for all of you, making lines is not a difficult task and its important to know that when a problem appear complex it does not mean that the code used to solve this problem must be complex. Lets see the indicator in details. The indicator The indicator have 4 parameters, the length parameter who control the length of lines, the emphasis parameter who control the stability and also the ability to make lines closer to the price (thus minimizing the sum of squares) , the mult parameter which is similar to emphasis and a point option that we will discuss later. When emphasis and mult are both equal to 1 the indicator will sometimes draw a perfect line, however this line will try to follow the price and thus can create a noisy result. This is where emphasis and mult will correct this behaviour. The emphasis parameter give a more periodic look as well as some control to the lines but can also destroy them. This should not happen with mult , this parameter also give more predictability to the lines. Overall it correct the drawbacks of the parameters combinations mentioned earlier. Its also possible to mix both the emphasis and mult parameter, but take into account that when both are equals the result consist of less reactive lengthy lines with low accuracy. Its better to only use one of them and let the other stay to 1. Point Option The indicator can sometimes have a weird look, appearing almost flat or just dont appearing at all. When such thing happen use the point option. XPDUSD without point option. with point option : Time Frame Problem and Its Fix When using higher time-frames the result of the indicator can appear different, in general the higher the time frame the lengthier are the lines. In order to fix this you can use decimals in the length parameter length and mult both equal to 5.5, emphasis cant use decimals. Conclusion I have highlighted a simple way to make use of the small renko box size method in order to return reactive lines without making the indicator repaint. However Its ability to be close to the price as well as being always super reactive is not a guarantee. For any suggestion/help feel free to pm me, i would be happy to help you :)
Indicatore Pine Script®
di alexgrover
19
PivotBoss TriggersI have collected the four PivotBoss indicators into one big indicator. Eventually I will delete the individual ones, since you can just turn off the ones you don't need in the style controller. Cheers. Wick Reversal When the market has been trending lower then suddenly forms a reversal wick candlestick , the likelihood of a reversal increases since buyers have finally begun to overwhelm the sellers. Selling pressure rules the decline, but responsive buyers entered the market due to perceived undervaluation. For the reversal wick to open near the high of the candle, sell off sharply intra-bar, and then rally back toward the open of the candle is bullish , as it signifies that the bears no longer have control since they were not able to extend the decline of the candle, or the trend. Instead, the bulls were able to rally price from the lows of the candle and close the bar near the top of its range, which is bullish - at least for one bar, which hadn't been the case during the bearish trend. Essentially, when a reversal wick forms at the extreme of a trend, the market is telling you that the trend either has stalled or is on the verge of a reversal. Remember, the market auctions higher in search of sellers, and lower in search of buyers. When the market over-extends itself in search of market participants, it will find itself out of value, which means responsive market participants will look to enter the market to push price back toward an area of perceived value. This will help price find a value area for two-sided trade to take place. When the market finds itself too far out of value, responsive market participants will sometimes enter the market with force, which aggressively pushes price in the opposite direction, essentially forming reversal wick candlesticks . This pattern is perhaps the most telling and common reversal setup, but requires steadfast confirmation in order to capitalize on its power. Understanding the psychology behind these formations and learning to identify them quickly will allow you to enter positions well ahead of the crowd, especially if you've spotted these patterns at potentially overvalued or undervalued areas. Fade (Extreme) Reversal The extreme reversal setup is a clever pattern that capitalizes on the ongoing psychological patterns of investors, traders, and institutions. Basically, the setup looks for an extreme pattern of selling pressure and then looks to fade this behavior to capture a bullish move higher (reverse for shorts). In essence, this setup is visually pointing out oversold and overbought scenarios that forces responsive buyers and sellers to come out of the dark and put their money to work-price has been over-extended and must be pushed back toward a fair area of value so two-sided trade can take place. This setup works because many normal investors, or casual traders, head for the exits once their trade begins to move sharply against them. When this happens, price becomes extremely overbought or oversold, creating value for responsive buyers and sellers. Therefore, savvy professionals will see that price is above or below value and will seize the opportunity. When the scared money is selling, the smart money begins to buy, and Vice versa. Look at it this way, when the market sells off sharply in one giant candlestick , traders that were short during the drop begin to cover their profitable positions by buying. Likewise, the traders that were on the sidelines during the sell-off now see value in lower prices and begin to buy, thus doubling up on the buying pressure. This helps to spark a sharp v-bottom reversal that pushes price in the opposite direction back toward fair value. Engulfing (Outside) Reversal The power behind this pattern lies in the psychology behind the traders involved in this setup. If you have ever participated in a breakout at support or resistance only to have the market reverse sharply against you, then you are familiar with the market dynamics of this setup. What exactly is going on at these levels? To understand this concept is to understand the outside reversal pattern. Basically, market participants are testing the waters above resistance or below support to make sure there is no new business to be done at these levels. When no initiative buyers or sellers participate in range extension, responsive participants have all the information they need to reverse price back toward a new area of perceived value. As you look at a bullish outside reversal pattern, you will notice that the current bar's low is lower than the prior bar's low. Essentially, the market is testing the waters below recently established lows to see if a downside follow-through will occur. When no additional selling pressure enters the market, the result is a flood of buying pressure that causes a springboard effect, thereby shooting price above the prior bar's highs and creating the beginning of a bullish advance. If you recall the child on the trampoline for a moment, you'll realize that the child had to force the bounce mat down before he could spring into the air. Also, remember Jennifer the cake baker? She initially pushed price to $20 per cake, which sent a flood of orders into her shop. The flood of buying pressure eventually sent the price of her cakes to $35 apiece. Basically, price had to test the $20 level before it could rise to $35. Let's analyze the outside reversal setup in a different light for a moment. One of the reasons I like this setup is because the two-bar pattern reduces into the wick reversal setup, which we covered earlier in the chapter. If you are not familiar with candlestick reduction, the idea is simple. You are taking the price data over two or more candlesticks and combining them to create a single candlestick . Therefore, you will be taking the open, high, low, and close prices of the bars in question to create a single composite candlestick . Doji Reversal The doji candlestick is the epitome of indecision. The pattern illustrates a virtual stalemate between buyers and sellers, which means the existing trend may be on the verge of a reversal. If buyers have been controlling a bullish advance over a period of time, you will typically see full-bodied candlesticks that personify the bullish nature of the move. However, if a doji candlestick suddenly appears, the indication is that buyers are suddenly not as confident in upside price potential as they once were. This is clearly a point of indecision, as buyers are no longer pushing price to higher valuation, and have allowed sellers to battle them to a draw-at least for this one candlestick . This leads to profit taking, as buyers begin to sell their profitable long positions, which is heightened by responsive sellers entering the market due to perceived overvaluation. This "double whammy" of selling pressure essentially pushes price lower, as responsive sellers take control of the market and push price back toward fair value.
Indicatore Pine Script®
di ParCorn
7
Donchian Channel with Range AdditionA Donchian Channel with additional zones at places where its range is smaller than a set amount of atr. Thus it kind of combines with Keltner Channel qualities. Purpose is to set a stop loss wide enough to avoid shaking out of a position. The example chart shows a Philips day chart, where I opened position on 16 juli at 37,50 and set the stop loss at low border level 35,60, on 23 juli was an earnings rapport, the wick of the candle shows that quotes went very low, obviously smart traders had to fill a huge order and hunted for stops, triggering my stop closing the position. next days quotes went a lot better, so I missed the fun. The Donchian Channel was too narrow because quotes had ranged in the previous weeks. If I had placed my stop on the additional low, setting it 5 atr below the high border, my stop would have been safe.
Indicatore Pine Script®
di eykpunter
1
Dhananjay Volatility stop strategy v1.0 Sharing one more strategy after getting good feedback on my earlier published strategy. This is simple volatility stop strategy where in we are using VStop as entry and exit point. Again smart traders can add MA to decide the trend and can avoid trading in opposite direction of trend which will help them to minimize loss making trades. There are more than 1 parameters which traders can use/change to make this strategy compatible to their instrument. To understand what is VStop use google.com :-) Looking forward to receiving feedback from all of you.
Strategia Pine Script®
di dhananjay.d.joshi
8
PivotBoss Extreme Reversal SetupPATTERN SUMMARY 1. The first bar of the pattern is about two times larger than the average size of the candles in the lookback period. 2. The body of the first bar of the pattern should encompass more than 50 percent of the bar's total range, but usually not more than 85 percent. 3. The second bar of the pattern opposes the first. If the first bar of the pattern is bullish (C > 0), then the second bar must be bearish (C < 0). If the first bar is bearish (C < 0), then the second bar must be bullish (C > 0). PATTERN PSYCHOLOGY The extreme reversal setup is a clever pattern that capitalizes on the ongoing psychological patterns of investors, traders, and institutions. Basically, the setup looks for an extreme pattern of selling pressure and then looks to fade this behavior to capture a bullish move higher (reverse for shorts). In essence, this setup is visually pointing out oversold and overbought scenarios that forces responsive buyers and sellers to come out of the dark and put their money to work-price has been over-extended and must be pushed back toward a fair area of value so two-sided trade can take place. This setup works because many normal investors, or casual traders, head for the exits once their trade begins to move sharply against them. When this happens, price becomes extremely overbought or oversold, creating value for responsive buyers and sellers. Therefore, savvy professionals will see that price is above or below value and will seize the opportunity. When the scared money is selling, the smart money begins to buy, and Vice versa. Look at it this way, when the market sells off sharply in one giant candlestick, traders that were short during the drop begin to cover their profitable positions by buying. Likewise, the traders that were on the sidelines during the sell-off now see value in lower prices and begin to buy, thus doubling up on the buying pressure. This helps to spark a sharp v-bottom reversal that pushes price in the opposite direction back toward fair value.
Indicatore Pine Script®
di ParCorn
4