Smart Money Concepts Probability (Expo)█ Overview
The Smart Money Concept Probability (Expo) is an indicator developed to track the actions of institutional investors, commonly known as "smart money." This tool calculates the likelihood of smart money being actively engaged in buying or selling within the market, referred to as the "smart money order flow."
The indicator measures the probability of three key events: Change of Character ( CHoCH ), Shift in Market Structure ( SMS ), and Break of Structure ( BMS ). These probabilities are displayed as percentages alongside their respective levels, providing a straightforward and immediate understanding of the likelihood of smart money order flow.
Finally, the backtested results are shown in a table, which gives traders an understanding of the historical performance of the current order flow direction.
█ Calculations
The algorithm individually computes the likelihood of the events ( CHoCH , SMS , and BMS ). A positive score is assigned for events where the price successfully breaks through the level with the highest probability, and a negative score when the price fails to do so. By doing so, the algorithm determines the probability of each event occurring and calculates the total profitability derived from all the events.
█ Example
In this case, we have an 85% probability that the price will break above the upper range and make a new Break Of Structure and only a 16.36% probability that the price will break below the lower range and make a Change Of Character.
█ Settings
The Structure Period sets the pivot period to use when calculating the market structure.
The Structure Response sets how responsive the market structure should be. A low value returns a more responsive structure. A high value returns a less responsive structure.
█ How to use
This indicator is a perfect tool for anyone that wants to understand the probability of a Change of Character ( CHoCH ), Shift in Market Structure ( SMS ), and Break of Structure ( BMS )
The insights provided by this tool help traders gain an understanding of the smart money order flow direction, which can be used to determine the market trend.
█ Any Alert function call
An alert is sent when the price breaks the upper or lower range, and you can select what should be included in the alert. You can enable the following options:
Ticker ID
Timeframe
Probability percentage
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Smartmoneyconcept
BIAS NotesUsage: This indicator allows you to note on your desired pair what is the current state of the trends.
!! How to use: You have to input the values for each table case to your desire in the indicator settings. !!
With this indicator you can note :
-what is the timeframe Bias
-which supply or demand we`ve just hit
I use this as a tool for my analysis with Insitutional Orderflow/SMC (Smart Money Concepts).
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) [LuxAlgo]This all-in-one indicator displays real-time market structure (internal & swing BOS / CHoCH), order blocks, premium & discount zones, equal highs & lows, and much more...allowing traders to automatically mark up their charts with widely used price action methodologies. Following the release of our Fair Value Gap script, we received numerous requests from our community to release more features in the same category.
"Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) is a fairly new yet widely used term amongst price action traders looking to more accurately navigate liquidity & find more optimal points of interest in the market. Trying to determine where institutional market participants have orders placed (buy or sell side liquidity) can be a very reasonable approach to finding more practical entries & exits based on price action.
The indicator includes alerts for the presence of swing structures and many other relevant conditions.
Features
This indicator includes many features relevant to SMC, these are highlighted below:
Full internal & swing market structure labeling in real-time
Break of Structure (BOS)
Change of Character (CHoCH)
Order Blocks (bullish & bearish)
Equal Highs & Lows
Fair Value Gap Detection
Previous Highs & Lows
Premium & Discount Zones as a range
Options to style the indicator to more easily display these concepts
Settings
Mode: Allows the user to select Historical (default) or Present, which displays only recent data on the chart.
Style: Allows the user to select different styling for the entire indicator between Colored (default) and Monochrome.
Color Candles: Plots candles based on the internal & swing structures from within the indicator on the chart.
Internal Structure: Displays the internal structure labels & dashed lines to represent them. (BOS & CHoCH).
Confluence Filter: Filter non-significant internal structure breakouts.
Swing Structure: Displays the swing structure labels & solid lines on the chart (larger BOS & CHoCH labels).
Swing Points: Displays swing points labels on chart such as HH, HL, LH, LL.
Internal Order Blocks: Enables Internal Order Blocks & allows the user to select how many most recent Internal Order Blocks appear on the chart.
Swing Order Blocks: Enables Swing Order Blocks & allows the user to select how many most recent Swing Order Blocks appear on the chart.
Equal Highs & Lows: Displays EQH/EQL labels on chart for detecting equal highs & lows.
Bars Confirmation: Allows the user to select how many bars are needed to confirm an EQH/EQL symbol on chart.
Fair Value Gaps: Displays boxes to highlight imbalance areas on the chart.
Auto Threshold: Filter out non-significant fair value gaps.
Timeframe: Allows the user to select the timeframe for the Fair Value Gap detection.
Extend FVG: Allows the user to choose how many bars to extend the Fair Value Gap boxes on the chart.
Highs & Lows MTF: Allows the user to display previous highs & lows from daily, weekly, & monthly timeframes as significant levels.
Premium/Discount Zones: Allows the user to display Premium, Discount, and Equilibrium zones on the chart
Usage
Users can see automatic CHoCH and BOS labels to highlight breakouts of market structure, which allows to determine the market trend. In the chart below we can see the internal structure which displays more frequent labels within larger structures. We can also see equal highs & lows (EQH/EQL) labels plotted alongside the internal structure to frequently give indications of potential reversals.
In the chart below we can see the swing market structure labels. These are also labeled as BOS and CHoCH but with a solid line & larger text to show larger market structure breakouts & trend reversals. Users can be mindful of these larger structure labels while trading internal structures as displayed in the previous chart.
Order blocks highlight areas where institutional market participants open positions, one can use order blocks to determine confirmation entries or potential targets as we can expect there is a large amount of liquidity at these order blocks. In the chart below we can see 2 potential trade setups with confirmation entries. The path outlined in red would be a potential short entry targeting the blue order block below, and the path outlined in green would be a potential long entry, targeting the red order blocks above.
As we can see in the chart below, the bullish confirmation entry played out in this scenario with the green path outlined in hindsight. As price breaks though the order blocks above, the indicator will consider them mitigated causing them to disappear, and as per the logic of these order blocks they will always display 5 (by default) on the chart so we can now see more actionable levels.
The Smart Money Concepts indicator has many other features and here we can see how they can also help a user find potential levels for price action trading. In the screenshot below we can see a trade setup using the Previous Monthly High, Strong High, and a Swing Order Block as a stop loss. Accompanied by the Premium from the Discount/Premium zones feature being used as a potential entry. A potential take profit level for this trade setup that a user could easily identify would be the 50% mark labeled with the Fair Value Gap & the Equilibrium all displayed automatically by the indicator.
Conclusion
This indicator highlights all relevant components of Smart Money Concepts which can be a very useful interpretation of market structure, liquidity, & more simply put, price action. The term was coined & popularized primarily within the forex community & by ICT while making its way to become a part of many traders' analysis. These concepts, with or without this indicator do not guarantee a trader to be trading within the presence of institutional or "bank-level" liquidity, there is no supporting data regarding the validity of these teachings.
Smart Money ConceptSmart Money Concept is being used to understand the Market Structure, Demand/Supply, and Risk Management.
- Lines represent BoS and CHoCH.
- X-cross and Diamond shapes represent Peak and Trough.
- Numbers represent the Spread Percentages.
SMC RulesThis script allowes you to have a plan always shown on the chart.
You know how it is, sometimes you miss things and if you dont see your plan then you miss maybe an important part... so for this i wrote that simple script here.
So far it has 5 Sections you can edit in the settings to your liking.
On top you can also edit the swing structure you are seeing, so you dont have to always swap timeframes.
Also implemented are the Session times for Frankfurt, London, New York and Asia.
Its not enabled on default, but i find it quiet handy to have..
(including alerts)
I will update it from time to time, if you wish for something just let me know.