SPY Master v1.0This is a simple swing trading algorithm that uses a fast RSI-EMA to trigger buy/cover signals and a slow RSI-EMA to trigger sell/short signals for SPY, an xchange-traded fund for the S&P 500.
The idea behind this strategy follows the premise that most profitable momentum trades usually occur during periods when price is trending up or down. Periods of flat price actions are usually where most unprofitable trades occur. Because we cannot predict exactly when trending periods will occur, the algorithm basically bets money on all trade opportunities during all market conditions. Despite an accuracy rate of only 40%, the algorithm's asymmetric risk/reward profile allows the average winner to be 2x the average loser. The end result is a positive (profitable) net payout.
TRADING RULES:
Buy/Cover = EMA3(RSI2) cross> 50
Sell/Short = EMA5(RSI2) cross< 50
BACKTEST SETTINGS:
- Period = March 2011 - Present
- Initial capital = $10,000
- Dividends excluded
- Trading costs excluded
PERFORMANCE COMPARISON:
There are 657 trades, which means 1,314 orders. Assuming each order costs $2 (what I pay for at Interactive Brokers), total trading costs should be $2,628.
-SPY (buy & hold) = 132.73 ---> 193.22 = +45.57% (dividends excluded)
-SPY Master v1.0 = $12,649 - $2,628 = $10,021 = +100.21%
DISCLAIMER: None of my ideas and posts are investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This strategy was constructed with the benefit of hindsight and its future performance cannot be guaranteed.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
After Hours Daytime - Consistency
Use only on Daily charts!!
When average AH moves are consistent with average daytime moves it tends to indicate a trend. The phenomenon is not obvious on a day to day basis but is easy to see with the smoothed changes.
Blue is smoothed daytime change and black is smoothed AH gap. The length is how many periods back to start the differentiation between AH and daytime.
Pink background shows BOTH smoothed AH and daytime changes are falling.
Lime background indicates both are rising.
When used on NYA with parameters shown the indicator give warnings with high specificity and reliability for the broader
ATR Pips [LazyBear] [Elixium Mod: FEAR GAUGE]Modified version of ATR Pips
The indicator's value is a third of the daily range which is good to use as a stop loss value for intra day scalping on markets such as index futures and forex.
It's good for detecting and confirming inflection points in the market.
Trailing Sharpe RatioThe Sharpe ratio allows you to see whether or not an investment has historically provided a return appropriate to its risk level. A Sharpe ratio above one is acceptable, above 2 is good, and above 3 is excellent. A Sharpe ratio less than one would indicate that an investment has not returned a high enough return to justify the risk of holding it. Interesting in this example, SPY's one year avg Sharpe ratio is above 3. This would mean on average SPY returns 3x better returns than the risk associated with holding it, implying there is some sort of underlying value to the investment.
When the sharpe ratio is above its signal, this implies the investment is currently outperforming compared to its typical return, below the signal means the investment is currently under performing. A negative Shape would mean that the investment has not provided a positive return, and may be a possible short candidate.
Deviation Back Tester (Great for Credit Spreads)!Error with math fixed in this one. Please use this one.
This is great for credit spreads! Lets say you wanted to know if you had sold a 15% OTM Bull Put vertical 2 months out, how often would you win? This Turns green if you would have been correct with your credit spread had it expired on that date, or red if you would've been wrong. Great for Back testing!
This could also be used for ATM debit spreads credit spreads etc. Example, how often does SPY deviate outside a 10% range relative to two months, 5% (if your doing straddles perhaps) etc.
This Can be used with any stock.
PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT IT TESTS DEVIATION IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. THEREFORE IT WILL HIGHLIGHT RED ON BOTH THE UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE. WHEN BACKTESTING BE SURE TO CHECK WHETHER IT IS RED BECAUSE OF DOWNSIDE OR UPSIDE.
