Key Performance IndicatorWe are happy to introduce the Key Performance Indicator by Detlev Matthes. This is an amazing tool to quantify the efficiency of a trading system and identify potential spots of improvement.
Abstract
A key performance indicator with high explanatory value for the quality of trading systems is introduced. Quality is expressed as an indicator and comprises the individual values of qualitative aspects. The work developing the KPI was submitted for the 2017 VTAD Award and won first prize.
Introduction
Imagine that you have a variety of stock trading systems from which to select. During backtesting, each trading system will deliver different results with regard to its indicators (depending on, inter alia, its parameters and the stock used). You will also get different forms of progression for profit development. It requires great experience to select the “best” trading system from this variety of information (provided by several indicators) and significantly varying equity progression forms. In this paper, an indicator will be introduced that expresses the quality of a trading system in just one figure. With such an indicator, you can view the results of one backtest at a glance and also more easily compare a variety of backtesting results with one another.
If you are interested in learning more about the calculations behind this indicator then I have included a link to the english version of his research paper.
Along with this, we now offer indicator development services. If you are interested in learning more then feel free to reach out to get a quote for your project.
**Please note that we have NOT inputted any real strategy into the code and therefore it is not producing any real value. Feel free to change the code as desired to test any strategy!**
drive.google.com
Statistics
Breakout Probability (Expo)█ Overview
Breakout Probability is a valuable indicator that calculates the probability of a new high or low and displays it as a level with its percentage. The probability of a new high and low is backtested, and the results are shown in a table— a simple way to understand the next candle's likelihood of a new high or low. In addition, the indicator displays an additional four levels above and under the candle with the probability of hitting these levels.
The indicator helps traders to understand the likelihood of the next candle's direction, which can be used to set your trading bias.
█ Calculations
The algorithm calculates all the green and red candles separately depending on whether the previous candle was red or green and assigns scores if one or more lines were reached. The algorithm then calculates how many candles reached those levels in history and displays it as a percentage value on each line.
█ Example
In this example, the previous candlestick was green; we can see that a new high has been hit 72.82% of the time and the low only 28.29%. In this case, a new high was made.
█ Settings
Percentage Step
The space between the levels can be adjusted with a percentage step. 1% means that each level is located 1% above/under the previous one.
Disable 0.00% values
If a level got a 0% likelihood of being hit, the level is not displayed as default. Enable the option if you want to see all levels regardless of their values.
Number of Lines
Set the number of levels you want to display.
Show Statistic Panel
Enable this option if you want to display the backtest statistics for that a new high or low is made. (Only if the first levels have been reached or not)
█ Any Alert function call
An alert is sent on candle open, and you can select what should be included in the alert. You can enable the following options:
Ticker ID
Bias
Probability percentage
The first level high and low price
█ How to use
This indicator is a perfect tool for anyone that wants to understand the probability of a breakout and the likelihood that set levels are hit.
The indicator can be used for setting a stop loss based on where the price is most likely not to reach.
The indicator can help traders to set their bias based on probability. For example, look at the daily or a higher timeframe to get your trading bias, then go to a lower timeframe and look for setups in that direction.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Strategy BackTest Display Statistics - TraderHalaiThis script was born out of my quest to be able to display strategy back test statistics on charts to allow for easier backtesting on devices that do not natively support backtest engine (such as mobile phones, when I am backtesting from away from my computer). There are already a few good ones on TradingView, but most / many are too complicated for my needs.
Found an excellent display backtest engine by 'The Art of Trading'. This script is a snippet of his hard work, with some very minor tweaks and changes. Much respect to the original author.
Full credit to the original author of this script. It can be found here: www.tradingview.com
I decided to modify the script by simplifying it down and make it easier to integrate into existing strategies, using simple copy and paste, by relying on existing tradingview strategy backtester inputs. I have also added 3 additional performance metrics:
- Max Run Up
- Average Win per trade
- Average Loss per trade
As this is a work in progress, I will look to add in more performance metrics in future, as I further develop this script.
Feel free to use this display panel in your scripts and strategies.
Thanks and enjoy :)
FunctionDynamicTimeWarpingLibrary "FunctionDynamicTimeWarping"
"In time series analysis, dynamic time warping (DTW) is an algorithm for
measuring similarity between two temporal sequences, which may vary in
speed. For instance, similarities in walking could be detected using DTW,
even if one person was walking faster than the other, or if there were
accelerations and decelerations during the course of an observation.
DTW has been applied to temporal sequences of video, audio, and graphics
data — indeed, any data that can be turned into a linear sequence can be
analyzed with DTW. A well-known application has been automatic speech
recognition, to cope with different speaking speeds. Other applications
include speaker recognition and online signature recognition.
It can also be used in partial shape matching applications."
"Dynamic time warping is used in finance and econometrics to assess the
quality of the prediction versus real-world data."
~~ wikipedia
reference:
en.wikipedia.org
towardsdatascience.com
github.com
cost_matrix(a, b, w)
Dynamic Time Warping procedure.
Parameters:
a : array, data series.
b : array, data series.
w : int , minimum window size.
Returns: matrix optimum match matrix.
traceback(M)
perform a backtrace on the cost matrix and retrieve optimal paths and cost between arrays.
Parameters:
M : matrix, cost matrix.
Returns: tuple:
array aligned 1st array of indices.
array aligned 2nd array of indices.
float final cost.
reference:
github.com
report(a, b, w)
report ordered arrays, cost and cost matrix.
Parameters:
a : array, data series.
b : array, data series.
w : int , minimum window size.
Returns: string report.
10yr, 20yr, 30yr Averages: Month/Month % Change; SeasonalityCalculates 10yr, 20yr and 30yr averages for month/month % change
~shows seasonal tendencies in assets (best in commodities). In above chart: August is a seasonally bullish month for Gold: All the averages agree. And January is the most seasonally bullish month.
~averages represent current month/previous month. i.e. Jan22 average % change represents whole of jan22 / whole of dec21
~designed for daily timeframe only: I found calling monthly data too buggy to work with, and I thought weekly basis may be less precise (though it would certainly reduce calculation time!)
~choose input year, and see the previous 10yrs of monthly % change readings, and previous 10yrs Average, 20yr Average, 30yr Average for the respective month. Labels table is always anchored to input year.
~user inputs: colors | label sizes | decimal places | source expression for averages | year | show/hide various sections
~multi-yr averges always print, i.e if only 10yrs history => 10yr Av = 20yr Av = 30yr Av. 'History Available' label helps here.
Based on my previously publised script: "Month/Month Percentage % Change, Historical; Seasonal Tendency"
Publishing this as seperate indicator because:
~significantly slower to load (around 13 seconds)
~non-premium users may not have the historical bars available to use 20yr or 30yr averages =>> prefer the lite/speedier version
~~tips~~
~after loading, touch the new right scale; then can drag the table as you like and seperate it from price chart
##Debugging/tweaking##
Comment-in the block at the end:
~test/verifify specific array elements elements.
~see the script calculation/load time
~~other ideas ~~
~could tweak the array.slice values in lines 313 - 355 to show the last 3 consecutive 10yr averages instead (i.e. change 0, 10 | 0,20 | 0, 30 to 0, 10 | 10, 20 | 20,30)
~add 40yr average by adding another block to each of the array functions, and tweaking the respective labels after line 313 (though this would likely add another 5 seconds to the load time)
~use alternative method for getting obtaining multi-year values from individual month elements. I used array.avg. You could try array.median, array.mode, array.variance, array.max, array.min (lines 313-355)
Percentage Up/Down vs lowest/highestPercentage difference at current price (close) to lowest and highest certain number of bars ago (14, 36, 96).
Quantity Theory of Money (Inflation Growth Rate)Quantity Theory of Money ( Inflation Growth Rate)
Equation:
%ΔM+%ΔV=%ΔP+%ΔY
M - Money Supply , V - Money Velocity , Y - Real GDP, P - Price
This script only takes into account money supply theory and does not account for increases/decreases in inflation due to energy costs. QTM Calculation is compared to USIRYY , USCCPI , and Sticky Price CPI . Flex_CPI and Flex_Core_CPI are not available in Trading View for comparison.
Simple Moving Average Default it set to 3 quarters for smoothing purposes. You can change this via the input window as you see fit.
FunctionKellyCriterionLibrary "FunctionKellyCriterion"
Kelly criterion methods.
the kelly criterion helps with the decision of how much one should invest in
a asset as long as you know the odds and expected return of said asset.
simplified(win_p, rr)
simplified version of the kelly criterion formula.
Parameters:
win_p : float, probability of winning.
rr : float, reward to risk rate.
Returns: float, optimal fraction to risk.
usage:
simplified(0.55, 1.0)
partial(win_p, loss_p, win_rr, loss_rr)
general form of the kelly criterion formula.
Parameters:
win_p : float, probability of the investment returns a positive outcome.
loss_p : float, probability of the investment returns a negative outcome.
win_rr : float, reward on a positive outcome.
loss_rr : float, reward on a negative outcome.
Returns: float, optimal fraction to risk.
usage:
partial(0.6, 0.4, 0.6, 0.1)
from_returns(returns)
Calculate the fraction to invest from a array of returns.
Parameters:
returns : array trade/asset/strategy returns.
Returns: float, optimal fraction to risk.
usage:
from_returns(array.from(0.1,0.2,0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.05))
final_f(fraction, max_expected_loss)
Final fraction, eg. if fraction is 0.2 and expected max loss is 10%
then you should size your position as 0.2/0.1=2 (leverage, 200% position size).
Parameters:
fraction : float, aproximate percent fraction invested.
max_expected_loss : float, maximum expected percent on a loss (ex 10% = 0.1).
Returns: float, final fraction to invest.
usage:
final_f(0.2, 0.5)
hpr(fraction, trade, biggest_loss)
Holding Period Return function
Parameters:
fraction : float, aproximate percent fraction invested.
trade : float, profit or loss in a trade.
biggest_loss : float, value of the biggest loss on record.
Returns: float, multiplier of effect on equity so that a win of 5% is 1.05 and loss of 5% is 0.95.
usage:
hpr(fraction=0.05, trade=0.1, biggest_loss=-0.2)
twr(returns, rr, eps)
Terminal Wealth Relative, returns a multiplier that can be applied
to the initial capital that leadds to the final balance.
Parameters:
returns : array, list of trade returns.
rr : float , reward to risk rate.
eps : float , minimum resolution to void zero division.
Returns: float, optimal fraction to invest.
usage:
twr(returns=array.from(0.1,-0.2,0.3), rr=0.6)
ghpr(returns, rr, eps)
Geometric mean Holding Period Return, represents the average multiple made on the stake.
Parameters:
returns : array, list of trade returns.
rr : float , reward to risk rate.
eps : float , minimum resolution to void zero division.
Returns: float, multiplier of effect on equity so that a win of 5% is 1.05 and loss of 5% is 0.95.
usage:
ghpr(returns=array.from(0.1,-0.2,0.3), rr=0.6)
run_coin_simulation(fraction, initial_capital, n_series, n_periods)
run multiple coin flipping (binary outcome) simulations.
Parameters:
fraction : float, fraction of capital to bet.
initial_capital : float, capital at the start of simulation.
n_series : int , number of simulation series.
n_periods : int , number of periods in each simulation series.
Returns: matrix(n_series, n_periods), matrix with simulation results per row.
usage:
run_coin_simulation(fraction=0.1)
run_asset_simulation(returns, fraction, initial_capital)
run a simulation over provided returns.
Parameters:
returns : array, trade, asset or strategy percent returns.
fraction : float , fraction of capital to bet.
initial_capital : float , capital at the start of simulation.
Returns: array, array with simulation results.
usage:
run_asset_simulation(returns=array.from(0.1,-0.2,0.-3,0.4), fraction=0.1)
strategy_win_probability()
calculate strategy() current probability of positive outcome in a trade.
strategy_avg_won()
calculate strategy() current average won on a trade with positive outcome.
strategy_avg_loss()
calculate strategy() current average lost on a trade with negative outcome.
FLEX KDJ INDHi Dears!
Here you have this ability to define different methods to aquire high and low bonds in KDJ indicator.
Thses Topologies are available in Popup menu and could be defined by user:
- "AVG" : Use average of cashed data in both High and low Bond
- "MEDIAN" : Use median of cashed data in both High and low Bond
- "MAX" : Use Max of cashed data in both High and low Bond
- "MIN" : Use Min of cashed data in both High and low Bond
- "WIDE" : Use Max of cashed data in High and Min of them for low Bond
- "NARROW" : Use Min of cashed data in High and Max of them for low Bond
- "FIX" : Use predefined constant values by user in 'Max BOND' and 'Min BOND'
- "GAUSS" Use statistical standard deviation method and 'Mult. Max BOND' and 'Mult. Min BOND' to calculate High and low Bond.
In "LEFT RANGE" and "RIGHT RANGE" you can define the range which be used to find pivot and extremum points in calculation of highest and lowest LONG-TERM KDJ Line.
'MEMORY' is the size of cash that you want to collect the extracted data from extreimum points for highest and lowest LONG-TERM-KDJ. If overflowing from this point the oldest value would be kicked from cash.
Other parts are same in KDJ Indicators.
Enjoy trading!
Shakib.
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Historical US Bond Yield CurvePreface: I'm just the bartender serving today's freshly blended concoction; I'd like to send a massive THANK YOU to all the coders and PineWizards for the locally-sourced ingredients. I am simply a code editor, not a code author. Many thanks to these original authors!
Source 1 (Aug 8, 2019):
Source 2 (Aug 11, 2019):
About the Indicator: The term yield curve refers to the yields of U.S. treasury bills, notes, and bonds in order from shortest to longest maturity date. The yield curve describes the shapes of the term structures of interest rates and their respective terms to maturity in years. The slope of the yield curve tells us how the bond market expects short-term interest rates to move in the future based on bond traders' expectations about economic activity and inflation. The best use of the yield curve is to get a sense of the economy's direction rather than to try to make an exact prediction. This indicator plots the U.S. yield curve as maturity (x-axis/time) vs yield (y-axis/price) in addition to historical yield curves and advanced data tickers . The visual array of historical yield curves helps investors visualize shifts in the yield curve that are useful when identifying & forecasting economic conditions. The bond market can help predict the direction of the economy which can be useful in crafting your investment strategy. An inverted 10y/2y yield curve for durations longer than 5 consecutive trading days signals an almost certain recession on the horizon. An inversion happens when short-term bonds pay better than longer-term bonds. There is Federal Reserve Board data that suggests the 10y3m may be a better predictor of recessions.
Features: Advanced dual data ticker that performs curve & important spread analysis, plus additional hover info. Advanced yield curve data labels with additional hover info. Customizable historical curves and color theme.
‼ IMPORTANT: Hover over labels/tables for advanced information. Chart asset and timeframe may affect the yield curve results; I have found consistently accurate results using BINANCE:BTCUSDT on 1d timeframe. Historical curve lookbacks will have an effect on whether the curve analysis says the curve is bull/bear steepening/flattening, so please use appropriate lookbacks.
⚠ DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Not a trading system. DYOR. I am not affiliated with the original authors, TradingView, Binance, or the Federal Reserve Board.
About the Editor: I am a former FINRA Registered Representative, inventor/patent holder, futures trader, and hobby PineScripter.
Month/Month Percentage % Change, Historical; Seasonal TendencyTable of monthly % changes in Average Price over the last 10 years (or the 10 yrs prior to input year).
Useful for gauging seasonal tendencies of an asset; backtesting monthly volatility and bullish/bearish tendency.
~~User Inputs~~
Choose measure of average: sma(close), sma(ohlc4), vwap(close), vwma(close).
Show last 10yrs, with 10yr average % change, or to just show single year.
Chose input year; with the indicator auto calculating the prior 10 years.
Choose color for labels and size for labels; choose +Ve value color and -Ve value color.
Set 'Daily bars in month': 21 for Forex/Commodities/Indices; 30 for Crypto.
Set precision: decimal places
~~notes~~
-designed for use on Daily timeframe (tradingview is buggy on monthly timeframe calculations, and less precise on weekly timeframe calculations).
-where Current month of year has not occurred yet, will print 9yr average.
-calculates the average change of displayed month compared to the previous month: i.e. Jan22 value represents whole of Jan22 compared to whole of Dec21.
-table displays on the chart over the input year; so for ES, with 2010 selected; shows values from 2001-2010, displaying across 2010-2011 on the chart.
-plots on seperate right hand side scale, so can be shrunk and dragged vertically.
-thanks to @gabx11 for the suggestion which inspired me to write this
.srb suite vol & infoThe volume indicator
what can replace the built-in volume indicator and It also has some useful features.
and designed to work as overlay in the same pane with open-source indicator by default.
Regular volume Indicator
Volume SMA plot
Large Volume ! emphasize by color & mark.
Ultra Volume ! overlay marking ; x2 x4 x6 lager than regular average volume. it will help you can take the reversal
BTC-agg. Volume
4 BTC-spot & 4 BTC-PERP volume aggregated.
It might helps you don't miss out on important volume flows.
Weighted to spot trading volume when using PERP+spot volume.
If enabled, BTC-agg.Vol automatically applied when selecting BTC-pair.
Information panel (optimized for crypto-currency)
BTC-PERP price & delta (when Binance:BTCUSDT selected)
BTC dominance, Binance:BTCUSDTPERP OI
Symbol, Price, Daily up/down
ATR14 (for checking current volatility)
Recommended setup for .srb suite
tradingview | chart setting > Appearance > Top margin 0%, Bottom margin 0% for optimized screen usage
tradingview | chart setting > Appearance > Right margin 57
.srb suite vol & info --> Visual Order > Bring to Front
.srb suite vol & info --> Pin to scale > No scale (Full-screen)
CryptoCurrency Short X-RayIndicator to show the data on short sellers for cryptocurrencies. Color coded as the following:
Orange=Shortsellers are Shorting
Blue =Shortsellers are Covering
Red =Others are Selling
Green =Others are Buying
Includes lines to show the range that shortsellers have recently (within the last 1024 bars) been operating in to give indication on how extended they are, along with 25%, 50%, and 75% levels inbetween. Do not rely exclusively on this indicator as this can change wildly depending on the situation at hand, and be sure to select the short data in the settings that matches the ticker you're trading.
Beta CalculatorBeta is a measure of an asset's volatility relative to the market (the S&P500 is the most widely used index for this). A beta of 1 indicates that the asset moves exactly like the market, a beta < 1 indicates that the asset is less volatile than the market, and a beta > 1 means that the asset amplifies market movements.
This tool is used to calculate easily the Beta coefficient of an asset using 4 parameters :
- Symbol : The Asset's Ticker
- Reference : The Market Index Ticker
- Lookback Candles : The number of candles to include in the calculation
- (Implict) Resolution : The timeframe you are using, defines the precision
Chart gain/lossis not my code actually its a example in
Pine Script™ and charts become better acquainted
becaus is can useful and it unpublished i just publish that without any channges
As a trader scrolls or zooms on their chart – causing the range of visible bars on the chart to change – scripts using either of these new built-ins will automatically re-execute so that calculations and visuals can adapt to the new context. This opens the door to a whole new variety of scripts that dynamically adjust to changes in the range of visible bars.
This indicator draws an arrow from the open of the first visible bar to the close of the last, and shows the gain/loss for that range
Gotobi TeriyakiUSDJPY Anomaly.
This anomaly originated in Japan.
Buy from 2:00 pm Japan time.
Sell at 9:55 Japan time.
Japanese importers often settle payments to suppliers in dollars, and exchange yen for dollars on settlement days (days falling on a 5 or 10, so-called goto days).
Therefore, on goto days, there is sometimes a shortage of dollars held by financial institutions. This is called the "middle price shortage," and financial institutions purchase dollars through the foreign exchange market to resolve the middle price shortage.
As a result, the dollar currency is bought and USD/JPY depreciates against the yen. Since the yen has historically appreciated against the dollar, exporting companies make forward exchange contracts with financial institutions as a risk hedge.
Financial institutions are therefore forced to procure dollars in the market because they do not have enough dollars in their balance sheets to deliver to exporters.
Five days is called "GO" in Japanese.
Ten days is called "TO" in Japanese.
In Japanese, a day is called "BI".
Now I can eat teriyaki all day long :)
ドル円ゴトー日ストラテジーを作ってみました。
Overloaded Volume-Canddle v1This indicator will detect the candle has volume "too strong" base on "n" previous candle.
The Yellow Line is avg volume base n candle previous.
The Red line show over power volume of canlde.
Important : This indicator can use for forex, but i recommend it for binary options only.
Greater Currency Correlation Matrix (Forex)Other available matrixes I found have a limited number of forex symbols. Consequentially, you need to keep switching them if you want to do a proper analysis. As a result of that, I produced my own currency matrix.
Correlation studies relationships between different price charts.
High correlation may be completely random in the short term, but it may signify a fundamental relationship between the two symbols if calculated over the long term.
For example, the currency of an oil-producing country may rally along with oil, whereas the importer's currency may drop. This means that watching the oil price chart may be worth it for such pairs.
The script includes all Major and Minor pairs with the addition of Gold (XAUEUR) and two optional symbols.
▬▬▬▬
To avoid too frequent use of security(), I decided to calculate all symbol values from EUR pairs. It should improve performance and keep room for some additional symbols in the future.
Please report any bugs.
BTC - Novel RPPI IndicatorHey Everyone,
This is a collab effort between me (a statistician) and @Stein3d (A coder). So if you like this indicator, be sure to also give him the credit!
This a novel indicator theorized by me and applied by Stein3d. We are calling it the RPPI indicator, standing for Regression based Price Prediction Indicator.
This is specifically coded for BTC and cannot be used for alt coins or ETH.
This is pretty beta so your feedback and comments are encouraged!
I will keep it brief, but here is the run down:
What does it do:
The indicator does 3 main things:
1. Predicts bullish targets;
2. Predicts bearish targets;
3. Predicts close price
Who is it applicable for:
This is generally targeted to day trades, but it can have swing trade applications as well. Feel free to get creative with combining it with other indicators that you feel complement it well.
How does it work:
It uses statistical based regressive analysis of BTC to compare current price action to previous price action and determine where the natural high and lows will fall intra-day based on the current price action of the day.
How to use it:
This does not omit the need for technical analysis and chart interpretation; however, it sets realistic expectations of intra-day bullish and bearish price targets as well as its best guess of where the current day close is most likely to fall. Take a look at some of the images below:
The image is pretty self explanatory but you see that there are 2 bull and bear targets. The bull targets, of course, are listed in Green and the bear targets are listed in Red.
There is a dummy neutral support and resistance target which is listed in yellow and the close price is in the purple dotted line.
Of course these are all customizable.
I think that pretty much covers it in a nut shell but let us know if you have any other questions and also please provide feedback!
Thanks for checking it out!
Bar Count for BacktestingHello!
Not much special about this script; you can use date & time, or bar count, to ascertain the number of bars in a time period for backtesting.
This script can be used in conjunction with large scripts incorporating complex intricacies that won't load on 20,000+ bar data sets.
If your script's load time transcends the TV allotted load time - use this script to quickly determine the number of bars in the data set.
Through trial & error you should be able to determine the approximate number of bars your script can execute on without exceeding the imposed time limit!
The image above shows a user-defined time window and, consequently, the script returns the number of bars that constitute the time period.
You can drag the white vertical lines to efficiently configure the calculated time period.
The image above shows functionality for the "Bars Back" feature.
Enjoy!
Binance Futures Swap-Spot Basis LabelNote: This script will only work with Binance Futures Symbols
This script calculates the basis between the Binance Future and Binance Spot market for the coin you are currently viewing and paints a label on the chart which displays the percentage difference between future and spot. If the future is trading below the spot market the text will be red indicating backwardation and if the future is trading above spot, it will be green indicating contango. Please note this script will only work on Binance perps against Binance spot. The script will change based on what perp you are looking at, no inputs are required.
Candle ImbalanceIndicator that shows the imbalance between bearish and bullish candles for a given period.
