TSS Strategy TESTThis is strategy for backtesting TSSPRO script and has all settings from this indicator.
Strategy has setup for 100$ initial capital and 100% entering to each position and 0.04% exchange comission plus take-profit and stop-loss and TSS script settings.
I also have settings for 15min timeframe for BTC & ETH with annually profit ~200-300% (no leverage. i.e. x1).
You can also specify in settings:
+Take profit
+Stop-loss
+Start & end time
Annually Profit Strategy statistics for Binance BTCUSDT 4H (no leverage. i.e. x1)
2020(august) +134%
2019 +93%
2018 +135%
PM me if you want to test it.
Strategy!
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Fisher Transform Indicator This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Market prices do not have a Gaussian probability density function
as many traders think. Their probability curve is not bell-shaped.
But trader can create a nearly Gaussian PDF for prices by normalizing
them or creating a normalized indicator such as the relative strength
index and applying the Fisher transform. Such a transformed output
creates the peak swings as relatively rare events.
Fisher transform formula is: y = 0.5 * ln ((1+x)/(1-x))
The sharp turning points of these peak swings clearly and unambiguously
identify price reversals in a timely manner.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Bollinger Bands Breakout StrategyBollinger Bands Breakout Strategy is the strategy version of Bollinger Bands Filter study version, which can be found under my scripts page. The strategy goes long when price closes above the upper band and goes short signal when price closes below the lower band.
Bollinger Bands is a classic indicator that uses a simple moving average of 20 periods, along with plots of upper and lower bands that are 2 standard deviations away from the basis line. These bands help visualize price volatility and trend based on where the price is, in relation to the bands.
The strategy doesn't take into account any other parameters such as Volume / RSI / Fundamentals etc, so user must use discretion based on confirmations from another indicator or based on fundamentals. The strategy results are based on purely long and short trades and doesn't take into account any user defined targets or stop losses.
The strategy works great when the price closes above/below upper/lower bands with continuation on next bar. It is definitely useful to have this strategy or the Bollinger Bands filter along with other indicators to get early glimpse of breach/fail of bands on candle close during BB squeeze or based on volatility .
This can be used on Heikin Ashi candles for spotting trends, but HA candles are not recommended for trade entries as they don't reflect true price of the asset.
The strategy settings default is 55 SMA and 1 standard deviation for Bollinger Bands filter, but these can be changed from settings.
It is definitely worth reading the 22 rules of Bollinger Bands written by John Bollinger if interested in trading Bollinger Bands successfully.
New Secret Strat V56156After years of resserch and development, I finally finished created the best strategy ever made.
It works on every security you can think of: futures, forex, bitcoin, and so on.
It will adapt the pattern of every chart to make the most money possible.
This is the masterpieace I was hopping to produce one day, and now it is.
Right before you.
Enjoy the best strategy that has ever been created.
Good luck !
Primus V1 - BybitHey everyone,
The current version its a scalping strategy for Bybit but for those that prefers swing trading algo I can do a different version as well for different exchanges.
This is the first version on my algo Primus, expect updates on the months to come.
BlueFX Strategy GOLD M15We are releasing this separate script file for trading Gold on the M15 time frame using our strategy. This can now run independently from the main file instead of changing parameters and saving as a template - thus making the use of these specific settings even easier for our traders.
You can see the back testing profitability shown below, although you can not use back testing to predict the future, both the volume of trades, net profit, win rate and draw down demonstrate a solid foundation and data to move forward from.
The strategy itself is explained in the 'Blue FX Strategy' but see below too for more info.
Our strategy will help you identify the current trend in the markets and highlight when this is changing. The strategy itself is based upon 4 indicators lining up in total confluence to increase the probability of the trade being a success.
Absolutely no technical analysis is needed to trade this - this is a trading tool and has solid back testing results trading in isolation - although you may also use to support your own trading - the choice is yours.
When a trade is valid - a Buy or Sell label will appear with the Entry price, SL and multiple TP's shown on the chart.
IMPORTANT note, the test results show and confirm that the most profitable exit strategy with these Gold settings is 'FT&SL' this means we enter the trade with a Stop Loss (SL) and simply hold and follow the trend (Follow Trend = FT) until a reverse signal is printed.
In our supporting video (see related ideas) you can see the impact of changing this target between multiple TP's and the net effect on both win rate and overall net profitability.
The Lot size will also be displayed and this is based on the risk parameters you have set personally in the calculation section.
What is a Trading View Script?
A script is like an indicator but better, we can verify the success of our strategy by using Trading Views strategy tester function. As shown below and on the chart - you can see the 'Buy' and 'Close Buy' on the chart, supported by a live trading log showing you the entry, entry price date, volume and closing price.
This is a great function for numerous reasons; firstly, you know you are using a strategy that has provided a positive expectancy in back testing, secondly you can use this as a trading journal to support your trading too. This in itself can help you with your trading psychology - letting winning trades run is a prime example of this. Take confidence in the statistics and performance over time.
Ultimately, we believe we have saved YOU the need to firstly, find an edge and a strategy - and all of the time it takes to BACKTEST a strategy - to then find it may or may not work - and then you start again!
Disclaimer alert; Please remember past performance is exactly that - how our strategy performed over those dates tested, it is not obviously a guarantee of future performance.
Interested in access or more information?
No problem, simply drop us a DM via trading view for access information.
Thank you for reading.
Darren
WaveTrend+ Strategy [SystemAlpha]This is a WaveTrend strategy based on WaveTrend Oscillator. In addition to using the normal crossovers, we use trend filters, trailing stop loss and take profit targets. WT+ Strategy was developed for crypto, forex and stocks for 15 minutes to daily timeframe. The main goal was to catch long term trends and ride them.
In this strategy you have a choice of:
Trend Filters:
- Average Directional Index (ADX) – buy when price is trend is up and sell when trend is down.
- Moving Average (MA) – buy when price close above the defined moving average and sell when price close below moving average
- Parabolic SAR – buy when SAR is above price is above price and sell when SAR is below price.
- All - Use ADX, MA and SAR as filters
For MA Filter , you can use the “TF MA Type” and "TF MA Period" parameter to select Simple or Exponential Moving Average and length.
Stop Loss:
- Average True Range (ATR) – ATR % stop as trailing stop loss.
- Parabolic SAR (SAR) – Parabolic SAR adapted as trailing stop loss.
For ATR , you can use the “ATR Trailing Stop Multiplier” parameter to set an initial offset for trailing stop loss.
Take Profit Target:
- Average True Range (ATR) – ATR % stop as trailing stop loss.
- Standard % – Percent as target profit
For ATR , you can use the “ATR Take Profit Multiplier” parameter to set an initial offset for trailing stop loss.
Additional feature include:
- Regular and Hidden Divergence display and alerts
- Filter Overbought and Oversold
- Use WT Cross for Exit
STRATEGY ONLY:
- Set backtest dates
- Set Trade direction - Long, Short or Both
- Use timed exit - Select method and bars
- Method 1: Exit after specified number of bars.
- Method 2: Exit after specified number of bars, ONLY if position is currently profitable.
- Method 3: Exit after specified number of bars, ONLY if position is currently losing.
TradingView Links:
WT+ Oscillator Companion:
WT+ Alerts:
How to use:
1. Apply the script by browsing through Indicators --> Invite-Only scripts and select the indicator
2. Once loaded, click the gear (settings) button to select/adjust the parameters based on your preference.
3. Wait for the next BUY or SELL signal to enter the trade!
Disclaimer:
The indicator and signals generated do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore is not an offer to buy or sell a security; are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate; and are subject to change without notice.
Grid System With Fake MartingaleThe proposed strategy is based on a grid system with a money management that tries to replicate the effect of a martingale without having to double your position size after each loss, hence the name "fake martingale". Note that a balance using this strategy is still subject to exponential decay, the risk is not minimized, as such, it would be dangerous to use this strategy.
For more information on the martingale and grid systems see:
Strategy Settings
Point determines the "grid" size and should be adjusted accordingly to the scale of the security you are applying the strategy to. Higher value would require larger price movements in order to trigger a trade, generating fewer trades as a result.
The order size determines the number of contracts/shares to purchase.
The martingale multiplier determines the factor by which the position size is multiplied after a loss, using values higher to 2 will "squarify" your balance, while a value of 1 would use a constant position sizing.
Finally, the anti-martingale parameter determines whether the strategy uses a reverse martingale or not, if set to true then the position size is multiplied after each win.
How It Works
Let's illustrate how we replicate a martingale without doubling our exposure with a simple casino example. Imagine you are playing roulette, and that you are betting on colors (black/red), your payout is 1 to 1, in the case you win, you will have your initial stake back plus a profit equal to your initial stake.
If your strategy is to recover any previous losses, you can double your stake each time you lose, once you win you will get back the previous losses plus a profit equal to your original stake, this is the martingale system. So how can we win back previous losses without having to double our stake? We could do that by doubling the payout ratio after a loss, so after a loss, we must use a payout ratio of 2:1, if we lose once again we must use a payout of 4:1...etc, our payout ratio would be subject to exponential growth instead of our stake.
Of course, the payout ratio is fixed with casino games, but in trading, we can manipulate the position of our take profit in order to replicate such effect, this is what this strategy is doing. So after a loss, we place our take profit such that a win recover our losses back plus generate a profit.
Advantages
The advantage of this approach is that unlike the martingale we don't double our position size, which instead can remain constant, this is a huge advantage as a martingale will require a significant capital in order to tank a series of losses.
Disadvantages
The main disadvantage of this method is that the price might never reach our take profit after a long losing streak, our balance would remain in the red and we couldn't do anything about it except reset the strategy.
Frictional costs are still a disadvantage, as such, we would need to place our take profits in order to account for them, while this is still better than purchasing additional shares, it minimizes the chances of the price reaching the take profit.
Conclusions
An alternative money management system replicating the effect of a martingale as been presented, we can see that such a system is far from being perfect, and it would be foolish to use it, however, it stills offer a convenient alternative to less aggressive progressive position sizing systems.
I have been receiving some messages from users criticizing me for exposing the martingale money management system, and I understand why but I can't agree, talking about it allow me to warn users against it, the grid-martingale methodology is will create more harm than anything else, the reward is only one side of the story and should always be compared against the risk, so always take a look at all the statics in a backtest.
Thanks for reading!
Shout-Out
This post was made possible thanks to my patrons:
@Happymono, @AmariMars, @kkhaial, @Nugehe, @LucF, @Nosmok, @iflostio, @DankBeans, @ecletv, @Neverstorm, @alex.crown.jr, @uk503, @xkingshotss, @vsov, @jbelka, @yatrader2, @hughza, @ganh
Geometric Brownian Motion BandIf you are an option trader, who are constantly searching opportunities to set up inverse iron condor position or other strategies, you must be familiar in estimating the range induced by Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), or Lognormal distribution someone may call.
The theory behind is adopted in the Black Scholes Option Pricing model, this assumes the asset price follows the GBM, shown below, and estimates the range where the price will fall into on the specific date and probability.
dS = a dt + v dW
Assuming the drift term is zero, this GBM Band applies the same model and helps you to quickly assess the suitable range to set up your option strategies with simple setting:
Length – number of bars covered
Vol Multiple - the z-score of the probability
Default values of the Length and Vol Multiple are set to 20 bars and 2.0 z-score respectively.
You can find an example how the GMB Band work.
You can also applies this GMB Band like how Bollinger's Band does for swing trade or breakaway trade.
If you find this indicator is useful to you, Star it, Follow, Donate, Like and Share.
Your support is a highly motivation for me.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Finite Volume Elements (FVE) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The FVE is a pure volume indicator. Unlike most of the other indicators
(except OBV), price change doesn`t come into the equation for the FVE (price
is not multiplied by volume), but is only used to determine whether money is
flowing in or out of the stock. This is contrary to the current trend in the
design of modern money flow indicators. The author decided against a price-volume
indicator for the following reasons:
- A pure volume indicator has more power to contradict.
- The number of buyers or sellers (which is assessed by volume) will be the same,
regardless of the price fluctuation.
- Price-volume indicators tend to spike excessively at breakouts or breakdowns.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Moving Average Displaced Envelope Strategy Moving Average Displaced Envelope. These envelopes are calculated
by multiplying percentage factors with their displaced expotential
moving average (EMA) core.
How To Trade Using:
Adjust the envelopes percentage factors to control the quantity and
quality of the signals. If a previous high goes above the envelope
a sell signal is generated. Conversely, if the previous low goes below
the envelope a buy signal is given.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
renko candle strategy(lirshah)Renko candles strategy has been written based on renko box plots.
the strategy plots renko boxes and levels for trading,
the buy signals trigger when renko is on uptrend and hit the lower box border and similar scenario for sell signal.
the standard parameter are as bellow:
box size: 3.5$
take profit: 1000 pip
stop loss: 200 pip
the below overview is results of strategy on 1sec chart(normal candle) of Nasdaq index, with 1 contract and 0.5 $ commission per order during New york session.
in order to access scripts contact me directly.
simple but effectiveA new strategy to 'play' with witch uses three moving average lines with user defined length.
default settings are
Enter long when ma(3) (source = high) crosses ma(9) (source = open)
Enter short when ma(3) (source = low) crosses ma(9) (source = open)
Enjoy:)
[AngelHouse] The Monster StudyHello, I'm Angelhouse, a crypto analyst and indicator developer. :)
I would like to introduce you to the newly developed "The Monster" index.
The metric is an upgraded version of the existing "All Eating" indicator.
The index was created to refer to the plot line of the "The Monster" strategic indicator.
- The "Monster" indicator is a strategic indicator created for crypto market transactions.
- This indicator is based on a four-hour time zone and is a strategic indicator using the intersection of the threshold.
- If a plot is crossed, a call is in progress or crossed, a sales signal is generated.
For a detailed description of the indicators, see The Monster Strategy.
※ If you want to obtain access to this indicator with a script dedicated for the first time, please contact the link shown in the signature.
[AngelHouse] The Monster StrategyHello, I'm Angelhouse, a crypto analyst and indicator developer. :)
I would like to introduce you to the newly developed "The Monster" strategic indicators.
The indicator is an upgraded version of the existing "All Eating" strategy indicator.
- The "Monster" indicator is a strategic indicator created for crypto market transactions.
- This indicator is based on a four-hour time zone and is a strategic indicator using the intersection of the threshold.
- If a plot is crossed, a call is in progress or crossed, a sales signal is generated.
※ Explanation of the "The Monster" Strategy Indicator v1.0
1. Long & Short: You can configure your swing strategy based on the signal.
The All Eating Strategy indicator is based on a four-hour frame. Due to the logic nature, the signal does not match at a time higher than 4 hours. Therefore, we recommend that you use the indicator only in a time zone of 4 hours or less.
Also, the signal does not have 100% accuracy, so even if you configure a strategy based on the signal, it is recommended that you set the break/break line and respond.
2. Long Feel & Short Feel: The signal is also quite reliable. The strength of the signal is very reliable when a strong rise and a strong fall occur.
However, the downside is that there may be some offbeat in the transverse section. However, even if the index is offbeat, the loss is small, and if the stock price rises or falls, high expected returns can be expected.
You can use the signal alone, but if you use the Long & Short indicator, you can get better results. If the Long Feel & Short Feel signal is also generated where the Long & Short signal is generated, the probability will be higher, right?
3. Candle color: White cans are formed when cans such as dojorpoenor hammer are generated. The cans have a meaning of reversal when they occur after a strong rise or fall, and can continue the trend when they occur during an ongoing trend.
4. Single item band: The single item band consists of the strong area (blue area) and the weak area (red area) based on the reference line. Stock prices can indicate additional gains when they are in the bullish zone, and additional declines when they are in the weak zone.
Also, you can recognize the top of the strong zone as the resistance line and the bottom of the weak zone as the support line.
The cloud stand in the single band should be located in front of the band for 26 days, but it is also recognized as a role of support and resistance.
5. 1D Baseline: The line of one bar is recalled to 4 hours. blue when the reference line is positive, red when negative, and gray when horizontal, and red when the reference line is positive,
Or, in the opposite case, it's time to suspect a trend inflection.
6. Target line : When a specific period is set (default 20 days setting), the target point is provided in each of the 5 lines, from the highest point in the period to the low point of the current bar, and from the lowest point to the high point of the current bar.
※ If you want to obtain access to this indicator with a script dedicated for the first time, please contact the link shown in the signature.
hullma percentage linesWhat you see is a hullMA (user defined length) with 4 percentage bands attached to it.
The bands percentage and hullMA length can be adjusted to see how the trading strategy performs.
I implemented only long trades with a crossover from one of the lower bands, when it crosses over a high band
it exits the trade.
Improvement coulde be:
-more percentage bands
-short trades
-trades between bands
Enjoy:)
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Extracting The Trend This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Extracting The Trend
The related article is copyrighted material from Stocks & Commodities Mar 2010
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Ergodic TSI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
r - Length of first EMA smoothing of 1 day momentum 4
s - Length of second EMA smoothing of 1 day smoothing 8
u- Length of third EMA smoothing of 1 day momentum 6
Length of EMA signal line 3
Source of Ergotic TSI Close
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book "Momentum,
Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more, we advise you to
read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects of trading: momentum,
direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical engineer before becoming
a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between price and momentum in
step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks at the deficiencies
in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques, including a
fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the intricacies
of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and non-trending periods.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Ergodic MDI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book "Momentum,
Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more, we advise you to
read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects of trading: momentum,
direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical engineer before becoming
a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between price and momentum in
step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks at the deficiencies
in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques, including a
fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the intricacies
of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and non-trending periods.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Best strategy for TradingView (fake)Hello everyone! I want to show you this strategy so you don't fall for the tricks of scammers. On TradingView, you can write an algorithm (probably more than one) that will show any profit you want: from 1% to 100,000% in one year (maybe more)! This can be done, for example, using the built-in linebreak () function and several conditions for opening long and short.
I am sure that sometimes scammers show up on TradingView showing their incredible strategies. Will a smart person sell a profitable quick strategy? When a lot of people start using the quick strategy, it stops working. Therefore, no smart person would sell you a quick strategy. It is acceptable to sell slow strategies: several transactions per month - this does not greatly affect the market.
So, don't fall for the tricks of scammers, write quick strategies yourself.
About this strategy, I can say that the linebreak () function does not work correctly in it. Accordingly, the lines are not drawn correctly on the chart. They are drawn in such a way as to show the maximum profit. I watched this algorithm on a 1m timeframe - no lines are drawn in real time. This is a fake!
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Ergodic MACD This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book
"Momentum, Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more,
we advise you to read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects
of trading: momentum, direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical
engineer before becoming a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship
between price and momentum in step-by-step examples. From this grounding,
he then looks at the deficiencies in other oscillators and introduces some
innovative techniques, including a fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional
issues, he analyzes the intricacies of ADX and offers a unique approach to help
define trending and non-trending periods.
Blau`s indicator is like usual MACD, but it plots opposite of meaningof
stndard MACD indicator.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Grid Like StrategyIt is possible to use progressive position sizing in order to recover from past losses, a well-known position sizing system being the "martingale", which consists of doubling your position size after a loss, this allows you to recover any previous losses in a losing streak + winning an extra. This system has seen a lot of attention from the trading community (mostly from beginners), and many strategies have been designed around the martingale, one of them being "grid trading strategies".
While such strategies often shows promising results on paper, they are often subjects to many frictions during live trading that makes them totally unusable and dangerous to the trader. The motivations behind posting such a strategy isn't to glorify such systems, but rather to present the problems behind them, many users come to me with their ideas and glorious ways to make money, sometimes they present strategies using the martingale, and it is important to present the flaws of this methodology rather than blindly saying "you shouldn't use it".
Strategy Settings
Point determines the "grid" size and should be adjusted accordingly to the scale of the symbol you are applying the strategy to. Higher value would require larger price movements in order to trigger a trade, as such higher values will generate fewer trades.
The order size determines the number of contracts/shares to purchase.
The martingale multiplier determines the factor by which the position size is multiplied after a loss, using values higher to 2 will "squarify" your balance, while a value of 1 would use a constant position sizing.
Finally, the anti-martingale parameter determines whether the strategy uses a reverse martingale or not, if set to true then the position size is multiplied after any wins.
The Grid
Grid strategies are commons and do not present huge problems until we use certain position sizing methods such as the martingale. A martingale is extremely sensitive to any kind of friction (frictional costs, slippage...etc), the grid strategy aims to provide a stable and simple environment where a martingale might possibly behave well.
The goal of a simple grid strategy is to go long once the price crossover a certain level, a take profit is set at the level above the current one and stop loss is placed at the level below the current one, in a winning scenario the price reach the take profit, the position is closed and a new one is opened with the same setup. In a losing scenario, the price reaches the stop loss level, the position is closed and a short one is opened, the take profit is set at the level below the current one, and a stop loss is set at the level above the current one. Note that all levels are equally spaced.
It follows from this strategy that wins and losses should be constant over time, as such our balance would evolve in a linear fashion. This is a great setup for a martingale, as we are theoretically assured to recover all the looses in a losing streak.
Martingale - Exponential Decays - Risk/Reward
By using a martingale we double our position size (exposure) each time we lose a trade, if we look at our balance when using a martingale we see significant drawdowns, with our balance peaking down significantly. The martingale sequence is subject to exponential growth, as such using a martingale makes our balance exposed to exponential decays, that's really bad, we could basically lose all the initially invested capital in a short amount of time, it follows from this that the theoretical success of a martingale is determined by what is the maximum losing streak you can endure
Now consider how a martingale affects our risk-reward ratio, assuming unity position sizing our martingale sequence can be described by 2^(x-1) , using this formula we would get the amount of shares/contracts we need to purchase at the x trade of a losing streak, we would need to purchase 256 contracts in order to recover from a losing streak of size 9, this is enormous when you take into account that your wins are way smaller, the risk-reward ratio is totally unfair.
Of course, some users might think that a losing streak of size 9 is pretty unlikely, if the probability of winning and losing are both equal to 0.5, then the probability of 9 consecutive losses is equal to 0.5^9 , there are approximately 0.2% of chance of having such large losing streak, note however that under a ranging market such case scenario could happen, but we will see later that the length of a losing streak is not the only problem.
Other Problems
Having a capital large enough to tank 9any number of consecutive losses is not the only thing one should focus on, as we have to take into account market prices and trading dynamics, that's where the ugly part start.
Our first problem is frictional costs, one example being the spread, but this is a common problem for any strategy, however here a martingale is extra sensitive to it, if the strategy does not account for it then we will still double our positions costs but we might not recover all the losses of a losing streak, instead we would be recovering only a proportion of it, under such scenario you would be certain to lose over time.
Another problem are gaps, market price might open under a stop-loss without triggering it, and this is a big no-no.
Equity of the strategy on AMD, in a desired scenario the equity at the second arrow should have been at a higher position than the equity at the first arrow.
In order for the strategy to be more effective, we would need to trade a market that does not close, such as the cryptocurrency market. Finally, we might be affected by slippage, altho only extreme values might drastically affect our balance.
The Anti Martingale
The strategy lets you use an anti-martingale, which double the position size after a win instead of a loss, the goal here is not to recover from a losing strike but instead to profit from a potential winning streak.
Here we are exposing your balance to exponential gross but you might also lose a trade at the end a winning streak, you will generally want to reinitialize your position size after a few wins instead of waiting for the end of a streak.
Alternative
You can use other-kind of progressions for position sizing, such as a linear one, increasing your position size by a constant number each time you lose. More gentle progressions will recover a proportion of your losses in a losing streak.
You can also simulate the effect of a martingale without doubling your position size by doubling your target profit, if for example you have a 10$ profit-target/stop-loss and lose a trade, you can use a 20$ profit target to recover from the lost trade + gain a profit of 10$. While this approach does not introduce exponential decay in your balance, you are betting on the market reaching your take profits, considering the fact that you are doubling their size you are expecting market volatility to increase drastically over time, as such this approach would not be extremely effective for high losing streak.
Conclusion
You will see a lot of auto-trading strategies that are based on a grid approach, they might even use a martingale. While the backtests will look appealing, you should think twice before using such kind of strategy, remember that frictional costs will be a huge challenge for the strategy, and that it assumes that the trader has an important initial capital. We have also seen that the risk/reward ratio is theoretically the worst you can have on a strategy, having a low reward and a high risk. This does not mean that progressive position sizing is bad, but it should not be pushed to the extreme.
It is nice to note that the martingale is originally a betting system designed for casino games, which unlike trading are not subject to frictional costs, but even casino players don't use it, so why would you?
Thx for reading
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Ergodic CSI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book
"Momentum, Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more,
we advise you to read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects
of trading: momentum, direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical
engineer before becoming a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between
price and momentum in step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks
at the deficiencies in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques,
including a fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the
intricacies of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and
non-trending periods.
This indicator plots Ergotic CSI and smoothed Ergotic CSI to filter out noise.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
