40 Ticker Cross-Sectional Z-Scores [BackQuant]40 Ticker Cross-Sectional Z-Scores
BackQuant’s 40 Ticker Cross-Sectional Z-Scores is a powerful portfolio management strategy that analyzes the relative performance of up to 40 different assets, comparing them on a cross-sectional basis to identify the top and bottom performers. This indicator computes Z-scores for each asset based on their log returns and evaluates them relative to the mean and standard deviation over a rolling window. The Z-scores represent how far an asset's return deviates from the average, and these values are used to rank the assets, allowing for dynamic asset allocation based on performance.
By focusing on the strongest-performing assets and avoiding the weakest, this strategy aims to enhance returns while managing risk. Additionally, by adjusting for standard deviations, the system offers a risk-adjusted method of ranking assets, making it suitable for traders who want to dynamically allocate capital based on performance metrics rather than just price movements.
Key Features
1. Cross-Sectional Z-Score Calculation:
The system calculates Z-scores for 40 different assets, evaluating their log returns against the mean and standard deviation over a rolling window. This enables users to assess the relative performance of each asset dynamically, highlighting which assets are performing better or worse compared to their historical norms. The Z-score is a useful statistical tool for identifying outliers in asset performance.
2. Asset Ranking and Allocation:
The system ranks assets based on their Z-scores and allocates capital to the top performers. It identifies the top and bottom assets, and traders can allocate capital to the top-performing assets, ensuring that their portfolio is aligned with the best performers. Conversely, the bottom assets are removed from the portfolio, reducing exposure to underperforming assets.
3. Rolling Window for Mean and Standard Deviation Calculations:
The Z-scores are calculated based on rolling means and standard deviations, making the system adaptive to changing market conditions. This rolling calculation window allows the strategy to adjust to recent performance trends and minimize the impact of outdated data.
4. Mean and Standard Deviation Visualization:
The script provides real-time visualizations of the mean (x̄) and standard deviation (σ) of asset returns, helping traders quickly identify trends and volatility in their portfolio. These visual indicators are useful for understanding the current market environment and making more informed allocation decisions.
5. Top & Bottom Performer Tables:
The system generates tables that display the top and bottom performers, ranked by their Z-scores. Traders can quickly see which assets are outperforming and underperforming. These tables provide clear and actionable insights, helping traders make informed decisions about which assets to include in their portfolio.
6. Customizable Parameters:
The strategy allows traders to customize several key parameters, including:
Rolling Calculation Window: Set the window size for the rolling mean and standard deviation calculations.
Top & Bottom Tickers: Choose how many of the top and bottom assets to display and allocate capital to.
Table Orientation: Select between vertical or horizontal table formats to suit the user’s preference.
7. Forward Test & Out-of-Sample Testing:
The system includes out-of-sample forward tests, ensuring that the strategy is evaluated based on real-time performance, not just historical data. This forward testing approach helps validate the robustness of the strategy in dynamic market conditions.
8. Visual Feedback and Alerts:
The system provides visual feedback on the current asset rankings and allocations, with dynamic labels and plots on the chart. Additionally, users receive alerts when allocations change, keeping them informed of important adjustments.
9. Risk Management via Z-Scores and Std Dev:
The system’s approach to asset selection is based on Z-scores, which normalize performance relative to the historical mean. By incorporating standard deviation, it accounts for the volatility and risk associated with each asset. This allows for more precise risk management and portfolio construction.
10. Note on Mean Reversion Strategy:
If you take the inverse of the signals provided by this indicator, the strategy can be used for mean-reversion rather than trend-following. This would involve buying the underperforming assets and selling the outperforming ones. However, it's important to note that this approach does not work well with highly correlated assets, as the relationship between the assets could result in the same directional movement, undermining the effectiveness of the mean-reversion strategy.
References
www.uts.edu.au
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
www.cmegroup.com
Final Thoughts
The 40 Ticker Cross-Sectional Z-Scores strategy offers a data-driven approach to portfolio management, dynamically allocating capital based on the relative performance of assets. By using Z-scores and standard deviations, this strategy ensures that capital is directed to the strongest performers while avoiding weaker assets, ultimately improving the risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio. Whether you’re focused on trend-following or looking to explore mean-reversion strategies, this flexible system can be tailored to suit your investment goals.
Zscore
Price Statistical Strategy-Z Score V 1.01
Price Statistical Strategy – Z Score V 1.01
Overview
A technical breakdown of the logic and components of the “Price Statistical Strategy – Z Score V 1.01”.
This script implements a smoothed Z-Score crossover mechanism applied to the closing price to detect potential statistical deviations from local price mean. The strategy operates solely on price data (close) and includes signal spacing control and momentum-based candle filters. No volume-based or trend-detection components are included.
Core Methodology
The strategy is built on the statistical concept of Z-Score, which quantifies how far a value (closing price) is from its recent average, normalized by standard deviation. Two moving averages of the raw Z-Score are calculated: a short-term and a long-term smoothed version. The crossover between them generates long entries and exits.
Signal Conditions
Entry Condition:
A long position is opened when the short-term smoothed Z-Score crosses above the long-term smoothed Z-Score, and additional entry conditions are met.
Exit Condition:
The position is closed when the short-term Z-Score crosses below the long-term Z-Score, provided the exit conditions allow.
Signal Gapping:
A minimum number of bars (Bars gap between identical signals) must pass between repeated entry or exit signals to reduce noise.
Momentum Filter:
Entries are prevented during sequences of three or more consecutively bullish candles, and exits are prevented during three or more consecutively bearish candles.
Z-Score Function
The Z-Score is calculated as:
Z = (Close - SMA(Close, N)) / STDEV(Close, N)
Where N is the base period selected by the user.
Input Parameters
Enable Smoothed Z-Score Strategy
Enables or disables the Z-Score strategy logic. When disabled, no trades are executed.
Z-Score Base Period
Defines the number of bars used to calculate the simple moving average and standard deviation for the Z-Score. This value affects how responsive the raw Z-Score is to price changes.
Short-Term Smoothing
Sets the smoothing window for the short-term Z-Score. Higher values produce smoother short-term signals, reducing sensitivity to short-term volatility.
Long-Term Smoothing
Sets the smoothing window for the long-term Z-Score, which acts as the reference line in the crossover logic.
Bars gap between identical signals
Minimum number of bars that must pass before another signal of the same type (entry or exit) is allowed. This helps reduce redundant or overly frequent signals.
Trade Visualization Table
A table positioned at the bottom-right displays live PnL for open trades:
Entry Price
Unrealized PnL %
Text colors adapt based on whether unrealized profit is positive, negative, or neutral.
Technical Notes
This strategy uses only close prices — no trend indicators or volume components are applied.
All calculations are based on simple moving averages and standard deviation over user-defined windows.
Designed as a minimal, isolated Z-Score engine without confirmation filters or multi-factor triggers.
Uptrick: Dynamic Z-Score DeviationOverview
Uptrick: Dynamic Z‑Score Deviation is a trading indicator built in Pine Script that combines statistical filters and adaptive smoothing to highlight potential reversal points in price action. It combines a hybrid moving average, dual Z‑Score analysis on both price and RSI, and visual enhancements like slope‑based coloring, ATR‑based shadow bands, and dynamically scaled reversal signals.
Introduction
Statistical indicators like Z‑Scores measure how far a value deviates from its average relative to the typical variation (standard deviation). Standard deviation quantifies how dispersed a set of values is around its mean. A Z‑Score of +2 indicates a value two standard deviations above the mean, while -2 is two below. Traders use Z‑Scores to spot unusually high or low readings that may signal overbought or oversold conditions.
Moving averages smooth out price data to reveal trends. The Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA) reduces lag and noise through weighted averaging. A Zero‑Lag EMA (approximated here using a time‑shifted EMA) seeks to further minimize delay in following price. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a momentum oscillator that measures recent gains against losses over a set period.
ATR (Average True Range) gauges market volatility by averaging the range between high and low over a lookback period. Shadow bands built using ATR give a visual mood of volatility around a central trend line. Together, these tools inform a dynamic but statistically grounded view of market extremes.
Purpose
The main goal of this indicator is to help traders spot short‑term reversal opportunities on lower timeframes. By requiring both price and momentum (RSI) to exhibit statistically significant deviations from their norms, it filters out weak setups and focuses on higher‑probability mean‑reversion zones. Reversal signals appear when price deviates far enough from its hybrid moving average and RSI deviates similarly in the same direction. This makes it suitable for discretionary traders seeking clean entry cues in volatile environments.
Originality and Uniqueness
Uptrick: Dynamic Z‑Score Deviation distinguishes itself from standard reversal or mean‑reversion tools by combining several elements into a single framework:
A composite moving average (ALMA + Zero‑Lag EMA) for a smooth yet responsive baseline
Dual Z‑Score filters on price and RSI rather than relying on a single measure
Adaptive visual elements, including slope‑aware coloring, multi‑layer ATR shadows, and signal sizing based on combined Z‑Score magnitude
Most indicators focus on one aspect—price envelopes or RSI thresholds—whereas Uptrick: Dynamic Z‑Score Deviation requires both layers to align before signaling. Its visual design aids quick interpretation without overwhelming the chart.
Why these indicators were merged
Every component in Uptrick: Dynamic Z‑Score Deviation has a purpose:
• ALMA: provides a smooth moving average with reduced lag and fewer false crossovers than a simple SMA or EMA.
• Zero‑Lag EMA (ZLMA approximation): further reduces the delay relative to price by applying a time shift to EMA inputs. This keeps the composite MA closer to current price action.
• RSI and its EMA filter: RSI measures momentum. Applying an EMA filter on RSI smooths out false spikes and confirms genuine overbought or oversold momentum.
• Dual Z‑Scores: computing Z‑Scores on both the distance between price and the composite MA, and on smoothed RSI, ensures that signals only fire when both price and momentum are unusually stretched.
• ATR bands: using ATR‑based shadow layers visualizes volatility around the MA, guiding traders on potential support and resistance zones.
At the end, these pieces merge into a single indicator that detects statistically significant mean reversions while staying adaptive to real‑time volatility and momentum.
Calculations
1. Compute ALMA over the chosen MA length, offset, and sigma.
2. Approximate ZLMA by applying EMA to twice the price minus the price shifted by the MA length.
3. Calculate the composite moving average as the average of ALMA and ZLMA.
4. Compute raw RSI and smooth it with ALMA. Apply an EMA filter to raw RSI to reduce noise.
5. For both price and smoothed RSI, calculate the mean and standard deviation over the Z‑Score lookback period.
6. Compute Z‑Scores:
• z_price = (current price − composite MA mean) / standard deviation of price deviations
• z_rsi = (smoothed RSI − mean RSI) / standard deviation of RSI
7. Determine reversal conditions: both Z‑Scores exceed their thresholds in the same direction, RSI EMA is in oversold/overbought zones (below 40 or above 60), and price movement confirms directionality.
8. Compute signal strength as the sum of the absolute Z‑Scores, then classify into weak, medium, or strong.
9. Calculate ATR over the chosen period and multiply by layer multipliers to form shadow widths.
10.Derive slope over the chosen slope length and color the MA line and bars based on direction, optionally smoothing color transitions via EMA on RGB channels.
How this indicator actually works
1. The script begins by smoothing price data with ALMA and approximating a zero‑lag EMA, then averaging them for the main MA.
2. RSI is calculated, then smoothed and filtered.
3. Using a rolling window, the script computes statistical measures for both price deviations and RSI.
4. Z‑Scores tell how far current values lie from their recent norms.
5. When both Z‑Scores cross configured thresholds and momentum conditions align, reversal signals are flagged.
6. Signals are drawn with size and color reflecting strength.
7. The MA is plotted with dynamic coloring; ATR shadows are layered beneath to show volatility envelopes.
8. Bars can be colored to match MA slope, reinforcing trend context.
9. Alert conditions allow automated notifications when signals occur.
Inputs
Main Length: Main MA Length. Sets the period for ALMA and ZLMA.
RSI Length: RSI Length. Determines the lookback for momentum calculations.
Z-Score Lookback: Z‑Score Lookback. Window for mean and standard deviation computations.
Price Z-Score Threshold: Price Z‑Score Threshold. Minimum deviation required for price.
RSI Z-Score threshold: RSI Z‑Score Threshold. Minimum deviation required for momentum.
RSI EMA Filter Length: RSI EMA Filter Length. Smooths raw RSI readings.
ALMA Offset: Controls ALMA’s focal point in the window.
ALMA Sigma: Adjusts ALMA’s smoothing strength.
Show Reversal Signals : Toggle to display reversal signal markers.
Slope Sensitivity: Length for slope calculation. Higher values smooth slope changes.
Use Bar Coloring: Enables coloring of price bars based on MA slope.
Show MA Shadow: Toggle for ATR‑based shadow bands.
Shadow Layer Count: Number of shadow layers (1–4).
Base Shadow ATR Multiplier: Multiplier for ATR when sizing the first band.
Smooth Color Transitions (boolean): Smooths RGB transitions for line and shadows, if enabled.
ATR Length for Shadow: ATR Period for computing volatility bands.
Use Dynamic Signal Size: Toggles dynamic scaling of reversal symbols.
Features
Moving average smoothing: a hybrid of ALMA and Zero‑Lag EMA that balances responsiveness and noise reduction.
Slope coloring: MA line and optionally price bars change color based on trend direction; color transitions can be smoothed for visual continuity.
ATR shadow layers: translucent bands around the MA show volatility envelopes; up to four concentric layers help gauge distance from normal price swings.
Dual Z‑Score filters: price and momentum must both deviate beyond thresholds to trigger signals, reducing false positives.
Dynamic signal sizing: reversal markers scale in size based on the combined Z‑Score magnitude, making stronger signals more prominent.
Adaptive visuals: optional smoothing of color channels creates gradient effects on lines and fills for a polished look.
Alert conditions: built‑in buy and sell alerts notify traders when reversal setups emerge.
Conclusion
Uptrick: Dynamic Z‑Score Deviation delivers a structured way to identify short‑term reversal opportunities by fusing statistical rigor with adaptive smoothing and clear visual cues. It guides traders through multiple confirmation layers—hybrid moving average, dual Z‑Score analysis, momentum filtering, and volatility envelopes—while keeping the chart clean and informative.
Disclaimer
This indicator is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries risk and may not be suitable for all participants. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own analysis and risk management before making trading decisions.
Institutional MACD (Z-Score Edition) [VolumeVigilante]📈 Institutional MACD (Z-Score Edition) — Professional-Grade Momentum Signal
This is not your average MACD .
The Institutional MACD (Z-Score Edition) is a statistically enhanced momentum tool, purpose-built for serious traders and breakout hunters . By applying Z-Score normalization to the classic MACD structure, this indicator uncovers statistically significant momentum shifts , enabling cleaner reads on price extremes, trend continuation, and potential reversals.
💡 Why It Matters
The classic MACD is powerful — but raw momentum values can be noisy and relative , especially on volatile assets like BTC/USD . By transforming the MACD line, signal line, and histogram into Z-scores , we anchor these signals in statistical context . This makes the Institutional MACD:
✔️ Timeframe-agnostic and asset-normalized
✔️ Ideal for spotting true breakouts , not false flags
✔️ A reliable tool for detecting momentum divergence and exhaustion
🧪 Key Features
✅ Full Z-Score normalization (MACD, Signal, Histogram)
✅ Highlighted ±Z threshold bands for overbought/oversold zones
✅ Customizable histogram coloring for visual momentum shifts
✅ Built-in alerts for zero-crosses and Z-threshold breaks
✅ Clean overlay with optional display toggles
🔁 Strategy Tip: Mean Reversion Signals with Statistical Confidence
This indicator isn't just for spotting breakouts — it also shines as a mean reversion tool , thanks to its Z-Score normalization .
When the Z-Score histogram crosses beyond ±2, it marks a statistically significant deviation from the mean — often signaling that momentum is overstretched and the asset may be due for a pullback or reversal .
📌 How to use it:
Z > +2 → Price action is in overbought territory. Watch for exhaustion or short setups.
Z < -2 → Momentum is deeply oversold. Look for reversal confirmation or long opportunities.
These zones often precede snap-back moves , especially in range-bound or corrective markets .
🎯 Combine Z-Score extremes with:
Candlestick confirmation
Support/resistance zones
Volume or price divergence
Other mean reversion tools (e.g., RSI, Bollinger Bands)
Unlike the raw MACD, this version delivers statistical thresholds , not guesswork — helping traders make decisions rooted in probability, not emotion.
📢 Trade Smart. Trade Vigilantly.
Published by VolumeVigilante
Institutional Quantum Momentum Impulse [BullByte]## Overview
The Institutional Quantum Momentum Impulse (IQMI) is a sophisticated momentum oscillator designed to detect institutional-level trend strength, volatility conditions, and market regime shifts. It combines multiple advanced technical concepts, including:
- Quantum Momentum Engine (Hilbert Transform + MACD Divergence + Stochastic Energy)
- Fractal Volatility Scoring (GARCH + Keltner-based volatility)
- Dynamic Adaptive Bands (Self-adjusting thresholds based on efficiency)
- Market Phase Detection (Volume + Momentum alignment)
- Liquidity & Cumulative Delta Analysis
The indicator provides a Z-score normalized momentum reading, making it ideal for mean-reversion and trend-following strategies.
---
## Key Features
### 1. Quantum Momentum Core
- Combines Hilbert Transform, MACD divergence, and Stochastic Energy into a single composite momentum score.
- Normalized using a Z-score for statistical significance.
- Smoothed with EMA/WMA/HMA for cleaner signals.
### 2. Dynamic Adaptive Bands
- Upper/Lower bands adjust based on volatility and efficiency ratio .
- Acts as overbought/oversold zones when momentum reaches extremes.
### 3. Market Phase Detection
- Identifies bullish , bearish , or neutral phases using:
- Volume-Weighted MA alignment
- Fractal momentum extremes
### 4. Volatility & Liquidity Filters
- Fractal Volatility Score (0-100 scale) shows market instability.
- Liquidity Check ensures trades are taken in favorable spread conditions.
### 5. Dashboard & Visuals
- Real-time dashboard with key metrics:
- Momentum strength, volatility, efficiency, cumulative delta, and market regime.
- Gradient coloring for intuitive momentum visualization .
---
## Best Trade Setups
### 1. Trend-Following Entries
- Signal :
- QM crosses above zero + Market Phase = Bullish + ADX > 25
- Cumulative Delta rising (buying pressure)
- Confirmation :
- Efficiency > 0.5 (strong momentum quality)
- Liquidity = High (tight spreads)
### 2. Mean-Reversion Entries
- Signal :
- QM touches upper band + Volatility expanding
- Market Regime = Ranging (ADX < 25)
- Confirmation :
- Efficiency < 0.3 (weak momentum follow-through)
- Cumulative Delta divergence (price high but delta declining)
### 3. Breakout Confirmation
- Signal :
- QM holds above zero after a pullback
- Market Phase shifts to Bullish/Bearish
- Confirmation :
- Volatility rising (expansion phase)
- Liquidity remains high
---
## Recommended Timeframes
- Intraday (5M - 1H): Works well for scalping & swing trades.
- Swing Trading (4H - Daily): Best for trend-following setups.
- Position Trading (Weekly+): Useful for macro trend confirmation.
---
## Input Customization
- Resonance Factor (1.0 - 3.618 ): Adjusts MACD divergence sensitivity.
- Entropy Filter (0.382/0.50/0.618) : Controls stochastic damping.
- Smoothing Type (EMA/WMA/HMA) : Changes momentum responsiveness.
- Normalization Period : Adjusts Z-score lookback.
---
The IQMI is a professional-grade momentum indicator that combines institutional-level concepts into a single, easy-to-read oscillator. It works across all markets (stocks, forex, crypto) and is ideal for traders who want:
✅ Early trend detection
✅ Volatility-adjusted signals
✅ Institutional liquidity insights
✅ Clear dashboard for quick analysis
Try it on TradingView and enhance your trading edge! 🚀
Happy Trading!
- BullByte
Uptrick: Z-Score FlowOverview
Uptrick: Z-Score Flow is a technical indicator that integrates trend-sensitive momentum analysi s with mean-reversion logic derived from Z-Score calculations. Its primary objective is to identify market conditions where price has either stretched too far from its mean (overbought or oversold) or sits at a statistically “normal” range, and then cross-reference this observation with trend direction and RSI-based momentum signals. The result is a more contextual approach to trade entry and exit, emphasizing precision, clarity, and adaptability across varying market regimes.
Introduction
Financial instruments frequently transition between trending modes, where price extends strongly in one direction, and ranging modes, where price oscillates around a central value. A simple statistical measure like Z-Score can highlight price extremes by comparing the current price against its historical mean and standard deviation. However, such extremes alone can be misleading if the broader market structure is trending forcefully. Uptrick: Z-Score Flow aims to solve this gap by combining Z-Score with an exponential moving average (EMA) trend filter and a smoothed RSI momentum check, thus filtering out signals that contradict the prevailing market environment.
Purpose
The purpose of this script is to help traders pinpoint both mean-reversion opportunities and trend-based pullbacks in a way that is statistically grounded yet still mindful of overarching price action. By pairing Z-Score thresholds with supportive conditions, the script reduces the likelihood of acting on random price spikes or dips and instead focuses on movements that are significant within both historical and current contextual frameworks.
Originality and Uniquness
Layered Signal Verification: Signals require the fulfillment of multiple layers (Z-Score extreme, EMA trend bias, and RSI momentum posture) rather than merely breaching a statistical threshold.
RSI Zone Lockout: Once RSI enters an overbought/oversold zone and triggers a signal, the script locks out subsequent signals until RSI recovers above or below those zones, limiting back-to-back triggers.
Controlled Cooldown: A dedicated cooldown mechanic ensures that the script waits a specified number of bars before issuing a new signal in the opposite direction.
Gradient-Based Visualization: Distinct gradient fills between price and the Z-Mean line enhance readability, showing at a glance whether price is trading above or below its statistical average.
Comprehensive Metrics Panel: An optional on-chart table summarizes the Z-Score’s key metrics, streamlining the process of verifying current statistical extremes, mean levels, and momentum directions.
Why these indicators were merged
Z-Score measurements excel at identifying when price deviates from its mean, but they do not intrinsically reveal whether the market’s trajectory supports a reversion or if price might continue along its trend. The EMA, commonly used for spotting trend directions, offers valuable insight into whether price is predominantly ascending or descending. However, relying solely on a trend filter overlooks the intensity of price moves. RSI then adds a dedicated measure of momentum, helping confirm if the market’s energy aligns with a potential reversal (for example, price is statistically low but RSI suggests looming upward momentum). By uniting these three lenses—Z-Score for statistical context, EMA for trend direction, and RSI for momentum force—the script offers a more comprehensive and adaptable system, aiming to avoid false positives caused by focusing on just one aspect of price behavior.
Calculations
The core calculation begins with a simple moving average (SMA) of price over zLen bars, referred to as the basis. Next, the script computes the standard deviation of price over the same window. Dividing the difference between the current price and the basis by this standard deviation produces the Z-Score, indicating how many standard deviations the price is from its mean. A positive Z-Score reveals price is above its average; a negative reading indicates the opposite.
To detect overall market direction, the script calculates an exponential moving average (emaTrend) over emaTrendLen bars. If price is above this EMA, the script deems the market bullish; if below, it’s considered bearish. For momentum confirmation, the script computes a standard RSI over rsiLen bars, then applies a smoothing EMA over rsiEmaLen bars. This smoothed RSI (rsiEma) is monitored for both its absolute level (oversold or overbought) and its slope (the difference between the current and previous value). Finally, slopeIndex determines how many bars back the script compares the basis to check whether the Z-Mean line is generally rising, falling, or flat, which then informs the coloring scheme on the chart.
Calculations and Rational
Simple Moving Average for Baseline: An SMA is used for the core mean because it places equal weight on each bar in the lookback period. This helps maintain a straightforward interpretation of overbought or oversold conditions in the context of a uniform historical average.
Standard Deviation for Volatility: Standard deviation measures the variability of the data around the mean. By dividing price’s difference from the mean by this value, the Z-Score can highlight whether price is unusually stretched given typical volatility.
Exponential Moving Average for Trend: Unlike an SMA, an EMA places more emphasis on recent data, reacting quicker to new price developments. This quicker response helps the script promptly identify trend shifts, which can be crucial for filtering out signals that go against a strong directional move.
RSI for Momentum Confirmation: RSI is an oscillator that gauges price movement strength by comparing average gains to average losses over a set period. By further smoothing this RSI with another EMA, short-lived oscillations become less influential, making signals more robust.
SlopeIndex for Slope-Based Coloring: To clarify whether the market’s central tendency is rising or falling, the script compares the basis now to its level slopeIndex bars ago. A higher current reading indicates an upward slope; a lower reading, a downward slope; and similar readings, a flat slope. This is visually represented on the chart, providing an immediate sense of the directionality.
Inputs
zLen (Z-Score Period)
Specifies how many bars to include for computing the SMA and standard deviation that form the basis of the Z-Score calculation. Larger values produce smoother but slower signals; smaller values catch quick changes but may generate noise.
emaTrendLen (EMA Trend Filter)
Sets the length of the EMA used to detect the market’s primary direction. This is pivotal for distinguishing whether signals should be considered (price aligning with an uptrend or downtrend) or filtered out.
rsiLen (RSI Length)
Defines the window for the initial RSI calculation. This RSI, when combined with the subsequent smoothing EMA, forms the foundation for momentum-based signal confirmations.
rsiEmaLen (EMA of RSI Period)
Applies an exponential moving average over the RSI readings for additional smoothing. This step helps mitigate rapid RSI fluctuations that might otherwise produce whipsaw signals.
zBuyLevel (Z-Score Buy Threshold)
Determines how negative the Z-Score must be for the script to consider a potential oversold signal. If the Z-Score dives below this threshold (and other criteria are met), a buy signal is generated.
zSellLevel (Z-Score Sell Threshold)
Determines how positive the Z-Score must be for a potential overbought signal. If the Z-Score surpasses this threshold (and other checks are satisfied), a sell signal is generated.
cooldownBars (Cooldown (Bars))
Enforces a bar-based delay between opposite signals. Once a buy signal has fired, the script must wait the specified number of bars before registering a new sell signal, and vice versa.
slopeIndex (Slope Sensitivity (Bars))
Specifies how many bars back the script compares the current basis for slope coloration. A bigger slopeIndex highlights larger directional trends, while a smaller number emphasizes shorter-term shifts.
showMeanLine (Show Z-Score Mean Line)
Enables or disables the plotting of the Z-Mean and its slope-based coloring. Traders who prefer minimal chart clutter may turn this off while still retaining signals.
Features
Statistical Core (Z-Score Detection):
This feature computes the Z-Score by taking the difference between the current price and the basis (SMA) and dividing by the standard deviation. In effect, it translates price fluctuations into a standardized measure that reveals how significant a move is relative to the typical variation seen over the lookback. When the Z-Score crosses predefined thresholds (zBuyLevel for oversold and zSellLevel for overbought), it signals that price could be at an extreme.
How It Works: On each bar, the script updates the SMA and standard deviation. The Z-Score is then refreshed accordingly. Traders can interpret particularly large negative or positive Z-Score values as scenarios where price is abnormally low or high.
EMA Trend Filter:
An EMA over emaTrendLen bars is used to classify the market as bullish if the price is above it and bearish if the price is below it. This classification is applied to the Z-Score signals, accepting them only when they align with the broader price direction.
How It Works: If the script detects a Z-Score below zBuyLevel, it further checks if price is actually in a downtrend (below EMA) before issuing a buy signal. This might seem counterintuitive, but a “downtrend” environment plus an oversold reading often signals a potential bounce or a mean-reversion play. Conversely, for sell signals, the script checks if the market is in an uptrend first. If it is, an overbought reading aligns with potential profit-taking.
RSI Momentum Confirmation with Oversold/Overbought Lockout:
RSI is calculated over rsiLen, then smoothed by an EMA over rsiEmaLen. If this smoothed RSI dips below a certain threshold (for example, 30) and then begins to slope upward, the indicator treats it as a potential sign of recovering momentum. Similarly, if RSI climbs above a certain threshold (for instance, 70) and starts to slope downward, that suggests dwindling momentum. Additionally, once RSI is in these zones, the indicator locks out repetitive signals until RSI fully exits and re-enters those extreme territories.
How It Works: Each bar, the script measures whether RSI has dropped below the oversold threshold (like 30) and has a positive slope. If it does, the buy side is considered “unlocked.” For sell signals, RSI must exceed an overbought threshold (70) and slope downward. The combination of threshold and slope helps confirm that a reversal is genuinely in progress instead of issuing signals while momentum remains weak or stuck in extremes.
Cooldown Mechanism:
The script features a custom bar-based cooldown that prevents issuing new signals in the opposite direction immediately after one is triggered. This helps avoid whipsaw situations where the market quickly flips from oversold to overbought or vice versa.
How It Works: When a buy signal fires, the indicator notes the bar index. If the Z-Score and RSI conditions later suggest a sell, the script compares the current bar index to the last buy signal’s bar index. If the difference is within cooldownBars, the signal is disallowed. This ensures a predefined “quiet period” before switching signals.
Slope-Based Coloring (Z-Mean Line and Shadow):
The script compares the current basis value to its value slopeIndex bars ago. A higher reading now indicates a generally upward slope, while a lower reading indicates a downward slope. The script then shades the Z-Mean line in a corresponding bullish or bearish color, or remains neutral if little change is detected.
How It Works: This slope calculation is refreshingly straightforward: basis – basis . If the result is positive, the line is colored bullish; if negative, it is colored bearish; if approximately zero, it remains neutral. This provides a quick visual cue of the medium-term directional bias.
Gradient Overlays:
With gradient fills, the script highlights where price stands in relation to the Z-Mean. When price is above the basis, a purple-shaded region is painted, visually indicating a “bearish zone” for potential overbought conditions. When price is below, a teal-like overlay is used, suggesting a “bullish zone” for potential oversold conditions.
How It Works: Each bar, the script checks if price is above or below the basis. It then applies a fill between close and basis, using distinct colors to show whether the market is trading above or below its mean. This creates an immediate sense of how extended the market might be.
Buy and Sell Labels (with Alerts):
When a legitimate buy or sell condition passes every check (Z-Score threshold, EMA trend alignment, RSI gating, and cooldown clearance), the script plots a corresponding label directly on the chart. It also fires an alert (if alerts are set up), making it convenient for traders who want timely notifications.
How It Works: If rawBuy or rawSell conditions are met (refined by RSI, EMA trend, and cooldown constraints), the script calls the respective plot function to paint an arrow label on the chart. Alerts are triggered simultaneously, carrying easily recognizable messages.
Metrics Table:
The optional on-chart table (activated by showMetrics) presents real-time Z-Score data, including the current Z-Score, its rolling mean, the maximum and minimum Z-Score values observed over the last zLen bars, a percentile position, and a short-term directional note (rising, falling, or flat).
Current – The present Z-Score reading
Mean – Average Z-Score over the zLen period
Min/Max – Lowest and highest Z-Score values within zLen
Position – Where the current Z-Score sits between the min and max (as a percentile)
Trend – Whether the Z-Score is increasing, decreasing, or flat
Conclusion
Uptrick: Z-Score Flow offers a versatile solution for traders who need a statistically informed perspective on price extremes combined with practical checks for overall trend and momentum. By leveraging a well-defined combination of Z-Score, EMA trend classification, RSI-based momentum gating, slope-based visualization, and a cooldown mechanic, the script reduces the occurrence of false or premature signals. Its gradient fills and optional metrics table contribute further clarity, ensuring that users can quickly assess market posture and make more confident trading decisions in real time.
Disclaimer
This script is intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Trading in any financial market comes with substantial risk, and there is no guarantee of success or the avoidance of loss. Historical performance does not ensure future results. Always conduct thorough research and consider professional guidance prior to making any investment or trading decisions.
Trend Reversal Probability [Algoalpha]Introducing Trend Reversal Probability by AlgoAlpha – a powerful indicator that estimates the likelihood of trend reversals based on an advanced custom oscillator and duration-based statistics. Designed for traders who want to stay ahead of potential market shifts, this indicator provides actionable insights into trend momentum and reversal probabilities.
Key Features :
🔧 Custom Oscillator Calculation: Combines a dual SMA strategy with a proprietary RSI-like calculation to detect market direction and strength.
📊 Probability Levels & Visualization: Plots average signal durations and their statistical deviations (±1, ±2, ±3 SD) on the chart for clear visual guidance.
🎨 Dynamic Color Customization: Choose your preferred colors for upward and downward trends, ensuring a personalized chart view.
📈 Signal Duration Metrics: Tracks and displays signal durations with columns representing key percentages (80%, 60%, 40%, and 20%).
🔔 Alerts for High Probability Events: Set alerts for significant reversal probabilities (above 84% and 98% or below 14%) to capture key trading moments.
How to Use :
Add the Indicator: Add Trend Reversal Probability to your favorites by clicking the star icon.
Market Analysis: Use the plotted probability levels (average duration and ±SD bands) to identify overextended trends and potential reversals. Use the color of the duration counter to identify the current trend.
Leverage Alerts: Enable alerts to stay informed of high or extreme reversal probabilities without constant chart monitoring.
How It Works :
The indicator begins by calculating a custom oscillator using short and long simple moving averages (SMA) of the midpoint price. A proprietary RSI-like formula then transforms these values to estimate trend direction and momentum. The duration between trend reversals is tracked and averaged, with standard deviations plotted to provide probabilistic guidance on trend longevity. Additionally, the indicator incorporates a cumulative probability function to estimate the likelihood of a trend reversal, displaying the result in a data table for easy reference. When probability levels cross key thresholds, alerts are triggered, helping traders take timely action.
Statistical Trend Analysis (Scatterplot) [BigBeluga]Statistical Trend Analysis (Scatterplot) provides a unique perspective on market dynamics by combining the statistical concept of z-scores with scatterplot visualization to assess price momentum and potential trend shifts.
🧿 What is Z-Score?
Definition: A z-score is a statistical measure that quantifies how far a data point is from the mean, expressed in terms of standard deviations.
In this Indicator:
A high positive z-score indicates the price is significantly above the average.
A low negative z-score indicates the price is significantly below the average.
The indicator also calculates the rate of change of the z-score, helping identify momentum shifts in the market.
🧿 Key Features:
Scatterplot Visualization:
Displays data points of z-score and its change across four quadrants.
Quadrants help interpret market conditions:
Upper Right (Strong Bullish Momentum): Most data points here signal an ongoing uptrend.
Upper Left (Weakening Momentum): Data points here may indicate a potential market shift or ranging market.
Lower Left (Strong Bearish Momentum): Indicates a dominant downtrend.
Lower Right (Trend Shift to Bullish/Ranging): Suggests weakening bearish momentum or an emerging uptrend.
Color-Coded Candles:
Candles are dynamically colored based on the z-score, providing a visual cue about the price's deviation from the mean.
Z-Score Time Series:
A line plot of z-scores over time shows price deviation trends.
A gray histogram displays the rate of change of the z-score, highlighting momentum shifts.
🧿 Usage:
Use the scatterplot and quadrant gauges to understand the current market momentum and potential shifts.
Monitor the z-score line plot to identify overbought/oversold conditions.
Utilize the gray histogram to detect momentum reversals and trend strength.
This tool is ideal for traders who rely on statistical insights to confirm trends, detect potential reversals, and assess market momentum visually and quantitatively.
GaussianDistributionLibrary "GaussianDistribution"
This library defines a custom type `distr` representing a Gaussian (or other statistical) distribution.
It provides methods to calculate key statistical moments and scores, including mean, median, mode, standard deviation, variance, skewness, kurtosis, and Z-scores.
This library is useful for analyzing probability distributions in financial data.
Disclaimer:
I am not a mathematician, but I have implemented this library to the best of my understanding and capacity. Please be indulgent as I tried to translate statistical concepts into code as accurately as possible. Feedback, suggestions, and corrections are welcome to improve the reliability and robustness of this library.
mean(source, length)
Calculate the mean (average) of the distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
Returns: Mean (μ)
stdev(source, length)
Calculate the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
Returns: Standard deviation (σ)
skewness(source, length, mean, stdev)
Calculate the skewness (γ₁) of the distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
@return Skewness (γ₁)
skewness(source, length)
Overloaded skewness to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Skewness (γ₁)
mode(mean, stdev, skewness)
Estimate mode - Most frequent value in the distribution (approximation based on skewness)
Parameters:
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
skewness (float) : the skewness (γ₁) of the distribution
@return Mode
mode(source, length)
Overloaded mode to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Mode
median(mean, stdev, skewness)
Estimate median - Middle value of the distribution (approximation)
Parameters:
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
skewness (float) : the skewness (γ₁) of the distribution
@return Median
median(source, length)
Overloaded median to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Median
variance(stdev)
Calculate variance (σ²) - Square of the standard deviation
Parameters:
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
@return Variance (σ²)
variance(source, length)
Overloaded variance to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Variance (σ²)
kurtosis(source, length, mean, stdev)
Calculate kurtosis (γ₂) - Degree of "tailedness" in the distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
@return Kurtosis (γ₂)
kurtosis(source, length)
Overloaded kurtosis to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Kurtosis (γ₂)
normal_score(source, mean, stdev)
Calculate Z-score (standard score) assuming a normal distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
@return Z-Score
normal_score(source, length)
Overloaded normal_score to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Z-Score
non_normal_score(source, mean, stdev, skewness, kurtosis)
Calculate adjusted Z-score considering skewness and kurtosis
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
skewness (float) : the skewness (γ₁) of the distribution
kurtosis (float) : the "tailedness" in the distribution
@return Z-Score
non_normal_score(source, length)
Overloaded non_normal_score to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Z-Score
method init(this)
Initialize all statistical fields of the `distr` type
Namespace types: distr
Parameters:
this (distr)
method init(this, source, length)
Overloaded initializer to set source and length
Namespace types: distr
Parameters:
this (distr)
source (float)
length (int)
distr
Custom type to represent a Gaussian distribution
Fields:
source (series float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (series int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
mode (series float) : Most frequent value in the distribution
median (series float) : Middle value separating the greater and lesser halves of the distribution
mean (series float) : μ (1st central moment) - Average of the distribution
stdev (series float) : σ or standard deviation (square root of the variance) - Measure of dispersion
variance (series float) : σ² (2nd central moment) - Squared standard deviation
skewness (series float) : γ₁ (3rd central moment) - Asymmetry of the distribution
kurtosis (series float) : γ₂ (4th central moment) - Degree of "tailedness" relative to a normal distribution
normal_score (series float) : Z-score assuming normal distribution
non_normal_score (series float) : Adjusted Z-score considering skewness and kurtosis
Sharpe Ratio Z-ScoreThis indicator calculates the Sharpe Ratio and its Z-Score , which are used to evaluate the risk-adjusted return of an asset over a given period. The Sharpe Ratio is computed using the average return and the standard deviation of returns, while the Z-Score standardizes this ratio to assess how far the current Sharpe Ratio deviates from its historical average.
The Sharpe Ratio is a measure of how much return an investment has generated relative to the risk it has taken. In the context of this script, the risk-free rate is assumed to be 0, but in real applications, it would typically be the return on a safe investment, like a Treasury bond. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates that the investment's returns are higher compared to its risk, making it a more favorable investment. Conversely, a lower Sharpe Ratio suggests that the investment may not be worth the risk.
Calculation:
Daily Returns Calculation: The script calculates the daily return of the asset. This measures the percentage change in the asset’s closing price from one period to the next.
Sharpe Ratio Calculation: The Sharpe Ratio is calculated by taking the average daily return and dividing it by the standard deviation of the returns, then multiplying by the square root of the period length.
Usage:
Traders and Investors can use the Sharpe Ratio to evaluate how well the asset is compensating for risk. A high Sharpe Ratio indicates a high return per unit of risk, whereas a low or negative Sharpe Ratio suggests poor risk-adjusted returns. In overbought times, an asset would have high/positive returns per unit of risk. In oversold times, an asset would have low/negative returns per unit of risk.
The Z-Score provides a way to compare the current Sharpe Ratio to its historical distribution, offering a more standardized view of how extreme or typical the current ratio is.
Positive Z-score: Indicates that the asset's return is significantly lower than its risk, suggesting potential oversold conditions.
Negative Z-score: Indicates that the asset's return is significantly higher than its risk, suggesting potential overbought conditions.
Red Zone (-3 to -2): Strong overbought conditions.
Green Zone (2 to 3): Strong oversold conditions.
Sharpe Ratio Limitations:
While the Sharpe Ratio is widely used to evaluate risk-adjusted returns, it has its limitations.
Fat Tails: It assumes that returns are normally distributed and does not account for extreme events or "fat tails" in the return distribution. This can be problematic for assets like cryptocurrencies, which may experience large, sudden price swings that skew the return distribution.
Single Risk Factor: The Sharpe Ratio only considers standard deviation (total volatility) as a measure of risk, ignoring other types of risks like skewness or kurtosis, which may also impact an asset’s performance.
Time Frame Sensitivity: The accuracy of the Sharpe Ratio and its Z-Score is heavily influenced by the time frame chosen for the calculation. A longer period may smooth out short-term fluctuations, while a shorter period might be more sensitive to recent volatility.
Overbought and Oversold Zones: The script marks overbought and oversold conditions based on the Z-Score, but this is not a guarantee of market reversal. It’s important to combine this tool with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis for a more comprehensive market evaluation.
Volatility: The Sharpe Ratio and Z-Score depend on the volatility (standard deviation) of the asset’s returns. For highly volatile assets, such as cryptocurrencies, the Sharpe Ratio may not fully capture the true risk or may be misleading if the volatility is transient.
Doesn't Account for Downside Risk: The Sharpe Ratio treats upside and downside volatility equally, which may not reflect how investors perceive risk. Some investors may be more concerned with downside risk, which the Sharpe Ratio does not distinguish from upside fluctuations.
Important Considerations:
The Sharpe Ratio should not be used in isolation. While it provides valuable insights into risk-adjusted returns, it is important to combine it with other performance and risk indicators to form a more comprehensive market evaluation. Relying solely on the Sharpe Ratio may lead to misleading conclusions, particularly in volatile or non-normally distributed markets.
When integrated into a broader investment strategy, the Sharpe Ratio can help traders and investors better assess the risk-return profile of an asset, identifying periods of potential overperformance or underperformance. However, it should be used alongside other tools to ensure more informed decision-making, especially in highly fluctuating markets.
SuperATR 7-Step Profit - Strategy [presentTrading] Long time no see!
█ Introduction and How It Is Different
The SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy is a multi-layered trading approach that integrates adaptive Average True Range (ATR) calculations with momentum-based trend detection. What sets this strategy apart is its sophisticated 7-step take-profit mechanism, which combines four ATR-based exit levels and three fixed percentage levels. This hybrid approach allows traders to dynamically adjust to market volatility while systematically capturing profits in both long and short market positions.
Traditional trading strategies often rely on static indicators or single-layered exit strategies, which may not adapt well to changing market conditions. The SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy addresses this limitation by:
- Using Adaptive ATR: Enhances the standard ATR by making it responsive to current market momentum.
- Incorporating Momentum-Based Trend Detection: Identifies stronger trends with higher probability of continuation.
- Employing a Multi-Step Take-Profit System: Allows for gradual profit-taking at predetermined levels, optimizing returns while minimizing risk.
BTCUSD 6hr Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The strategy revolves around detecting strong market trends and capitalizing on them using an adaptive ATR and momentum indicators. Below is a detailed breakdown of each component of the strategy.
🔶 1. True Range Calculation with Enhanced Volatility Detection
The True Range (TR) measures market volatility by considering the most significant price movements. The enhanced TR is calculated as:
TR = Max
Where:
High and Low are the current bar's high and low prices.
Previous Close is the closing price of the previous bar.
Abs denotes the absolute value.
Max selects the maximum value among the three calculations.
🔶 2. Momentum Factor Calculation
To make the ATR adaptive, the strategy incorporates a Momentum Factor (MF), which adjusts the ATR based on recent price movements.
Momentum = Close - Close
Stdev_Close = Standard Deviation of Close over n periods
Normalized_Momentum = Momentum / Stdev_Close (if Stdev_Close ≠ 0)
Momentum_Factor = Abs(Normalized_Momentum)
Where:
Close is the current closing price.
n is the momentum_period, a user-defined input (default is 7).
Standard Deviation measures the dispersion of closing prices over n periods.
Abs ensures the momentum factor is always positive.
🔶 3. Adaptive ATR Calculation
The Adaptive ATR (AATR) adjusts the traditional ATR based on the Momentum Factor, making it more responsive during volatile periods and smoother during consolidation.
Short_ATR = SMA(True Range, short_period)
Long_ATR = SMA(True Range, long_period)
Adaptive_ATR = /
Where:
SMA is the Simple Moving Average.
short_period and long_period are user-defined inputs (defaults are 3 and 7, respectively).
🔶 4. Trend Strength Calculation
The strategy quantifies the strength of the trend to filter out weak signals.
Price_Change = Close - Close
ATR_Multiple = Price_Change / Adaptive_ATR (if Adaptive_ATR ≠ 0)
Trend_Strength = SMA(ATR_Multiple, n)
🔶 5. Trend Signal Determination
If (Short_MA > Long_MA) AND (Trend_Strength > Trend_Strength_Threshold):
Trend_Signal = 1 (Strong Uptrend)
Elif (Short_MA < Long_MA) AND (Trend_Strength < -Trend_Strength_Threshold):
Trend_Signal = -1 (Strong Downtrend)
Else:
Trend_Signal = 0 (No Clear Trend)
🔶 6. Trend Confirmation with Price Action
Adaptive_ATR_SMA = SMA(Adaptive_ATR, atr_sma_period)
If (Trend_Signal == 1) AND (Close > Short_MA) AND (Adaptive_ATR > Adaptive_ATR_SMA):
Trend_Confirmed = True
Elif (Trend_Signal == -1) AND (Close < Short_MA) AND (Adaptive_ATR > Adaptive_ATR_SMA):
Trend_Confirmed = True
Else:
Trend_Confirmed = False
Local Performance
🔶 7. Multi-Step Take-Profit Mechanism
The strategy employs a 7-step take-profit system
█ Trade Direction
The SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy is designed to work in both long and short market conditions. By identifying strong uptrends and downtrends, it allows traders to capitalize on price movements in either direction.
Long Trades: Initiated when the market shows strong upward momentum and the trend is confirmed.
Short Trades: Initiated when the market exhibits strong downward momentum and the trend is confirmed.
█ Usage
To implement the SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy:
1. Configure the Strategy Parameters:
- Adjust the short_period, long_period, and momentum_period to match the desired sensitivity.
- Set the trend_strength_threshold to control how strong a trend must be before acting.
2. Set Up the Multi-Step Take-Profit Levels:
- Define ATR multipliers and fixed percentage levels according to risk tolerance and profit goals.
- Specify the percentage of the position to close at each level.
3. Apply the Strategy to a Chart:
- Use the strategy on instruments and timeframes where it has been tested and optimized.
- Monitor the positions and adjust parameters as needed based on performance.
4. Backtest and Optimize:
- Utilize TradingView's backtesting features to evaluate historical performance.
- Adjust the default settings to optimize for different market conditions.
█ Default Settings
Understanding default settings is crucial for optimal performance.
Short Period (3): Affects the responsiveness of the short-term MA.
Effect: Lower values increase sensitivity but may produce more false signals.
Long Period (7): Determines the trend baseline.
Effect: Higher values reduce noise but may delay signals.
Momentum Period (7): Influences adaptive ATR and trend strength.
Effect: Shorter periods react quicker to price changes.
Trend Strength Threshold (0.5): Filters out weaker trends.
Effect: Higher thresholds yield fewer but stronger signals.
ATR Multipliers: Set distances for ATR-based exits.
Effect: Larger multipliers aim for bigger moves but may reduce hit rate.
Fixed TP Levels (%): Control profit-taking on smaller moves.
Effect: Adjusting these levels affects how quickly profits are realized.
Exit Percentages: Determine how much of the position is closed at each TP level.
Effect: Higher percentages reduce exposure faster, affecting risk and reward.
Adjusting these variables allows you to tailor the strategy to different market conditions and personal risk preferences.
By integrating adaptive indicators and a multi-tiered exit strategy, the SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy offers a versatile tool for traders seeking to navigate varying market conditions effectively. Understanding and adjusting the key parameters enables traders to harness the full potential of this strategy.
Savitzky-Golay Z-Score [BackQuant]Savitzky-Golay Z-Score
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score is a powerful trading indicator that combines the precision of the Savitzky-Golay filter with the statistical strength of the Z-Score. This advanced indicator is designed to detect trend shifts, identify overbought or oversold conditions, and highlight potential divergences in the market, providing traders with a unique edge in detecting momentum changes and trend reversals.
Core Concept: Savitzky-Golay Filter
The Savitzky-Golay filter is a widely-used smoothing technique that preserves important signal features such as peak detection while filtering out noise. In this indicator, the filter is applied to price data (default set to HLC3) to smooth out volatility and produce a cleaner trend line. By specifying the window size and polynomial degree, traders can fine-tune the degree of smoothing to match their preferred trading style or market conditions.
Z-Score: Measuring Deviation
The Z-Score is a statistical measure that indicates how far the current price is from its mean in terms of standard deviations. In trading, the Z-Score can be used to identify extreme price moves that are likely to revert or continue trending. A positive Z-Score means the price is above the mean, while a negative Z-Score indicates the price is below the mean.
This script calculates the Z-Score based on the Savitzky-Golay filtered price, enabling traders to detect moments when the price is diverging from its typical range and may present an opportunity for a trade.
Long and Short Conditions
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score generates clear long and short signals based on the Z-Score value:
Long Signals : When the Z-Score is positive, indicating the price is above its smoothed mean, a long signal is generated. The color of the bars turns green, signaling upward momentum.
Short Signals : When the Z-Score is negative, indicating the price is below its smoothed mean, a short signal is generated. The bars turn red, signaling downward momentum.
These signals allow traders to follow the prevailing trend with confidence, using statistical backing to avoid false signals from short-term volatility.
Standard Deviation Levels and Extreme Levels
This indicator includes several features to help visualize overbought and oversold conditions:
Standard Deviation Levels: The script plots horizontal lines at +1, +2, -1, and -2 standard deviations. These levels provide a reference for how far the current price is from the mean, allowing traders to quickly identify when the price is moving into extreme territory.
Extreme Levels: Additional extreme levels at +3 and +4 (and their negative counterparts) are plotted to highlight areas where the price is highly likely to revert. These extreme levels provide important insight into market conditions that are far outside the norm, signaling caution or potential reversal zones.
The indicator also adapts the color shading of these extreme zones based on the Z-Score’s strength. For example, the area between +3 and +4 is shaded with a stronger color when the Z-Score approaches these values, giving a visual representation of market pressure.
Divergences: Detecting Hidden and Regular Signals
A key feature of the Savitzky-Golay Z-Score is its ability to detect bullish and bearish divergences, both regular and hidden:
Regular Bullish Divergence: This occurs when the price makes a lower low while the Z-Score forms a higher low. It signals that bearish momentum is weakening, and a bullish reversal could be near.
Hidden Bullish Divergence: This divergence occurs when the price makes a higher low while the Z-Score forms a lower low. It signals that bullish momentum may continue after a temporary pullback.
Regular Bearish Divergence: This occurs when the price makes a higher high while the Z-Score forms a lower high, signaling that bullish momentum is weakening and a bearish reversal may be near.
Hidden Bearish Divergence: This divergence occurs when the price makes a lower high while the Z-Score forms a higher high, indicating that bearish momentum may continue after a temporary rally.
These divergences are plotted directly on the chart, making it easier for traders to spot when the price and momentum are out of sync and when a potential reversal may occur.
Customization and Visualization
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score offers a range of customization options to fit different trading styles:
Window Size and Polynomial Degree: Adjust the window size and polynomial degree of the Savitzky-Golay filter to control how much smoothing is applied to the price data.
Z-Score Lookback Period: Set the lookback period for calculating the Z-Score, allowing traders to fine-tune the sensitivity to short-term or long-term price movements.
Display Options: Choose whether to display standard deviation levels, extreme levels, and divergence labels on the chart.
Bar Color: Color the price bars based on trend direction, with green for bullish trends and red for bearish trends, allowing traders to easily visualize the current momentum.
Divergences: Enable or disable divergence detection, and adjust the lookback periods for pivots used to detect regular and hidden divergences.
Alerts and Automation
To ensure you never miss an important signal, the indicator includes built-in alert conditions for the following events:
Positive Z-Score (Long Signal): Triggers an alert when the Z-Score crosses above zero, indicating a potential buying opportunity.
Negative Z-Score (Short Signal): Triggers an alert when the Z-Score crosses below zero, signaling a potential short opportunity.
Shifting Momentum: Alerts when the Z-Score is shifting up or down, providing early warning of changing market conditions.
These alerts can be configured to notify you via email, SMS, or app notification, allowing you to stay on top of the market without having to constantly monitor the chart.
Trading Applications
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score is a versatile tool that can be applied across multiple trading strategies:
Trend Following: By smoothing the price and calculating the Z-Score, this indicator helps traders follow the prevailing trend while avoiding false signals from short-term volatility.
Mean Reversion: The Z-Score highlights moments when the price is far from its mean, helping traders identify overbought or oversold conditions and capitalize on potential reversals.
Divergence Trading: Regular and hidden divergences between the Z-Score and price provide early warning of trend reversals, allowing traders to enter trades at opportune moments.
Final Thoughts
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score is an advanced statistical tool designed to provide a clearer view of market trends and momentum. By applying the Savitzky-Golay filter and Z-Score analysis, this indicator reduces noise and highlights key areas where the market may reverse or accelerate, giving traders a significant edge in understanding price behavior.
Whether you’re a trend follower or a reversal trader, this indicator offers the flexibility and insights you need to navigate complex markets with confidence.
Memecoin TrackerMemecoin Z-Score Tracker with Buy/Sell Table - Technical Explanation
How it Works:
This indicator calculates the Z-scores of various memecoins based on their price movements, using historical funding rates across multiple exchanges. A Z-score measures the deviation of the current price from its moving average, expressed in standard deviations. This provides insight into whether a coin is overbought (positive Z-score) or oversold (negative Z-score) relative to its recent history.
Key Components:
- Z-Score Calculation
- The lookback period is dynamically adjusted based on the chart’s timeframe to ensure consistency across different time intervals:
- For lower timeframes (e.g., minutes), the base lookback period is scaled to match approximately 240 minutes.
- For daily and higher timeframes, the base lookback period is fixed (e.g., 14 bars).
Memecoin Selection:
The indicator tracks several popular memecoins, including DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, FLOKI, and others.
Funding rates are fetched from exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and MEXC using the request.security() function, ensuring accurate real-time price data.
Thresholds for Buy/Sell Signals:
Users can set custom Z-score thresholds for buy (oversold) and sell (overbought) signals:
Default upper threshold: 2.5 (indicates overbought condition).
Default lower threshold: -2.5 (indicates oversold condition).
When a memecoin’s Z-score crosses above or below these thresholds, it signals potential buy or sell conditions.
Buy/Sell Table:
A table with two columns (BUY and SELL) is dynamically populated with memecoins that are currently oversold (buy signal) or overbought (sell signal).
Each column can hold up to 20 entries, providing a clear overview of current market opportunities.
Visual Feedback:
The Z-scores of each memecoin are plotted as a line on the chart, with color-coded feedback:
Red for overbought (Z-score > upper threshold),
Green for oversold (Z-score < lower threshold),
Other colors indicate neutral conditions.
Horizontal lines representing the upper and lower thresholds are plotted for reference.
How to Use It:
Adjust Thresholds:
You can modify the upper and lower Z-score thresholds in the settings to customize sensitivity. Lower thresholds will increase the likelihood of triggering buy/sell signals for smaller price deviations, while higher thresholds will focus on more extreme conditions.
View Real-Time Signals:
The table shows which memecoins are currently oversold (buy column) or overbought (sell column), updating dynamically as price data changes. Traders can monitor this table to identify trading opportunities quickly.
Use with Different Timeframes:
The Z-score lookback period adjusts automatically based on the chart's timeframe, making this indicator suitable for intraday and long-term traders.
Use shorter timeframes (e.g., 1-minute, 5-minute charts) for faster signals, while longer timeframes (e.g., daily, weekly) may yield more stable, trend-based signals.
Who It Is For:
Short-Term Traders: Those looking to capitalize on short-term price imbalances (e.g., day traders, scalpers) can use this indicator to identify quick buy/sell opportunities as memecoins oscillate around their moving averages.
Swing Traders: Swing traders can use the Z-score tracker to identify overbought or oversold conditions across multiple memecoins and ride the reversals back toward equilibrium.
Crypto Enthusiasts and Memecoin Investors: Anyone involved in the volatile memecoin market can use this tool to better time entries and exits based on market extremes.
This indicator is for traders seeking quantitative analysis of price extremes in memecoins. By tracking the Z-scores across multiple coins and dynamically updating buy/sell opportunities in a table, it provides a systematic approach to identifying trade setups.
Outlier changes alertAn indicator that calculates click (price change), percentage change, and Z-score changes while displaying outliers based on defined ranges.
Outlier Detection:
Mark outliers (for price, percentage, Z-score) based on user-defined thresholds. For example, any price movement exceeding a certain Z-score or percentage change could be marked as an outlier and displayed on chart.
Indicator Overview:
1. Click (Price Change):
Calculate the absolute price change from one period to another (e.g., from the current closing price to the previous closing price).
2. Percentage Change:
Calculate the percentage price change over a specific period, showing how much the price has changed in relative terms compared to the previous price.
3. Z-Score:
Compute the Z-score to standardize the price change relative to its historical average and standard deviation. The Z-score helps in detecting whether a price movement is an outlier or falls within a normal range of volatility.
HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator by Erika BarkerThis indicator is a modified version of SteverSteves's original work, enhanced by Erika Barker. It visually represents asset price movements in terms of standard deviations from a Hull Moving Average (HMA), commonly known as a Z-Score.
Key Features:
Z-Score Calculation: Measures how many standard deviations the current price is from its HMA.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): This moving average provides a more responsive baseline for Z-Score calculations.
Flexible Display: Offers both area and candlestick visualization options for the Z-Score.
Probability Zones: Color-coded areas showing the statistical likelihood of prices based on their Z-Score.
Dynamic Price Level Labels: Displays actual price levels corresponding to Z-Score values.
Z-Table: An optional table showing the probability of occurrence for different Z-Score ranges.
Standard Deviation Lines: Horizontal lines at each standard deviation level for easy reference.
How It Works:
The indicator calculates the Z-Score by comparing the current price to its HMA and dividing by the standard deviation. This Z-Score is then plotted on a separate pane below the main chart.
Green areas/candles: Indicate prices above the HMA (positive Z-Score)
Red areas/candles: Indicate prices below the HMA (negative Z-Score)
Color-coded zones:
Green: Within 1 standard deviation (high probability)
Yellow: Between 1 and 2 standard deviations (medium probability)
Red: Beyond 2 standard deviations (low probability)
The HMA line (white) shows the trend of the Z-Score itself, offering insight into whether the asset is becoming more or less volatile over time.
Customization Options:
Adjust lookback periods for Z-Score and HMA calculations
Toggle between area and candlestick display
Show/hide probability fills, Z-Table, HMA line, and standard deviation bands
Customize text color and decimal rounding for price levels
Interpretation:
This indicator helps traders identify potential overbought or oversold conditions based on statistical probabilities. Extreme Z-Score values (beyond ±2 or ±3) often suggest a higher likelihood of mean reversion, while consistent Z-Scores in one direction may indicate a strong trend.
By combining the Z-Score with the HMA and probability zones, traders can gain a nuanced understanding of price movements relative to recent trends and their statistical significance.
Advanced Keltner Channel/Oscillator [MyTradingCoder]This indicator combines a traditional Keltner Channel overlay with an oscillator, providing a comprehensive view of price action, trend, and momentum. The core of this indicator is its advanced ATR calculation, which uses statistical methods to provide a more robust measure of volatility.
Starting with the overlay component, the center line is created using a biquad low-pass filter applied to the chosen price source. This provides a smoother representation of price than a simple moving average. The upper and lower channel lines are then calculated using the statistically derived ATR, with an additional set of mid-lines between the center and outer lines. This creates a more nuanced view of price action within the channel.
The color coding of the center line provides an immediate visual cue of the current price momentum. As the price moves up relative to the ATR, the line shifts towards the bullish color, and vice versa for downward moves. This color gradient allows for quick assessment of the current market sentiment.
The oscillator component transforms the channel into a different perspective. It takes the price's position within the channel and maps it to either a normalized -100 to +100 scale or displays it in price units, depending on your settings. This oscillator essentially shows where the current price is in relation to the channel boundaries.
The oscillator includes two key lines: the main oscillator line and a signal line. The main line represents the current position within the channel, smoothed by an exponential moving average (EMA). The signal line is a further smoothed version of the oscillator line. The interaction between these two lines can provide trading signals, similar to how MACD is often used.
When the oscillator line crosses above the signal line, it might indicate bullish momentum, especially if this occurs in the lower half of the oscillator range. Conversely, the oscillator line crossing below the signal line could signal bearish momentum, particularly if it happens in the upper half of the range.
The oscillator's position relative to its own range is also informative. Values near the top of the range (close to 100 if normalized) suggest that price is near the upper Keltner Channel band, indicating potential overbought conditions. Values near the bottom of the range (close to -100 if normalized) suggest proximity to the lower band, potentially indicating oversold conditions.
One of the strengths of this indicator is how the overlay and oscillator work together. For example, if the price is touching the upper band on the overlay, you'd see the oscillator at or near its maximum value. This confluence of signals can provide stronger evidence of overbought conditions. Similarly, the oscillator hitting extremes can draw your attention to price action at the channel boundaries on the overlay.
The mid-lines on both the overlay and oscillator provide additional nuance. On the overlay, price action between the mid-line and outer line might suggest strong but not extreme momentum. On the oscillator, this would correspond to readings in the outer quartiles of the range.
The customizable visual settings allow you to adjust the indicator to your preferences. The glow effects and color coding can make it easier to quickly interpret the current market conditions at a glance.
Overlay Component:
The overlay displays Keltner Channel bands dynamically adapting to market conditions, providing clear visual cues for potential trend reversals, breakouts, and overbought/oversold zones.
The center line is a biquad low-pass filter applied to the chosen price source.
Upper and lower channel lines are calculated using a statistically derived ATR.
Includes mid-lines between the center and outer channel lines.
Color-coded based on price movement relative to the ATR.
Oscillator Component:
The oscillator component complements the overlay, highlighting momentum and potential turning points.
Normalized values make it easy to compare across different assets and timeframes.
Signal line crossovers generate potential buy/sell signals.
Advanced ATR Calculation:
Uses a unique method to compute ATR, incorporating concepts like root mean square (RMS) and z-score clamping.
Provides both an average and mode-based ATR value.
Customizable Visual Settings:
Adjustable colors for bullish and bearish moves, oscillator lines, and channel components.
Options for line width, transparency, and glow effects.
Ability to display overlay, oscillator, or both simultaneously.
Flexible Parameters:
Customizable inputs for channel width multiplier, ATR period, smoothing factors, and oscillator settings.
Adjustable Q factor for the biquad filter.
Key Advantages:
Advanced ATR Calculation: Utilizes a statistical method to generate ATR, ensuring greater responsiveness and accuracy in volatile markets.
Overlay and Oscillator: Provides a comprehensive view of price action, combining trend and momentum analysis.
Customizable: Adjust settings to fine-tune the indicator to your specific needs and trading style.
Visually Appealing: Clear and concise design for easy interpretation.
The ATR (Average True Range) in this indicator is derived using a sophisticated statistical method that differs from the traditional ATR calculation. It begins by calculating the True Range (TR) as the difference between the high and low of each bar. Instead of a simple moving average, it computes the Root Mean Square (RMS) of the TR over the specified period, giving more weight to larger price movements. The indicator then calculates a Z-score by dividing the TR by the RMS, which standardizes the TR relative to recent volatility. This Z-score is clamped to a maximum value (10 in this case) to prevent extreme outliers from skewing the results, and then rounded to a specified number of decimal places (2 in this script).
These rounded Z-scores are collected in an array, keeping track of how many times each value occurs. From this array, two key values are derived: the mode, which is the most frequently occurring Z-score, and the average, which is the weighted average of all Z-scores. These values are then scaled back to price units by multiplying by the RMS.
Now, let's examine how these values are used in the indicator. For the Keltner Channel lines, the mid lines (top and bottom) use the mode of the ATR, representing the most common volatility state. The max lines (top and bottom) use the average of the ATR, incorporating all volatility states, including less common but larger moves. By using the mode for the mid lines and the average for the max lines, the indicator provides a nuanced view of volatility. The mid lines represent the "typical" market state, while the max lines account for less frequent but significant price movements.
For the color coding of the center line, the mode of the ATR is used to normalize the price movement. The script calculates the difference between the current price and the price 'degree' bars ago (default is 2), and then divides this difference by the mode of the ATR. The resulting value is passed through an arctangent function and scaled to a 0-1 range. This scaled value is used to create a color gradient between the bearish and bullish colors.
Using the mode of the ATR for this color coding ensures that the color changes are based on the most typical volatility state of the market. This means that the color will change more quickly in low volatility environments and more slowly in high volatility environments, providing a consistent visual representation of price momentum relative to current market conditions.
Using a good IIR (Infinite Impulse Response) low-pass filter, such as the biquad filter implemented in this indicator, offers significant advantages over simpler moving averages like the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) or other basic moving averages.
At its core, an EMA is indeed a simple, single-pole IIR filter, but it has limitations in terms of its frequency response and phase delay characteristics. The biquad filter, on the other hand, is a two-pole, two-zero filter that provides superior control over the frequency response curve. This allows for a much sharper cutoff between the passband and stopband, meaning it can more effectively separate the signal (in this case, the underlying price trend) from the noise (short-term price fluctuations).
The improved frequency response of a well-designed biquad filter means it can achieve a better balance between smoothness and responsiveness. While an EMA might need a longer period to sufficiently smooth out price noise, potentially leading to more lag, a biquad filter can achieve similar or better smoothing with less lag. This is crucial in financial markets where timely information is vital for making trading decisions.
Moreover, the biquad filter allows for independent control of the cutoff frequency and the Q factor. The Q factor, in particular, is a powerful parameter that affects the filter's resonance at the cutoff frequency. By adjusting the Q factor, users can fine-tune the filter's behavior to suit different market conditions or trading styles. This level of control is simply not available with basic moving averages.
Another advantage of the biquad filter is its superior phase response. In the context of financial data, this translates to more consistent lag across different frequency components of the price action. This can lead to more reliable signals, especially when it comes to identifying trend changes or price reversals.
The computational efficiency of biquad filters is also worth noting. Despite their more complex mathematical foundation, biquad filters can be implemented very efficiently, often requiring only a few operations per sample. This makes them suitable for real-time applications and high-frequency trading scenarios.
Furthermore, the use of a more sophisticated filter like the biquad can help in reducing false signals. The improved noise rejection capabilities mean that minor price fluctuations are less likely to cause unnecessary crossovers or indicator movements, potentially leading to fewer false breakouts or reversal signals.
In the specific context of a Keltner Channel, using a biquad filter for the center line can provide a more stable and reliable basis for the entire indicator. It can help in better defining the overall trend, which is crucial since the Keltner Channel is often used for trend-following strategies. The smoother, yet more responsive center line can lead to more accurate channel boundaries, potentially improving the reliability of overbought/oversold signals and breakout indications.
In conclusion, this advanced Keltner Channel indicator represents a significant evolution in technical analysis tools, combining the power of traditional Keltner Channels with modern statistical methods and signal processing techniques. By integrating a sophisticated ATR calculation, a biquad low-pass filter, and a complementary oscillator component, this indicator offers traders a comprehensive and nuanced view of market dynamics.
The indicator's strength lies in its ability to adapt to varying market conditions, providing clear visual cues for trend identification, momentum assessment, and potential reversal points. The use of statistically derived ATR values for channel construction and the implementation of a biquad filter for the center line result in a more responsive and accurate representation of price action compared to traditional methods.
Furthermore, the dual nature of this indicator – functioning as both an overlay and an oscillator – allows traders to simultaneously analyze price trends and momentum from different perspectives. This multifaceted approach can lead to more informed decision-making and potentially more reliable trading signals.
The high degree of customization available in the indicator's settings enables traders to fine-tune its performance to suit their specific trading styles and market preferences. From adjustable visual elements to flexible parameter inputs, users can optimize the indicator for various trading scenarios and time frames.
Ultimately, while no indicator can predict market movements with certainty, this advanced Keltner Channel provides traders with a powerful tool for market analysis. By offering a more sophisticated approach to measuring volatility, trend, and momentum, it equips traders with valuable insights to navigate the complex world of financial markets. As with any trading tool, it should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and within a well-defined risk management framework to maximize its potential benefits.
Composite Z-Score with Linear Regression Bands [UAlgo]The Composite Z-Score with Linear Regression Bands is a technical indicator designed to provide traders with a comprehensive analysis of price momentum, volatility, and volume. By combining multiple moving averages with slope analysis, volume/volatility compression-expansion metrics, and Z-Score calculations, this indicator aims to highlight potential breakout and breakdown points with high accuracy. The inclusion of linear regression bands further enhances the analysis by providing dynamic support and resistance levels, which adapt to market conditions. This makes the indicator particularly useful in identifying overbought/oversold conditions, volume squeezes, and the overall direction of the trend.
🔶 Key Features
Multi-Length Slope Calculation: The indicator uses multiple Hull Moving Averages (HMA) across various lengths to calculate slope angles, which are then converted into Z-Scores. This helps in capturing both short-term and long-term price momentum.
Volume/Volatility Composite Analysis: By calculating a composite value derived from both volume and volatility, the indicator identifies periods of compression (squeezes) and expansion, which are crucial for detecting potential breakout opportunities.
Linear Regression Bands: The inclusion of dynamic linear regression bands provides traders with adaptive support and resistance levels. These bands are enhanced by the composite value, which adjusts the band width based on market conditions, offering a clearer view of possible price reversals.
Overbought/Oversold Detection: The indicator highlights overbought and oversold conditions by comparing Z-Scores against the upper and lower bounds of the regression bands, which can signal potential reversal points.
Customizable Inputs: Users can customize key parameters such as the lengths of the moving averages, the regression band period, and the number of deviations used for the bands, allowing for flexibility in adapting the indicator to different market environments.
🔶 Interpreting the Indicator
Z-Score Plots: The individual Z-Score plots represent the normalized slope of the Hull Moving Averages over different periods. Positive values indicate upward momentum, while negative values suggest downward momentum. The combined Z-Sum provides a broader view of the overall market momentum.
Composite Value: The composite value is a ratio of volume to volatility, which highlights periods of market compression and expansion. When the composite value rises, it suggests increasing market activity, often preceding a breakout.
Why are we calculating values for multiple lengths?
The Composite Z-Score with Linear Regression Bands indicator employs a multi-timeframe analysis by calculating Z-scores for various moving average lengths. This approach provides a more comprehensive view of market dynamics and helps to identify trends and potential reversals across different timeframes. By considering multiple lengths, we can:
Capture a broader range of market behaviors: Different moving average lengths capture different aspects of price movement. Shorter lengths are more sensitive to recent price changes, while longer lengths provide a smoother representation of the underlying trend.
Reduce the impact of noise: By combining Z-scores from multiple lengths, we can help to filter out some of the noise that can be present in shorter-term data and obtain a more robust signal.
Enhance the reliability of signals: When Z-scores from multiple lengths align, it can increase the confidence in the identified trend or potential reversal. This can help to reduce the likelihood of false signals.
In essence, calculating values for multiple lengths allows the indicator to provide a more nuanced and reliable assessment of market conditions, making it a valuable tool for traders and analysts.
Linear Regression Bands: The central line represents the linear regression of the Z-Sum, while the upper and lower bands represent the dynamic resistance and support levels, respectively. The deviation from the regression line indicates the strength of the current trend. When price moves beyond these bands, it may signal an overbought (above upper band) or oversold (below lower band) condition.
Volume/Volatility Squeeze: When the price moves between the regression bands and the volume/volatility-adjusted bands, the market is in a squeeze. Breakouts from this squeeze can lead to significant price moves, which are indicated by the filling of areas between the Z-Score plots and the bands.
Color Interpretation: The indicator uses color changes to make it easier to interpret the data. Teal colors generally indicate upward momentum or strong conditions, while red suggests downward momentum or weakening conditions. The intensity of the color reflects the strength of the signal.
Overbought/Oversold Signals: The indicator marks potential overbought and oversold conditions when Z-Scores cross above or below the upper and lower regression bands, respectively. These signals are crucial for identifying potential reversal points in the market.
🔶 Disclaimer
Use with Caution: This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Users should exercise caution and perform their own analysis before making trading decisions based on the indicator's signals.
Not Financial Advice: The information provided by this indicator does not constitute financial advice, and the creator (UAlgo) shall not be held responsible for any trading losses incurred as a result of using this indicator.
Backtesting Recommended: Traders are encouraged to backtest the indicator thoroughly on historical data before using it in live trading to assess its performance and suitability for their trading strategies.
Risk Management: Trading involves inherent risks, and users should implement proper risk management strategies, including but not limited to stop-loss orders and position sizing, to mitigate potential losses.
No Guarantees: The accuracy and reliability of the indicator's signals cannot be guaranteed, as they are based on historical price data and past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Vwap Z-Score with Signals [UAlgo]The "VWAP Z-Score with Signals " is a technical analysis tool designed to help traders identify potential buy and sell signals based on the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and its Z-Score. This indicator calculates the VWAP Z-Score to show how far the current price deviates from the VWAP in terms of standard deviations. It highlights overbought and oversold conditions with visual signals, aiding in the identification of potential market reversals. The tool is customizable, allowing users to adjust parameters for their specific trading needs.
🔶 Features
VWAP Z-Score Calculation: Measures the deviation of the current price from the VWAP using standard deviations.
Customizable Parameters: Allows users to set the length of the VWAP Z-Score calculation and define thresholds for overbought and oversold levels.
Reversal Signals: Provides visual signals when the Z-Score crosses the specified thresholds, indicating potential buy or sell opportunities.
🔶 Usage
Extreme Z-Score values (both positive and negative) highlight significant deviations from the VWAP, useful for identifying potential reversal points.
The indicator provides visual signals when the Z-Score crosses predefined thresholds:
A buy signal (🔼) appears when the Z-Score crosses above the lower threshold, suggesting the price may be oversold and a potential upward reversal.
A sell signal (🔽) appears when the Z-Score crosses below the upper threshold, suggesting the price may be overbought and a potential downward reversal.
These signals can help you identify potential entry and exit points in your trading strategy.
🔶 Disclaimer
The "VWAP Z-Score with Signals " indicator is designed for educational purposes and to assist traders in their technical analysis. It does not guarantee profitable trades and should not be considered as financial advice.
Users should conduct their own research and use this indicator in conjunction with other tools and strategies.
Trading involves significant risk, and it is possible to lose more than your initial investment.
BTC Valuation
The BTC Valuation indicator
is a powerful tool designed to assist traders and analysts in evaluating the current state of Bitcoin's market valuation. By leveraging key moving averages and a logarithmic trendline, this indicator offers valuable insights into potential buying or selling opportunities based on historical price value.
Key Features:
200MA/P (200-day Moving Average to Price Ratio):
Provides a perspective on Bitcoin's long-term trend by comparing the current price to its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
A positive value suggests potential undervaluation, while a negative value may indicate overvaluation.
50MA/P (50-day Moving Average to Price Ratio):
Focuses on short-term trends, offering insights into the relationship between Bitcoin's current price and its 50-day SMA.
Helps traders identify potential bullish or bearish trends in the near term.
LTL/P (Logarithmic TrendLine to Price Ratio):
Incorporates a logarithmic trendline, considering Bitcoin's historical age in days.
Assists in evaluating whether the current price aligns with the long-term logarithmic trend, signaling potential overvaluation or undervaluation.
How to Use:
Z Score Indicator Integration:
The BTC Valuation indicator leverages the Z Score Indicator to score the ratios in a statistical way.
Statistical scoring provides a standardized measure of how far each ratio deviates from the mean, aiding in a more nuanced and objective evaluation.
Z Score Indicator
This BTC Valuation indicator provides a comprehensive view of Bitcoin's valuation dynamics, allowing traders to make informed decisions.
While indicators like BTC Valuation provide valuable insights, it's crucial to remember that no indicator guarantees market predictions.
Traders should use indicators as part of a comprehensive strategy and consider multiple factors before making trading decisions.
Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Exercise caution and continually refine your approach based on market dynamics.
Adaptive Fisherized Z-scoreHello Fellas,
It's time for a new adaptive fisherized indicator of me, where I apply adaptive length and more on a classic indicator.
Today, I chose the Z-score, also called standard score, as indicator of interest.
Special Features
Advanced Smoothing: JMA, T3, Hann Window and Super Smoother
Adaptive Length Algorithms: In-Phase Quadrature, Homodyne Discriminator, Median and Hilbert Transform
Inverse Fisher Transform (IFT)
Signals: Enter Long, Enter Short, Exit Long and Exit Short
Bar Coloring: Presents the trade state as bar colors
Band Levels: Changes the band levels
Decision Making
When you create such a mod you need to think about which concepts are the best to conclude. I decided to take Inverse Fisher Transform instead of normalization to make a version which fits to a fixed scale to avoid the usual distortion created by normalization.
Moreover, I chose JMA, T3, Hann Window and Super Smoother, because JMA and T3 are the bleeding-edge MA's at the moment with the best balance of lag and responsiveness. Additionally, I chose Hann Window and Super Smoother because of their extraordinary smoothing capabilities and because Ehlers favours them.
Furthermore, I decided to choose the half length of the dominant cycle instead of the full dominant cycle to make the indicator more responsive which is very important for a signal emitter like Z-score. Signal emitters always need to be faster or have the same speed as the filters they are combined with.
Usage
The Z-score is a low timeframe scalper which works best during choppy/ranging phases. The direction you should trade is determined by the last trend change. E.g. when the last trend change was from bearish market to bullish market and you are now in a choppy/ranging phase confirmed by e.g. Chop Zone or KAMA slope you want to do long trades.
Interpretation
The Z-score indicator is a momentum indicator which shows the number of standard deviations by which the value of a raw score (price/source) is above or below the mean value of what is being observed or measured. Easily explained, it is almost the same as Bollinger Bands with another visual representation form.
Signals
B -> Buy -> Z-score crosses above lower band
S -> Short -> Z-score crosses below upper band
BE -> Buy Exit -> Z-score crosses above 0
SE -> Sell Exit -> Z-score crosses below 0
If you were reading till here, thank you already. Now, follows a bunch of knowledge for people who don't know the concepts I talk about.
T3
The T3 moving average, short for "Tim Tillson's Triple Exponential Moving Average," is a technical indicator used in financial markets and technical analysis to smooth out price data over a specific period. It was developed by Tim Tillson, a software project manager at Hewlett-Packard, with expertise in Mathematics and Computer Science.
The T3 moving average is an enhancement of the traditional Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and aims to overcome some of its limitations. The primary goal of the T3 moving average is to provide a smoother representation of price trends while minimizing lag compared to other moving averages like Simple Moving Average (SMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), or EMA.
To compute the T3 moving average, it involves a triple smoothing process using exponential moving averages. Here's how it works:
Calculate the first exponential moving average (EMA1) of the price data over a specific period 'n.'
Calculate the second exponential moving average (EMA2) of EMA1 using the same period 'n.'
Calculate the third exponential moving average (EMA3) of EMA2 using the same period 'n.'
The formula for the T3 moving average is as follows:
T3 = 3 * (EMA1) - 3 * (EMA2) + (EMA3)
By applying this triple smoothing process, the T3 moving average is intended to offer reduced noise and improved responsiveness to price trends. It achieves this by incorporating multiple time frames of the exponential moving averages, resulting in a more accurate representation of the underlying price action.
JMA
The Jurik Moving Average (JMA) is a technical indicator used in trading to predict price direction. Developed by Mark Jurik, it’s a type of weighted moving average that gives more weight to recent market data rather than past historical data.
JMA is known for its superior noise elimination. It’s a causal, nonlinear, and adaptive filter, meaning it responds to changes in price action without introducing unnecessary lag. This makes JMA a world-class moving average that tracks and smooths price charts or any market-related time series with surprising agility.
In comparison to other moving averages, such as the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), JMA is known to track fast price movement more accurately. This allows traders to apply their strategies to a more accurate picture of price action.
Inverse Fisher Transform
The Inverse Fisher Transform is a transform used in DSP to alter the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of a signal or in our case of indicators.
The result of using the Inverse Fisher Transform is that the output has a very high probability of being either +1 or –1. This bipolar probability distribution makes the Inverse Fisher Transform ideal for generating an indicator that provides clear buy and sell signals.
Hann Window
The Hann function (aka Hann Window) is named after the Austrian meteorologist Julius von Hann. It is a window function used to perform Hann smoothing.
Super Smoother
The Super Smoother uses a special mathematical process for the smoothing of data points.
The Super Smoother is a technical analysis indicator designed to be smoother and with less lag than a traditional moving average.
Adaptive Length
Length based on the dominant cycle length measured by a "dominant cycle measurement" algorithm.
Happy Trading!
Best regards,
simwai
---
Credits to
@cheatcountry
@everget
@loxx
@DasanC
@blackcat1402
NormalDistributionFunctionsLibrary "NormalDistributionFunctions"
The NormalDistributionFunctions library encompasses a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for financial market analysis. It provides functions to calculate essential statistical measures such as mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis, alongside advanced functionalities for computing the probability density function (PDF), cumulative distribution function (CDF), Z-score, and confidence intervals. This library is designed to assist in the assessment of market volatility, distribution characteristics of asset returns, and risk management calculations, making it an invaluable resource for traders and financial analysts.
meanAndStdDev(source, length)
Calculates and returns the mean and standard deviation for a given data series over a specified period.
Parameters:
source (float) : float: The data series to analyze.
length (int) : int: The lookback period for the calculation.
Returns: Returns an array where the first element is the mean and the second element is the standard deviation of the data series for the given period.
skewness(source, mean, stdDev, length)
Calculates and returns skewness for a given data series over a specified period.
Parameters:
source (float) : float: The data series to analyze.
mean (float) : float: The mean of the distribution.
stdDev (float) : float: The standard deviation of the distribution.
length (int) : int: The lookback period for the calculation.
Returns: Returns skewness value
kurtosis(source, mean, stdDev, length)
Calculates and returns kurtosis for a given data series over a specified period.
Parameters:
source (float) : float: The data series to analyze.
mean (float) : float: The mean of the distribution.
stdDev (float) : float: The standard deviation of the distribution.
length (int) : int: The lookback period for the calculation.
Returns: Returns kurtosis value
pdf(x, mean, stdDev)
pdf: Calculates the probability density function for a given value within a normal distribution.
Parameters:
x (float) : float: The value to evaluate the PDF at.
mean (float) : float: The mean of the distribution.
stdDev (float) : float: The standard deviation of the distribution.
Returns: Returns the probability density function value for x.
cdf(x, mean, stdDev)
cdf: Calculates the cumulative distribution function for a given value within a normal distribution.
Parameters:
x (float) : float: The value to evaluate the CDF at.
mean (float) : float: The mean of the distribution.
stdDev (float) : float: The standard deviation of the distribution.
Returns: Returns the cumulative distribution function value for x.
confidenceInterval(mean, stdDev, size, confidenceLevel)
Calculates the confidence interval for a data series mean.
Parameters:
mean (float) : float: The mean of the data series.
stdDev (float) : float: The standard deviation of the data series.
size (int) : int: The sample size.
confidenceLevel (float) : float: The confidence level (e.g., 0.95 for 95% confidence).
Returns: Returns the lower and upper bounds of the confidence interval.
Crypto MVRV ZScore - Strategy [PresentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Crypto Valuation Extremes: MVRV ZScore - Strategy " represents a cutting-edge approach to cryptocurrency trading, leveraging the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score. This metric is pivotal for identifying overvalued or undervalued conditions in the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin. It assesses the current market valuation against the realized capitalization, providing insights that are not apparent through conventional analysis.
BTCUSD 6h Long/Short Performance
Local
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The strategy leverages the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, specifically designed for cryptocurrencies, with a focus on Bitcoin. This metric is crucial for determining whether Bitcoin is currently undervalued or overvalued compared to its historical 'realized' price. Below is an in-depth explanation of the strategy's components and calculations.
🔶Conceptual Foundation
- Market Capitalization (MC): This represents the total dollar market value of Bitcoin's circulating supply. It is calculated as the current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation.
- Realized Capitalization (RC): Unlike MC, which values all coins at the current market price, RC is computed by valuing each coin at the price it was last moved or traded. Essentially, it is a summation of the value of all bitcoins, priced at the time they were last transacted.
- MVRV Ratio: This ratio is derived by dividing the Market Capitalization by the Realized Capitalization (The ratio of MC to RC (MVRV Ratio = MC / RC)). A ratio greater than 1 indicates that the current price is higher than the average price at which all bitcoins were purchased, suggesting potential overvaluation. Conversely, a ratio below 1 suggests undervaluation.
🔶 MVRV Z-Score Calculation
The Z-Score is a statistical measure that indicates the number of standard deviations an element is from the mean. For this strategy, the MVRV Z-Score is calculated as follows:
MVRV Z-Score = (MC - RC) / Standard Deviation of (MC - RC)
This formula quantifies Bitcoin's deviation from its 'normal' valuation range, offering insights into market sentiment and potential price reversals.
🔶 Spread Z-Score for Trading Signals
The strategy refines this approach by calculating a 'spread Z-Score', which adjusts the MVRV Z-Score over a specific period (default: 252 days). This is done to smooth out short-term market volatility and focus on longer-term valuation trends. The spread Z-Score is calculated as follows:
Spread Z-Score = (Market Z-Score - MVVR Ratio - SMA of Spread) / Standard Deviation of Spread
Where:
- SMA of Spread is the simple moving average of the spread over the specified period.
- Spread refers to the difference between the Market Z-Score and the MVRV Ratio.
🔶 Trading Signals
- Long Entry Condition: A long (buy) signal is generated when the spread Z-Score crosses above the long entry threshold, indicating that Bitcoin is potentially undervalued.
- Short Entry Condition: A short (sell) signal is triggered when the spread Z-Score falls below the short entry threshold, suggesting overvaluation.
These conditions are based on the premise that extreme deviations from the mean (as indicated by the Z-Score) are likely to revert to the mean over time, presenting opportunities for strategic entry and exit points.
█ Practical Application
Traders use these signals to make informed decisions about opening or closing positions in the Bitcoin market. By quantifying market valuation extremes, the strategy aims to capitalize on the cyclical nature of price movements, identifying high-probability entry and exit points based on historical valuation norms.
█ Trade Direction
A unique feature of this strategy is its configurable trade direction. Users can specify their preference for engaging in long positions, short positions, or both. This flexibility allows traders to tailor the strategy according to their risk tolerance, market outlook, or trading style, making it adaptable to various market conditions and trader objectives.
█ Usage
To implement this strategy, traders should first adjust the input parameters to align with their trading preferences and risk management practices. These parameters include the trade direction, Z-Score calculation period, and the thresholds for long and short entries. Once configured, the strategy automatically generates trading signals based on the calculated spread Z-Score, providing clear indications for potential entry and exit points.
It is advisable for traders to backtest the strategy under different market conditions to validate its effectiveness and adjust the settings as necessary. Continuous monitoring and adjustment are crucial, as market dynamics evolve over time.
█ Default Settings
- Trade Direction: Both (Allows for both long and short positions)
- Z-Score Calculation Period: 252 days (Approximately one trading year, capturing a comprehensive market cycle)
- Long Entry Threshold: 0.382 (Indicative of moderate undervaluation)
- Short Entry Threshold: -0.382 (Signifies moderate overvaluation)
These default settings are designed to balance sensitivity to market valuation extremes with a pragmatic approach to trade execution. They aim to filter out noise and focus on significant market movements, providing a solid foundation for both new and experienced traders looking to exploit the unique insights offered by the MVRV Z-Score in the cryptocurrency market.
Crypto Stablecoin Supply - Indicator [presentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Stablecoin Supply - Indicator" differentiates itself by focusing on the aggregate supply of major stablecoins—USDT, USDC, and DAI—rather than traditional price-based metrics. Its premise is that fluctuations in the total supply of these stablecoins can serve as leading indicators for broader market movements, offering traders a unique vantage point to anticipate shifts in market sentiment.
BTCUSD 6h for recent bull market
BTCUSD 8h
█ Strategy, How it Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 Data Collection
The strategy begins with the collection of the closing supply for USDT, USDC, and DAI stablecoins. This data is fetched using a specified timeframe (**`tfInput`**), allowing for flexibility in analysis periods.
🔶 Supply Calculation
The individual supplies of USDT, USDC, and DAI are then aggregated to determine the total stablecoin supply within the market at any given time. This combined figure serves as the foundation for the subsequent statistical analysis.
🔶 Z-Score Computation
The heart of the indicator's strategy lies in the computation of the Z-Score, which is a statistical measure used to identify how far a data point is from the mean, relative to the standard deviation. The formula for the Z-Score is:
Z = (X - μ) / σ
Where:
- Z is the Z-Score
- X is the current total stablecoin supply (TotalStablecoinClose)
- μ (mu) is the mean of the total stablecoin supply over a specified length (len)
- σ (sigma) is the standard deviation of the total stablecoin supply over the same length
A moving average of the Z-Score (**`zScore_ma`**) is calculated over a short period (defaulted to 3) to smooth out the volatility and provide a clearer signal.
🔶 Signal Interpretation
The Z-Score itself is plotted, with its color indicating its relation to a defined threshold (0.382), serving as a direct visual cue for market sentiment. Zones are also highlighted to show when the Z-Score is within certain extreme ranges, suggesting overbought or oversold conditions.
Bull -> Bear
█ Trade Direction
- **Entry Threshold**: A Z-Score crossing above 0.382 suggests an increase in stablecoin supply relative to its historical average, potentially indicating bullish market sentiment or incoming capital flow into cryptocurrencies.
- **Exit Threshold**: Conversely, a Z-Score dropping below -0.382 may signal a reduction in stablecoin supply, hinting at bearish sentiment or capital withdrawal.
█ Usage
Traders can leverage the "Stablecoin Supply - Indicator" to gain insights into the underlying market dynamics that are not immediately apparent through price analysis alone. It is particularly useful for identifying potential shifts in market sentiment before they are reflected in price movements. By integrating this indicator with other technical analysis tools, traders can develop a more rounded and informed trading strategy.
█ Default Settings
- Timeframe Input (`tfInput`): Allows users to specify the timeframe for data collection, adding flexibility to the analysis.
- Z-Score Length (`len`): Set to 252 by default, representing the period over which the mean and standard deviation of the stablecoin supply are calculated.
- Color Coding: Uses distinct colors (green for bullish, red for bearish) to indicate the Z-Score's position relative to its thresholds, enhancing visual clarity.
- Extreme Range Fill: Highlights areas between defined high and low Z-Score thresholds with distinct colors to indicate potential overbought or oversold conditions.
By integrating considerations of stablecoin supply into the analytical framework, the "Stablecoin Supply - Indicator" offers a novel perspective on cryptocurrency market dynamics, enabling traders to make more nuanced and informed decisions.
