A more formal approach to ta ADA/BTC

29 lug 2020

Switching gears here and trying out a new approach in my analysis.

In a nutshell:
Cardano (ADA) had a wonderfull spring and is primed to perform well in the future. Price is up for a correction, any pullback into quarterly support has a moderately high probability to be a bullish retest of previous high timeframe structures according to this analysis.

Evidence #0 - deriving directional bias
On this weekly view we can see that monthly support has held and fuelled pice to break through quarterly resistance which up to this point has not been tested.

Evidence #1 - indication(s) of continuation
The 50 week simple moving average (sma), the aqua coloured line, looks like it has finally bottomed out and is now pointing upwards in an amazingliy bullish manner.
Supports the directional bias? - y

Evidence #2 - indication(s) of continuation
The 21 sma (violett coloured line) and the 100 sma, the green one, have crossed and performed what is a so-called bullish cross-over.
Supports the directional bias? - y

Evidence #3 - indication(s) of continuation
Price broke quarterly resistance and went ballistic. Furthermore, the quarterly resistance has not been visited form the downside, which should happen in order to give bulls the final permission to make it go parabolic.
Supports the directional bias? - y

Evidence #4 - indication(s) of continuation
Very low probability evidence, because the variables gathered for this are highly prognostic, nevertheless we can see that the 50 sma (aqua) and the 100 sma (green) will eventually perform a bullish crossover.
Supports the directional bias? - y

We guess possible scenarios based upon the directional bias (evidence #0) and the feedback of the other evidences (indication of continuation).

Option #1 - possible price action structure (bold line - higher probability)
It is likely that price will start consolidating and eventually break down in order to retest the quarterly level. Any dips below this level are allowed as long as they are bought up, any weakness around that level should make you very cautious, anyway it is crypto - always have to be careful. Testing the quarterly level and refuelling for another leg up would make sense and is one of the most possible outcomes of the near future. Taking the overall bullish indication into account there is also the possibility that it goes parabolic right away, which would make the upcoming correction much more severe.

Option #2 - possible price action structure (light line - lower probability)
If there is any weakness in form of high timeframe candle closes below quarterly support there is a probability that it was just an overextension of price and that we are going back into the old range between the quarterly and monthly levels.

Cheers!