Cardano - Creating a new imbalance [VIP]

15 set 2021

Hello Traders and Analysts,

Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.

A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish, this will be dragged by BTC and ETH correlative movements.

Master Key for zones

• Red = Three Month
  
• Blue = Monthly
  
• Purple = weekly
  
• Scarlet [Red] - Four day
  
• Orange = Daily
  
• Green = 8 Hour, 16hour
  
• Grey = 4hour
  
• Pink = 1 hour
  

Monthly structure
The market is presenting an interesting scenario;
Whereby price has tested the 0.236% Fibonacci - and rejected. However, price can still revert to this level.
I.// Where price retests, and rejects further - look to a buy probability with the imbalance closing out with the equal wick to the previous month, assessing the low reactive point.
II.// If price indicates a reactive level break, add a net sell position to hedge long positions creating an absolute return positive.



Weekly
Weekly Impulse, correction, Impulse waves?
Notice, that price has reverted back upon the first Fibonacci sequence wave from the established "0" to 0.705 upon the structure.
Using the price wave theory as a basic concept - price has made the consolidation one since the initial tail off from the peak back in 2018. Price has provided a gearing process where the imbalance can be closed out in creating the next sequence high using imbalances, and Fibonacci targets for extension targets.

The reversion pivot points are 61-70.5% creating the imbalance confirmation - where price will look to as a position of interest to change hands of sellers to buyers if required.


Taking the theory and applying said wave; shows the possible predictive pathway - reason being, price has a volume increase, propelling a multitude of in-flow into the market capitalisation.
looking to marketcap: - we have seen that Cardano currently amounts to 77.3B in market cap, with a market share of 3.6% as of Septmber 15th 2021.
and the model assumptions taken from the base case and conservative targets, overall - the buyers are ever present, looking at the current supply of 71% of tokens circulating, this enables us to understand where price will move in the future as the supply ever reaches full circulation.

** If you are interested in the model of the market cap - please send a message via tradingview.

The Daily correction, has provided a solid basis for additional opportunities.


Three Day chart
This reduces the noise on the chart and highlights critical aspects of where price closes with 'liquidity wicks' or known as pivot points which lay within an imbalance zone.


The pathway
Whilst BTC and ETH have market dominance, note the importance of the price fluctuations upon these cryptocurrencies, whereby large imbalance moves positive and negative will have a correlative but not a causative reponse.
The idea of having the imbalance at the previous is historical, based upon market structure and explained above.



Using the market Capitalisation
See the weekly chart below in reference to the following;
BTC - White
ETH - Purple
ADA - Light Blue

The correlation upon the three largest crypto's all have a relativity and looking over the charts all have similar imbalances [as expected], Bitcoin being the most dominant, offers the shift in change first, followed by a lag time for ETH and ADA as the chart shows.
Though the products follow different develops within their own space, please note - from a technical aspect the chart still shows a strong factor for clear opportunities to buy, sell based upon price reactive levels - which correlate to the market Cap.


Adding Volume profile with Market capitalisation of buyers, sellers distinguishing where the key volume areas are.


Entry probability, where the reactive level stabilises - upon a confirmation.
The idea will be to look for rejected wicks and capitalise upon the rebound of purchasing volume which will take place at the level of interest.



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LVPA MMXXI