AMD: Big AI Deal, Bigger Expectations — But Caution Near Highs

AMD ripped +37% after announcing a 6 GW GPU supply deal with OpenAI, including a 10% warrant structure tied to performance and stock price.

Yes, the partnership validates AMD as a serious Nvidia rival — but much of that sentiment is already priced in.

Now we enter the quiet phase:

• Revenue from the deal won’t hit until 2H 2026
  
• No near-term earnings catalyst
  
• No immediate follow-through customer (yet)
  

Price is retesting March 2024 highs. A double top may be forming — or just healthy consolidation. Until real revenue shows up or a new win (Meta, AWS, etc.) breaks the news cycle, this may drift or correct.

Treat the March 2024 resistance as key. Eye the April rally leg for a possible pullback zone. High expectations, but execution is everything now.