AMD Oversold But Not Broken: Watch This Level for a Sharp Reversal (Oct. 13)
Friday’s selloff hit AMD hard — the stock dropped nearly 8%, closing around 215, as volatility ripped through the entire semiconductor sector. But despite the pain, there are early signs that AMD may be setting up for an intraday bounce if market fear cools off on Monday.
Let’s break it down from both a 15-minute intraday view and the 1-hour GEX setup, which shows how options positioning could guide AMD’s next move.
15-Minute Intraday Technical View
The 15-minute chart shows a clear downtrend channel, with AMD printing a series of lower highs and lower lows since the breakdown from the 232–234 resistance zone. The most recent candle sequence suggests the sell momentum is finally slowing down — notice how the last few candles consolidated above 213, forming a short-term base.
MACD is still negative but starting to flatten, while Stoch RSI is climbing out of oversold territory near 25–30. That combination signals momentum exhaustion — not yet a reversal, but a warning that sellers might be running out of steam.
The key support zone to watch is 207–213, and this is where buyers are likely to defend early Monday. If AMD holds above this level at the open, there’s potential for a relief move back toward 218–222, which aligns with the descending trendline.
If that resistance breaks intraday with volume, momentum scalpers could target a quick run toward 228–230. However, if AMD rejects at 218 and fails to hold 213, the next flush target is 207, and below that, a deeper slide toward 200 could unfold fast — especially if VIX spikes back above 22.
For intraday traders, the plan is simple: Stay flexible. Go long above 218 with confirmation, and short below 213 only if volatility expands again.
1-Hour GEX Analysis — Options Sentiment
The 1-hour GEX chart gives us a broader view of where the real positioning battle is happening.
The Highest Volatility Line (HVL) sits near 217.5, marking the current inflection zone — exactly where AMD closed Friday. Below that, we can see multiple Put Walls stacking around 205 and 200, creating a strong cluster of downside hedges. This suggests dealers will start selling aggressively if price drops below 207, amplifying volatility.
Above current levels, the Call Walls cluster around 230, 240, and 245, with the strongest resistance near 244, which lines up perfectly with the previous high. That’s the upper ceiling for now — no easy breakout without a broader market shift.
IVR sits at 58.2 and IVX at 69.6, showing volatility remains elevated but not at extremes. Option flow leans slightly bearish (27.9% CALLS vs higher PUT pressure), reflecting trader caution after the massive sector-wide pullback.
From a gamma standpoint, AMD is still in a negative gamma zone under 217. That means price will likely move fast — both up and down — as dealers chase hedges. Once AMD breaks back above 220 and sustains it, volatility could start to compress, giving bulls room to breathe again.
My Thoughts and Trade Ideas
AMD is sitting in a dangerous but attractive zone — a spot where risk/reward finally starts to favor traders who are patient. The 213–207 range is a legitimate support area where smart money might start scaling in.
If volatility cools off Monday and SPY finds footing, AMD could lead the rebound among semiconductors. Scalpers can look for long setups above 218 with tight stops below 213. For options traders, short-term 220C or 225C plays for the week are fine if the market stabilizes. If not, 205P or 200P becomes the defensive hedge to ride the next volatility leg.
The sentiment right now is fragile but ripe for fast moves — AMD is one of those names that reacts instantly to shifts in fear and greed.
Final Take
AMD remains bearish short-term but may be approaching exhaustion. The market’s behavior around 217.5 will decide Monday’s tone — either we see the first meaningful bounce, or volatility takes it down for one more leg to 205.
If VIX stays hot above 21, patience is key. But if the market breathes, AMD could surprise everyone with a sharp rebound.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Friday’s selloff hit AMD hard — the stock dropped nearly 8%, closing around 215, as volatility ripped through the entire semiconductor sector. But despite the pain, there are early signs that AMD may be setting up for an intraday bounce if market fear cools off on Monday.
Let’s break it down from both a 15-minute intraday view and the 1-hour GEX setup, which shows how options positioning could guide AMD’s next move.
15-Minute Intraday Technical View
The 15-minute chart shows a clear downtrend channel, with AMD printing a series of lower highs and lower lows since the breakdown from the 232–234 resistance zone. The most recent candle sequence suggests the sell momentum is finally slowing down — notice how the last few candles consolidated above 213, forming a short-term base.
MACD is still negative but starting to flatten, while Stoch RSI is climbing out of oversold territory near 25–30. That combination signals momentum exhaustion — not yet a reversal, but a warning that sellers might be running out of steam.
The key support zone to watch is 207–213, and this is where buyers are likely to defend early Monday. If AMD holds above this level at the open, there’s potential for a relief move back toward 218–222, which aligns with the descending trendline.
If that resistance breaks intraday with volume, momentum scalpers could target a quick run toward 228–230. However, if AMD rejects at 218 and fails to hold 213, the next flush target is 207, and below that, a deeper slide toward 200 could unfold fast — especially if VIX spikes back above 22.
For intraday traders, the plan is simple: Stay flexible. Go long above 218 with confirmation, and short below 213 only if volatility expands again.
1-Hour GEX Analysis — Options Sentiment
The 1-hour GEX chart gives us a broader view of where the real positioning battle is happening.
The Highest Volatility Line (HVL) sits near 217.5, marking the current inflection zone — exactly where AMD closed Friday. Below that, we can see multiple Put Walls stacking around 205 and 200, creating a strong cluster of downside hedges. This suggests dealers will start selling aggressively if price drops below 207, amplifying volatility.
Above current levels, the Call Walls cluster around 230, 240, and 245, with the strongest resistance near 244, which lines up perfectly with the previous high. That’s the upper ceiling for now — no easy breakout without a broader market shift.
IVR sits at 58.2 and IVX at 69.6, showing volatility remains elevated but not at extremes. Option flow leans slightly bearish (27.9% CALLS vs higher PUT pressure), reflecting trader caution after the massive sector-wide pullback.
From a gamma standpoint, AMD is still in a negative gamma zone under 217. That means price will likely move fast — both up and down — as dealers chase hedges. Once AMD breaks back above 220 and sustains it, volatility could start to compress, giving bulls room to breathe again.
My Thoughts and Trade Ideas
AMD is sitting in a dangerous but attractive zone — a spot where risk/reward finally starts to favor traders who are patient. The 213–207 range is a legitimate support area where smart money might start scaling in.
If volatility cools off Monday and SPY finds footing, AMD could lead the rebound among semiconductors. Scalpers can look for long setups above 218 with tight stops below 213. For options traders, short-term 220C or 225C plays for the week are fine if the market stabilizes. If not, 205P or 200P becomes the defensive hedge to ride the next volatility leg.
The sentiment right now is fragile but ripe for fast moves — AMD is one of those names that reacts instantly to shifts in fear and greed.
Final Take
AMD remains bearish short-term but may be approaching exhaustion. The market’s behavior around 217.5 will decide Monday’s tone — either we see the first meaningful bounce, or volatility takes it down for one more leg to 205.
If VIX stays hot above 21, patience is key. But if the market breathes, AMD could surprise everyone with a sharp rebound.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.