AUDUSD: Bearish Flag Retest Within Macro Headwinds

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AUDUSD is developing a clean bearish technical setup just as macro fundamentals increasingly weigh on the Australian dollar. The pair recently completed a rising wedge breakout and is now retesting broken structure within a larger downtrend. With risk sentiment shaky due to U.S. tariff threats and dovish repricing of the RBA’s outlook, Aussie bulls may struggle to sustain momentum. A confirmed breakdown below 0.6458 could open the door toward June’s swing low near 0.6390.

🧠 Technical Breakdown:
✅ Bearish Flag Structure:
The chart shows a sequence of bearish flags and rising wedges, all of which have historically broken lower. The latest breakout to the downside was sharp, and the current rally appears corrective.

✅ Fib Levels & Confluence:
Price is hovering near the 38.2% retracement (0.6510) from the last leg down. The invalidation zone around 0.6565 aligns with a supply zone, making it an ideal SL area.

✅ Target Zones:

First support: 0.6458

Measured move: 0.6390 - 0.6370
These coincide with Fib 61.8% & 100%, adding technical confluence.

📉 Fundamental Drivers:
Dovish RBA Signals: Labour data missed expectations, and June inflation slowed (4.8% vs. 4.9% expected), softening the RBA’s hawkish stance.

Stronger USD Outlook: Powell’s reappointment risk and rate-cut delay pricing have supported the dollar. U.S. data (Retail Sales, CPI) still signal sticky inflation and strong labor.

Tariff Risk from Trump: With the U.S. floating global 10% tariffs, risk assets like AUD (a high-beta currency) face downside pressure.

⚠️ Risks to Bearish Bias:
Stronger-than-expected China stimulus could support AUD as a proxy.

A dovish Fed pivot or soft U.S. data might undercut USD strength.

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