AVL is starting to look genuinely interesting here. Yes, it’s a small‑cap, highly speculative commodity play, but the structure developing on the chart is hard to ignore.
The current accumulation range shows multiple Phase B rallies, which deviates from the generic Wyckoff schematic most traders are familiar with. Those repeated bumps strongly suggest the Composite Operator was distributing into breakout enthusiasm, while retail money chased the early strength. Once that liquidity was absorbed, price unwound into a clean corrective leg.
That pullback from the May 23 high appears to have completed into the July 25 low, which is now acting as a potential Last Point of Support (LPS). LPS identification is rarely obvious in real time, but there are constructive signs here:
- the descending trendline has been broken
- demand is beginning to show up on the right side of the structure
- the reaction into the LPS held above the prior support shelf
From a technical perspective, this gives traders a valid long setup with risk defined beneath the LPS.
That said, there’s still a realistic scenario where price rejects this area and rotates lower toward the S1 yearly pivot, forming a deeper Spring. For that to unfold, we’d need to see a decisive move down followed by a monthly close back inside the range. If that happens, the following month’s open becomes the high‑probability entry and the risk‑to‑reward expands significantly.
This idea gains further weight when you look at the new yearly pivot structure. When price moves sideways between the yearly pivot and S1, it often tests the nearest pivot first. In this case, the yearly pivot, before driving into S1 and then launching back above the pivot zone. It’s a behaviour almost no one understands, yet AVL is following it cleanly, and it aligns perfectly with the potential Spring scenario.
There’s still plenty to play out, but whether the LPS holds or we get the deeper Spring, the chart is offering some attractive upside targets. These are large TPs, not guarantees — simply the major resistance zones that stand out on the chart.
In short:
LPS may already be in → early long with tight risk.
Spring still possible → deeper test into S1 before the real markup.
Pivot structure supports both paths, with the Spring offering the cleaner confirmation.
Either way, AVL is entering a part of the cycle where the chart finally matters again.
*Please note arrows are not time based just overall price path expected
The current accumulation range shows multiple Phase B rallies, which deviates from the generic Wyckoff schematic most traders are familiar with. Those repeated bumps strongly suggest the Composite Operator was distributing into breakout enthusiasm, while retail money chased the early strength. Once that liquidity was absorbed, price unwound into a clean corrective leg.
That pullback from the May 23 high appears to have completed into the July 25 low, which is now acting as a potential Last Point of Support (LPS). LPS identification is rarely obvious in real time, but there are constructive signs here:
- the descending trendline has been broken
- demand is beginning to show up on the right side of the structure
- the reaction into the LPS held above the prior support shelf
From a technical perspective, this gives traders a valid long setup with risk defined beneath the LPS.
That said, there’s still a realistic scenario where price rejects this area and rotates lower toward the S1 yearly pivot, forming a deeper Spring. For that to unfold, we’d need to see a decisive move down followed by a monthly close back inside the range. If that happens, the following month’s open becomes the high‑probability entry and the risk‑to‑reward expands significantly.
This idea gains further weight when you look at the new yearly pivot structure. When price moves sideways between the yearly pivot and S1, it often tests the nearest pivot first. In this case, the yearly pivot, before driving into S1 and then launching back above the pivot zone. It’s a behaviour almost no one understands, yet AVL is following it cleanly, and it aligns perfectly with the potential Spring scenario.
There’s still plenty to play out, but whether the LPS holds or we get the deeper Spring, the chart is offering some attractive upside targets. These are large TPs, not guarantees — simply the major resistance zones that stand out on the chart.
In short:
LPS may already be in → early long with tight risk.
Spring still possible → deeper test into S1 before the real markup.
Pivot structure supports both paths, with the Spring offering the cleaner confirmation.
Either way, AVL is entering a part of the cycle where the chart finally matters again.
*Please note arrows are not time based just overall price path expected
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Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.