Alibaba: Will $BABA Bounce Back or Break Key Support (Daily TF)

19 nov 2024

Hey everyone, below is an analysis on BABA using MACD, RSI, Fibonacci levels and technical (gap) levels.

Current Price Levels:

• BABA is trading around $89.35, down significantly (~26%) from its October 7 high of $117.82.
  
• A notable gap between $85 and $86.95 suggests this is a key level of interest for potential support or further downside risk.
  

Momentum Indicators:

• MACD: Shows signs of curling upward, which could indicate momentum shifting toward bullish sentiment.
  
• RSI: Currently not oversold (at 36), but still in a relatively low range, suggesting there is room for price recovery.
  

Technical Levels:

• Gaps and Fibonacci retracements are marked as potential resistance and support zones:
  
• Gap resistance levels: $93.33-$95.05 and $96.80-$99.18.
  
• Higher resistance levels around $104.41 (gap from October 15) and $117.82 (October high).
  
• Previous daily high at $89.50 could act as near-term resistance.
  

Fibonacci Levels:

• The chart includes a retracement from the October high ($117.82) to recent lows, with levels such as 0.236 ($90.29), 0.5 ($102.53), and 0.786 ($111.27) potentially serving as resistance on any upward move.
  

Feedback and Outlook:
Support and Resistance Analysis:

• Support: The gap zone between $85-$86.95 may provide a strong base if selling pressure continues. A break below $85 could indicate further downside.
  
• Resistance: Short-term resistance is seen at $90.29 (0.236 Fib level) and $93.33-$95.05 (gap resistance). These levels will likely be tested if buying pressure builds.
  

Gaps to Be Filled:

• If the price begins to recover, the first upside target would be filling the $93.33-$95.05 gap. This aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels and may act as strong resistance.
  

Outlook:

• Bullish Case: If momentum continues to build, expect a recovery toward the $93-$95 range, with further potential to reach $102 (50% retracement). This would require breaking above immediate resistance at $90.29.
  
• Bearish Case: If the current support at $85 fails, further downside to test levels around $80 or lower is possible.
  

Final Thoughts:
The chart suggests a cautious bullish outlook in the short term, especially if the $85 support holds. Watch for price action and volume around the resistance zones to confirm whether this is a dead-cat bounce or a true reversal.

Currently in BABA 1/17/25 $100c (BOT @ $1.73).

23 dic 2024

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

So I didn't come back earlier but I closed this trade:

- BOT BABA 17 JAN 25 100c @$1.73 on 11/18/24.
- SOLD BABA 17 JAN 25 100c @$2.51 (+45%) on 12/09/24.

Held through the drop and sold when it finally gapped up lol