Bank of Baroda: Impulsive Breakout or Running Flat Trap?

3 giorni fa

The recent All-Time High at 303.95 looks like a breakout to the naked eye, but the internal structure suggests a classic Elliott Wave Trap.

The Technical Disconnect: While the move above the previous peak (299.70) was strong, it lacks the characteristics of a genuine Wave 3 impulse:

• Structure: The rally from 190.70 subdivides into a clear 3-wave (a)-(b)-(c) corrective pattern, not a 5-wave motive sequence.
  
• Precision Resistance: The price reversed exactly at the 100% Fibonacci extension, a common termination point for corrective B-waves, not impulsive breakouts.
  
• Momentum: RSI hitting 72.42 at resistance signals exhaustion rather than sustained trend strength.
  

The Setup: Running Flat Correction This price action confirms a Running Flat scenario. The "breakout" was likely a Wave B bull trap designed to clear stops before the final leg down.

• Outlook: We are entering Wave C (down).
  
• Target Zone: 234 – 247. This green box aligns with the 50-61.8% retracement cluster of the recent rally.
  
• Invalidation: A weekly close above 304. If bulls sustain price above this level, the corrective view is invalid, and a true breakout is in play.
  

Disclaimer: Educational view only. DYOR.

3 giorni fa

Nota

A typo in the chart at SL/Bullish Invalidation. It should rather be SL/Bearish Invalidation.