PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 20 APR 2023 Expiry

20 apr 2023

BANKNIFTY has gained 0.29% ~ 123pts from the last Thursday to today. Except for the 1st hourly strong candle on 17th, the rest of the trading was range bound with a slight positive bias.
The range banknifty traded in (max swings) indicated below. It just had a maximum swing of 1.28% and this explains why the options premium had no air in it.

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NIFTY on the other hand fell 1.14% ~ 203pts this week. The 1st candle of 17th basically set the tone for this week. The rest of the trades were contained within the shadow of this 1hr candle. 

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20th April Analysis
BankNifty is struggling to break-out from this level. Might be its taking a rest before the next move - but as it stands its out-performing Nifty50 quite strongly.
Even though bank nifty was unable to take out the recent swing high, the downside protection is seen as quite strong. No matter what happens - bank nifty is not falling to the 41624 levels.
Nifty50 on the other hand is going through a weak sentiment, triggered by the IT QoQ results.

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Looking at the option's premium data I strongly felt we have a down-trend post 12.30 - but the lows were strongly protected on both the indices. I must say my debit spread again went to zero !

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15mts chart is looking strong as ever, today's price action has confirmed that bulls are still in control. Yesterday I was of the impression that the support of 41624 could get taken out by 20th or 21st - thats because of a weak global sentiment. Seems like bank nifty has no intention to give up the gains!

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1hr chart is also looking quite strong, the 14.15 candle of today (+156 pts) ensured that the swing-low of 42034 is not getting taken out. Also this candle gave so much of confidence to the bears - I could say with confidence that this move ensured even the Nifty50 is closing in green today!


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