I diagrammed every line on this chart at the juncture of the dotted vertical line, except for the white line. So even though I thought that could possibly be a bullish W pattern where I annotated the yellow curves, I was aware of the likelihood it would drop down to form an uber bullish inverted H&S with the yellow curves being the left shoulder. And that appears to be what has transpired since.
Check the updates to my prior recent idea. Always come back and check my ideas for up to a few days after I initial publication, as I continue to update them.
Check the updates to my prior recent idea. Always come back and check my ideas for up to a few days after I initial publication, as I continue to update them.
Commento:
Regarding Crypto Zombie’s recent video I Was WRONG About Bitcoin….. The Game Has CHANGED!!! …
He sees ETH decoupling from BTC, but it’s doesn’t apply to all or even most major altcoins. ETH 2.0 is imminent, so ETH is leading but the others will catch up with a vengeance. ADA and DOT look like more upside to me. The market is healthy (still a bull market) and true that there could have been rotation into ETH and that will rotate back. The overhead resistance on BTC is overshadowed by the massive support underneath from a massive downtrending channel which kdub doesn’t see.
I commented:
Put 1.414 on your log-scaled Fib and look at 2013. :wink:
He sees ETH decoupling from BTC, but it’s doesn’t apply to all or even most major altcoins. ETH 2.0 is imminent, so ETH is leading but the others will catch up with a vengeance. ADA and DOT look like more upside to me. The market is healthy (still a bull market) and true that there could have been rotation into ETH and that will rotate back. The overhead resistance on BTC is overshadowed by the massive support underneath from a massive downtrending channel which kdub doesn’t see.
I commented:
Put 1.414 on your log-scaled Fib and look at 2013. :wink:
Commento:
I finally did a composite analysis on DOT using the old deprecated (coinmarketcap.com/cu...ecated-polkadot-old/) and the new charts (coinmarketcap.com/cu...encies/polkadot-new/) merged:
imgur.com/a/YxJPa1X
Apologies the right-most newer chart is not vertically scaled proportionally and should be much taller. Anyway, just do the math in your head.
DOT doesn’t have the terminal impulse Elliot Wave structure that we see in all the other cryptocurrencies that existed before 2019. And thus DOT is in a much more bullish stance, even more bullish than ADA.
Whereas I am expecting up to a 1000% gain for ADA on this next move up by April, DOT appears to have 1500 – 2000% upside for the major wave 3 (yellow numbers) presumable in the same time frame!
I will start accumulating DOT now.
imgur.com/a/YxJPa1X
Apologies the right-most newer chart is not vertically scaled proportionally and should be much taller. Anyway, just do the math in your head.
DOT doesn’t have the terminal impulse Elliot Wave structure that we see in all the other cryptocurrencies that existed before 2019. And thus DOT is in a much more bullish stance, even more bullish than ADA.
Whereas I am expecting up to a 1000% gain for ADA on this next move up by April, DOT appears to have 1500 – 2000% upside for the major wave 3 (yellow numbers) presumable in the same time frame!
I will start accumulating DOT now.
Commento:
imgur.com/a/V1h3HpA
Chris is correct that December must close with a candle body above the trendline as it did in 2013 for the second peak scenario of 2013 to be in play. Note Martin Armstrong has noted that many investors are taking capital gains profits in December in anticipation of higher taxes in 2022 but they will buy right back in. Wash sale 30 day rule doesn‘t apply as only applies to losses. Note that might be only in the stock markets, but the stock markets affect crypto. So I do believe we will get the green candle close for December with a Santa Claus rally. Also because the 1.414 log-scaled Fib (c.f. TechDev) was the bottom of this pullback for Bitcoin both in 2013 and in 2021. Thus appears 2013 is repeating.
Chris is correct that December must close with a candle body above the trendline as it did in 2013 for the second peak scenario of 2013 to be in play. Note Martin Armstrong has noted that many investors are taking capital gains profits in December in anticipation of higher taxes in 2022 but they will buy right back in. Wash sale 30 day rule doesn‘t apply as only applies to losses. Note that might be only in the stock markets, but the stock markets affect crypto. So I do believe we will get the green candle close for December with a Santa Claus rally. Also because the 1.414 log-scaled Fib (c.f. TechDev) was the bottom of this pullback for Bitcoin both in 2013 and in 2021. Thus appears 2013 is repeating.
Commento:
imgur.com/a/seqgGVg
Cowan says that lump sum asap usually beats DCA.
Compares to the stock market and says next time Bitcoin tests the overhead resistance it is headed much higher. Doesn’t think it will go down to $10k before that (or ever again but I disagree on the ever again point).
He doesn’t think Bitcoin needs to go back down to retest the lows of the horizontal support, because that was the 2009 financial crisis.
My comment:
Retest of $60k has to be in December otherwise we break the monthly candles trendline which has started the cryptowinter every time. As you noted there’s no systemic financial crisis, so we could have a V shaped recovery same as for 2013. If you put 1.414 on TechDev’s log-scaled Fib levels, you see both 2013 and this current pullback have both bounced at the same level, which in 2013 was right before the massive move to the second peak. Also there is a remarkable fractal pattern which is the same as March 2020 so looks like a V shaped launch is likely.
Cowan says that lump sum asap usually beats DCA.
Compares to the stock market and says next time Bitcoin tests the overhead resistance it is headed much higher. Doesn’t think it will go down to $10k before that (or ever again but I disagree on the ever again point).
He doesn’t think Bitcoin needs to go back down to retest the lows of the horizontal support, because that was the 2009 financial crisis.
My comment:
Retest of $60k has to be in December otherwise we break the monthly candles trendline which has started the cryptowinter every time. As you noted there’s no systemic financial crisis, so we could have a V shaped recovery same as for 2013. If you put 1.414 on TechDev’s log-scaled Fib levels, you see both 2013 and this current pullback have both bounced at the same level, which in 2013 was right before the massive move to the second peak. Also there is a remarkable fractal pattern which is the same as March 2020 so looks like a V shaped launch is likely.
Commento:
Posited inverted H&S failed. So now it really gets wild. Back down to $47k? Or in a upward channel?
Commento:
Commento:
imgur.com/a/46HP4iW
Someone has published a video mimicking my long-standing thesis of a repeat of the 2019-2020 crash with a target of $14k or below now, instead of first heading to a second higher (~$190k) peak.
I commented:
I have been publicly expecting this for past several months. But I am not 100% sure. There are also patterns pointing to 2013 second massive pump from this pullback.
@OPTICALARTdotCOM I noticed that 2019 – 2020 pattern in May/June. Enabled me to bet long from $29k for a rally. But I’m not 100% sure this is going to play out as you think. There are other patterns in play as well, such as TechDev’s 1.414 log-scaled Fib retracement being hit both in 2013 before the massive pump to the second peak and again now. Also MMCrypto identified a pattern from March 2020 that is repeating which points to a V recovery to $60+k in December. We have a breakout on the VIX but it pulled back already. Without March 2020 contagion your scenario will not play out. We will eventually get $14k because of the terminal impulse Elliot Wave in March 2020 requires wave 4 to come below $14k, but it might come after a final pump to ~$190k. The next week will tell us which scenario.
Someone has published a video mimicking my long-standing thesis of a repeat of the 2019-2020 crash with a target of $14k or below now, instead of first heading to a second higher (~$190k) peak.
I commented:
I have been publicly expecting this for past several months. But I am not 100% sure. There are also patterns pointing to 2013 second massive pump from this pullback.
@OPTICALARTdotCOM I noticed that 2019 – 2020 pattern in May/June. Enabled me to bet long from $29k for a rally. But I’m not 100% sure this is going to play out as you think. There are other patterns in play as well, such as TechDev’s 1.414 log-scaled Fib retracement being hit both in 2013 before the massive pump to the second peak and again now. Also MMCrypto identified a pattern from March 2020 that is repeating which points to a V recovery to $60+k in December. We have a breakout on the VIX but it pulled back already. Without March 2020 contagion your scenario will not play out. We will eventually get $14k because of the terminal impulse Elliot Wave in March 2020 requires wave 4 to come below $14k, but it might come after a final pump to ~$190k. The next week will tell us which scenario.
Commento:
Frankly this is scary.
Price should bounce to back above $52k. Probably should take profits there and wait for $56 – 57k before reentering long, just in case the crash scenario plays out.
Price should bounce to back above $52k. Probably should take profits there and wait for $56 – 57k before reentering long, just in case the crash scenario plays out.
Commento:
@ShelbyMoore I don't think we're going below 40k ever again. Neither do many analysts
@JamesButtery we must go below 14k eventually because the wave 2 into the March 2020 crash retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1 into July 14k peak. This is a terminal impulse Elliot Wave which requires that wave 4 dip below the top of wave 1. This is an invariant. So either below 14k now or to 190k then drop below 14k. If you want to know the reason it can drop from 190k to 14k (if does not do it now) that would be the ANYONECANSPEND attack where the legacy miners donate all the SeqWit UTXO to themselves. There is a game theory about this that nearly nobody understands properly. I am in the process of writing a blog about this for Michael Saylor to read.
@JamesButtery we must go below 14k eventually because the wave 2 into the March 2020 crash retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1 into July 14k peak. This is a terminal impulse Elliot Wave which requires that wave 4 dip below the top of wave 1. This is an invariant. So either below 14k now or to 190k then drop below 14k. If you want to know the reason it can drop from 190k to 14k (if does not do it now) that would be the ANYONECANSPEND attack where the legacy miners donate all the SeqWit UTXO to themselves. There is a game theory about this that nearly nobody understands properly. I am in the process of writing a blog about this for Michael Saylor to read.
Commento:
It’s impossible to imagine Bitcoin dropping to $14k if there’s no contagion in the stock markets. Yet the S&P500 is poised to breakout to a new ATH although it could come back to fill the gap. But watch the entire video because there’s a lot of (especially tech) stocks will in a weaker situation more akin to Bitcoin.
imgur.com/a/9VOlAuK
imgur.com/a/9VOlAuK
Commento:
S&P500 earnings growth suggests it’s going higher but it could correct lower first.
imgur.com/a/yWTuah0
imgur.com/a/yWTuah0
Commento:
typo/there’s a lot of (especially tech) stocks will in a weaker situation/there’s a lot of (especially tech) stocks *STILL* in a weaker situation/
Commento:
imgur.com/a/8G1HU2A
Bond yields and BTC correlation. So if tapering causing yields to rise then BTC explodes upwards again? Seemed yields were falling (risk off move) because everyone thought the Fed taper and lack of China bailouts would cause an imminent contagion and crash? Fed was forced to stop the QE normalization with the March 2020 plandemic contagion. Remember I think the plandemic is on purpose to force the central banks to destroy the USD monetary system to usher in the Bitcoin 666 system. GoT’s stance is that economy is strong and risk-off is a miscalculation at least until QE taper has more time to accelerate.
10YR yield is about to break up or down.
Long-term / short-term BTC hodlers ratio is implicating a MASSIVE pump imminent. It started to decline as it should as price pumps but got interrupted by this pullback but no where near lows! Very similar to both pullback 2013 and Sept 2020! Doesn’t mean the price can‘t go lower first but MMCrypto Dec must be green candle.
Bond yields and BTC correlation. So if tapering causing yields to rise then BTC explodes upwards again? Seemed yields were falling (risk off move) because everyone thought the Fed taper and lack of China bailouts would cause an imminent contagion and crash? Fed was forced to stop the QE normalization with the March 2020 plandemic contagion. Remember I think the plandemic is on purpose to force the central banks to destroy the USD monetary system to usher in the Bitcoin 666 system. GoT’s stance is that economy is strong and risk-off is a miscalculation at least until QE taper has more time to accelerate.
10YR yield is about to break up or down.
Long-term / short-term BTC hodlers ratio is implicating a MASSIVE pump imminent. It started to decline as it should as price pumps but got interrupted by this pullback but no where near lows! Very similar to both pullback 2013 and Sept 2020! Doesn’t mean the price can‘t go lower first but MMCrypto Dec must be green candle.
Commento:
Looks like Bitcoin may want to come down again severely to test the weak hands. That could be a bearish H&S forming or it could be a broadening wedge back to the upside.
Both 2013 and 2020 dipped back down quite severely before V recovery. Looks like there was one more bull trap bounce as it slide down in 2013 and 2020 before the second capitulation to severe low before the bonafide V recovery. So we may get a bounce now to form the right top of the right shoulder then a drop to $43 – 45k.
bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD
Both 2013 and 2020 dipped back down quite severely before V recovery. Looks like there was one more bull trap bounce as it slide down in 2013 and 2020 before the second capitulation to severe low before the bonafide V recovery. So we may get a bounce now to form the right top of the right shoulder then a drop to $43 – 45k.
bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD
Commento:
MMCrypto has this downside target on this latest video.
Commento:
Sub-14k probably comes after 100+k. Look at the Elliot Wave structure. The wave 2 retraced more than 61.8 of wave 1 into the March 2020 flash crash. Thus wave 4 will retrace below the top of wave 1 as this is a terminal impulse condition. And wave 4 must be short in duration so this will be a flash crash. Many will be rektd. Probably will fill that long-standing 9.8k CME gap. This will be caused perhaps by the bankruptcy of Tether and/or a specific attack that is known to destroy the 2017 softfork of Bitcoin.
Commento:
imgur.com/a/JRN0uqE
My comment:
Sub-14k probably comes after 100+k. Look at the Elliot Wave structure. The wave 2 retraced more than 61.8 of wave 1 into the March 2020 flash crash. Thus wave 4 will retrace below the top of wave 1 as this is a terminal impulse condition. And wave 4 must be short in duration so this will be a flash crash. Many will be rektd. Probably will fill that long-standing 9.8k CME gap. This will be caused perhaps by the bankruptcy of Tether and/or a specific attack that is known to destroy the 2017 softfork of Bitcoin.
Also 2.39 times 39k (i.e. 39k + 1.39 times 39k) equals 93k not 108k. He was looking at the wrong number on the screen.
Fib circles (ellipses) are indicating a 190k top for major wave 4, then flash crash to 9k then a flash V rebound to 300k. 2022 is going be crazy year.
Same 185k to 200k level can be obtained with TechDev's 2.272 log-scaled Fib extensions from peaks to bottoms. This and the Fib ellipses predicted both of these recent two tops perfectly including the timing. And thus 190k by April 11 like clockwork.
My comment:
Sub-14k probably comes after 100+k. Look at the Elliot Wave structure. The wave 2 retraced more than 61.8 of wave 1 into the March 2020 flash crash. Thus wave 4 will retrace below the top of wave 1 as this is a terminal impulse condition. And wave 4 must be short in duration so this will be a flash crash. Many will be rektd. Probably will fill that long-standing 9.8k CME gap. This will be caused perhaps by the bankruptcy of Tether and/or a specific attack that is known to destroy the 2017 softfork of Bitcoin.
Also 2.39 times 39k (i.e. 39k + 1.39 times 39k) equals 93k not 108k. He was looking at the wrong number on the screen.
Fib circles (ellipses) are indicating a 190k top for major wave 4, then flash crash to 9k then a flash V rebound to 300k. 2022 is going be crazy year.
Same 185k to 200k level can be obtained with TechDev's 2.272 log-scaled Fib extensions from peaks to bottoms. This and the Fib ellipses predicted both of these recent two tops perfectly including the timing. And thus 190k by April 11 like clockwork.
Commento:
Possible bottom with a W pattern reversal and wedge breakout back to the ~$55k level of the breakdown point of this flash crash.
Commento:
I see more downside.
Commento:
BTC shorts bottomed and increasing again.
Stock markets have bearish gaps that need to be backfilled this week.
Stock markets have bearish gaps that need to be backfilled this week.
Commento:
Nasdaq / S&P 500 needs to come down more. That’s more risk off movement, which is short-term bearish for Bitcoin.
Commento:
Downside range is ~$42.5 – $45k. Upside is $50.2k before downside is invalidated.
Downside range is ~$42.5 – $45k. Upside is $50.2k before downside is invalidated.
Commento:
Exceeded the upside range. Looks like a W pattern breakout headed to $53 – 54k.
Commento:
Unclear if backtesting the posited top of W which has numerous possible necklines or if need backtest the huge wedge, which projects up to $58k. In any case, I no longer think there will be a drop below $48k again.
imgur.com/a/PVdwHSb
I’m gaining confidence in $190k by end of Q1 2022.