BITCOIN BREAKOUT ATTEMPT ''THE BATTLE OF BULLWATER BAY''
Hello everyone,
First of all I hope everyone of you is doing well. If you have been a follower of my channel you know that on my previous analysis 'Bitcoin and the attack on downtrend' we hit all targets! And ofcourse the call of the legendary shorting squeeze and the bitcoin bottom call!
It is now time for the next chapter: Prepare for the season finale! S03E010BattleOfBullwaterBay.mkv!
I think Bitcoin is setting up for a breakout attempt.There are some requirements though!
In my previous analysis I have shown you that I recognized our fractal structure: we are doing a classic pump - pullback wave fractal structure. For those who did not follow my previous analysis.
A recap for you:
These kind of wave structures happen in a bulltrend and bear trend. The psychology behind these structures is like this:
Bullish: We pump hard. Profit is taken at the top. Then..profit takers wait for the price to 'pull back' until it is interesting enough to buy back again. If there are enough buyers interested. It will pump higher!
Bearish: We pump hard. Profit is taken at the top. Then.. the price drops.. A small bounce occurs.. shorters take their chance and it is then further shorted down.
Here is a pump - pullback wave structure in a bullish trend. Notice how every pullback is being bought :
Here is a pump - pullback wave structure in a bearish trend. Notice how it gets shorted
Now back to the main chart. I think that we are out almost out of steam and are almost ready to start our main pullback judging by our RSI.
If you take a look at my RSI. I pointed with arrows how I think this will play out. We will rise up just a little bit and get rejected by the RSI resistance. We will then begin our descend from the 83xx 84xx range.
Now the question for many here on tradingview is..
What are we? Bullish or Bearish?
Okay im making this simple for you:
If we are bullish. We will get picked up at 76xx - 78xx range and move up
If we are bearish. We will get shorted at 76xx - 78xx and move down
I personally think we are bullish. We had a large correction of the 'december crowd' exiting the market.
+ Alot of the shorters were wiped out during the short squeeze. I think we won't have enough sellers to short it down. But ofcourse this is my personal opinion and I can be wrong!
If we can hold de 76xx to 78xx range we LAUNCH the assault on the downtrend
Ultimately fate will decide. Will there be enough buyers? We are going to find out soon!
Whatever it will be.. Bears... Fate had us met as foes. But this coin will make us brothers!
Please remmember that this analysis is a scenario. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Always consider both BULLISH and BEARISH scenarios. Humans make mistakes!
What is your take on this? Do you think BITCOIN is bullish or BEARISH?
Let me know in the comment section below!
Goodluck to both bears and bull!
Have a great day!
As a last message:
I see alot of people comparing 2014 to 2018. It seems logical but let me tell you something:
If you click on my tradingview page. Check one of my first fractal predictions here on tradingview. ''Fractal to 11.8k updated'' I was using fractal as my only GUIDE and it failed The thing is with fractals guys.. We follow them partially. Fractal can break and evolve into a new path. You can use them as an indicator. But you should always consider them with other indicators. Fractals can serve as a guide, not as a fact. Please remmember that.. The market conditions in 2014 were completely different. Bitcoin was associated with buying drugs.. are major exchange was hacked.. People didn't know what blockchain could do..
Right now there is hype, exuberance and interested. I think that this will fuel the next run!
First of all I hope everyone of you is doing well. If you have been a follower of my channel you know that on my previous analysis 'Bitcoin and the attack on downtrend' we hit all targets! And ofcourse the call of the legendary shorting squeeze and the bitcoin bottom call!
It is now time for the next chapter: Prepare for the season finale! S03E010BattleOfBullwaterBay.mkv!
I think Bitcoin is setting up for a breakout attempt.There are some requirements though!
In my previous analysis I have shown you that I recognized our fractal structure: we are doing a classic pump - pullback wave fractal structure. For those who did not follow my previous analysis.
A recap for you:
These kind of wave structures happen in a bulltrend and bear trend. The psychology behind these structures is like this:
Bullish: We pump hard. Profit is taken at the top. Then..profit takers wait for the price to 'pull back' until it is interesting enough to buy back again. If there are enough buyers interested. It will pump higher!
Bearish: We pump hard. Profit is taken at the top. Then.. the price drops.. A small bounce occurs.. shorters take their chance and it is then further shorted down.
Here is a pump - pullback wave structure in a bullish trend. Notice how every pullback is being bought :
Here is a pump - pullback wave structure in a bearish trend. Notice how it gets shorted
Now back to the main chart. I think that we are out almost out of steam and are almost ready to start our main pullback judging by our RSI.
If you take a look at my RSI. I pointed with arrows how I think this will play out. We will rise up just a little bit and get rejected by the RSI resistance. We will then begin our descend from the 83xx 84xx range.
Now the question for many here on tradingview is..
What are we? Bullish or Bearish?
Okay im making this simple for you:
If we are bullish. We will get picked up at 76xx - 78xx range and move up
If we are bearish. We will get shorted at 76xx - 78xx and move down
I personally think we are bullish. We had a large correction of the 'december crowd' exiting the market.
+ Alot of the shorters were wiped out during the short squeeze. I think we won't have enough sellers to short it down. But ofcourse this is my personal opinion and I can be wrong!
If we can hold de 76xx to 78xx range we LAUNCH the assault on the downtrend
Ultimately fate will decide. Will there be enough buyers? We are going to find out soon!
Whatever it will be.. Bears... Fate had us met as foes. But this coin will make us brothers!
Please remmember that this analysis is a scenario. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Always consider both BULLISH and BEARISH scenarios. Humans make mistakes!
What is your take on this? Do you think BITCOIN is bullish or BEARISH?
Let me know in the comment section below!
Goodluck to both bears and bull!
Have a great day!
As a last message:
I see alot of people comparing 2014 to 2018. It seems logical but let me tell you something:
If you click on my tradingview page. Check one of my first fractal predictions here on tradingview. ''Fractal to 11.8k updated'' I was using fractal as my only GUIDE and it failed The thing is with fractals guys.. We follow them partially. Fractal can break and evolve into a new path. You can use them as an indicator. But you should always consider them with other indicators. Fractals can serve as a guide, not as a fact. Please remmember that.. The market conditions in 2014 were completely different. Bitcoin was associated with buying drugs.. are major exchange was hacked.. People didn't know what blockchain could do..
Right now there is hype, exuberance and interested. I think that this will fuel the next run!
Nota
If you like this analysis think about giving it giving it a thumbs up!Nota
As you can see the pullback wave started earlier than I anticipated. It really was out of steam!Nota
Hey everyone,What a battle! You can see that I and many expected bitcoin to reach 7.6k after forming a pullback structure and head and shoulders.
We got caught in what is known as a bear trap! Alot of buying interest under 8k. This move was extremely bullish.
I'm not yet at my PC so I cannot update the chart. But I want to inform you that there is a INVERSED HEAD AND SHOULDERS is forming! If true this thing is going to skyrocket.
When im at a pc I will show you.
Nota
Be on the lookout if this structure is being finished! INVERSE H&S.
If it does this thing will LAUNCH an assault on the downtrend!
Nota
That is the 4HR chart by the way.Nota
Ok good.. we got our dump to form the right shoulder. IF we can get up now we should be able to moonshot.
If we fall down pattern is invalidated.
Nota
4HR viewNota
There we go guys H&S complete. We should make an attempt to launch an assault soon.Nota
Bitcoin is getting completely squeezed between these channels. It's decision time soon. This is either going to break out very hard or drop like a rock.
Nota
Well... I think you will agree with me that this market isn't looking very bearish atm... Bitcoin is just not going down anymore. Alts are booming. Is this the beginning of the bullrun?Nota
THE BULLS ARE WINNING THE BATTLE OF BULLWATER BAY!!Nota
I can draw all kind of cool lines if you want but really it is just a waiting game right now before we break through the LOG downtrend.Ethereum already broke the LOG downtrend and many coins are flying so I expect that bitcoin will do the same.
What a ride guys.. we are almost there.
Nota
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN I WELCOME YOU IN THE BULLRUN OF 2018 Nota
Celeeeeeeeeeebration timeeeeeeeee!!!!!!! We did it guys!Nota
Hey everyone,I hope you all went full party mode last night cause we broke the downtrend!
So what's next? I need a little bit more time to collect some data. I will be back with a fresh new analysis soon.
For now this is what I have for you:
We can see that Bitcoin hit 9k and created a red gravestone doji (bearish reversal candle)
RSI is overbought on the most frames. It looks like we are in for a retracement. This is ofcourse pretty normal after having so much green.
What I would like to see is that bitcoin confirms our downtrend channel as support (redline).
So I think it is possible that we retrace to around 85xx and solidify it, after that we will be ready to assault to 9k again.
Some other cool info:
The daily RSI broke the 60 level. This is something we haven't done for months! Super bullish!
Have a nice day everyone!
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