Bitcoin Daily Update (day 328)

15 feb 2019

Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

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Consensio: M EMA < P < S EMA < L EMA

Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel | Flag is starting to get too long in relation to pole
Horizontals: S: $3,557 | R: $3,578
Trendline: Just noticed how we got a nice pop after breaking through this TL. Tells me that might be an important area of resistance to breakthough

Parabolic SAR: $3,381
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.75% spread
BTCUSDSHORTS: Testing local low, will it double bottom or create lower low? Lower low would be quite bullish imo.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
TD’ Sequential: R4 = R3
Ichimoku Cloud: Thin cloud above 50 EMA represents little resistance
Relative Strength Index: Bouncing from 50 retest which is bullish
Average Directional Index: Continuing to roll over, will it support > 20? I think so.
Price Action: 24h: -0.1% | 2w: +5.2% | 1m: +1.2%
Bollinger Bands: Squeezing with price above MA which is bullish
Stochastic Oscillator: Weekly buy signal

Summary: There are very few bearish indicators that I am seeing. The TD Sequential is on a red 4 but other than that the picture being painted is quite bullish. I have an urge to add to my long exposure but I am going to wait until the market moves more in my favor.

I love seeing the daily RSI bounce off of 50 while the weekly Stochastic is giving us a buy signal. I love seeing the price get squeezed in between the M EMA and L EMA while the L EMA flattens out. I love seeing the pop that we got after the trendline above was violated. I love seeing backwardation with price above the 2 week high. I like seeing the bollinger band squeeze with price above MA.

I have build a good amount of long exposure and am hopeful that a strong bounce here will get the Trading Challenge out of the gutter. WIth one strong trend in my favor I can absolutely recoup the losses that I have experienced over the last 6 weeks.

That being said I am staying on my toes. If we break down from here then the market would be primed for capitulation. Crypto markets love to paint a bullish picture right before dumping all over everyone. Sort of like what we saw during $6,000 consolidation.

17 feb 2019

Nota

Looks like I am going to miss another day of the Daily Update. Yesterday I was swamped helping Tyler Jenks and Leah Wald prepare for the Hyperwave webinar this weekend. Today I attended the first half of it and tonight I am going to see a concert! Should be able to do another update tomorrow evening.

In the meantime my opinion about the markets have not changed. Everything is looking primed for a big dead cat bounce, however it is important to stay on your toes because if it breaks down then look out below!