We will tell you why BTC will not go lower than 5800$
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Hi Guys,
as averyone wonders how low BTC can actually possibly fall we tried do answer this question.
It is not easy task. We have to get back to the basics.
Why is it even possible to have a BTC, to make any transaction with BTC....? Have you ever thought about it?
We don't mean mobile phone, public address, private key, exchanges and so on.
There are whole infractructure, people, companies involved.
Developers, miners and people who want to use it (buyers and sellers). That's it.
That is the whole magic. Without them there were no cryptoworld today as it already looks like.
Here are the key factors:
1. Satoshi Nakamoto has/have created BTC. They figured it out how to create, safe, digital asset combining it with the whole network of miners
2. Miners give essential infrastracture to maintain the network and make it possible for BTC to be transferd by 3rd parties
3. Finally we have a network effect. It means more and more people want to have, buy, transfer, hodl it.
So here are 3 essential factors to make everything work.
First point mentioned here is pretty obvious and we won't go into it any further in here. One important information: Satoshi Nakamoto is in possession of around 1mln of BTC. So this 7 bln of dollars. They have enough money for development of the project as well as keeping the price at any level buying or selling their (crypto) money.
Second point is here very very important in this puzzle. To keep this network all miners and nodes has to be duly rewarded.
Mining effectivness/profitability is directly connected to the price of the electricity. 90% costs in time span are electricity costs.
So how much $ does it cost to obtain 1 BTC? Good question ha?
So last couple of months we had a massive outflow of miners from China due to harsh regulations over there. Most of the miners are in the pools.
Here is the the structure of the pools worldwide:
Pool Blocks Share %
BTC.com 1,172 25.02%
AntPool 676 14.43%
Slush 533 11.38%
BTC.TOP 515 11.00%
ViaBTC 509 10.87%
unknown 335 7.15%
DiscusFish / F2Pool 324 6.92%
BTCC 177 3.78%
Most of them operate in EU, US some of them in China. Please look at the link.
blocktrail.com/BTC/pools?resolution=1m
We have to now figure it out where most miners located are. We haven't found 100% reliable data but here is something helpful.
Distribution of the nodes in the world. bitnodes.earn.com/
So here is looks on numbers:
Country____Percentage/share__Cost/mining 1 BTC in USD
We can assume that diggers/miners/rigs are more or less same distributed as the nodes.
When we calculate the weighted average (depending on the methodology as we did not take all the countries into account) we have minimum price when it is even profitable. We range from 5874$ to 7530$. When price significantly dips someone has to take action (Satoshi Nakamoto?) and buy BTC to get the level of the BTC price when digging will be profitable again.
Satoshi Nakamoto takes care of that business to run smoothly as much as possible.
Without adequete price there will be no network. Without network there will be no BTC. Without BTC many people/organisations (including Satoshi Nakamoto) will be totally broke.
We had such dip on 5th February 2018 and 1st of April 2018 when price was around 6000$. It bounced back very quickly to the higher levels.
HUGS!
WBM Team
as averyone wonders how low BTC can actually possibly fall we tried do answer this question.
It is not easy task. We have to get back to the basics.
Why is it even possible to have a BTC, to make any transaction with BTC....? Have you ever thought about it?
We don't mean mobile phone, public address, private key, exchanges and so on.
There are whole infractructure, people, companies involved.
Developers, miners and people who want to use it (buyers and sellers). That's it.
That is the whole magic. Without them there were no cryptoworld today as it already looks like.
Here are the key factors:
1. Satoshi Nakamoto has/have created BTC. They figured it out how to create, safe, digital asset combining it with the whole network of miners
2. Miners give essential infrastracture to maintain the network and make it possible for BTC to be transferd by 3rd parties
3. Finally we have a network effect. It means more and more people want to have, buy, transfer, hodl it.
So here are 3 essential factors to make everything work.
First point mentioned here is pretty obvious and we won't go into it any further in here. One important information: Satoshi Nakamoto is in possession of around 1mln of BTC. So this 7 bln of dollars. They have enough money for development of the project as well as keeping the price at any level buying or selling their (crypto) money.
Second point is here very very important in this puzzle. To keep this network all miners and nodes has to be duly rewarded.
Mining effectivness/profitability is directly connected to the price of the electricity. 90% costs in time span are electricity costs.
So how much $ does it cost to obtain 1 BTC? Good question ha?
So last couple of months we had a massive outflow of miners from China due to harsh regulations over there. Most of the miners are in the pools.
Here is the the structure of the pools worldwide:
Pool Blocks Share %
BTC.com 1,172 25.02%
AntPool 676 14.43%
Slush 533 11.38%
BTC.TOP 515 11.00%
ViaBTC 509 10.87%
unknown 335 7.15%
DiscusFish / F2Pool 324 6.92%
BTCC 177 3.78%
Most of them operate in EU, US some of them in China. Please look at the link.
blocktrail.com/BTC/pools?resolution=1m
We have to now figure it out where most miners located are. We haven't found 100% reliable data but here is something helpful.
Distribution of the nodes in the world. bitnodes.earn.com/
So here is looks on numbers:
Country____Percentage/share__Cost/mining 1 BTC in USD
- USA________23,66____________4758
- Germany____18,22____________14275
- China_______9,83_____________3172
- France______6,04_____________7930
- Netherlands__4,53_____________9449
- UK_________ 3,61____________ 8402
- Canada_____3,57____________3965
- Russia______3,34____________ 4675
- Unknown___2,88____________6951
- Singapore__2,14_____________5936
We can assume that diggers/miners/rigs are more or less same distributed as the nodes.
When we calculate the weighted average (depending on the methodology as we did not take all the countries into account) we have minimum price when it is even profitable. We range from 5874$ to 7530$. When price significantly dips someone has to take action (Satoshi Nakamoto?) and buy BTC to get the level of the BTC price when digging will be profitable again.
Satoshi Nakamoto takes care of that business to run smoothly as much as possible.
Without adequete price there will be no network. Without network there will be no BTC. Without BTC many people/organisations (including Satoshi Nakamoto) will be totally broke.
We had such dip on 5th February 2018 and 1st of April 2018 when price was around 6000$. It bounced back very quickly to the higher levels.
HUGS!
WBM Team
Nota
Useful links:Prices of the electricity across the world elitefixtures.com/blog/post/2683/bitcoin-mining-costs-by-country/
List of top wallets:
bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html
Nota
PS mistake on the chart. Should be MACD positive divergence.
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