Bitcoins big bears shakeout, repeating the last big rally?
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Bitcoin has been moving sideways since the rally off a few days ago. Markets usually cool down and go sideways after a big rally like that and with Bitcoin during weekends the chances are even higher. When we look at the rally off month ago, we are almost moving in identical but there are a few differences:
- Now it's weekend with less whales
- Volume is much lower, but that's logical because it is weekend, but also offers more room for manipulation
It looks like we have finished the purple area and could be going up from here. I do think chances are bigger that we should see a bigger consolidation phase with prices between 7400 and 8300. My view on things now is, that even if we go up from here and break the 8400, i think a new high will be less sustainable. I think the high for this rally will be less high than if we make a bigger correction now. I am still long from the 6710 and i am planing to ride it out with the next wave up.
Bigger game plan:
Since almost two weeks now i have been saying that we would need higher prices in the 8K's and maybe even 9K's to shake out all the bears, but the weakness of the market was confusing. When the second rally to the 7200 got sold of pretty hard, i got confused as well because i really thought a solid double bottom was formed. Since that drop from the 7200 i knew the market was getting weaker but still i went long at the 6710 because i believed my theory about the accumulation was right. But that drop from the 6950 to 6700 was not giving much confidence as well :). But quite fast after that drop the whales showed their hand and started to push the market up and triggered a massive short squeeze. When we were still in the 6K levels i talked about that IF we would rally up to the 8K/9K levels i would start to build up a big short position. That idea has not changed, yet!
So what my plan for now is, that if we do rally up from here, i could be building up my short position around the 8800/9000. If we DO make that bigger correction now, than i will probably start building it up around the 9200/9400. But i won't start to short it without any signals that momentum is slowing down. For more information please read some of my previous analysis.
I want to thank you guys again for making me the number 1 author of the week, thats a record for me :) And today i crossed the 5000 followers as well. Last but not least, i have the number 1 Bitcoin idea, again :)
Good luck trading and don't don't trade to much during weekends :)
David
- Now it's weekend with less whales
- Volume is much lower, but that's logical because it is weekend, but also offers more room for manipulation
It looks like we have finished the purple area and could be going up from here. I do think chances are bigger that we should see a bigger consolidation phase with prices between 7400 and 8300. My view on things now is, that even if we go up from here and break the 8400, i think a new high will be less sustainable. I think the high for this rally will be less high than if we make a bigger correction now. I am still long from the 6710 and i am planing to ride it out with the next wave up.
Bigger game plan:
Since almost two weeks now i have been saying that we would need higher prices in the 8K's and maybe even 9K's to shake out all the bears, but the weakness of the market was confusing. When the second rally to the 7200 got sold of pretty hard, i got confused as well because i really thought a solid double bottom was formed. Since that drop from the 7200 i knew the market was getting weaker but still i went long at the 6710 because i believed my theory about the accumulation was right. But that drop from the 6950 to 6700 was not giving much confidence as well :). But quite fast after that drop the whales showed their hand and started to push the market up and triggered a massive short squeeze. When we were still in the 6K levels i talked about that IF we would rally up to the 8K/9K levels i would start to build up a big short position. That idea has not changed, yet!
So what my plan for now is, that if we do rally up from here, i could be building up my short position around the 8800/9000. If we DO make that bigger correction now, than i will probably start building it up around the 9200/9400. But i won't start to short it without any signals that momentum is slowing down. For more information please read some of my previous analysis.
I want to thank you guys again for making me the number 1 author of the week, thats a record for me :) And today i crossed the 5000 followers as well. Last but not least, i have the number 1 Bitcoin idea, again :)
Good luck trading and don't don't trade to much during weekends :)
David
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Still got the looks it want's to copy the other moveNota
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And another zoom in of the pictureNota
Watch out for a fake break out to the upside, these things have happened allot lately. Volume is still very low so it’s very trickyNota
In the chart below, you can see those 3 moments where i saw some price action that kind of indicated which direction we could go. The first 2 clearly said down and the third one was saying up. I posted these moments in my previous analysis, but still not sure if they could be traded. Clearly they could, giving moves from 150 to 300 points. I don't know what the agenda of these whales is yet, with the first 2 moves i thought maybe they are taking profit from the 6K levels, but when i saw the third one, i started to think this is maybe just a whale who trades at low volume and within a consolidation taking 100 to 300 points. It's difficult to say, but 3 in row does not really sound like a coincidenceNota
And there is the breakout, but watch out for a false breakout, price should not drop below 8100/8200 anymore because that it gets trickySo it looks like we are making an identical move as a month ago. If we continue like this we should see another move up soon. But i don't like it when things get TO easy, so be aware
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I have moved my stop to 8100ish of the position i still hold from 6710. If we reach 8600/8700 i will close as wellNota
8400 won't be an easy one to break, but if bulls manage to make a good bull flag from this small squeeze, it COULD push right through it. A month ago we had a 600 point rally after the breakout, lets see what they can do nowNota
When we zoom in, we can see that bulls are trying to push higher here. But if we start to see a small H&S here, it could be a first signs of a false breakout. If price stays above that green area, than it's still 90% bullish momentum and in the making of a bull flag. Looking at the low volume on the 1 min chart, seeing there is no selling pressure, chances are bigger we go up from hereIt's just that this market has become meaner every week. So we have to think about every scenario
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Still inside the bull flag, as long as price stays above that green area around 8280 the flag is in full force. Whatever happens, price should stay above the lower green area, breakout level of this rally. Target of this bull flag is around 8650. But the 8400 is a heavy resistance so it wont be easy to break it.Don't forget to like guys if you like this idea and my updates :)
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So the green support area held as a support for now at least. We should not stay in this flag for many hours and should see some follow through soon to keep bullish momentum aliveNota
Looks like an attempt to break out now, maybe a bit to early though. Think Asia must wake up first :) before the market decides which direction to takeNota
There are some people pushing it down, but bulls are trying to make a small parabolic move to break out of this bull flagNota
And bulls are loosing their gripNota
I have moved my stop to 8250 of my position from 6710. To just below that green support area. I am starting to think the 8400 is still to heavy for now. A failed attempt would be confirmed if we drop below that green area. If we stay above it bulls will probably try it again. When you look at my primary chart, you can see that i marked it as a heavy resistance area. I was thinking about just selling here at 8370, but market sentiment is still very strong, so the green support could catch the price if we drop from here
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Here we can see the rally after the breakout has been weaker if we compare it to the one on the left. The triangle we broke out of has a target of around 8500/8600, but if we fail to break the 8400 and fall short of this target AND if we break the 8250 support, price could make a fast drop.Thats it for today guys, Good luck trading,
Don't forget to like if you appreciate my work here, i am also loosing grip on the daily author :) LOL
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No don't start to think that i did this :) LOLNota
Looks like we will make another drop from here, unless we break that necklineNota
Bulls are trying to fight this. That green level is an important support now,could also be the neckline of an H&S. So if we drop below it i think we can see 7700 very soon. If bulls can show some force now and break that small neck line of the inverse H&S it still has to fight that red resistance area. So we could say we are in a channel now, and hopefully we will see some direction soonNota
Slowly dropping, could accelerate if we drop below the 8000Nota
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Sometimes it's just to easy, wish it was always like that :)I posted a new idea, don't forget to like :)
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