Bitcoin extra Squeeze Update :)
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I thought today's move was worth posting a new update. So here we go:
So lets put things in perspective, without bulls getting to bullish and bears start to cry :) Like we had a half day ago, but the other way around. In other words, without getting to emotional because of these moves.
First of all, yesterdays drop was just as bad as todays squeeze. There is a difference though IMO, yesterday we saw selling volume during the drop and today we saw a short squeeze. Meaning the first one is more voluntarily and the squeeze is forced. So the market is still looking down looking at those facts. Thing that bothers me about this squeeze, we did not even break the 8200 low. I have been saying that i have 2 scenario's for the short term, bullish and bearish. But both had to drop below the previous low. With the bullish scenario i said that we could find big support around the 8000 and from there on resume the bull trend we have since last month. But since we did not even drop below the 8200 i have a feeling the correction downwards is still not over. I still give this 75% chance that we make another drop to at least below the 8200.
For now it's difficult to judge, this move is still quite strong, the bull is very stable, so we have to assume that we make another move up of at least 100/300 points. To give you a feeling of what i have in mind, i am showing the chart on the left from 2 months ago. The bear flag is almost identical, biggest difference is that the one we are in now is half the size, but the drop from the high is also half the size. I placed those red an green rectangles to show where the price could go if we follow the same pattern as 2 months ago. I think most of you still remember that fake breakout of that bull flag at 8600 to 8850, from that point we made another big drop. The ones who have followed for a longer time, know i use fractals more often, but until a certain point they don't work. So this fractal is not to show that we will drop to the 7000. Only to show that i still think we will make another low around 8000 at least.
If we get above the 9000, than this view gets shaky, above the 9300/9400 it can be thrown out of the window :) and we have to assume the higher low is confirmed (from April) and that we have to look up again. Most alt's were looking quite bad/bearish up until this squeeze, it looks much better now, but still most of them are below their resistance levels. So a push for Bitcoin above 9000 will probably make the picture bullish again for Alts as well.
I hope you find this interesting and helps you to put things in perspective instead of getting too emotional
Good luck
So lets put things in perspective, without bulls getting to bullish and bears start to cry :) Like we had a half day ago, but the other way around. In other words, without getting to emotional because of these moves.
First of all, yesterdays drop was just as bad as todays squeeze. There is a difference though IMO, yesterday we saw selling volume during the drop and today we saw a short squeeze. Meaning the first one is more voluntarily and the squeeze is forced. So the market is still looking down looking at those facts. Thing that bothers me about this squeeze, we did not even break the 8200 low. I have been saying that i have 2 scenario's for the short term, bullish and bearish. But both had to drop below the previous low. With the bullish scenario i said that we could find big support around the 8000 and from there on resume the bull trend we have since last month. But since we did not even drop below the 8200 i have a feeling the correction downwards is still not over. I still give this 75% chance that we make another drop to at least below the 8200.
For now it's difficult to judge, this move is still quite strong, the bull is very stable, so we have to assume that we make another move up of at least 100/300 points. To give you a feeling of what i have in mind, i am showing the chart on the left from 2 months ago. The bear flag is almost identical, biggest difference is that the one we are in now is half the size, but the drop from the high is also half the size. I placed those red an green rectangles to show where the price could go if we follow the same pattern as 2 months ago. I think most of you still remember that fake breakout of that bull flag at 8600 to 8850, from that point we made another big drop. The ones who have followed for a longer time, know i use fractals more often, but until a certain point they don't work. So this fractal is not to show that we will drop to the 7000. Only to show that i still think we will make another low around 8000 at least.
If we get above the 9000, than this view gets shaky, above the 9300/9400 it can be thrown out of the window :) and we have to assume the higher low is confirmed (from April) and that we have to look up again. Most alt's were looking quite bad/bearish up until this squeeze, it looks much better now, but still most of them are below their resistance levels. So a push for Bitcoin above 9000 will probably make the picture bullish again for Alts as well.
I hope you find this interesting and helps you to put things in perspective instead of getting too emotional
Good luck
Nota
I looked up my analysis during that move 2 months ago. Even for myself it's good to look back :). 
Nota
Could still be inside that bull flag, waiting to make that fake break out. I thought we had that moment yesterday, but could still happen. Difficult to say because of how the price is moving the last 2 daysNota
I will continue my updates here now, or it gets to confusing i think :).Okay so it broke that small bear flag to the upside, but still bearish of course. It's testing the bigger bear flag on the low side again. But as i mentioned before, don't know how much value it still has, since it broke several times now. 8450/8400 could be a strong support level. Not really much to add, still think we go down to at least the previous low around 8200.
Nota
So it broke the flag, but the 8400/8450 still giving some support, if they manage to stay here for a while, than chances increase it could form a higher low and go up again. So far i am still assuming we drop from hereNota
There is allot of support buying going on the last few hours, probably the same people who prevented that drop 2 days ago. When price broke all supports and was ready to make a drop to 8000 and out of nowhere a squeeze came up. The market clearly wants to go down, but each moment it seems to make another drop it gets pushed back up again. I know they can keep doing this for a long time, maybe even push it back to 8800 and maybe even higher, but because of these things i actually get even more confirmation that we are going lower sooner or later. So far it can't get above the 8550ish, at the moment TA says clearly down, but this manipulative market can do whatever it wants, especially when volume is low.
Nota
Sorry, posted the last update in the wrong analsysis. So here again;But what i don't understand yet, why don't they push it higher. A reason could be, not enough short positions have build up with stops at 8600 to create another squeeze up, or they have not yet sold enough at these prices and get let it drop yet. This is all guessing of what could be going on, can't say for sure of course. Just thinking out loud :)
Here we can see those support buying candles, that just pup up out of nowhere. So far that support at the green area is holding
Nota
According to the fractal, we should be in this yellow area now. Assuming we have already had that fake upwards breakout. This could explain this indecisive movement we are seeing the past few hoursNota
Think we will see something like this, a move up towards 8650 and than make a dropNota
Still moving sideways, starting to slip this time, lets see if those support buyers are still there or have given up alreadyNota
the support of this channel still holds, normally we should an upwards breakout, but if it does drop through support around 8400, we could see an acceleration downNota
Not much to add, calling it a day, getting quite boring. Only small squeezes up and down. Probably see an acceleration to either side within a few hours. Looks like a small triangle, so chances are a bit bigger for a drop now. But seen strange support buying several times today, so have to wait and see what happens. Good luckNota
So the lower low has been made, as I said I still expected to happen. Now things get more confusing. It was looking very weak up until this squeeze, it could mean 2 things now. It’s just a small correction after the drop from the 8800, or we follow that blue line, the low is set and we continue up again. I still think chances are bigger we drop moreNota
So far it looks like a solid bull flag, it's against a heavy resistance now around 8400/8450, won't be easy to break that one. If bulls manage to push it above 8550/8600, than it will be quite realistic that we have set the low, won't mean the high of 10K will break, but it will be a first step. 9000 and 9400 have to broken first to really think about thatNota
Still there are people thinking and saying, this market doesn’t get manipulated, isn’t controlled mostly by whales. Just look at the charts, and all those squeezes up and down. And look at the chart of any stock index and compare the movements. So the 8400 was to heavy for now, still above previous low, if it drops below it things can get nasty!
Nota
When only looking at these squeezes up and down, so not looking at anything else! I would say the market want to go down but keeps trying to squeeze shorts out before making a big drop. So again, purely based on that AND it’s what I think, so I could be wrong about it. Not a prediction, just trying to unravel the manipulationNota
I didn’t even see the last few hours (not at home) but looks like a triangle is formed, can always brake both ways, so hopefully we will see some direction soon. In this scenario, break downwards has the bigger oddsNota
So here is the triangle, with al these great moves, frustrating bulls and bears, because that's what whales do, pushing both sides out, at least the ones that look in the same direction as they do. I give 65% down and 35% up. I know there is a possibility of a big squeeze up, move of 400/800 points up, like we had at the 6K's. That could be what will happen, assuming i am reading it wrong. It's just not easy to read between the lines, what the plans are of the big players. that's whay they are so good and always win on the long term. Nota
I am writing my new update, hope to get it live soonNota
And a false upwards breakout, will they make a false downwards breakout as well or continue to drop? :)Nota
Something came up, but this will be the chart, probablyNota
Nota
To add, the bullish wedge you see, I drew it, but I don’t give real value to it, because I don’t like these. But just in caseNota
Just keep changing the lines, that's why TA is so great :) LOL
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