BTC retrace from 73k: Key levels to watch for clues

12 mar

This is a follow up to my call for 73k target (click).

BTC hit the Genesis fib at $72,937 and is staggering.
We took some profits and expect to reload a bit lower.
Mapped are key support levels where to place our traps.

$ 69,096 is the "Ideal Retrace" zone to previous ATH.
$ 65,255 and 65,126 should be very strong support fibs.
Other minor zones and solo fibs may offer some support.

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12 mar

Trade attivo

( (( BOOM )) )

"Ideal Retrace" achieved.

Zoom IN (1min)

GORGEOUS, see if bulls can hold it.

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12 mar

Nota

Near term view with local fibs added:

sister Genesis fibs our range holders, I
n between bulls just lost a support,
now hit or miss till 69,725

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15 mar

Nota

The drop continued to our first "Major Support" and bounced

Our "ideal Retrace" zone around 69k is now a Resistance zone.
So lets see what happens now, rejection could send us much lower.

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16 mar

Nota

Bulls have reclaimed 69k
and may have avoided 69k from become nasty resistance,

Zoom IN (m15) and add a fib of the pullback in red
So currently the red 2.618 at 70,462 is the immediate hurdle for bulls.
Just below is the Genesis Fib at 69,096 that bulls really need to hold.

It's Friday after market close at the time of this post,
so we have the entire weekend of low liquidity moves,...

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17 mar

Nota

Bounced from "Major Support" again

into our "Ideal Retrace" zone that will now be resistance.

Zoom in (m5) for a closer look at our zone

and we have a PING, confirming the lower boundary of that zone.

"Ping"=exact and violent ricochet from fib that you can almost HEAR.

My rule: "Not all Pings start a Reversal, but Most reversals Start with a Ping"

So it is VERY POSSIBLE we have "high of day" here,
currently Sunday afternoon before Asia market open.
This zone should hold until US open on Monday. lets see.

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19 mar

Nota

Retrace continues

Lost "Major" support at 65.25, fell to a "Minor" support at 62.8

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Zoom in (m1) for a closer look

Zone was pierced twice and deeper the second time.
So it is unlikely this will hold, but maybe a little bounce.

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19 mar

Nota

Since last update, we bounced on that "minor support"

and smacked into the former "Major support" at 65.255

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Zoom in (m1) with some notes added:

Bounce from "minor support" went nicely.
"Genesis fib" at 65,255 and key barrier here.
Currently bouncing off a "minor local fib"

Time to "fibulate" (lol) the last move, to project targets.

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20 mar

Nota

Bottom in?

Spectacular bounce off the Genesis fib at 61,256.44.
Blew through its sister fib and first major hurdle at 65,255.

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Zoom IN (m3) and adding a fib for last bounce wave

points to a target of 69k, or to be precise 69,278.18

All in all I think "bottom is in".

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21 mar

Nota

Back down to our "Major Support" around 65.25k


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Zoom IN (m1) around that Major Support zone

It is defined by a Genesis fib plus a Covid Stimulus fib (a Golden ratio)
So this is a very strong and important zone of Bitcoin's life.

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22 mar

Nota

Still exploring this key zone from last snapshot

exit either way needs watching carefully

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22 mar

Nota

We fell out of the "Major" support at 65.25 and into a "Minor" support at 62.8k

This is now a KEY support, defending the Genesis fib at 61,256.

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Zoom in (m5)

Clean bounce starting, but at first possible hurdle already, sister of our bouncer.

See if we can bounce back up to retest 65.25k.

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23 mar

Nota

Our "Minor support" at 62.8k held a second hit

although it was pierced the second time, not a good sign.
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Zoom in (m1) for a closer look at the second bounce:

Initially pierced but subsequent bounce off bottom bound was exact.
If this was the first bounce off this minor support, it would be ok.
But a second bounce only after being pierced is not a good sign.
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24 mar

Nota

Back up into the "Major support" above 65,255

Second attempt by bulls to take this zone.
This is at risk of becoming a major resistance.

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Zoom in (m5) for a closer look at the zone

Perfect "Pings" on both boundaries of the zone.
Bulls must hold "Genesis" fib at 65,255
Bears must hod "Covid Stim" at 65,897

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29 mar

Nota

Back above 69k

Sitting on our Genesis fib at 69,096

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Zoom IN (m5)

We have a PING (exact ricochet) that confirms and announces the fib to the whole world.

And what follows a Ping? I say to myself:
"Not all Pings start a Reversal, but Most reversals Start with a Ping"

ie: Perhaps the best chance for bulls to shove off this fib this weekend.

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30 mar

Nota

Thus my enthusiasm for Pings

In follow op to last snap shot above, where the Ping was first noted.

Again, this may or may not be a "reversal",
but IF it is anywhere nearby, then THIS is it.

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31 mar

Nota

Again: Thus my enthusiasm for Pings:

That Ping on the Genesis fib at 69.096 sent us all the way back up to the local fib at 71,023

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