2024-08-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls are absolutely fumbling it and their chances of going above 70000 again are below 25% imo. The best they can pray for right now is to stay above 62300 and the 50% pb, so the bull gap stays open and they trade sideways between 62300 - 68000. If market drops below 62300, we are most likely already in the next bear leg down and this one will get below 50000 and afterwards we won’t get above 65000 again.
current market cycle: trading range / if 62300 is broken, it’s a new bear trend
key levels: 53000 - 72000
bull case: Bulls need to keep it above 62300, that’s it. Their first target is then to break above the bear channel and get consecutive closes above the 2h 20ema. If they manage that, bears might give up and bulls can retest 70000 again. As of now, very low probability that bulls reverse this.
Invalidation is below 62300.
bear case: Bears making lower lows and lower highs, that’s all there currently is to it. They formed a proper channel down and as long as that holds, they are in control. Below 62000 the selling will accelerate.
Invalidation is above 67000.
short term: Neutral. Uber bearish below 62300 and bullish above 67000.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Strong breakout on bar 20, had to get short while it formed because it was so strong and closed below the previous 50 bars. Second best trade was a short against the 1h 20ema bar 15. Entry should have been 1 tick below bar 14.
comment: Bulls are absolutely fumbling it and their chances of going above 70000 again are below 25% imo. The best they can pray for right now is to stay above 62300 and the 50% pb, so the bull gap stays open and they trade sideways between 62300 - 68000. If market drops below 62300, we are most likely already in the next bear leg down and this one will get below 50000 and afterwards we won’t get above 65000 again.
current market cycle: trading range / if 62300 is broken, it’s a new bear trend
key levels: 53000 - 72000
bull case: Bulls need to keep it above 62300, that’s it. Their first target is then to break above the bear channel and get consecutive closes above the 2h 20ema. If they manage that, bears might give up and bulls can retest 70000 again. As of now, very low probability that bulls reverse this.
Invalidation is below 62300.
bear case: Bears making lower lows and lower highs, that’s all there currently is to it. They formed a proper channel down and as long as that holds, they are in control. Below 62000 the selling will accelerate.
Invalidation is above 67000.
short term: Neutral. Uber bearish below 62300 and bullish above 67000.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Strong breakout on bar 20, had to get short while it formed because it was so strong and closed below the previous 50 bars. Second best trade was a short against the 1h 20ema bar 15. Entry should have been 1 tick below bar 14.
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