July's Falling Column
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The current action seen today spurting up to 6320 and then plummeting quickly down to 6200 clued me into the action seen in the last 48 hours as an ABCDE symmetrical triangle. Elliot Waves shows E up top which leads to downwards action coming out of it. In general triangles are seen as waves 2 and 4. I had been thinking the intermediate degree of trend was just a zig zag, but the triangle leads me to believe it is wave 2 and so BTC would have 3, 4, and 5 left.
BTC's cycle midpoint on June 28 started the onset of the upward wedge bounce upwards as the cycle midpoint. BTC is now seeking out a lower low at the cycle end point of July 28th. I am seeing July as a 5 wave downward column. I am seeing the apex of BTC's current triangle wave 2 as hitting the top resistance line of the column at 6300. As you can see the trend line with the apex hits at 4800 on July 28th. You can also see a clear support at that level looking back at the fall of 2017.
I have wave 3 at 1.618 of wave 1. Wave 4 at .236 of wave 3, and Wave 5 at .786 of wave 1.
I will post an closeup image of wave 2 for the current triangle in the updates below.
BTC's cycle midpoint on June 28 started the onset of the upward wedge bounce upwards as the cycle midpoint. BTC is now seeking out a lower low at the cycle end point of July 28th. I am seeing July as a 5 wave downward column. I am seeing the apex of BTC's current triangle wave 2 as hitting the top resistance line of the column at 6300. As you can see the trend line with the apex hits at 4800 on July 28th. You can also see a clear support at that level looking back at the fall of 2017.
I have wave 3 at 1.618 of wave 1. Wave 4 at .236 of wave 3, and Wave 5 at .786 of wave 1.
I will post an closeup image of wave 2 for the current triangle in the updates below.
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Here is the close up of the current BTC triangle which I have as wave 2.
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Wave 2 is an abc flat 3,3,5.Nota
You can place an effective short position at the current market value with a very tight stop loss just above the 6450 resistance line. That resistance is the bottom of the triangle of 2018. If it manages to enter back into the triangle I do not think it would be a wave 2 corrective wave.
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It’s forming a bear wick on the upper trend of the column.
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This is a point of indecision. It’s either a complex correction taking an unexpected path, or an ugly impulse. The ugly impulse is confirmed at breaching he neckline at 6835. That invalidates the corrective wave count and confirms a head and shoulders pattern, minimum price expectation would be 7800.
The current spike happened I drop exactly at .618 retrace and so a lower low is still expected.
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Pull back at the .786 now. Will it make it to 6835, or is this a flame out of buyers before a mega sell off bear run?
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I think this could be the count. It would mean bearish impulse waves would commence soon. It would allow for a lower low at the end of the cycle and have it so the head and shoulders is not confirmed. It makes C .618 of A. It matches with Fibonacci on each of the subwaves down to micro degree.
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