$BTC Weekly Chart Analysis

BTC Weekly Chart Analysis (All numbers in USD)
Current Price: $85,194
Timeframe: Weekly – my preferred timeframe for long swing trades or investment theses

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Bull Case 🟢

To reignite bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs to:
1. Break above the 0.382 Fib @ $87,303
2. Follow through by breaking the 20-Week Moving Average @ $92,496

If both of these levels are cleared, I believe we’ll be heading back toward All-Time Highs ($109K) fairly quickly. I currently assign 50% odds to this scenario.

Above those levels, we enter new price discovery, which would require a fresh analysis.

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Bear Case 🔴 (Also 50% odds overall)

⚠️ First Lines of Support:
• 50-Week MA @ $77,321
• 0.382 Fib @ $73,783
→ 30% odds of retesting this level.

It’s possible the market ranges between 87K and 73K for a while, which would actually be bullish long-term — allowing BTC to build a strong support base through accumulation.

🛑 Second Major Support (Very Strong):
• Multi-year Cup & Handle Breakout Zone
• Strong Volume Shelf
• 0.5 Fib @ $62,855
→ 20% odds of reaching this.

If we do test this level, I believe it’s very unlikely to break below.

🚨 Final Support Warning:
• 48K = Critical level
→ <1% odds of reaching
A break below would signal the end of the bull cycle in my view.

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Final Thoughts

As Bitcoin is a non-producing asset with no fundamentals or balance sheet to anchor it, all of this is purely price action-driven — so I won’t assign timelines to these scenarios.

📌 Personally, I do not hold any BTC currently. With the odds at 50/50, the risk-reward doesn’t appeal to me right now — I see better opportunities elsewhere. However, I’ll reconsider if the bullish breakout scenario plays out.

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Hope this breakdown helps! Make sure to adjust your strategy based on your own risk tolerance.