Repeat of pattern; possible bottom scenarios for BTC
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So, i'd like to draw a comparison to the last time BTC broke the 4h 200moving average; in mid november.
We see a very similar pattern here two.
5 waves up, followed by an A-B-C correction, followed by a bounce an a simle two-wave correction to higher lows; a bullish continuation.
This scenario is not yet out of the window to be repeated.
(We are ofcourse headed to what may well be a head and shoulders bulltrap that will see us back down to 8thousand USD in bitcoin, But:)
We might retest the 0.5 fib from the last low - which in a lovely harmony is drawn from the very bottom of the same november dip to the All-time-high last week - and continue higher from there, just as we have done in November, before we broke out to the upside of the log-scale channel so famously pointed out by peterbrandt (sp?) at the time.
So, i'm tempted to say: Short it here and cover at 12610. Then see if we make the same mistake again - rallying to an ATH - or if we continue higher like human beings with battlescars, or , if we drop down further - but at least you didn't hodl for *all* of that.
Confirmation? If it bounces above 12610 and holds, and then a 4h close above the 200MA after the 2-wave correction from that bounce. Just like it did in november.
Counter-indication? If we fail to hold 12610, or if the bounce off of it doesn't bring us back above the 4h 200, or if the correction from that bounces closes and remains below it.
We see a very similar pattern here two.
5 waves up, followed by an A-B-C correction, followed by a bounce an a simle two-wave correction to higher lows; a bullish continuation.
This scenario is not yet out of the window to be repeated.
(We are ofcourse headed to what may well be a head and shoulders bulltrap that will see us back down to 8thousand USD in bitcoin, But:)
We might retest the 0.5 fib from the last low - which in a lovely harmony is drawn from the very bottom of the same november dip to the All-time-high last week - and continue higher from there, just as we have done in November, before we broke out to the upside of the log-scale channel so famously pointed out by peterbrandt (sp?) at the time.
So, i'm tempted to say: Short it here and cover at 12610. Then see if we make the same mistake again - rallying to an ATH - or if we continue higher like human beings with battlescars, or , if we drop down further - but at least you didn't hodl for *all* of that.
Confirmation? If it bounces above 12610 and holds, and then a 4h close above the 200MA after the 2-wave correction from that bounce. Just like it did in november.
Counter-indication? If we fail to hold 12610, or if the bounce off of it doesn't bring us back above the 4h 200, or if the correction from that bounces closes and remains below it.
Nota
Ofcourse a closeup of the events in early to mid november reveals another, far more likely picture: Of how after a foolishly fomo-fed all-time-high and a head-and-shoulders pattern, BTC/USD crashed down hard, bounced off the 0.5 fib of the last move to a bulltrap onto the 0.618, only to continue even lower to the 0.868 of the same move. Where would that put us today?
Nota
7164.Nota
Hourly 15 was resistance, now tentative support. The bulltrap is still underway
Nota
This idea from back in november has some trendlines that might be relevant to the scenario's we're looking at here.
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click for a zoomable chart.Nota
So far we touched the exact fib level I indicated as support earlier and have indeed continued higher. It's a little early to call it finished, for that I would need to see it retest a bullish trendline.Nota
Yeah, good, we're in another upswing for now. Repeat of pattern is on.Nota
We'll do another two waves higher, or a two wave correction before turning higher.Nota
Correction has started.Nota
for the moment, a 4h close above the 200 moving average is still just a correction. 
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