First off this time is not different. It's all same, all market psychology. After all, we are human beings with similar greed and fear.
Why you may ask?
Simple Reasons:
1) Market will go through a disinflationary bust. Every asset will regress to its mean value or below.
2) S1F and S2F models don't take into factor black swan events like this and I believe in lengthening cycle theory with the same price prediction.
3) Something unexpected happened in the market in the last few weeks. Euphoria is over the top: overleveraged, overhyped, overbought.
4) Crypto market is still highly correlated with the equity market because of liquidity/ high volume.
5) DXY and bonds are breaking out to the upside. Crypto is inversely correlated to bonds and USD.
When?
- I don't have my crystal ball with me right now, but my intuition tells me soon. I may be wrong but in the coming weeks or two months.
How to survive?
- Set tight stop losses on all your long-term holdings.
- OR Sell everything.
- Buy bonds.
I didn't want to publish anything this year as I explained in my last post, but this is important and I don't want anyone to lose everything you gained so far.
Why you may ask?
Simple Reasons:
1) Market will go through a disinflationary bust. Every asset will regress to its mean value or below.
2) S1F and S2F models don't take into factor black swan events like this and I believe in lengthening cycle theory with the same price prediction.
3) Something unexpected happened in the market in the last few weeks. Euphoria is over the top: overleveraged, overhyped, overbought.
4) Crypto market is still highly correlated with the equity market because of liquidity/ high volume.
5) DXY and bonds are breaking out to the upside. Crypto is inversely correlated to bonds and USD.
When?
- I don't have my crystal ball with me right now, but my intuition tells me soon. I may be wrong but in the coming weeks or two months.
How to survive?
- Set tight stop losses on all your long-term holdings.
- OR Sell everything.
- Buy bonds.
I didn't want to publish anything this year as I explained in my last post, but this is important and I don't want anyone to lose everything you gained so far.
Nota
prnt.sc/ylkftyStock2Flow model. How I believe it would react in the face of a black swan!
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Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.