$BTCUSD holds steady around shortterm POC $27k but how for long?

25 apr 2023

The macro trend for BTCUSD is..

And this publish looks at the Intermediary Wave 4 in further detail by studying the characteristics of Minor Wave 5.

Here are the 2 possible scenarios to play out in the days and weeks to come:

Scenario 1
Intermediary Wave 4 is not yet completed, despite touching 0.328 retracements, and will play out in a triangle, as Waves 4 usually do.

This means Minor Wave 5 will break down further, possibly towards 0.328 fib targets of 26.4k.

This is the stronger scenario that I will lean on.

Scenario 2
Intermediary Wave 4 is completed, aka Minor Wave 5 is also completed.

This means Intermediary Wave 5 is underway, aka Minor Wave 1 is also on its way.

Aka we've seen the bottom for the year, although I do not lean towards this scenario, here's one for cautious optimism.

• Sidenote 0: Divergence on the shorter timeframes. Volatility.
  
• Sidenote 1: Waves 1 are typically motive/impulse waves accompanied by cautious exuberance, but the news is rather stale at the moment. Dullness.
  
• Sidenote 2: As of pixel time, Coinbase COIN is sueing SEC for lack of regularity clarity. It's scary time indeed. Uncertainty.
  
• Sidenote 3: FOMC meeting in 8 days and 84% (today) expectations that we'll see 500bp for the first time since 2017. Sell pressure.
  
• Sidenote 4: Last month saw the Mt Gox BTC redemptions which will go on until near end of year. Sell pressure.
  
• Sidenote 5: China is smiling at crypto again, while Binance lifts its Russian restrictions. Bullish.
  

27 apr 2023

Nota

I realise that my waves count has an inaccuracy -- it's labelled as Minor Waves 1-5 down, when in actual it should be a Minor Wave A down, and Minute Waves 1-5 instead.

A little rusty coming back from the dead, but I will update this idea in another new publish, especially as we saw a violent move to the upside, announcing the arrival of Minor Wave B.