Bitcoin Daily Update (day 298)
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
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Consensio: P > S MA > M MA > L MA = Fully bullish & full entry signaled
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | The lack of follow through over the last couple days made me reconsider the symmetrical triangle and I think it is still in tact. | Inverse h&s in unconvincing due to declining volume in right shoulder. Nevertheless I prefer a stop order > $4,156 opposed to entering now.
Horizontals: R: $4,066 | S: $3,936
Trendline: Symmetrical triangle
Parabolic SAR: $4,156
BTCUSDSHORTS: This is the most bearish indicator to me right now. Almost back to support and the price hasn’t gone anywhere in response.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0013%
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.5% difference between near and long term. This is the most bullish indicator for me right now, but be careful it can change at any moment.
TD’ Sequential: G3 < G2 that never got above the G1.
Ichimoku Cloud: Look at how that price is following the edge of the cloud. Amazing!
Average Directional Index: Starting to turn up. I believe that the next couple days will present very good opportunities and that it is important to be prepared to go long or short depending on: if we can close > $4,150 or we close < $3,875 and / or see the market enter Contango.
Price Action: 24h: -1.3% | 2w: -1.5% | 1m: +15.6%
Bollinger Bands: I am amazed by how fast it squeezed over the last 3 days.
Relative Strength Index: Busted through 50
Stochastic Oscillator: Continues to head towards overbought territory as the price pulls back. Kind of like the shorts pulling back and the price pulling back too.
Summary: I am convinced that we are going to see some volatility very soon and I am prepared to trade in either direction. I still have a small long open and a stop buy order at $4,178 that would more than double the position. I am using the March expiry because the June contract hasn’t had enough time to develop the same pattern and therefore the risk / entry were more ambiguous.
I also still have my stop order to buy ETH:USD at $160.20. I also have my eye on LTC:USD. It broke through the bear channel and is threatening to breakout out of the cloud following a bullish kumo twist.
Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled - first brought to my attention by @MustStopMurad. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome.
However if you want this bear market to end then you do not want a multi week dead cat bounce from here. That will only prolong the process, similar to drinking away a hangover with Bloody Mary's on a Sunday morning after having too much to drink on Saturday night. You don't want to go to work hungover and drinking more alcohol is not going to make you feel better for long!
This is not the bottom and we are so close. If we breakdown from here then it would be a prime opportunity to capitulate down to $1,000 before anyone knew what hit them. That is how you find a bottom. This is how you get a whale to panic sell the bottom and then watch the price bounce 2X right in their face.
If the market breaks down then I will wait for Consensio to signal an entry opposed to waiting with a stop entry. A close below $3,850 would do the trick if it is soon. I would also be watching closely for the market to re enter Contango. That will provide very good confirmation and could have an impact on my position sizing.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P > S MA > M MA > L MA = Fully bullish & full entry signaled
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | The lack of follow through over the last couple days made me reconsider the symmetrical triangle and I think it is still in tact. | Inverse h&s in unconvincing due to declining volume in right shoulder. Nevertheless I prefer a stop order > $4,156 opposed to entering now.
Horizontals: R: $4,066 | S: $3,936
Trendline: Symmetrical triangle
Parabolic SAR: $4,156
BTCUSDSHORTS: This is the most bearish indicator to me right now. Almost back to support and the price hasn’t gone anywhere in response.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0013%
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.5% difference between near and long term. This is the most bullish indicator for me right now, but be careful it can change at any moment.
TD’ Sequential: G3 < G2 that never got above the G1.
Ichimoku Cloud: Look at how that price is following the edge of the cloud. Amazing!
Average Directional Index: Starting to turn up. I believe that the next couple days will present very good opportunities and that it is important to be prepared to go long or short depending on: if we can close > $4,150 or we close < $3,875 and / or see the market enter Contango.
Price Action: 24h: -1.3% | 2w: -1.5% | 1m: +15.6%
Bollinger Bands: I am amazed by how fast it squeezed over the last 3 days.
Relative Strength Index: Busted through 50
Stochastic Oscillator: Continues to head towards overbought territory as the price pulls back. Kind of like the shorts pulling back and the price pulling back too.
Summary: I am convinced that we are going to see some volatility very soon and I am prepared to trade in either direction. I still have a small long open and a stop buy order at $4,178 that would more than double the position. I am using the March expiry because the June contract hasn’t had enough time to develop the same pattern and therefore the risk / entry were more ambiguous.
I also still have my stop order to buy ETH:USD at $160.20. I also have my eye on LTC:USD. It broke through the bear channel and is threatening to breakout out of the cloud following a bullish kumo twist.
Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled - first brought to my attention by @MustStopMurad. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome.
However if you want this bear market to end then you do not want a multi week dead cat bounce from here. That will only prolong the process, similar to drinking away a hangover with Bloody Mary's on a Sunday morning after having too much to drink on Saturday night. You don't want to go to work hungover and drinking more alcohol is not going to make you feel better for long!
This is not the bottom and we are so close. If we breakdown from here then it would be a prime opportunity to capitulate down to $1,000 before anyone knew what hit them. That is how you find a bottom. This is how you get a whale to panic sell the bottom and then watch the price bounce 2X right in their face.
If the market breaks down then I will wait for Consensio to signal an entry opposed to waiting with a stop entry. A close below $3,850 would do the trick if it is soon. I would also be watching closely for the market to re enter Contango. That will provide very good confirmation and could have an impact on my position sizing.
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