Bitcoin Daily Update (day 290)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634


Previous analysis: “There is a lot of resistance from $3,750 - $4,150”
Position: Short EOSH19 from 0.0006463 | Long LTCZ18 from 0.00795

Patterns: Will be watching for a c&h | Phase 7 hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,750 - $4,000 appears to be support,
BTCUSDSHORTS: Haven’t even really started to pull back, tells me there is still a lot of room for this bounce to go
Funding Rates: longs receive 0.0124%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Crossed 33 MA
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Posturing for golden cross
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Starting to show signs of losing momentum
Overall trend: This is where the 33 MA is expected to act as a magnet due to the downward angle. It takes time to reverse a trend that strong.
Volume: Very impressive buying volume.
Candlestick analysis: Blew out the shooting star from yesterday that I thought could be the top.
Ichimoku Cloud: Close above Kijun-Sen instead of getting a Kijun bounce
TD’ Sequential: G5
Visible Range: High volume node from $3,750 - $4,450 is being tested
Price action: 24h: +4.7% | 2w: -7.3% | 1m: -35.2%
Bollinger Bands: Tested the top band
Trendline: Watch for higher low to create new trendline
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bullish
Parabolic SAR: $3,201
RSI: Bull div’ did a great job, but it was diving for so long that you would have needed a wide stop loss
Stochastic: Reaching overbought levels


Summary: I was not at all impressed with this bounce until today. The volume behind today’s move tells me that we could be in for 4 - 6 weeks to the upside. If we breakthrough the high volume node at $4,500 then I will be expecting for a $6,000 retest.

If that does happen then it will be the best short of the year. The longer support holds up the longer it will hold the price down when it becomes resistance.

Eventhough I am impressed with this move I am certainly not thinking that was a bottom. I heard the word capitulation thrown around a lot on Twitter and Youtube, by some prominent names, however that is not what that was.

It did not have any of the characteristics: higher volume dragonfly / hammer, panic on social media, FUD in the news. None of it was there. All that happened was a descending triangle broke down and came within a whisker of reaching it’s $3,000 target.

I would be interested in longing in the next week if the price pulls back and into a golden cross while the 33 MA flattens out. That is one of my ideal entries. LTC:BTC is a great example right now, and I was more than happy to open a long there while waiting to see what happens with Bitcoin.