Preface This analysis is based on historical price action. Since BTC only had a couple of cycles before, the data presented is based on just a few observations. Furthermore, this analysis will use calculations based on a mathematical model based on these few observations.
TLDR/Summary at the bottom.
Goal of this analysis In this analysis I'm going to take an attempt at making an educated guesss at when Bitcoin will top, and around which value it will top. With the information at hand, I'm reasonably certain that this is one of the best forecasts currently on the market.
Indicators and Assumptions The first indicator on the chart is the Bitcoin Logarithmic Bands indicator, a personally made indicator which tries to calculate a Bitcoin top during a certain time frame by calculating a bottom and top band within BTC will top. More information below:
The second indicator (or better said, assumption) that we use is the fact that Bitcoin has previously always topped between 34 - 47 weeks AFTER closing a weekly candle above the previous all-time high. I came to this conclusion after making this analysis below:
Making the calculation 34 weeks after the 4th of March = 28th of October. 47 weeks after the 4th of March = 27th January.
If the above will remain true for this cycle, we can expect Bitcoin to top between October 28th 2024 and 27th of January 2025.
Now that we know the dates, we can also easily calculate the values. Naturally, we assume that the Bitcoin Logarithmic bands indicator will hold.
(rounded for readability) 28-10-2024 lower band: 135.000$ 28-10-2024 top band: 195.000$ 27-01-2025 lower band: 144.000$ 27-01-2025 top band: 208.000$
Summary Based on the "New ATH to Top" model and the "Bitcoin Logarithmic Bands" model, we calculated that Bitcoin will top between 28-10-2024 and 27-01-2025, with a value between 135.000$ and 208.000$.
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