Inside month bear break! Short it to the ground!
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Charles Ponzi here.
You might have read in the Fitchburg Sentinel of July 31, 1920 I would not reveal my business secrets.
Well today, nearly 97 years and 11 months later, I finally decided to let you know my secret.
It is going with the trend and looking at signals that work out very often, and looking at high time frames, the higher the TF the better the signal.
And inside monthly candles work all the time, I did not bother checking, but they work at least 90% of the time for sure.
Here are a few examples:
Let's look at the most traded stock these past weeks (I think volume is about 10 billion / day lol):
You can check stock volumes here: nasdaq.com/g00/markets/most-active.aspx
Their site is under maintenance now...
Well I know Micron tech is in the top let's look at it.
I think, I did not verify this but I am using common sense, the longer something consolidates, the more powerful the move will be.
All the traders that quit crypto, as we got to a point of EXTREME boredom that past week (even Dan TheChartGuys gave up on crypto & he spent all of 2017 relentlessly trading it :p).
That point of extreme boredom it just cannot get more boring so what does it do? It explodes.
I think, personal opinion, we get to ~ 3500 in 1 month.
Oh I am long now, testing new signals, I think we might go up a bit, before jumping throught the window.
But best go with the trend, EVERYTHING is pointing down. I am long but I know what I am doing (well no I do not know what I am doing technically, just experimenting), I know I am risking very very little here. Like 50-100$, more like paper trading if you ask me.
You do not need to trade every single move, maybe it is better to just go with the trend & on possible trend reversal avoid a stock / future / BTC until the picture gets clearer. Less stress more wins...
With that short thought, could be wrong, but I think the odds are very very high that we go down. But a fake scam bump up is not impossible before going down, even all the way to ~7200 next week is possible.
So watch out!
If we go there I do not know what to do. Short 5, 6 or 7 figures? lololo :p
Finally the volatility is coming back, maybe? Hurray!
Back in the game!
* Pulling random numbers out of my nose I would say this long term (4 months) tightening break has a 90% chance of success going down.
You might have read in the Fitchburg Sentinel of July 31, 1920 I would not reveal my business secrets.
Well today, nearly 97 years and 11 months later, I finally decided to let you know my secret.
It is going with the trend and looking at signals that work out very often, and looking at high time frames, the higher the TF the better the signal.
And inside monthly candles work all the time, I did not bother checking, but they work at least 90% of the time for sure.
Here are a few examples:
Let's look at the most traded stock these past weeks (I think volume is about 10 billion / day lol):
You can check stock volumes here: nasdaq.com/g00/markets/most-active.aspx
Their site is under maintenance now...
Well I know Micron tech is in the top let's look at it.
I think, I did not verify this but I am using common sense, the longer something consolidates, the more powerful the move will be.
All the traders that quit crypto, as we got to a point of EXTREME boredom that past week (even Dan TheChartGuys gave up on crypto & he spent all of 2017 relentlessly trading it :p).
That point of extreme boredom it just cannot get more boring so what does it do? It explodes.
I think, personal opinion, we get to ~ 3500 in 1 month.
Oh I am long now, testing new signals, I think we might go up a bit, before jumping throught the window.
But best go with the trend, EVERYTHING is pointing down. I am long but I know what I am doing (well no I do not know what I am doing technically, just experimenting), I know I am risking very very little here. Like 50-100$, more like paper trading if you ask me.
You do not need to trade every single move, maybe it is better to just go with the trend & on possible trend reversal avoid a stock / future / BTC until the picture gets clearer. Less stress more wins...
With that short thought, could be wrong, but I think the odds are very very high that we go down. But a fake scam bump up is not impossible before going down, even all the way to ~7200 next week is possible.
So watch out!
If we go there I do not know what to do. Short 5, 6 or 7 figures? lololo :p
Finally the volatility is coming back, maybe? Hurray!
Back in the game!
* Pulling random numbers out of my nose I would say this long term (4 months) tightening break has a 90% chance of success going down.
Nota
Got 3 areas where I would consider shorting:6700
7000
7700
Would really not be surprised to see the typical fools FOMO and push the price to 7700 or a bit more.
Me? On these 3 levels I short it, scale a bit if it gets higher 1-3%, lock in profit on a few hundred bucks retrace and keep some in, in case that is the top, if it is not I close and look to reopen higher, unless I see something like this:
Nota
Watch out for the big pump.Bottom shorters pretty shy this time? They got slapped and calmed down, or maybe it's simply less traders are interested.
Just don't go all gold on me.
Nota
Nota
20% up = about 700050% up = oh come on
30% bounce seems big yet realistic.
Nota
I received funding on my long lol.I am closing half of my long on 6450.
If I am to open new short positions, I want at least 7000!
It might retrace or even go down before that, on MA20 + that previous high for example, but because of the bullish divergence I am cautious. Oh and some people will see a triple bottom, but alot of traders and bagholders (if /biz etc are to be trusted which they are not but you can tell anyway) are not falling for it this time and they are waiting for a pump and "bullish confirmation".
A 30% move up, to around 7700-7800, would be just PERFECT.
For 3 reasons:
* It is 30% & makes sense looking at other bullish divergence pumps,
* 30% is less than 55% which was less than 100% (looking at bitmex) ==> weaker and weaker bounces.
* It's the 0.618 fib of wave (3) while (1) went to 0.382 only.
* Weekly MA50 is there.
! But there is a trendline to beat to go all the way up. Either we move up so wlowly the trendline will be at 7700 by the time we get there, or we break above it just as we broke above the previous one...
Picture about these fibs:
WMA50 pretty high now... almost 8000. Probably gets overcut.
Trendlines:
Nota
Back in the days organic pumps were supported by thousands of Bitcoin pumps.Now? 84. EIGHTY FOUR.
Anyone could solo pump the price at that point...
Pepperidge farm remembers.
C'mon keep going , make daddy rich!
==> Not shorting it on my lowest zone, because of the RSI divergence.
If/When BTC goes past idk 6700 maybe, I will look at EW and Fib and see where I want to short it (short term) and only swing trade if it goes to 7800 (already got positions short from 8550 & 7850 ;) ).
Nota
* Correction, on Bitfinex it is 700. Not that small.Nevermind.
Nota
Prepare to get your mind blown...youtube.com/watch?v=1KtuChfoH88
Nota
(too early too small here ... but still...)
Unlike.... Something built to last... all bounces have same magnitude
They're after us!
Nota
Works too...Will take profit on my shorts when it gets to 5000 to reshort higher.
Better not get trolled & it bounces on 5101.
Nota
If you have not heard, 250 million Tether got printed.You know what's next.
Nota
I am not sure it will be 10.000 or 11/12.000 hopefully we will see an indication that it is time to close longs and short.I think with 95% certainty it goes that high (at least 10k).
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