We have reached the old ATH too early in the cycle and have been stuck in a consolidation for almost 6 months since then. This can end with a crash now. A final shakeout before the next wave up.
The situation is similar to 2019 - early 2020. Too high too early, then a long boring consolidation period, and finally a crash (triggered by COVID). The difference is that it happened in an earlier phase of the cycle.
October is statistically a bullish or neutral month in a bull run, so it's likely to happen either in September or November.
My target is 40K but a wick can be expected to reach as low as the 30K area. It's likely that we'll get a fast recovery so it's important to have a plan and act decisively.
The situation is similar to 2019 - early 2020. Too high too early, then a long boring consolidation period, and finally a crash (triggered by COVID). The difference is that it happened in an earlier phase of the cycle.
October is statistically a bullish or neutral month in a bull run, so it's likely to happen either in September or November.
My target is 40K but a wick can be expected to reach as low as the 30K area. It's likely that we'll get a fast recovery so it's important to have a plan and act decisively.
Nota
Going to close my shorts in 46-50K area if we get there this month.Nota
Why I think it's not likely to crash to significantly lower prices anymore:- Wave 4 corrections tend to retrace no more than 38-50%.
- The blue trend line gives support in the same area. This is a strong macro trend line going back to 2011.
- 0.786 retracement from the bottom is at 50K. In past cycles, Bitcoin has always held this level as support after breaking it as resistance.
Nota
I noticed BTC likes to do this pattern, nosediving and then quickly recovering at the end of corrections. This is the most bearish scenario I expect at the moment, this means that I consider the crash that I showed in the first chart of this post a low probability scenario now.Also whether something like this happens or not, I don't really care since I'm long on some bullish altcoins while simultaneously having a short position on the whole market in the form of COIN put options for protection.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.