BitcoinLong
BTCUSD: Setup to break the 4H SMA 200
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Bitcoin’s 200-period four-hour SMA has been a major support in the bull run of BTC since the lows of 2022. Only during the largest corrections has the price traded below this indicator.
With the latest correction from the fifth wave, the support failed and it has since acted as a resistance. In the last day, the line has prevented further gains past 67,200 twice.
On a shorter timeframe, the 15-minute SMA 200 has been a strong support of the recent trend up.
Both moving averages are now on a collision course, as is seen in this chart by the barrier triangle in red.
Barrier triangles are usually exited on the horizontal side. A break past this line should provide a rapid impulse up.
However, the area above is also defended by the R1 and R2 Fibonacci pivot point resistance levels.
The trade should be entered either above the triangle, or above the R-levels.
With the latest correction from the fifth wave, the support failed and it has since acted as a resistance. In the last day, the line has prevented further gains past 67,200 twice.
On a shorter timeframe, the 15-minute SMA 200 has been a strong support of the recent trend up.
Both moving averages are now on a collision course, as is seen in this chart by the barrier triangle in red.
Barrier triangles are usually exited on the horizontal side. A break past this line should provide a rapid impulse up.
However, the area above is also defended by the R1 and R2 Fibonacci pivot point resistance levels.
The trade should be entered either above the triangle, or above the R-levels.
Nota
The wave count here is four. The fourth wave is probably finished in depth, since wave one is close underneath. Fib projection for wave five lands right on the read upper trendline, so the fifth may not be good enough to get past the area. But the larger parent wave is a third wave which helps with momentum. So I expect some more action in this area before a final breakout.Nota
BTC has started the attack in earnest. The possible target of the fifth wave was lifted a bit by a triangle correction in wave B of wave 4. In wave five, BTC built a 1-2 sequence, followed by a nice push to the upside that pierced through the R1 level.Nota
The 15-minute SMA was really too weak to take on the 4-hour SMA and there was not enough room to gather momentum for breaking upward. BTC pulled back a couple thousand points in continuation of a correction of the previous wave sequence.The upward pressure is palpable, however, and it is clear that many alts are waiting to be unleashed, some of which have been pumping already by 10 to 30 per cent in anticipation. But they need the wind to go further, especially the light memes, such as WIF, SHIB, FLOKI, BONK, PEPE, OM, ONDO, and more.
Nota
After failing to break the resistance overhead, the situation appears as follows.The large drop erased about half the gains since the 59.6 k LOW last week. This raises the immediate question of a leading diagonal, and indeed we can assign it as is shown in the 12345 wedge. The correction from there is a simple abc correction, with the c wave being clearly a five-wave impulse down.
Overall, this creates a 1-2 wave sequence for the next push up, and another attempt to regain the 4H SMA 200, which is the same as the 800 hour SMA.
Nota
BTC is building up again to crack the overhead resistances, current picking at today’s pivot point. It had dropped down to the second support level, S2.Nota
So, it’s no secret that the first attempt to regain the support of the 4H SMA 200 failed with a harsh rejection to dive into one more leg of correction to about 57 k, or the 38.2% retracement level of the rise from 38,5 k to 72.7 k, which was a complete five-wave sequence.Since the beginning of May, BTC has sharply rebounded from that level to break the correction trend line, and come up against the 200-period SMA on the four-hour chart once again. Gaining that signal line as support is crucial for the bull market. In will likely take more volume of trade than a weekend can provide, so we give the market 24 to 48 hours for the task. Today it has been locked between the Fib pivot point resistance levels R1 and R2 of the day.
Carpe diem!
Nota
As the weekend progressed, we saw the 200 SMA on the 4-hour chart dropping down a bit, causing quite some hesitation in choppy trading in the BTC trajectory.But suddenly this has been resolved in a wild spike upwards above the 65000 mark, leaving the average behind. This is a major confirmation for bullish sentiment and continuation to higher pricing.
Nota
The trend line break was a fifth wave, which requires a correction of the advance, so we saw a pullback to below the MA again. Let’s see whether the second time goes a little farther and turns the MA into support.The entire advance so far from the recent bottom at 57 k to this top was 15.9% in exactly 5 days time.
Nota
After a lot of churning and hard work against the strength of bears BTC has finally found its groove, and remembered where it’s supposed to be going. Toward fair value, which is around 80 k right now, based on long-term power law averages.The 4H SMA200 has been regained and much more. We can now expect it to provide support once again.
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