Bitcoin medium term outlook (2-4 weeks) is quite bearish for the following reasons
- 1 week targets would be 4600-4700
-A break of the trend line of 4700 could see us head to 4100-420
-2-4 week targets would be 3-3.5k
-Long term 1-2 months, I expect us to hit the bottom of the channel , which is around 2K area
1.TD Sequential hit 9 on the Weekly. While in strong trends it can be ignored, we have to remember that we are still in a bear market till we make a higher high, which would be roughly 6500-6800 area depending on which exchange you used. This means the TD sequential is giving us an alert on essentially counter-trend pattern, making it very strong likelihood of achieving. This was substantiated by the rally ending at the TD 9 Sequentaiil
2.Spinning Top on Weekly about to form ( closes in 1 day)
-This shows price indecision at a significant resistance.We made a very strong bullish move recently but its likely that the bullish sentiment is waning
3.Rejection by significant resistances
-We got rejected by the 21 Monthly EMA resistance
-We got rejected by the 55 Weekly EMA Resistance
-You can see this by the rejection wicks
4. Extremely overbought Stochastic RSI, and modified RSI of length 3, overbought=95, and oversold=5, shows we went past the 95 resistance RSI area and are now back below it, showing we rejected the overbought resistance area. If we were extremely bullish , we would have managed to not go back to the purple area but we have, showing a rejection
5.Contrarian Investing0Go short when others are going long and calling bull market
-Everyoen is calling this a bull market
-Retail Avg Joe heard the bitcoin buzz and is now going to buy
-Remember the Crowd is rarely right. They are only right in significant trends. The 2017 bitcoin bubble had a huge frenzy between November to December and that was PRECISELY the top. So many retail investors got burnt
6. This rally seems to be artificial/manipulated.
-According to a article titled
-This rally was pumped by this huge whale market buying.
-The article specially states " anonymous trader who recently placed $100 million USD worth of concurrent Bitcoin buy orders on Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp probably triggered a ‘frenzy’ of automated buys,"
-Essentailly after a certain price point a ton of stops got triggered. This, along with a breach of resistance likely made bots auto buy and caused this tremendous rally
-This entire rally wasn't really the retail traders and bitcoin ecosystem showing renewed interest ( this would show we are actually transitioning to a bull market ), but just a big powerful whale
-He likely bought a ton of bitcoin cheap 3-3.5k OTC, then went on the futures market and likely longed x100 ( since he knows it can only go up ). Then decided to market buy 100M on these exchanges. After a certain price, likely 4400-4500, bots took over and began a buying spree to push us higher.
-Now, this same whale will likely market sell. And since retail things its a bull market, as soon as they see a drop of more then 10% in a span of a few hours, guess what will happen ( mass panic selling )
-This whale could likely be wanting to orchestrate a mass panic sell of bitcoin by trapping tons of bitcoin long orders and retail fomo in to cause a huge capitulation
You can keep up with my trading setups at
telegram-@CryptoFuturesGroup ( Its a public group, so just type in the username and it will pop up ).
-
- 1 week targets would be 4600-4700
-A break of the trend line of 4700 could see us head to 4100-420
-2-4 week targets would be 3-3.5k
-Long term 1-2 months, I expect us to hit the bottom of the channel , which is around 2K area
1.TD Sequential hit 9 on the Weekly. While in strong trends it can be ignored, we have to remember that we are still in a bear market till we make a higher high, which would be roughly 6500-6800 area depending on which exchange you used. This means the TD sequential is giving us an alert on essentially counter-trend pattern, making it very strong likelihood of achieving. This was substantiated by the rally ending at the TD 9 Sequentaiil
2.Spinning Top on Weekly about to form ( closes in 1 day)
-This shows price indecision at a significant resistance.We made a very strong bullish move recently but its likely that the bullish sentiment is waning
3.Rejection by significant resistances
-We got rejected by the 21 Monthly EMA resistance
-We got rejected by the 55 Weekly EMA Resistance
-You can see this by the rejection wicks
4. Extremely overbought Stochastic RSI, and modified RSI of length 3, overbought=95, and oversold=5, shows we went past the 95 resistance RSI area and are now back below it, showing we rejected the overbought resistance area. If we were extremely bullish , we would have managed to not go back to the purple area but we have, showing a rejection
5.Contrarian Investing0Go short when others are going long and calling bull market
-Everyoen is calling this a bull market
-Retail Avg Joe heard the bitcoin buzz and is now going to buy
-Remember the Crowd is rarely right. They are only right in significant trends. The 2017 bitcoin bubble had a huge frenzy between November to December and that was PRECISELY the top. So many retail investors got burnt
6. This rally seems to be artificial/manipulated.
-According to a article titled
-This rally was pumped by this huge whale market buying.
-The article specially states " anonymous trader who recently placed $100 million USD worth of concurrent Bitcoin buy orders on Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp probably triggered a ‘frenzy’ of automated buys,"
-Essentailly after a certain price point a ton of stops got triggered. This, along with a breach of resistance likely made bots auto buy and caused this tremendous rally
-This entire rally wasn't really the retail traders and bitcoin ecosystem showing renewed interest ( this would show we are actually transitioning to a bull market ), but just a big powerful whale
-He likely bought a ton of bitcoin cheap 3-3.5k OTC, then went on the futures market and likely longed x100 ( since he knows it can only go up ). Then decided to market buy 100M on these exchanges. After a certain price, likely 4400-4500, bots took over and began a buying spree to push us higher.
-Now, this same whale will likely market sell. And since retail things its a bull market, as soon as they see a drop of more then 10% in a span of a few hours, guess what will happen ( mass panic selling )
-This whale could likely be wanting to orchestrate a mass panic sell of bitcoin by trapping tons of bitcoin long orders and retail fomo in to cause a huge capitulation
You can keep up with my trading setups at
telegram-@CryptoFuturesGroup ( Its a public group, so just type in the username and it will pop up ).
-
Commento:
If for some reason we decide to go up again. I would keep entering from 5030-5450. My stop loss would be 5500. At this point though a move beyond 5200 is not likely, so if you want to be more careful use 5200 as a stop