Bitcoin is sitting on a long term support. If it's gonna hold to it, then It will slowly move to uptrend cycle.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin won't be able to hold he first support, and will fall to second (lower) one. After finding this support, bitcoin could bounce really fast to the next one, do a re-test, and then organicly move upwards.
The curve in the spring shows us the halving era. Before halving we could se a pump, and then some retrace, and afterwords, uptrend, which will possibly continue until middle of 2021.
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