BTC Support Tested, Mixed Cross-TF Signals, Tactical Caution

7 ago

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Technical Overview – Summary Points
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• Momentum & context: Bullish bias confirmed on higher timeframes (1D/4H), but bearish divergences appearing from 2H downward.
  
• Major support/resistance: 114,600–115,000 and 114,667 hold as the critical zone. Key resistance: 116,900–117,000 must break for a bullish trigger.
  
• Volume: Normal on HTF. Very high volumes detected on 30min/15min during the 116,000+ resistance test (climax/reversal risk).
  
• Multi-timeframe behavior: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = “Strong Buy” from 1D to 1H, short-term sellers active below 2H (ISPD = Sell on 15min).
  

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Strategic Summary
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• Overall bias: Bullish structure preserved, but fragility evident on intraday.
  
• Opportunities: Tactical buys possible on 114,600–115,000 (stop <114,000) or strong breakout above 116,900.
  
• Risk: Clear break below 114,000 = risk of drop to 110,000. Volume climax/ISPD Sell below resistance = profit taking advised.
  
• Macro catalysts: Ongoing geopolitical news (US/Russia/China), volatility during US announcements; post-Fed digestion.
  
• Action plan: Strict monitoring of ETF flows/funding/US news. Cautious accumulation on daily/4H, short-term shorts only if confirmed by lower timeframe signals.
  

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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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1. 1D: Strong upward bias, price at major support, calm volume.
   
2. 12H/6H/4H: Robust sectorial momentum (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Strong Buy”), daily/4H supports holding, initial bearish signs on 2H/1H.
   
3. 2H/1H: Growing fragility: “Down” trend confirmed on 2H, momentum loss, buyer exhaustion visible.
   
4. 30min/15min: Very high volumes under resistance, ISPD Sell 15min: short-term correction alert. Overbought microstructure, trigger risk if rejection at 116,000–116,250.
   
5. Cross-TF summary: Market mostly “Up”, but tactical vigilance around supports, increased caution above 116,000.
   

Summary:
- Bullish structure maintained on daily/4H, but top/reversal warning signals on brief lowest TFs (15/30min).
- 114,600–115,000 pivot zone is decisive: holding = increased stabilization/accumulation probability; break = risk of extension down to 110,000.
- Active monitoring of ETF flows/funding/news is essential.

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Macro & Bitcoin Analysis (Twitter Summary)
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• Geopolitical risks remain high, US/China protectionism & Fed on hold: crypto market in wait-and-see mode.
  
• BTC broke 116k, entered low-liquidity zone; rebound remains “fragile.”
  
• ETF flows: moderate return to buying, funding neutral.
  
• Possible post-pullback accumulation signal, but needs confirmation.
  
• Strategy: swing buy on defended/major supports, strict management if short-term seller signals (volume/ISPD).
  

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Action Steps
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• Buy on 114,600–115,000 zone if confirmed by daily/4H, stop loss <114,000.
  
• Re-buy or more aggressive swing on clear breakout above 116,900–117,000.
  
• Take profits/short if clear rejection 116,000+ with volume climax/ISPD Sell.
  
• Monitor macro (US events), ETF flows, funding rate, volume behavior.
  

7 ago

Trade attivo

Macro detailled news 07/08/25 :
- US ramps up China trade war; 15% tariffs extended to Japanese imports and new India tariffs hit risk mood.
- Russian stocks rally 4.5% on potential Trump-Putin summit; safe-haven flows in play.
- SEC adopts a bullish stance on crypto staking, boosting broad sentiment.
- Industrial output plunges in Germany & Sweden; Japanese population/data underline global stagflation risk.
- US oil demand rebounds, but global sanctions keep energy markets volatile.
- Bitcoin drops below $116K, entering low-liquidity territory after holding $100K+ for 91 days.
- Whale Alert: 1,000 BTC (~$115M) leaves Bybit for unknown wallet—large players moving.
- US Bitcoin ETF inflows turn positive after a 4-day pause; institutional desks stepping back in.
- BTC funding rates cool off as post-ATH uncertainty grows; bull run faces a pause.
- Coinbase pushes for AML/zero-knowledge overhaul post-data breach; privacy debate intensifies in stablecoins.

Sentiment: Choppy optimism—macro crosswinds, but institutions circling.
Insight: Geo and regulatory headlines are stacking up. Cautious consolidation could open up the next trend.