Is Bitcoin Topping Out? Critical Levels to Watch

Since the low of $15,476 on November 21, 2022, Bitcoin has surged to an all-time high of $109,588 on January 20, 2025. That’s an incredible +608% increase over 791 days. We also hit the long-anticipated 100K mark. But for almost three months now, Bitcoin has been stuck in a range between 90K and the all-time high, showing some indecision in the market.

Looking Back: Market Structure & Trends

Bitcoin spent over 250 days consolidating between 50K and 70K before finally breaking out in November 2024, right around the U.S. election. That breakout triggered a massive rally, pushing Bitcoin to 100K in just one month. Since then, bulls and bears have been battling it out, trying to establish control over this crucial psychological level.

A look at the pitchfork tool shows that Bitcoin has been rejected at the 0.618, 0.666, and 0.786 levels multiple times while trying to push higher. Recently, we lost the median line of the pitchfork and dropped below 100K, suggesting bullish momentum is fading. The 233 SMA/EMA on the 4-hour TF as well as the 21 EMA/MA on the daily TF has also flipped into resistance, adding to the bearish pressure.

Is February Shaping Up to Be a Bearish Month?

If we compare the current cycle to the 2020 bull market, the price action looks similar, forming a top where Bitcoin struggles to break higher. February could bring a healthy correction before any new leg up.

Key Support Zones & Confluences

Here’s where we could see solid support:

1. Unfilled CME Gap at $77,930 – Historically, Bitcoin tends to fill these gaps over time
   
2. Pitchfork Lower Support Line (~80K) – If Bitcoin drops, this level aligns with multiple confluences by late February or early March
   
3. Fib Speed Fan (0.618 from 50K to ATH) – Perfectly lines up with the pitchfork lower support around 80K
4. Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension (1.618) – Another confluence at the 79K mark
   
5. Fib Retracement (0.5 from 50K to ATH) – Adds more support at 79.3K
6. Negative Fibonacci Retracement (-0.618) – Lands right at the open gap, reinforcing this zone
   
7. Daily 233 EMA/MA – Sitting at 81.3K and 76.4K, further supporting this region
   
8. Key Support Zone: 80K - 78K – With all these confluences, this is a strong area for a potential long setup
   
9. Additional Support Zone: 88K - 86K – Another important region to watch for a bounce
   

Resistance Levels & Confluences

1. Psychological Resistance at 100K – A major battle zone between bulls and bears
   
2. Daily 21 EMA/MA (~99.5K - 101K) – A key resistance level that could cap any upward movement
   
3. 233 SMA/EMA on the 4H Timeframe – Now acting as resistance, adding pressure to the downside
   

Potential Trade Setups

• Long Setup #1: A potential entry from 88K - 86K
• Long Setup #2: 80K - 78K support zone with confirmation could present a high-probability trade
  

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin is facing strong resistance at 100K, with multiple technical indicators suggesting a possible pullback. While the bigger trend remains bullish, February might bring a correction, providing great long opportunities around the 88K - 86K and 80K - 78K region. Keep an eye on key support zones and look for confirmation signals before jumping into trades.

New Indicator Release

The 4H, Daily, and Weekly support zones seen on the charts are from my new indicator, which I released for free a few days ago. Feel free to check it out and incorporate it into your analysis.