UPDATED DETAIL OF RALLY CONCEPT BTC

29 set 2022

All in all it's not looking good for the bulls, but there is a case to be made for a stronger rally. It’s a tough upside down one but there’s a valid thesis. Basically BoE buying bonds now, pivoting… currency wars…energy crisis…. feds MAY pivot for the wrong reasons, bad reasons, namely because of systemic risk. In this case FEDS would be effectively short term capitulating on inflation and there could be a flight from a rapidly inflating dollar into equities, of which deflationary assets like Bitcoin could get crowded and blow off. It’s a marginal scenario but it’s in the cards as we see nations risking default, currencies like GBP and EURO collapsing, and an environment of negative real interest rates. It would ultimately be a disaster over all, but it could lead to a powerful relatively short lived push for Bitcoin.

Plunge protection rescued the global financial markets from a complete meltdown on Wednesday with margin calls and liquidation notices sent out on of UK’s long dated bond backed pension funds representing about 2/3 value of UK’s 1.5 TN Sterling Investment funds ….. Markets were possibly something like moments away from a 2008 scenario. (see below for CNBC coverage)

With inflation running rampant in developed nations and the bond markets getting routed:

- IF CPI Oct 13 shows US is finally cooling (NOT suggested by core PCE numbers today, labor market tightening rather than loosening and overall strong economic data points in the US)
- AND Feds decide to take a wiat and see with 50 bps to give other economies a chance to breathe in order to avoid system risks,

THEN we could see something like a short lived rally that could extend to end of year.

cnbc.com/amp/2022/09/29/pension-fund-panic-led-to-bank-of-englands-emergency-intervention.html

Some quick and easy fun to follow refernces:
youtu.be/F2NLsTIYvI0
youtu.be/SZCCzzo3Omg