BTC PA Report 28/Oct -> 01/Nov

# Bitcoin Technical Outlook – October 28, 2025

According to last week’s report, market momentum has unfolded in alignment with over **80% accuracy** relative to the projected macro trend up to **October 15**.
Prior to **October 13**, the market successfully confirmed a short-term trend and moved into a corrective phase — precisely as anticipated in my prior outlook — both within the **crypto sector** and the **broader financial market**.

On **October 23**, BTC saw an upward retracement that pulled price back into the required range, avoiding an early **trend-reversal confirmation** from uptrend to downtrend between **108K–114K**.
This move indicates that the market is **not yet ready to enter Phase 1** of a confirmed reversal and still reflects **broad optimism** toward both **crypto** and **BTC**, suggesting potential for a **stronger bullish leg** in the near future.

In addition, **positive macroeconomic developments**, including progress around **ETF approvals** and the **anticipated SEC rate-cut decisions**, could provide the fundamental backdrop for a **stronger bullish expansion**.
However, one must not forget — before major uptrends, markets often produce **even stronger shakeouts**, clearing liquidity and setting the stage for more aggressive waves ahead.

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## Current Market Assessment
*(Based on data and sentiment as of October 28, 2025 – 12:22 UTC+7)*

1. **BTC has exited its initial reversal confirmation phase**, but there remains a high probability of a **retest** of key support at **111K–112.5K (SP1)**.
A deeper correction could extend toward **102K–108K (SP2)**.
If the market maintains stability **above SP1 for at least one week**, we can expect consecutive bullish moves targeting a breakout through the **critical resistance zone at 114K–118K**.

2. At present, BTC is likely to **continue its corrective move**, ranging between **114.1K–110K** to **re-validate market strength** around these zones.
As marked on the chart, these **two pivotal levels** will dictate BTC’s short-term trajectory.
My bias still leans toward another **retest around 109K** before any sustained upward momentum resumes.

3. I expect a **major impulse wave** to emerge **between November 12–18, 2025**, likely following a period of accumulation and volatility expansion.
This phase should define the **next directional momentum**, as price will be testing or hovering near key **support/resistance levels** outlined above.

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## Key Influencing Factors

1. **Smart money inflows** remain cautious yet steady — there are **no signs of large-scale distribution**.
This suggests that institutional positioning still anticipates **further upside potential** for crypto assets.
2. **Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations** remain elevated, with markets widely pricing in an additional **cut cycle** ahead.
3. **Technical indicators** confirm that BTC has exited its short-term reversal setup, but **momentum remains insufficient** to sustain a prolonged uptrend without further structural validation.

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## Conclusion

1. **BTC must retest its nearest support zones** before confirming the next directional leg.
2. Expect a **significant breakout or breakdown** phase between **October 28 – November 20, 2025**, most likely during **November 12–18**, to define whether BTC will continue the uptrend or shift into a broader corrective cycle.
3. For the current trading week (**October 27 – November 1, 2025**), BTC is expected to **continue its corrective movement** within **114.1K–110K**.
Short-term **bullish attempts** may occur between **October 31 – November 2**.

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**Major Support:** 108K–110K
**Major Resistance:** 114K–116.8K